Ontario Election June 7, 2018

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NorthReport

Just watched the Strategy Session on CTV's Power Play - pretty brutal on the Liberals and their future.

NorthReport

Police investigating PC candidate over threat allegation

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/06/04/police-investigating-...

progressive17 progressive17's picture

NorthReport

Seriously, if you were a Liberal supporter, would you waste your vote now on a Liberal? And what about those Liberal supporters that have already voted - they must be pissed! 

There is a reason Doug Ford is not commenting on the Wynne Liberals train wreck.  

As was just discussed on CBC Power Politics, Wynne's capitulation will probably benefit the NDP the most as the 2nd choice for a high percentage of Liberals is the NDP. 

In this election, only the NDP can stop Doug Ford - what's difficult to understand about that!

SocialJustice101

Seriously, is anyone agruing with you on that point?

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Now with this lawsuit by Rob's family, original Ford Nation people are going to feel much betrayed. If the charges are true, Doug is a heel.

For whatever reason, Rob was much loved, and not because he did things like that. These kinds of personal issues are dear to many right-wing voters, many of whom may not bother to show up.

On top of that, the Toronto Star has ordered all Liberals to vote NDP.

Looks to me like the polling gap is going to widen beyond statistical significance to a momentum into voting day. The Conservative ideological vote which is generally wealthy people of European descent will be squeezed by millennials on the young side, and pensioners worried about health care outcomes on the old side.

Because of Wynne's activism on pensions, CPP had to give a better deal. Ford will not continue this activism, but Horwath probably will. Horwath has explicitly stated she wants to end hallway medicine, which is also a great concern for Ontario.

This one seems done like dinner. But, you never know...

SocialJustice101

progressive17, you are giving the Ford Nation people too much credit.   Just like Trump voters, they just won't care.    They prefer to believe in the fairy tale Ford tells them.  So Ford is a bad business manager?   Ah what, he's for the people!   Didn't you get that?

progressive17 progressive17's picture

I would still like to believe there are people who will say "fuck you" but still have some sense of right and wrong.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

She could be trying to make sure she'll be appointed to the Senate no matter which pro-Senate party wins in 2019.  She can tell Justin "I fought for my party to the end", and she could tell Scheer "I put you guys over the top in Ontario".

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

progressive17, you are giving the Ford Nation people too much credit.   Just like Trump voters, they just won't care.    They prefer to believe in the fairy tale Ford tells them.  So Ford is a bad business manager?   Ah what, he's for the people!   Didn't you get that?

You are probably right, but I have a bit of doubt because of the fact that Rob Ford was the one they really loved, and Doug is only their second choice. So, they might react to a betrayal of Rob's widow and children as more of a problem than it would be if the victim were some member of the lefty elite.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

progressive17 wrote:

No fair...The Skipper SAVED everybody he was responsible for.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Ok!  I can't count that high. How many police investigations and lawsuits are racked up against Ontario PC party candidates? 

bekayne

progressive17 wrote:

Now with this lawsuit by Rob's family, original Ford Nation people are going to feel much betrayed. If the charges are true, Doug is a heel.

He's also a heel if they're not true.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

progressive17 wrote:

No fair...The Skipper SAVED everybody he was responsible for.

The Doppelganger is always the evil one :D

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Best case scenario...a chunk of Ford Nation voters vote for the Libertarians or the Trillium Party or the Stop Sex-Ed Party in the ridings they're contesting.  That could cost Ford some marginal seats, couldn't it?

NorthReport

So...Doug Ford has been sued by his late brother's widow for ripping her off, has a star policeman candidate under investigation for uttering threats, and parked his campaign bus in a handicapped spot, IN THE PAST 24 HOURS!

https://twitter.com/kvonbling/status/1003805159745392640

NorthReport

Looks like Doug Ford is now panicking going from almost no riding visits to 4 ridings tomorrow. After what came out today do they really want him out front like that?

NorthReport

An NDP surge in London region? 'I sense a lot of that'

 

The last time Southwestern Ontarians voted NDP in big numbers, they took the Liberals to the woodshed.

New Democrat Leader Andrea Horwath, who blitzed the region Monday, is hoping to tap some of that same anger that propelled Bob Rae into office nearly 30 years ago, when voters threw out a Liberal government that cynically called an early election just before a brutal recession hit.

And at least one prominent area politician, Sarnia Mayor Mike Bradley, says he senses his area is a riding “in play,” with the NDP poised to pick up Liberal support.

