Ontario Election June 7, 2018

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NorthReport
NorthReport
progressive17 progressive17's picture

Looks like Horwath is going for the Christian vote with her strong stance on keeping alcohol out of corner stores.

NorthReport

Or maybe protecting union jobs

NorthReport
jerrym

dp

jerrym

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Here's an interesting chart, from a Global News story.

Ciabatta2 wrote:

 

I saw that chart and it is misleading. Of course Wynne is going to campaign in ridings she already holds - because she has a majority of the seats and she needs to keep them.

And of course Horwath is going to go into ridings she doesn't have - because she has the fewest and needs to win new ones!

 

 

However the poll does show the Liberals are playing defence as Wynne is spending 79% of her time in Liberal ridings when they won 54% of seats in the 2014 election. The PCs are also on defence but to a much lesser extent as Ford is now spending 33% of the time in their own ridings, which were 26% of all ridings in the 2014 election. On the other hand, the NDP leader is the only leader spending less time in the 19% of ridings they won in 2014, as Horwath is spending only 13% of her time in NDP ridings. 

It also shows that Horwath is focusing more on winning Liberal ridings, spending 70% of her time which is 16% more than  the 54% of ridings held by the Liberals in 2014, although she is also spending 33% of her time Conservative ridings, which is 7% more than the 26% of ridings that the Conservative ridings. 

NorthReport

If I were a Liberal, I think I would have the good sense to keep my mouth shut about finances.

Ontario Liberals understating deficit by billions: auditor

Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk delivers her pre-election report on government finances

The Kathleen Wynne government is low-balling its budget deficits by billions of dollars, according to a report released Wednesday by the province's auditor general, just six weeks ahead of the provincial election. 

The Liberal government's projected deficit of $6.7 billion for 2018-19 should actually be $11.7 billion, says Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk in her pre-election report on government finances. 

Lysyk said the government failed to account properly for the financial impact of its Fair Hydro Plan on provincial coffers and improperly treated the revenues and expenses related to two provincial pension plans. 

For the same reasons, the auditor says the Liberals are underestimating the deficits in future years:

  • $6.6 billion deficit in 2019-20 should be $12.2 billion.
  • $6.5 billion deficit in 2020-21 should be $12.5 billion.

"The consequences of these major differences between the governments projections and the likely actual deficits are significant," Lysyk said. "They create the perception that the government has more money available to it than it actually does."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-pre-election-auditor-gener...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Ontario election party leaders spend the holiday weekend flinging the Brown stuff

Revelations about fraudulent PC Party memberships, a stuffed ballot box and data breaches come as Doug Ford’s lead slips away

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ontario-election-party-leaders-spend-th...

NorthReport

Jagmeet Singh opening for Andrea today? Is this the largest crowd of the campaign for the NDP?

FollowFollow @Tom_Parkin_

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Tom Parkin Retweeted Marieke Walsh

Wow, BIG rally. NDP organizers say there are 1,000 people at Horwath’s rally in Peel Region.

Tom Parkin added,

0:11

Marieke WalshVerified account @MariekeWalsh

At packed @OntarioNDP rally in Brampton, @theJagmeetSingh is the opening act for @AndreaHorwath #onpoli #onelxn #ontariovotes

Show this thread

11:33 AM - 21 May 2018

https://twitter.com/Tom_Parkin_/status/998632967634341888

NorthReport
WWWTT

NorthReport wrote:

Jagmeet Singh opening for Andrea today? Is this the largest crowd of the campaign for the NDP?

FollowFollow @Tom_Parkin_

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Tom Parkin Retweeted Marieke Walsh

Wow, BIG rally. NDP organizers say there are 1,000 people at Horwath’s rally in Peel Region.

Tom Parkin added,

0:11

Marieke WalshVerified account @MariekeWalsh

At packed @OntarioNDP rally in Brampton, @theJagmeetSingh is the opening act for @AndreaHorwath #onpoli #onelxn #ontariovotes

Show this thread

11:33 AM - 21 May 2018

https://twitter.com/Tom_Parkin_/status/998632967634341888

Wow! 1K people at a rally in Brampton? Brampton is a traditional PC stronghold (but not in recent years I'm thinking). If this is really true, then Doug Ford is in serious serious trouble!!!!

