Ontario Election June 7, 2018

972 posts / 0 new
Last post
Notalib

Today, the NDP has both Bernie and Corbyn as previous examples that running populist left wing campaigns can succeed. Sadly, these lessons are not put in practice. This election in Ontario could, indeed should, have been won by the NDP. A total Liberal collapse coupled with a scandal ridden PC party limping to the finish line of a never ending clusterfuck of a campaign whose leader is most famous for being the tag-along brother of a crackhead was the perfect storm for a NDP victory. Never in all my years have I seen a better circumstance for a NDP victory. They simply needed to offer stuff people would vote for. But nah, they let the perverted so called "populism" of Doug "The Dick" Ford capture not only the trend of "populism" but also the swing vote and even inspire new votes; whilst they carried ouut another empty shell of a "modern social democrat" campaign.

God knows the cons need as much help as they can get to win elections, they are even wiped out in their hometown of the Lone Tar Province, but it is really getting tiring watching new democrats carry their water - especially when like here, all they can do is continue to blame Liberals for their failings versus simply coming out from under the yoke of the right leaning party apparatchik and showing some guts in the fight for the people of this country.

Anyway, probably should have waited til tomorrow to say this, as there is a slim possibility despite a lack lustre performance Howarth could pull it off, as Notley went from chair of the coffee club to Premier overnight, but I am not holding my breathe. I mean even with the "strategic vote" squarely in their corner it does not seem like she is going to pull it off.

SocialJustice101

Ahem.... Bernie and Corbyn did not exactly succeed.    Both lost their election campaigns.

josh

I realize that.  Although they still may end up winning.  Hence my comment after that. 

NorthReport

Bingo!

Let's stop the NDP from stopping Doug Ford

 

 

https://twitter.com/jessehawken/status/1004727008230813696

Pogo Pogo's picture

So the NDP doubles their support and all people can say is that they failed because they didn't do better.  Ford took a massive lead and limped to the finish line. Ford was crushing the Liberals and the NDP came from 3rd place to make a battle out of it.  That says something.

The response to Ford is not populism - that is playing to his strength.  The NDP reached the numbers they got from portraying a measured approach with a very progressive agenda compared to the other parties. If they had tried a populist campaign they would have been stuck in third place.  

 

NorthReport

Warning: Liberal commercial!

 

Ontario Election 2018: How to beat Doug Ford in Toronto

 

https://nowtoronto.com/news/ontario-election-2018-andrea-horwath-kathlee...

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Actually if Ford wins, Liberals will be the ones to blame, and NDPers will remember that in the next federal election 

http://rabble.ca/news/2018/06/liberal-ads-attacking-ndp-could-help-ford’s-pcs

Not everything can be blamed on the Ontario Liberals.

Wynne has admitted she can't win the election.

Part of the reason Ford may beat Horwath has to do with the fact that the NDP has trouble appealing to Conservative voters.

And as several editorials today point out (eg. the one in The Globe & Mail), many Ontarians aren't happy with any of the options.  They are tired of Wynne, suspicious of Ford, and not inspired by Horwath.

Horwath has run an okay campaign without making any major mistakes, but she hasn't ignited enough passion in the voters the way Jack Layton or Justin Trudeau did.

A bit of Corbyn-like passion and enthusiasm might have helped.  The best chance of stopping Ford was always going to be to inspire energy behind a positive, inclusive vision of Ontario...a healing passion to fight a wounding passion.

At some point, the NDP has got to let go of its irrational fear of being exciting.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Ahem.... Bernie and Corbyn did not exactly succeed.    Both lost their election campaigns.

Winning an election is not the only measure of success.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Pogo wrote:

So the NDP doubles their support and all people can say is that they failed because they didn't do better.  Ford took a massive lead and limped to the finish line. Ford was crushing the Liberals and the NDP came from 3rd place to make a battle out of it.  That says something.

The response to Ford is not populism - that is playing to his strength.  The NDP reached the numbers they got from portraying a measured approach with a very progressive agenda compared to the other parties. If they had tried a populist campaign they would have been stuck in third place.  

 

It's not "populism" simply to inspire enthusiasm.  Ford's appeal was the illusion that he cared about "the little guy".   Why not have the NDP be the party that ACTUALLY passionately challenges the little guy.  The Dippers are never going to make significant breakthroughs running as the party of bland safety, of "respectability" for respectability's sake.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Sanders didn't do well with enthusiasm or populism. What works is authenticity. 

