Ontario Election June 7, 2018

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Ciabatta2

Misfit wrote:

Re: Doug Fords Lack of a Costing Platform:

Dave Hudak pledged in his campaign for the last election that he would cut 10,000 civil service jobs. He tanked in the polls.

 So Doug Ford figured that he would be clever and say that he's going to cut $6 billion dollars and it wouldn't cost anybody any jobs. 

He can't come up with any specific figures because it can't be done without sacrificing jobs and government services.

To me, issues like this one are things that are the final nudge toward or away from a candidate for many voters, often more confirming their initial suspicions/impressions of a candidate - e.g. "1.4 billion in the wrong column, LOL those NDP, they can't even add!  I knew it!" kind of thing.

But in this case, I think Doug Ford isn't someone that people are on the fence about, so I'm not sure the platform issue hurts him.  I think he's right that a really big chunk of Ontarians either don't care for platforms (because they only half get implemented) and/or don't trust the Liberals numbers.  If you're voting for Ford, you're not doing it because he's got his shit together.  You're electing him to on an emotional appeal to show your distrust in the system, or to just smash things.

Doug Ford knows this, and knows why people vote for him. He may, however, have overestimated the ability of his appeal to win a comprehensive majority.

I think the platform issue is only an issue for those who were never going to vote for him anyway.  Although polling on this could prove otherwise.

NorthReport
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E Day one week to go

NorthReport

Also what is happening with that 407 police investigation?

http://warrenkinsella.com/2018/05/about-that-huge-huge-globe-investigative-story-read-it/

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jerrym

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Misfit wrote:

Re: Doug Fords Lack of a Costing Platform:

Dave Hudak pledged in his campaign for the last election that he would cut 10,000 civil service jobs. He tanked in the polls.

 So Doug Ford figured that he would be clever and say that he's going to cut $6 billion dollars and it wouldn't cost anybody any jobs. 

He can't come up with any specific figures because it can't be done without sacrificing jobs and government services.

To me, issues like this one are things that are the final nudge toward or away from a candidate for many voters, often more confirming their initial suspicions/impressions of a candidate - e.g. "1.4 billion in the wrong column, LOL those NDP, they can't even add!  I knew it!" kind of thing.

But in this case, I think Doug Ford isn't someone that people are on the fence about, so I'm not sure the platform issue hurts him.  I think he's right that a really big chunk of Ontarians either don't care for platforms (because they only half get implemented) and/or don't trust the Liberals numbers.  If you're voting for Ford, you're not doing it because he's got his shit together.  You're electing him to on an emotional appeal to show your distrust in the system, or to just smash things.

Doug Ford knows this, and knows why people vote for him. He may, however, have overestimated the ability of his appeal to win a comprehensive majority.

I think the platform issue is only an issue for those who were never going to vote for him anyway.  Although polling on this could prove otherwise.

I agree that Ford voters are unlikely to be deterred by the lack of a platform but those slightly leaning in his direction, or leaning Liberal, or fully undecided might be deterred from voting PC by fear of what the lack of a platform means in terms of a secret PC agenda. If this occurs, it won't be a lot of voters, but considering how close the polls, it could be the difference between victory and defeat. 

 

NorthReport

This doesn't look good for the Liberals!

FollowFollow @Dleebosh

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Derek Leebosh Retweeted Allison Smith

Just what the Ontario Liberals need a week before the election - another big story about corruption that implicates the premier.

Derek Leebosh added,

Allison Smith @QueensParkToday

Globe: In 2013 Glen Murray tried to bully then Mayor of Caledon into rezoning land for residential development to please developer Solmar. Wynne, who received a $20K donation to her leadership bid from Solmar, knew…

 

https://twitter.com/Dleebosh/status/1002197500693024776

NorthReport

Andrea Horwath promises rent registry to combat ‘renovictions’

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/31/andrea-horwath-promis...