I believe Ford needs a strong showing in Brampton, for numeric and traditional reasons. If several seats swing to the ONDP in Brampton, then the ONDP and socialist issues can never be belittled in Ontario ever again!

Actually Caledon/Orangeville is probably the strongest PC fort, but a strong showing in Brampton will pull in stronger ONDP number for C/O! For me, this is huge news for the ONDP!!! If ONDP can make a strong second place numbers in Caledon Orangeville, it would be a strong possibility that the federal NDP can form government in 2019!

NorthReport

Andrea Horwath, Jagmeet Singh team up at Brampton event to keep pushing NDP in polls

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ndp-brampton-rally-1.4672197

NorthReport

Remember when you were a child and good things were free?

http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/parkin-remember-when-you-were-a...

NorthReport

Big opportunities and big risks for Ontario NDP as campaign rounds the bend

 

http://rabble.ca/news/2018/05/big-opportunities-and-big-risks-ontario-nd...

Sean in Ottawa

jerrym wrote:

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Here's an interesting chart, from a Global News story.

Ciabatta2 wrote:

 

I saw that chart and it is misleading. Of course Wynne is going to campaign in ridings she already holds - because she has a majority of the seats and she needs to keep them.

And of course Horwath is going to go into ridings she doesn't have - because she has the fewest and needs to win new ones!

 

 

However the poll does show the Liberals are playing defence as Wynne is spending 79% of her time in Liberal ridings when they won 54% of seats in the 2014 election. The PCs are also on defence but to a much lesser extent as Ford is now spending 33% of the time in their own ridings, which were 26% of all ridings in the 2014 election. On the other hand, the NDP leader is the only leader spending less time in the 19% of ridings they won in 2014, as Horwath is spending only 13% of her time in NDP ridings. 

It also shows that Horwath is focusing more on winning Liberal ridings, spending 70% of her time which is 16% more than  the 54% of ridings held by the Liberals in 2014, although she is also spending 33% of her time Conservative ridings, which is 7% more than the 26% of ridings that the Conservative ridings. 

I think you are still underestimating the reality that the Liberals have a majority and so the seats they need to win are in their hands whereas many seats the Conservatives need are in Liberal hands and almost all the seats the NDP needs are in other hands.

In other words if the parties spent even time campaigning across all seats the chart would not look much different than this.

NorthReport
jerrym

Good to see that the issue of poverty in Ontario is being addressed, at least to a greater extent than is typical in our elections.

As Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne, Green party Leader Mike Schreiner and representatives from the Progressive Conservatives and NDP watched from the front row, Lawless and other anti-poverty activists called on all parties to make Ontario a fair and equitable place where everyone belongs.

Ontario for All, a coalition of more than 70 organizations, wants the leaders to commit to policies and programs that reduce gender, racial and income inequality, and create pathways to prosperity for almost two million Ontarians living in poverty. ...

Anti-poverty activists have spent the past 15 years pushing the Liberal government to rebuild Ontario’s social safety net after an era of punishing cuts under the previous PC government of Mike Harris.

They dread a return to the austerity of the 1990s, when the Harris Tories slashed welfare rates by 22.6 per cent, cancelled the construction of 50,000 affordable housing units and froze the minimum wage at $6.85 an hour for eight years.

That is why they are focused on ensuring all parties in the June 7 election continue to strengthen supports for the province’s most vulnerable residents.  ...

“The nature of the labour market means work on its own is not going to provide that pathway, and that is why these kinds of income security reforms are so important.” ...

Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats are building on that idea by proposing affordable dental carefor all Ontarians in a sweeping $1.2-billion program for about 4.5 million adults and seniors who are without workplace or pension coverage. It would be free for individuals with incomes under $30,000.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/21/ontario-election-camp...

 

NorthReport

Hang onto your hats folks as here come the attacks on the NDP. 

Big advantage for the NDP however is Andrea’s popularity. 

NorthReport
NorthReport
Sean in Ottawa

As much as many here dislike strategic voting it is also a factor.

In the previous election there would ahve been some anti Liberal strategic voting. And some Anti Conservative strategic voting towards the Liberals.

Now the concentrations of support may reflect  less strategic voting against the Liberals given how they seem out of it (likely there was not all that much to begin with) and strategic voting going towards the NDP against the PCs. What this means is that these numbers could show that Liberal support even at a low point may be a little more concentrated than anticipated and so might the NDP getting a little push in bad Liberal ridings from Liberals hoping to stop Ford.