NorthReport
NorthReport

No one wanted to touch this hot potato. Too bad!

https://globalnews.ca/news/4247095/ontario-separate-schools-election/

Sean in Ottawa

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Actually if Ford wins, Liberals will be the ones to blame, and NDPers will remember that in the next federal election 

From today's Research Co. poll:

https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Tables_Ontario_06Jun201...

17% of those who voted NDP in the 2014 election intend to vote PC

18% of those who voted NDP in the 2015 federal election intend to vote PC

Quite out of context -- similar numbers exist for all parties. They also raise interesting questions -- like it reports 33% of NDP voters would now vote Liberal. think about this. that would mean that alomst half of the NDP voters in the last election would not vote Liberal. If that sounds ridiculous and not believable it is becuase it is.

I suspect that there are a good number who play the polls being cute trying to show momentum. Otherwise this is nonsense or an issue with methodology.

Debater

It will be interesting to see what happens in Guelph.

Long-time Liberal incumbent Liz Sandals has retired.

And now there is a battle going on between the Greens and the NDP for the anti-Ford vote.

Polling shows the Greens are in 1st place in Guelph, with the NDP in 2nd, and the Conservatives 3rd.  Liberals down in 4th.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-historic-win-within-reach-for-ontario-green-party-leader-mike/

Earlier this week there was a war of words between Green Leader Mike Schreiner and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath.

Horwath came to Guelph and told people to vote NDP.  Schreiner released a statement saying that Horwath & the local NDP candidate are misrepresenting the race in Guelph and that the Greens are not a wasted vote and can win.

Will this argument between the Greens & the NDP help the Conservatives slip through in Guelph?

https://gpo.ca/2018/06/05/the-people-of-guelph-have-the-right-to-make-their-own-decision/

Pondering

Some posts sound like the election has already been called for Ford. What time to actual results start coming in?

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Polls close at 9. CBC News Network will be covering it, as I am sure so will be CBC Radio.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Pogo wrote:

So the NDP doubles their support and all people can say is that they failed because they didn't do better.  Ford took a massive lead and limped to the finish line. Ford was crushing the Liberals and the NDP came from 3rd place to make a battle out of it.  That says something.

The response to Ford is not populism - that is playing to his strength.  The NDP reached the numbers they got from portraying a measured approach with a very progressive agenda compared to the other parties. If they had tried a populist campaign they would have been stuck in third place.  

 

I agree with Pogo. The ONDP has done amazingly well in this campaign, and it is mostly because of their platform, which is clearly left wing, and which emphasizes a small number of easily understood specific programs that will immediately improve the daily life of millions of people.

Despite the polls, I think this may well be enough to carry them to a majority. If there is a significantly higher than usual turnout, that will be why. People have heard the message, and decided there might be a reason to vote after all. Unsurprisingly, the media have not portrayed this as a campaign about issues, so a lot of people are not noticing that it is the NDP platform that has them this close to victory.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

One of the indicators of NDP strength will be lots of kids and baby strollers in the polling stations with their Millennial parents.

Debater

Pondering wrote:

Some posts sound like the election has already been called for Ford. What time to actual results start coming in?

 

Polls close at 9pm ET.

Here's the Election Results link for tonight:

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/results/

 

Debater

Advance voter turnout jumps almost 19% from last Ontario election

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/advance-voting-ontario-1.4692174

SocialJustice101

Ken Burch wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Ahem.... Bernie and Corbyn did not exactly succeed.    Both lost their election campaigns.

Winning an election is not the only measure of success.

That's what Trump, Ford and Scheer would like to you believe.

NorthReport

There is not a single person who predicted that Ontario’s 2018 election campaign would unfold quite this way

https://twitter.com/CBCQueensPark/status/1004696579322798080

SocialJustice101

The historically Lib-vs-Con 905 area usually decides both provincial and federal elections.   Did the NDP make inroads in the 905?   If not, they can't win the election.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Almost 20% bump in turnout is YUGE!

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Ahem.... Bernie and Corbyn did not exactly succeed.    Both lost their election campaigns.

Winning an election is not the only measure of success.

That's what Trump, Ford and Scheer would like to you believe.

Oh, come on. We aren't talking about "moral victories" by hopeless candidates, we're talking about near misses which may become wins next time around. Currently, Sanders is by far the most popular politician in the U.S. If he runs in 2020, he will win the Dem nomination easily, and beat Trump by at least 10 points. While the polls for Labour have been up and down in the last year, no one doubts that Corbyn has an excellent chance to become PM after the next election.

