Ontario Election June 7, 2018

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NorthReport

Liberals 'Hallway Medicine'

Horwath calls Wynne’s healthcare platform ‘hallway medicine’; attacks Ford

https://globalnews.ca/video/4202607/horwath-calls-wynnes-healthcare-plat...

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

cco wrote:

You wouldn't happen to have that information about what percentage of NDP voters from 2014 are supporting the Doug Ford PCs this year, would you?

Will you say thank you if I post it?

 

NorthReport

Why Andrea Horwath has the momentum

With the Liberals disappearing, all the nonsense and cynical spin about strategic voting, minorities and coalitions goes away. This is now only about just one thing: who will be premier.

Ontarians who want to continue with the politics of bad and worse now have a single candidate. And for those who want something completely different, there’s Andrea Horwath.

On the question of best premier, Andrea Horwath leads with 47 per cent, attracting disappointed Liberals and unsettled PCs. Meanwhile, Doug Ford is driving away a significant group of PC voters. That group may have been willing to vote for Doug Ford as long as the Wynne Liberals were breathing. But these unsettled PCs are now unlocked. They can vote for something completely different.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4211569/tom-parkin-andrea-horwath-momentum/

NorthReport
NorthReport

Ha!

Tories try to stick Horwath with ghost of Bob Rae

https://ipolitics.ca/2018/05/16/campaign-notebook-leaders-converge-on-el...

jerrym

Mighty Middle wrote:

Third party advertisters linked to the Conservatives (like Ontario Proud) have poured time, money and resources demonizing Kathleen Wynne for the past three years on Social Media. With real vile and vicious attacks on social media (in particular on Facebook) All in the hopes of driving voters to the Conservatives.

Mighty Middle wrote:

What I said was 20% of Ford Nation support already comes from NDP supporters. I didn't say their surge in the polls is due to NDP supporters rushing to him. He already had them in his corner.

Mighty Middle wrote:

Because the media and pollsters are driving the narrative that the NDP is the only one who can beat Ford.

So you have blamed the NDP, Conservatives, the media, pollsters and the voters for the Liberal predicament. How about putting the blame where it belongs - the Liberals. After all, even if what you said were true, you cannot change things outside of your realm. Nothing will change for the Liberals until they start dealing with their own problems.

The following analysis shows that it is not strategic voting that is driving the change in voting patterns.

Because the media and pollsters are driving the narrative that the NDP is the only one who can beat Ford.

Some have said this momentum is strategic voting against Doug Ford. Or a coalescing anti-Conservative vote. There’s some truth in that — but that’s not it.

What is happening is people are gravitating to something completely different. This movement doesn’t fit into the old political framing — and that’s why the pundits, pollsters and opinion writers don’t get it. It’s not a replay of some old campaign war story.

What we are watching is a rejection of the rehearsed, talking-points-as-usual, insincere nonsense we get in standard politics, practised by politicians of any brand.

Andrea Horwath’s analysis saw that rejection. And now it’s a brushfire burning. Horwath listened and realized that people don’t want to settle between bad and worse anymore. They want something completely different. ...

Ontarians voted Progressive Conservative — and got cuts. So we put in the Liberals — and got cuts. And now the PCs say it’s their turn — so they can cut more. We keep bouncing between Liberal and Conservative — and health care keeps getting cut.

It’s no secret that over 15 years, the Liberals either caused or ignored the biggest problems affecting Ontarians — problems discussed around kitchen tables at important moments. Families feel health-care cuts. They worry about the care of their elderly moms and dads. Younger workers are carrying unfair student debts. Union benefits, like drug and dental plans, have disappeared. Wage growth is flat. Debt is high. People are struggling.

So Andrea Horwath offers to try something completely different. And people are responding. She’s receiving support from both disappointed Liberals and unsettled PCs, pushing boundaries and breaking the old partisan alignments.