This could mean that the Liberals retain a few more seats than these numbers might suggest and the NDP take a few more from the Conservatives.

There is also the strong possibility that the distribution of Ford's vote might not mirror the previous PC leader and that he might do a bit better in some of the 905 seats and lower in others. Depending on how that works out Ford could either get more seats or fewer as these universal seat projections prove incorrect and the distribution not be universal but more grouped.

The same could be true in other ridings between the NDP and Liberals. The universal changes suggest Ottawa Centre going NDP and the NDP support increases not being productive elsewhere in Eastern Ontario. However, if the NDP rise is more to their better seats, Ottawa Vanier (a long shot with a flat increase) could also go to the NDP as an example. Elsewhere, there are other weird things you see with the universal regional switches like the Liberals holding Beaches, Spadina, University, Thunder Bay-A, Etobicoke N, Scarborough C, Cambridge, Elgin, Lambton, Mushkegowuk which I think would more likely go NDP with this kind of movement in their favour.

NorthReport
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

And the question remains...have Unifor moved away from their early position, which was an effective endorsement of the Liberals?

Mighty Middle

Kathleen Wynne has completely given up, as it seems she is sleepwalking through this campaign. I just don't see the fire and the fight in her. I noticed that even in the first week of the campaign.

Because of that the media is completely ignoring her and her campaign as there are only two media narratives reaching the electorate. 1) Ford scandals 2) NDP momentum and their rise in the polls.

Even Doug Ford is joining that narrative as his presser today, he spent all his time attacking Andrea Horwath and didn't even mention Kathleen Wynne name once. And she is the incumbent Premier!

If Kathleen Wynne was just going to give up like this, she should have just....well I did previously mention it, but let's not go there. But she has just given up, and everyone on the campaign trail can see it. Even the media as they have pretty much stopped covering her and her campaign. And they are the sitting Government!

NorthReport

Why Doug Ford’s platform won’t actually save Ontarians money

Many of Ontario PC leader Doug Ford's key policies don't add up.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/why-doug-fords-platform-wont-actually-s...

NorthReport

Ontario PCs searching for weak spot in surging New Democrats

The NDP admitted to a $1.4B math mistake in their platform. The PCs might use it as an example of fiscal incompetence ... but they don't even have a platform

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-tories-searching-for-andrea...

NorthReport

Every party has a few nutters - the key is to not have too many of them, eh!

Ontario Liberal candidate endorsed 9/11 conspiracy theory

https://ipolitics.ca/2018/05/18/ontario-liberal-candidate-endorsed-9-11-...

jerrym

Andrea has been really boogieing around the province in the last week to a greater extent than the other leaders, indicating the NDP is seeing opportunities in all regions of the province.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/andrea-horwaths-big-orange-bus-is-picki...

NorthReport

Universal child care key to closing gender gap, advocate says

https://www.thestar.com/edmonton/2018/05/18/universal-child-care-key-to-...

Ciabatta2

Anyone know if there is going to be a French language debate on TFO, like there was the last time?

NorthReport

And the Liberals will be supporting who in a minority government? Reasonable question and voters would like to know.

gadar

NorthReport wrote:

And the Liberals will be supporting who in a minority government? Reasonable question and voters would like to know.

Why would any party answer that question in the middle of a campaign. That would be admitting defeat, might as well pull all the candidates as someone suggested upthread.

All the parties will claim that they will form the next government, and so should they while they are campaigning.

NorthReport

All the more reason why the NDP needs a majority government

NorthReport

What Doug Ford Says About Women Says Even More About Him

From commenting on Kathleen Wynne’s smile to insulting female reporters, Ford’s sexist rhetoric is revealing.

http://www.chatelaine.com/opinion/doug-ford-sexist-comments/

NorthReport

Why the usual questions about the Ontario NDP’s competence are being set aside

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-why-the-usual-questions-...

NorthReport

How is the 's apparent surge in the polls playing out on the campaign trail? "You can really feel it out there on the road," says .

https://twitter.com/PnPCBC/status/999036576121241601

NorthReport

Weird comments

An Ontario Liberal candidate tells the he doesn’t want around “We don’t feel that actually strengthens our chances.”

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/999241342231314432

NorthReport

Mark my words, Andrea Horwath is going to win Ontario

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/alberta-diary/2018/05/mark-my-words-andr...