Debater

SocialJustice101 wrote:

The historically Lib-vs-Con 905 area usually decides both provincial and federal elections.   Did the NDP make inroads in the 905?   If not, they can't win the election.

Yes, I posted this above.

The 905 is usually a critical area to win if a party wants to win Ontario.

In his book, "Building the Orange Wave", Brad Lavigne says winning the 905 is necessary for the NDP to win government.  He was talking more about the Federal scene, but it applies to the provincial scene as well.

Pondering

IPSO poll results for Global:https://globalnews.ca/video/4225593/poll-shows-almost-half-of-ndp-voters...

  • 54% are not sure who to vote for.
  • 66% of Conservative voters are sure.
  • 38% of Liberal voters are sure.
  • 31% of NDP voters are sure so that vote is considered the most volatile.
  • 64% are voting  for the party they like best.
  • 37% say they are strategically casting their vote to stop another party.

I think that is good news for the NDP.

 

Sean in Ottawa

progressive17 wrote:

Almost 20% bump in turnout is YUGE!

Sorry but absolutely not. This is a bump in turnout for advance polls. Huge would be a bump in turnout overall not just more people voting in advance rather than on the day.

NorthReport

Sad trying to deceive voters like this!

Some Ontario Liberals ditch party's red colour on campaign signs, flyers

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/some-ontario-liberals-ditch-party-s-red-co...

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
“The signs are a call to action to say, if you don’t want Doug Ford in the premier’s office, then I need your support on June 7 so I can do that,” Fraser told CTV Ottawa.

Huh.  He's going to stop Rob Ford?

Maybe Mr. Fraser doesn't understand the riding system that we use?

He also neglected to mention why the signs were yellow.  If he wants to defeat the Liberal candidate in his riding, and HELP to defeat Ford, that's great.  But why is he ashamed of his own party??

I have to wonder whether the Liberal Party funded those yellow signs.  A bit of a mis-branding, if so.

NorthReport

Anyone going to the Hamilton Convention Centre tonite?

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/ontario-ndp-leader-andrea-horwath-hopes-vo...

Debater

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
“The signs are a call to action to say, if you don’t want Doug Ford in the premier’s office, then I need your support on June 7 so I can do that,” Fraser told CTV Ottawa.

Huh.  He's going to stop Rob Ford?

Maybe Mr. Fraser doesn't understand the riding system that we use?

He also neglected to mention why the signs were yellow.  If he wants to defeat the Liberal candidate in his riding, and HELP to defeat Ford, that's great.  But why is he ashamed of his own party??

I have to wonder whether the Liberal Party funded those yellow signs.  A bit of a mis-branding, if so.

 

Fraser is one of a small number of Liberals that does actually have a chance to beat the PC's in his riding.

Ottawa South also has a very strong Liberal ground game - one of the strongest in Ontario.

So Fraser is not wrong in saying that the NDP will probably finish 3rd in Ottawa South.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Fraser is one of a small number of Liberals that does actually have a chance to beat the PC's in his riding.

Did you mean that he does actually have a chance to beat ONE PC in his riding?

Quote:
So Fraser is not wrong in saying that the NDP will probably finish 3rd in Ottawa South.

I hope that's not his idea of beating Ford.

Debater

Mr. Magoo, this whole election has come down to which candidate has the best chance in each riding to beat a Ford PCer.

That's what progressive voters are trying to figure out across the province.

The Liberals & NDP are both doing this.

And so are the Greens, when it comes to Guelph.

The fewer Ford PCers that get elected, the less likely Ford is to become Premier.

As low as the Liberals are in the polls, there are still a small number of ridings where they are likely to be in a better position to beat the PC's.

Eg. Ottawa-Vanier, Don Valley East, Vaughan-Woodbridge, etc.  And Ottawa South is also on that list.  And perhaps Orleans.  These are ridings where the NDP probably can't win.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Sad trying to deceive voters like this!

Some Ontario Liberals ditch party's red colour on campaign signs, flyers

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/some-ontario-liberals-ditch-party-s-red-co...

It is really dumb because it makes you look like an Independent, and will make you ignored. At least if they flew their party colours, they might have a shot at keeping the deposit.

Pondering

Debater wrote:

Eg. Ottawa-Vanier, Don Valley East, Vaughan-Woodbridge, etc.  And Ottawa South is also on that list.  And perhaps Orleans.  These are ridings where the NDP probably can't win.

I just watched a couple of interviews with new NDP voters in Fraser's riding. They seem to take the yellow signs as an aknowledgement that he is losing.