Mighty Middle

Sue-Ann Levy (Toronto Sun) went after Andrea Horwath this morning calling her a weak leader - to her face! They then get into a verbal sparring match

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0fJFfYOi5E

josh

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sue-Ann Levy (Toronto Sun) went after Andrea Horwath this morning calling her a weak leader - to her face! They then get into a verbal sparring match

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0fJFfYOi5E

A POS from a POS paper.

NorthReport

Andrea Horwath NDP Change For The Better Rally in Toronto

Sunday, June 3rd, 10:30am - 12:30pm
Sheraton Centre Toronto Hotel, Grand Ballroom
123 Queen Street W.
Toronto, Ontario M5H 2M9

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Is 2018 the Ontario NDP's best opinion environment since 1990?

http://onpulse.ca/blog/research-note-is-2018-the-ontario-ndps-best-opini...

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With NDP and PCs circling, Liberals look to save what they can in eastern Ontario

PCs were poised to gain from Liberal slide in the region - but the NDP could complicate things

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-eastern-ontario-1.4685860

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Mighty Middle

N/A

Pogo Pogo's picture

I didn't see a specific reference to Liberals, just a "we are the best choice" statement.

NorthReport

I would have thought Doug Ford’s support for Trump would be the perfect storm for Ford after Trump’s attack on Canada’s economy

josh

That just happened yesterday.  Depends how much the other two parties make of it.

NorthReport

This is what could happen after Ontario goes to the polls

http://theconversation.com/this-is-what-could-happen-after-ontario-goes-...

bekayne

Well. Conrad Black's endorsed Ford so I guess it's all over now.

Mighty Middle

bekayne wrote:

Well. Conrad Black's endorsed Ford so I guess it's all over now.

National Post has just endorsed Doug Ford as well, this despite not having a platform.

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progressive17 progressive17's picture

No one can accuse Conrad Black or the National Post of shame.

Ciabatta2

For all the St Kathleen going round the media (another one today!) I think she has been one of the more duplicitous Premiers in a while.  Davis was all about compromise and owned it when it deviated from his party and principles.  Peterson was full of it but that was kind of his appeal.  Rae did a 180 but he stayed the course and went down with his ship for his shift in direction.  Harris wreaked havoc and was unrepentant.  McGuinty picked a lane and stayed there (his failure was ultimately deviating from his persona as the "hard choices" Premier when he nuked the gas plants).

Wynne has been all over the place.  THe "care" angle, the moral high ground, the social justice premier, the apologizing - all were just too late and incoherent with her time in government: Thiebault, Oliver, hydro, Green Energy couldn't be erased with the late late conversion to $15 an hour and universal pre-K and half-baked pharma/dentalcare and throwing her union friends under the bus - because they were just not consistent with someone that had been in government since 2003, that sat at the table for e health, and the gas plants, and voting against faster minimum wage increases, and funding services below inflation ... resisting the moves that she pounced on in the last two years.

Despite the unfair shakes she has gotten, I think her duplicity has been one of the reasons for her downfall that is squarely on her.  You can either tout your principled nature or be willing to do anything to stay in power.  Not both.

Only someone so convinced that they could do no wrong could co-opt a slogan used against themselves only six month earlier and think it believable as her party's election mantra.  She bought into her own hype and the end result was patronizing.

There are many things she can be proud of, but she should be a little bit sorry for the things that she failed on. Sorry not sorry is not contrition.  It is hubris. 

SocialJustice101

So the Star has endorsed the ONDP, and advocates strategic voting for the ONDP.

But weren't you saying the Star has "ties" to the Liberals and is basically a Liberal propaganda machine??

gadar

SocialJustice101 wrote:

So the Star has endorsed the ONDP, and advocates strategic voting for the ONDP.

But weren't you saying the Star has "ties" to the Liberals and is basically a Liberal propaganda machine??

Not any more. Not until this election is over anyway. It will soon be back to being a Liberal mouthpiece. Just like all the polls are going to become biased on June 8 or when if they show Liberal uptick, whichever happens first. Until then the polls are not biased.

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josh

Quite similar to Trump and U.S. governors like Scott Walker.  Except he can get in with less than 40% of the vote.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

So...Can Horwath come up with something between now and Thursday that can make a significant difference?  At this point, assuming the seat projections are anywhere close to accurate, we're looking at the possibility of one of the worst "wrong winner" results in recent FPTP history.