NorthReport

At the NDP leader's event, a Conservative candidate. (This does happen sometimes; a Liberal showed up at Horwath's event in London last week). Anyway she says this...

https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/999306466585591809

... And then she says this.

https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/999306540887654400

NorthReport

A Horwath majority is best way to stop Ford

 

And even if Horwath brings Ford down to a minority, there’s still no guarantee he won’t become premier. Yes, poll after poll has shown traditional Liberal voters overwhelmingly prefer Horwath to Ford. But Liberal party insiders may decide that’s not what’s best for them. And if that group has proven anything, it’s that they consistently put themselves first, regardless of the cost to Ontarians.

To keep power, they misspent billions shutting down power plants to win seats in Mississauga and Oakville. They made a costly backroom deal to back the Scarborough subway of former Toronto Mayor Rob Ford. They ignored their own Long-Term Energy Plan and extended the life of the Pickering Power Plant by four years. They lied throughout the 2014 election about Hydro One privatization. They tried to outflank the NDP on the left. Now they’re swinging to the right, attacking the “union bosses” they used to call friends. The political culture of this Ontario Liberal Party is so bad it has convinced many Ontarians Ford is a better choice.

And remember, Kathleen Wynne will not be the Liberal Party Leader after June 7. No one knows who will be Liberal Leader and what backroom deal they might cook up with Ford. It could be public appointments, corporate jobs, money for the Liberal caucus, or a promise to not call inquiries. Ford has many pressure points and the Liberals are weak. There is no guarantee this Liberal Party won’t prop up a Ford minority to hang on to a last shred of power.

To be sure to stop Ford, Andrea Horwath needs a majority. Traditional Liberal voters can lend her this support, stop Ford and reset Ontario’s political culture. They can put the Liberal party away from power, where it can purify itself.

Or traditional Liberals can roll the dice — betting that a group that has consistently let them down and embarrassed them will, at their most desperate and weak moment, do the morally right thing.

And if that bet doesn’t pay off, the price is Premier Ford.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4225571/tom-parkin-andrea-horwath-majority/

NorthReport

This video provides a great break down on why numbers on benefits to earners, long-term care beds & cap and trade just don't add up.

https://twitter.com/JerryPDias/status/999331323293655041

NorthReport

Let's just say more trouble for the PCs.

Whoa! This is going to shake things up. Ford and the PC party knew Snover Dhillon worked for Beaches East-York candidate...

Rick Barnes added,

Chris Reynolds @ChrisAReynolds

QP Briefing's @jessiecatherine reveals that the PC party has known for months that Tory operative Snover Dhillon—linked with the stolen data scandal—worked for Beaches-East York candidate Sarah Mallo. "We'll address it immediately," Doug Ford says. http://www.qpbriefing.com/?p=344197&preview_id=344197&preview_nonce=0722...… #onpoli

 

https://twitter.com/queerthoughts/status/999355966784200704

NorthReport

Kathleen Wynne says 'I can do better'

Why Windsor West is a riding to watch — home to Liberal candidate who doesn't want Wynne visiting

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/the-campaigner-may-23-1.4673539

NorthReport

Ha!

Sounds like a stalling tactic.

Doug Ford promises to price out platform before Ontario election

https://globalnews.ca/news/4226440/ontario-election-doug-ford-platform-c...

NorthReport

It appears has started informing the 60,000 customers whose names and addresses were stolen. (allegedly by a PC candidate who abruptly quit the race last week but who denies the allegation)

https://twitter.com/CBCQueensPark/status/999313642247016455

NorthReport

Go Patrick Go! You can't keep a good leader down, it seems.

Ontario PC party was not left in a mess, writes Patrick Brown

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2018/05/23/ontario-pc-party...

NorthReport

Ontario PCs searching for weak spot in surging New Democrats

The NDP admitted to a $1.4B math mistake in their platform. The PCs might use it as an example of fiscal incompetence ... but they don't even have a platform

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/chris-selley-tories-searching-for-andre...

NorthReport

 3m3 minutes ago

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Tom Parkin Retweeted Matt Elliott

This is significant. Many have suggested the PC pledge to take over the TTC subway is aimed at turning it into a P3.

Tom Parkin added,

https://twitter.com/Tom_Parkin_/status/999424736957468672

https://twitter.com/GraphicMatt/status/999409366435426304

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