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Debater wrote:

Eg. Ottawa-Vanier, Don Valley East, Vaughan-Woodbridge, etc.  And Ottawa South is also on that list.  And perhaps Orleans.  These are ridings where the NDP probably can't win.

I just watched a couple of interviews with new NDP voters in Fraser's riding. They seem to take the yellow signs as an aknowledgement that he is losing.

They should not. This is something the Liberals do here often. I don't think it means anything.

I think the big organizational push here may have saved it for them -- since they showed they had the strongest ground game. The PCs had the most signs here until a couple days ago.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

(self-delete.  Responded to wrong thing here).

SocialJustice101

The Cons crushed the NDP in the 905 belt.   You can't win without the 905.    Hopefully Deepers will one day understand the value of compromise and incremental progress.   Rome wasn't built in a day. 

Todrick of Chat...

The NDP sure blew this election, how could they not win it?

NorthReport

Tonite’s results

 

Libs Massive Fail

SocialJustice101

Libs have been in power for 15 years.  They were not expected to win this election.  If the 2011 Federal Election and 2018 Ontario Election have taught us anything, is that NDP riding high in the polls is a sign of an incoming Con majority government.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

The Cons crushed the NDP in the 905 belt.   You can't win without the 905.    Hopefully Deepers will one day understand the value of compromise and incremental progress.   Rome wasn't built in a day. 

The Cons crushed the Liberals in the 905, too.  And thre NDP made gains throughout the province on a program to the left of last few.  It's not as though they'd have done better by actually just running as the Liberals with a different color scheme.  And the result tonight proves that the OLP could never have stopped Ford.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Libs have been in power for 15 years.  They were not expected to win this election.  If the 2011 Federal Election and 2018 Ontario Election have taught us anything, is that NDP riding high in the polls is a sign of an incoming Con majority government.

So your basic argument is that the NDP shouldn't even try to gain votes until the Conservative Party disbands?  

SocialJustice101

Do the Liberals have to prove that they can win 905?   They did it in 2014 Provincially and 2015 Federally.   When was the last time the NDP could do it?

Multiple 905 ridings were divided between the Liberals and the NDP, allowing the Cons to come down the middle and win.   If progressives were united, the Cons would have lost.   Understandably, many 905 voters were wary of the NDP, due to "Rae days" and overall distrust of socialism.

NorthReport

This is a huge failure for the Liberals tonite going from majority government to only winning 5% of the seats 

Did they even retain official party status - not at the moment!

It was such a disaster for the Liberals their Leader quit tonite

But most importantly Liberals showed they preferred a PC government to a NDP government

Debater

Pondering wrote:

Debater wrote:

Eg. Ottawa-Vanier, Don Valley East, Vaughan-Woodbridge, etc.  And Ottawa South is also on that list.  And perhaps Orleans.  These are ridings where the NDP probably can't win.

I just watched a couple of interviews with new NDP voters in Fraser's riding. They seem to take the yellow signs as an aknowledgement that he is losing.

 

Well, it turns out John Fraser was correct that he was best-positioned to beat the PC's in Ottawa South.

And I was correct above when I predicted that the Liberals might be able to retain Don Valley East and Orleans.

But I was wrong about Vaughan-Woodbridge.  That went PC.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Do the Liberals have to prove that they can win 905?   They did it in 2014 Provincially and 2015 Federally.   When was the last time the NDP could do it?

Multiple 905 ridings were divided between the Liberals and the NDP, allowing the Cons to come down the middle and win.   If progressives were united, the Cons would have lost.   Understandably, many 905 voters were wary of the NDP, due to "Rae days" and overall distrust of socialism.

So you're saying, essentially, that every progressive in Ontario, for the rest of eternity, should simply give up on ever getting anything to the left of what the OLP proposes.  Which means every progressive in Ontario should stop being progressive.  

Also, it's a contradiction to use the terms "Rae Days" and "socialism" in the same sentence, because "Rae days" were what happened when Bob Rae decided to become anti-socialist.

And at some point, you're going to have to accept that Ford is the OLP's fault-when they sold Hydro, they made it impossible for their party to win this election.

You say you endorsed the ONDP this year, but every post I've seen from you was basically a variant on the theme of "how DARE the ONDP become popular!" Why do you never EVER hold the OLP responsible for their own mistakes?

 

NorthReport

dp

NorthReport

How many elections have we been through here when a poster shows up here just before an election professing to support the NDP or that they used to support the NDP but as you say bash the NDP every chance they get It’s obvious it is on page 2 of the Liberals talking points manual for discussion groups

Pages