“The Liberal vote here is on the endangered species list,” said Bradley.

The question, with two days left to go until the election, is whether a Rae-style win – or even a few NDP gains – is in the cards for Horwath in the London region, which has been bedrock Progressive Conservative turf through several election cycles.

http://lfpress.com/news/local-news/ndps-horwath-blitzes-london-battlegro...

NorthReport

NDP star candidate Eleanor Fast is ready to talk about climate change, but no one's asking

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/06/04/news/ndp-star-candidate-elea...

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Michael Moriarity wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

progressive17, you are giving the Ford Nation people too much credit.   Just like Trump voters, they just won't care.    They prefer to believe in the fairy tale Ford tells them.  So Ford is a bad business manager?   Ah what, he's for the people!   Didn't you get that?

You are probably right, but I have a bit of doubt because of the fact that Rob Ford was the one they really loved, and Doug is only their second choice. So, they might react to a betrayal of Rob's widow and children as more of a problem than it would be if the victim were some member of the lefty elite.

Best case scenario:  a ton of 'em decide to vote for the Trillium Party candidate in their riding

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Lifelong New Democrat excited to vote NDP for the first time(The Beaverton) 

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2018/06/lifelong-new-democrat-excited-to-vo...

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

The visuals for this campaign have been among the worst I can recall seeing. See excitement, energy, and momentum here? Nope. Compare this to what you’ll see from Horwath barnstorming today. Pollsters say still ahead but the visuals show momentum to the NDP.

 

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1004005857879715841

NorthReport

Kathleen Wynne Wants You To Elect Doug Ford

The best case outcome for the Liberals now is for the Conservatives to win, so the NDP doesn't become legitimized in government. December 1979, Pierre Trudeau had resigned as Liberal leader and was set to retire. Then, an unexpected election was called. After some Hamlet-like dithering, Pierre agreed to fight on.

Having already retired and, recognizing his unpopularity, Trudeau told reporters this would definitely be his "last campaign." This sparked a joke from Prime Minister Joe Clark, who said Trudeau's slogan should be, "Vote for Me and I'll Quit."

Of course, a few weeks later, it was the Liberals laughing, because the gambit worked. Trudeau won a majority, and Clark was out.

Is that what Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne hoped for by conceding the Ontario election five days before the vote? Does she plan to win a majority by promising not to be Premier?

Not quite, but the play is similar. Her line now is something like, "Vote for me and I promise to lose."

Sounds peculiar, doesn't it? It does, but there's a method to this madness.

Having sunk to the bottom under the weight of Wynne's concrete-block like unpopularity, the Liberals face the prospect of winning few — maybe zero — seats in the election. Wynne sees this precisely one year later than anyone else in Ontario who was paying attention.

At this point, it's a little late to resign — I bet she mulled it over — so this is the next best thing. Wynne is telling people that she will not be Premier after June 7. Somebody else will.

But of course, we already all know Wynne will lose. So why is she talking about it? The Liberals at this point have different goals than forming government after the election:

  • They want a new government that is easy for them to attack and campaign against
  • They want the largest contingent of Liberal Members of Provincial Parliament elected possible
  • They want to remain the preferred option for "progressive" voters in the next election.

You see, all of this is about the Liberals' preferred way to lose.

The best case outcome for the Liberals now is for the Conservatives to win

Wynne had a message for voters while conceding-in-advance. It went like this. Read it, but keep in mind something important — it's basically false.

"By voting Liberal you can keep the next government, Conservative or NDP, from acting too extreme — one way or the other. By voting Liberal you can keep the next government, Conservative or NDP, accountable to you. By voting Liberal you can keep Doug Ford — and the NDP, from having a blank cheque."

It's true that by voting Liberal, you will take a vote away from Ford and from the New Democratic Party. But that's not what matters on June 7. What matters isn't how many votes anyone gets, but who gets the most votes in each riding.

The Ontario election is actually 124 local elections, held at the same time. That's how our parliamentary democracy works. In the majority of those ridings today, Ford's Conservatives hold the lead or, are close. And the only party that can beat them in those ridings is, you guessed it, the NDP.

If you take Wynne's advice and vote Liberal because she promises to disappear, you might elect a Liberal — though probably not — but you will almost certainly help elect a Conservative.

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/david-law/kathleen-wynne-doug-ford-ontario...

NorthReport

I am looking forward to Thursday evening when hopefully the lying Liberals will be wiped off the political map in Ontario.

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

I am looking forward to Thursday evening when hopefully the lying Liberals will be wiped off the political map in Ontario.