It’s clear that disappointed Liberals have solidly moved to Horwath. Of the six regions in the Ipsos poll, the NDP leads in three and the PCs lead in three. Even in the seat-rich Toronto 416, the Liberals have fallen to a distant third, says Ipsos. Horwath’s NDP narrowly leads Ford Nation in Toronto — NDP 38 per cent versus PC 34 per cent.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4211569/tom-parkin-andrea-horwath-momentum/

 

jerrym

As a further reminder to Mighty Middle of why the NDP support is growing and the Liberals are losing support, since you never seem to get it, I will repeat part of a post from the 2018 Ontario Polls thread (and in case you still don't get it - it's the issues, the lack of trust after so many broken promises and three years of austerity following a very left campaign that only changed when on the road to Damascus and damnation in the polls you realized Wynne was the most unpopular premier in the country):

The following poll suggests what is driving the rapid growth in NDP popularity and it's not simply strategic voting.

In this poll of "Which party is the best to deal with this issue?", the Liberals do not rank first on any issue with voters, while the NDP ranks first on: Healthcare, the most important issue; social assistance programs; education funding; investment in public transportation; aboriginal issues; improving tolerance for minorities; big cities issues; and new immigrant issues. Furthermore, momentum on these issues clearly favours the NDP.

The PCs are ahead on: economy and jobs; taxes; energy; crime and public safety; debt repayment and balanced budget; fighting corruption; rules for sale of marijuana; small town and rural issues; and small business issues. 

Click on the url below to see the above results in chart form. 

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Global-News-Ontario-Vote-Issues-M...

 

NorthReport
Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
Horwath says no way to coalition with Wynne Liberals

Given the possibly hyperbolic comments about those damnable Liberals around here, I can't really see any way by which we could expect the NDP -- the last, best, most useless and corrupted (so I'm told) bulwark against everyone else -- to join forces with EVIL incarnate JBF (Just Because FORD!!!).

If Ontario (and that's me; that's where I am) has trouble deciding between Ford and the Liberals/Lieberals/Libranos/[insert_weak_pun] then that's the real problem from my point of view, and 51% of that problem would be that the only people who could help fix it -- my fellow Ontarians -- are the ones making it.  But that's electoral politics, yes?

and yet polling has shown Ford is attracting 20% of NDP voters.

You keep advancing this crap. It has been responded to in the past but you don't care and say it anyway.

NDP voters = people who USUALLY vote NDP. That is the only fair interpretation.

This is different than saying 20% of people who said they voted for the NDP in the last election.

This poll (of whatever accuracy) that you are taking as Gospel states that 20% of the people who in one given election considered Ford at the time of that poll. It is possible that they are no longer with Ford today anyway. (20% of the NDP vote last time is under 4% of the electorate.)

Here is where your BS logic leaves the building:

Each party has a core vote -- those would be NDP voters, Liberal Voters, Conservative voters etc. People normally voting for those parties. Then there is an independent group -- this includes people with no ideology or any other reason than party for voting a certain way. They can't be core and floating voters at the same time. And if they are floating how can you identify from a poll about one previous election which party to make a claim that they came from or belong to?

A chunk of these independents voted for the NDP in the past -- each party attracts one-time voters who cannot be considered "their" voters -- for strategy, a negative vote against a party, a specific policy, anger at a candidate etc. (including the really, really, really bad campaign the Conservatives ran in that election). Their motivations are diverse. Many Conservatives in the previous election were really angry at Hudak and some voted NDP as they hated the Liberals so much. There were stories about this at the time. So what if a chunk of those identified with Ford early on? These are not NDP voters. These are floating or strategic voters.

How can you say they were not "Conservative voters" voting for Horwath? If they were Conservative voters then, by your logic, now that they are voting Conservative, you want to call them NDP voters? So now, say they vote for Ford after all, in the following election if they go to the NDP would they be NDP voters coming home or Conservative voters voting NDP?

If you vote "A" 5 times in a row and "B" once, then "A" again are you a "B" voter voting "A"? Were you ever a "B" voter? If you then vote "A" again are you a disloyal "A" voter?

There is not a one time drift in loyalty for Ford: just a constant bleed from all parties to all parties among voters who are not loyal to a party -- not NDP voters, not Conservative voters and not Liberal voters. Each party has a number of voters who voted for a different party in the previous election and may vote for a different one in the next. The party with the most support at any given time, probably has the greatest percentage of these if you ask the question.

This is the point of elections.

These voters are the ones that make differences in elections -- not the ones who vote predictably. To suggest any change in where they are headed now is a bleed of the core vote of a party is a conclusion that can only be made by asking more than what a person voted for in the last election. It would need to understand why they did it and what their patterns were in previous elections.