SocialJustice101

The NDP needs to go on the attack against Ford HARD.   Attack ads please.   The more negative the better.  Use Ford's clips if possible.  Just don't tell a story, PROVE it.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

That's true.  They need ads with blue collar people calling him out.  People in his old neighborhood(there have to be some folks there who were never in love with the Ford family).

SocialJustice101

Use clips of Ford's own words if possible.   Something that makes him sound far right on social issues and other matters.

NorthReport

When does the blackout period start? And does that apply here as well?

NorthReport

Statement from Horwath. Surprisingly blunt.

https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/1002948373618425856

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I wonder if it's worth buying time for a province-wide address by Andrea.  She's gotta do SOMETHING to move the needle.

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Statement from Horwath. Surprisingly blunt.

https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/1002948373618425856

Well, why SHOULD she go easy on Wynne, when Wynne(sorry for the alliteration there) is STILL running ads attacking the NDP?  

NorthReport

Wynne is not the sharpest tool in the crib. Most of Liberal support has already left, but the balance of the Liberal support will now plummet to perhaps 10%, if that, by Thursday. I'd now be surprised to see the Liberals win even 1 seat.

NorthReport

The folks that voted for the Liberals in the advance polls are going to be really choked now!

NorthReport

Our polling finds few are afraid of an NDP government. I think telling people “I’m done, we can’t win” signals, if you want to stop Ford, I can’t help.

https://twitter.com/Colettod/status/1002945862807453696

NorthReport

Kathleen Wynne loses Kathleen Wynne endorsement

https://twitter.com/TheBeaverton/status/1002981516677406720

WWWTT

Misfit wrote:

I live in Saskatchewan and the NDP governed for 50 years in our history. With the exception of Manitoba and BC and perhaps the Territories, The NDP cannot survive  more than one term.

So the other provinces have this scenario where they get elected on an anti-other party shit storm and only last one term in office.

The Ontario NDP has a very dedicated core support base and these people are fantastic. But outside that core of support, you have a large mass of undecided voters who look to the Liberals and the Conservatives and only consider the NDP in very rare circumstances. 

 Therefore the NDP has been more of a reactionary party to victory and it  has to learn how to get reelected where undecided voters get a serious look that this is a very legitimate alternative to the other two mainline parties.

back during the days of the CCF the politics was very polarized but people who supported the CCF in large numbers were voting for something and that for something kept getting them re-elected.

Ontario has to learn to see the NDP as a positive choice for progressive change.

AND GET RE-ELECTED!!!

Your original comment that I referred to as “garbage” was a common phrase from the corporate media and right wingers in Ontario during the 1990’s. This was to discredit any merit and popularity socialism would have or was getting in Ontario  

Right now what’s going on in Canada is that many come from Communist China and India or Eastern Europe etc etc  

in other words places not traditional western countries   This is why typical western anti socialism corporate media is having no effect on this huge block of voters! They simply know that the corporate media is bullshit! And the more the corporate media attacks with their stupid rubbish, the more inclined the new block of voters will vote for socialism!

This isn’t rocket science 

if anything this is about the never ending complaining Ontario baby boomers that think that it’s all about them and their self interests fading away into nothingness 

And I can’t wait until the baby boomers materialism is buried and laid to rest once and for all 

 

 

NorthReport

5/5 - 31% of Ontarians are undecided on "Best Premier", including 38% of Women, 38% of 18-34 and 35% in the 905 region. There are still plenty of votes to be won

https://twitter.com/mario_canseco/status/1002916510065520641

NorthReport

Ujjal Dosangh basically did the same thing in BC and the NDP were wiped off the political map and lost official party status Did you notice how silent Ford has been over Wynne’s comments This is perfect timing for Andrea’s big rally tomorrow morning in Toronto This Wynne announcement can only help the NDP Hopefully Andrea will reach out to Liberal supporters tomorrow with some empathy for them

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