I guess you do not live in Ontario.

The chance of a Ford majority means that there is nothing much to look forward to unless the NDP can stop him.

It is frankly stupid to suggest that the Liberals being replaced by Ford Conservatives is a benefit to the province.

NorthReport

 

Obviously I would prefer an NDP government, but seeing as it appears that the PCs will win a majority government, the one small consolation I will have on Thursday evening will be to see the lying Liberals wiped off the political map. It will probably be the only good news of the evening!

SocialJustice101

Riiiiiiight....

NorthReport

That's a good word to describe the Liberals!

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Riiiiiiight....

SocialJustice101

Or is it a much better word to describe you?

progressive17 progressive17's picture

I am not going to write the NDP off yet.

- Big turnouts for NDP rallies
- The Valerie Plante factor of Millennials coming out of the woodwork
- Healthcare uncertainty for seniors
- Unions going from Liberal to NDP, which will be very good news for NDP GOTV.
- Demoralization of PCPO GOTV organizers due to recent revelations of Ford Family Values. #IBelieveRenata - which I do not think the polls are going to catch.
- Lack of apparent business skills by Foug Dord - ditto.

SocialJustice101

I do think the NDP still has a chance, since IVR polls historically overestimate right-wing support.  

Sean in Ottawa

Well since the Liberals are not in it at all that will not be news on election night.

If the NDP wins and Ford loses that will be a great night.

If Ford wins a majority there will be no consolation for the people who live in this province.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Oh, and I should have said that if you had no university degree, but you had become a successful social activist who had caused some knowable waves, you would be just as qualified as a businessperson with no university degree. In both cases, the success should be verifiable, as would be a person's academic qualifications.

SocialJustice101

If you think Wynne is a corporatist, just you wait for Ford.    If he wins, you can completely forget about any labour rights, consumer protections, etc.   Once again, the NDP would have LESS power as an official opposition than a third party which occassionally aligns with government.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Well since the Liberals are not in it at all that will not be news on election night.

If the NDP wins and Ford loses that will be a great night.

If Ford wins a majority there will be no consolation for the people who live in this province.

Agreed.

Sean in Ottawa

progressive17 wrote:

Oh, and I should have said that if you had no university degree, but you had become a successful social activist who had caused some knowable waves, you would be just as qualified as a businessperson with no university degree. In both cases, the success should be verifiable, as would be a person's academic qualifications.

A University degree may be an efficient way to learn knowledge and it certainly exposes a person to unique knowledge but it is not at all the only way to get knowledge or be qualified.

Running a business is qualification for running a business. It also may provide some unique general knowledge but it is not a demonstration of expertise needed to run a government.

Running a business given to you is also not the same as starting one.

SocialJustice101

And if you believe his sister-in-law, Doug Ford mismanaged the family business and lost millions.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
And if you believe his sister-in-law, Doug Ford mismanaged the family business and lost millions.

But as Premier, he'd have people for that stuff.

How many times did Trump go bankrupt?

SocialJustice101

Trump had 6 bankruptcies.  His administration is also a train-wreck.   Most of his people are unqualified and don't stay with his administration for long, because he keeps blaming them for his mistakes.

As for Doug Ford, I've read that he has a reputation as a bully in the business word.  I'm surprised this didn't come up during the campaign.

NorthReport
NorthReport

How Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals secretly helped kill the Scarborough LRT

https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2018/06/05/how-kathleen-wynnes-li...

NorthReport

If those last minute polling results are accurate no wonder Andrea went to 8 different locations today

gadar

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

I am looking forward to Thursday evening when hopefully the lying Liberals will be wiped off the political map in Ontario.

I guess you do not live in Ontario.

The chance of a Ford majority means that there is nothing much to look forward to unless the NDP can stop him.

It is frankly stupid to suggest that the Liberals being replaced by Ford Conservatives is a benefit to the province.

Not for you. And Liberals being replaced by Cons has always been the obsession. The rise of NDP is only cheered for as long as it helps in obtaining that goal.

You have been around long enough to have figured that out. And you are not a hyper partisan who thinks that the enemy of your enemy is your friend. 

NorthReport
NorthReport
Sean in Ottawa

Even when Liberals are strong Devenport is an NDP target. This is extreme dishonesty from the Liberals. In other words about what we have come to expect.

SocialJustice101

How old is that poster though?   Perhaps it was produced at the beginning of the campaign when many pollsters still had the Liberals 2nd.

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