Stop. Repeating. This. Bullshit.

 

 

 

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Stop. Repeating. This. Bullshit.

Then what about the polling from Doug Ford mayoral race that had him scooping up 20% of the NDP vote? Four years later it is still at 20%.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Which is written by a former NDP staffer, so this is hardly non-partisan.

NorthReport

This is concerning.

7 in 10 Ontarians think carbon taxes are just a tax grab

https://globalnews.ca/news/4204847/ontario-carbon-tax-election-poll/

Doug Ford promises to cut gas prices by 10 cents a litre

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/16/doug-ford-promises-to...

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Stop. Repeating. This. Bullshit.

Then what about the polling from Doug Ford mayoral race that had him scooping up 20% of the NDP vote? Four years later it is still at 20%.

Same bullshit in a new flavour.

Once having voted for is not same as X voter.

Also Ford was not running as a party representative.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Re: Ford having 20% of NDP support

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Same bullshit in a new flavour.

Once having voted for is not same as X voter.

Also Ford was not running as a party representative.

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Re: Ford having 20% of NDP support

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Same bullshit in a new flavour.

Once having voted for is not same as X voter.

Also Ford was not running as a party representative.

Hey, I don't have to stop saying you are lying and trolling here as long as you are. You can stop either any time.

 

NorthReport

Why did the PCs just lose another candidate? 

Is that Jagmeet brother’s riding?

NorthReport

 

FollowFollow @ChrisAReynolds

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Here at the Brampton South rally, Ford’s team says they can’t speak at all to Brampton East candidate Simmer Sandhu’s sudden resignation today.

5:29 PM - 16 May 2018

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisAReynolds/status/996910644736675841

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

A Progressive Conservative candidate abruptly quit on Wednesday evening, hours after his former employer announced it was investigating an internal data breach that affected 60,000 customers. 

Sandhu worked nine years at 407 ETR, the company that owns and operates the 407 toll highway through the GTA.

Late Wednesday afternoon, 407 ETR announced it was informing 60,000 customers that their names, mailing addresses, and in some cases their phone numbers were stolen from the company's office during the past year. 

"The incident is being investigated as an inside theft of data," said the company in a statement. It said local police and the province's information and privacy commissioner have been informed. 

A company official would not say who was being investigated but confirmed that Sandhu worked for 407 ETR until about two months ago.

"These allegations are totally baseless. I absolutely deny them," Sandhu said on Twitter. He said he will vigorously defend himself, but added, "I feel it is impossible for me to continue as the PC candidate in Brampton East while doing so." 

"In light of the investigation into Simmer Sandhu, he felt it was necessary to stand down as a candidate and we accepted his resignation," said PC spokesperson Melissa Lantsman in a statement.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/pc-candidate-brampton-east-simmer-...

NorthReport

This looks serious - could it be the game changer?

FollowFollow @Dleebosh

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Derek Leebosh Retweeted Amneet Singh

Sounds like a whole bunch of PC candidates could get implicated in this illicit theft of data. Let’s see if more shoes will drop

Derek Leebosh added,

Amneet Singh @amneetbali

#BREAKING: Simmer Sandhu PC Candidate for Brampton-East has resigned his candidacy pending allegations of ‘Internal theft' of data on 60,000 customers from Ontario's private 407 freeway. …

https://twitter.com/Dleebosh/status/996900511050846208

NorthReport

FollowFollow @InklessPW

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This is the overflow crowd for this evening's Horwath event in Kitchener ,in a riding currently held by Liberals.

3:21 PM - 15 May 2018

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/996515926743826432

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Just mentioning the 407 puts many Ontario drivers into a state of rage. If there was some collusion between a 407 employee and a political party, people are going to hit the roof. And what is bad for Ford is that 407 drivers are the exact kind of people he needs to win.

NorthReport

Thinking that with tonite's late breaking scandal for the PCs, and the packed meeting halls for Andrea Horwath, the NDP should be doing well in the next series of polls

And now this:

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/16/doug-ford-attended-pr...

NorthReport
Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

dp

NorthReport
Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

The deadline to withdraw candidates is today. If I was Kathleen Wynne I would withdraw every single Liberal candidate running in this election (including herself)

Right now this is a campaign she will not win. and the prospect of a vote split is way too high. We are looking at a repeat of the 2011 Federal election where Harper won, NDP came second and the Libs third.

So it would be best for Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals to call it a day and let it play out between Ford and Horwath. So vote splitting doesn't happen.

But even with the Liberals out of the picture the strength of Ford is still too strong. He is poised to win Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario and the 905. The NDP strength is the GTA and Northern Ontario.

So unfortunately we are looking at a Premier Doug Ford as he is resonating with Ontario, because they are angry. And he is feeding into that anger. I just get the sense Ontarians is angry and in the mood for austerity.

The media love him. Why? Just like Trump, Ford will provide a plethora of juicy stories for them to cover. Which means increased profits. It will boost newspaper circulations, boost ratings of  local newscasts, and talk radio.

As a populist, he is teflon. Nothing sticks to him, so we might be stuck with him for a very long time. 8 years at least. As his support base in the 905, Southwestern and Eastern Ontario will stick with him no matter what. Cause he spouts populist messaging. "I'm for the little guy"

Plus there was another article recently that speculating Ford popularity is a result of Trudeau virtue signalling. Folks are sick and tired of Trudeau catering to certain groups, and looking for someone (like Ford) who will stick up for them.

I always thought that if the NDP had let Tom Mulcair be "Angry Tom" and frame a narrative of being Justin Trudeau part of the 1% and part of the "elite" he could of won and be PM today. Tapping into the disenfranchised and the alienated. While still holding on to their base of the working class and blue collar.

They could have tried that in 2019 if the NDP gave Mulcair a second chance. So 2019 is a question mark on how the NDP will differentiate itself from Trudeau.

NorthReport

People who ignore provincial politics do so at their own peril as Canadian provinces have a lot more clout within Canada than is often realized.

I feel sorry for the people of Ontario over what’s coming for them if Doug Ford becomes Premier. It is going to become a nitemare. Just look South of the border for an inkling of what’s to come

jerrym

In the first three polls of early April the Ontario NDP averaged 21% (18%, 21% and 24%) while the PCs averaged 44% (50%, 43% and 40%), leaving the NDP 23% behind Ford. Now they are 5% behind. In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "It ain't over til it's over".

 

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

jerrym wrote:

In the first three polls of early April the Ontario NDP averaged 21% (18%, 21% and 24%) while the PCs averaged 44% (50%, 43% and 40%), leaving the NDP 23% behind Ford. Now they are 5% behind. In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "It ain't over til it's over".

Then need to win either Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario or  the 905

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

When is the last day for candidates to be nominated

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tom_Parkin_/status/997168446751346688

NorthReport
NorthReport

Is Patrick Brown's book out or has he just given parts of it to the media?

NorthReport

NEW: have written to province’s chief electoral officer regarding allegations of “illegal misuse of personal data” by 29 candidates, including accusations of paying for data from the 407. Asking for immediate investigation

https://twitter.com/krushowy/status/997195320797868032

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Patrick Brown's book is out.

On November 1, 2018

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Slogans such as the Fords’ “stop the gravy train” and Trump’s “drain the swamp” and “make America great again” may not have much substance, but they often stick when people are increasingly worried about their status in society.

It's hard to argue against this.  It's probably, sadly, true.

But I'd add a caveat:  these empty slogans become chants when unintelligent people are worried about their status in society.

Otherwise, how can we explain why no intelligent people seem to be saying "They closed the steel mill and gas is too expensive and Bruce Jenner is a chick now, so it's time to vote for whoever will build a giant wall to keep the Mexicans out of Montana"

Could Dougie win?  Yes, of course.  I've learned my lesson about saying "never" after Rob became the Mayor and The Donald became POTUS.  But if Ford's vacuous sloganeering wins hearts and minds, I won't pretend it was by any other means than tricking rubes. 

 

NorthReport

Is this for real?

WATCH: Ford grilled over allegations his party used 407 data for political gains

http://www.iheartradio.ca/newstalk-1010/news/was-information-stolen-from...

NorthReport

Ford faces tough questions as NDP asks for probe into ex-PC candidate's alleged role in data breach

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-brampton-east-data-breach-inv...

NorthReport

How a convicted fraudster ended up at the centre of Ontario Conservatives' nomination controversies

Snover Dhillon hired himself out to would-be Conservative candidates to sign up members who could vote for them, but the elections often ended in chaos

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-patrick-brown-compares-...

NorthReport

Kathleen Wynne’s new task? Preventing a total wipeout.

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/kathleen-wynnes-new-task-preventing-a-to...

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Kathleen Wynne’s new task? Preventing a total wipeout.

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/kathleen-wynnes-new-task-preventing-a-to...

For the Liberals this is an important task in order to retain party status. there is little doubt that the party will be in contention in enough seats. Polls show them falling behind in most such that they could face as low as a couple wins only. If they trully understand which ridings to target, and put extra effort there a few thousand votes could make the difference across a dozen seats. Clearly theya re understanding this. The question is whether such a strategy will produce close wins or close losses.

The NDP despite being much better off now is in a similar position -- if they target the right seats they could hold Ford to a minority or even win but getting it wrong could lead to a great many near misses.

History tells us that the Liberals are normally better at this -- targeting and getting the vote out. The Liberals probably know more and probably have more people on the ground to tell them. The NDP have more support at the moment.

The Conservatives have much more money, somewhat more support and more people. It would take a groundswell for the NDP to overcome that but it is not impossible.

The other thing the Liberals were good at is tailoring messages to voters -- this was a big part of the Federal 2015 strategy that worked for them. I am guessing this is not a factor now as people no longer care what Wynne says. This means it is down to getting the vote they have out. The NDP has never been very sophisticated in targeting messages but perhaps the appeal of Horwath might be enough.

So the provincial Liberals in Ontario might be borrowing the ipads their federal cousins used to get the best intel they can...

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Is this for real?

WATCH: Ford grilled over allegations his party used 407 data for political gains

http://www.iheartradio.ca/newstalk-1010/news/was-information-stolen-from...

I think you are asking the wrong and very dangerous question.

Conservatives want a pro-business capital environment. Many do not care how they get it.

The better question would be -- "does it matter?"

It may or it may not. It is possible with the right promises, that Conservatives may not care. They are not the fairness and honesty party. They are the feed the greed party. When other parties think a scandal is all they need, they misunderstand the motivation of voters.

The sad truth is that I think for a left candidate to win people have to like that person. For a Conservative to win this is not required.

For a left person to win the people have to trust the competency of that person. For the right what matters if they trust the person to attack those things they dislike.

 

This comes down to the fact that the left requires some confidence to be put into public good and government. the right only needs to channel anger at the government and if there is enough of that, people do not care if they like or think the person will do a good job.

It is easier to tear down than build up. People know this. You need to make a strong case for active government.

Look at the history of personalities -- people choose mean people to tear down and likeable people to build up. What works for Conservatives is not the same as what works for parties running on being progressive (whether they really are or not).

For the most part the Liberals sell to the left so what is true about left parties is also true about Liberals. Being mean and angry just does not do as well on the left. Layton got to understand this during his career. Mulcair never did.

This is also the reason left parties over-estimate the damage a scandal will do on the right and underestimate the damage it will do on the left.

All this is universal: the scandals Trump is facing are hurting -- but he is still around 40%. A democrat would be at 20. The Ford scandals woudl sink the NDP at this point but they may not matter to the Conservatives.

Conservatives do not like or trust ethically any government and so they do not need to like or trust ethically their candidates. They just need to know that the Conservative would punish the people they hate, cut government and taxes and deliver the wealth to the wealthy.

NorthReport

I wonder if this brewing scandal is part of Patrick Brown’s revenge

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

I wonder if this brewing scandal is part of Patrick Brown’s revenge

Good question

NorthReport

 

Wouldn’t it be something if this alleged scandal is true

and one of these students were convinced to talk about it

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tom_Parkin_/status/997206969034379265

NorthReport

dp

NorthReport

Active police investigation into the data theft is underway 

bekayne

Lock him up! Lock him up!

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Anybody know if Unifor is STILL backing the Liberals?  If they face the fact that there's no longer any "strategy" in backing Wynne and Co.,  that could pretty much put the whole thing away, I think.

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