Ontario By-elections

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David Young
Ontario By-elections

Since there are two seats that Liberals M.P.P.s have resigned from, London West and Windsor-Tecumseh, has there been any speculation when by-elections would be held to replace them?  (Barring the fall of the Wynne government!)

 

Stockholm

The byelections have to be called by mid-August...since the Liberals are likely to do badly, I think they might call them for mid-summer when as few people as possible will be paying attention.

David Young

If the Liberals aren't defeated over the budget, is there any speculation if McGuinty will stay on as an M.P.P., or resign as well?

 

janfromthebruce

Sattler wins London West NDP nomination

A public school board trustee has won the provincial NDP nomination in a bid to fill a London seat left vacant by ex-minister Chris Bentley.

Sattler is the former Chair of the TVDSB, and former OPSBA Western region vice president.

This is a link to her facebook page which tells you a lot more about her background, particularly her NDP background with the party.

https://www.facebook.com/PeggySattlerONDP?filter=1

 

jerrym

Good news for the NDP on the byelection front thanks to a poll of southwestern Ontario.

Quote:

With the government safe for the time being, the focus turns to the impending by-elections in the southwestern Ontario ridings of London West and Windsor-Tecumseh. They will apparently be called after the budget is passed. As the two seats were formerly occupied by Liberals, the government will not be able to secure a majority by winning them as they could have done in Kitchener-Waterloo last year. Liberals finished a distant third in that contest, an outcome they will want to avoid repeating.

The two by-elections should be competitive, with London West potentially a three-way race and Windsor-Tecumseh a close NDP-Liberal battle. Grits will have a tough fight on their hands, as in addition to losing their incumbency advantage the party has taken a hit in the region. Ipsos-Reid pegs Liberal support at only 25 per cent in southwestern Ontario, compared to 34 per cent for the NDP and 35 per cent for the Tories. That represents a swing of roughly 10 points between the Liberals and the NDP since the 2011 election, which alone has the potential to move Windsor-Tecumseh into the NDP’s column and the Liberals behind the PCs in London West.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/05/29/andrea-horwath-ontario-poll_n_33...

David Young

When is the Ontario Legislature scheduled to end it's sitting?

Any thoughts about whether McGinty will resign his seat?

 

David Young

CTV News just said that McGinty will be resigning his seat tomorrow.

Three by-elections (and counting) on the way.

 

 

toaster

Might Bartolucci also announce?

mark_alfred

McGuinty just announced he's going to resign today (2013/06/12).

NorthReport

Ottawa South 2011 Election Results

21,842 48.86% L * DALTON MCGUINTY - Down 1% - 6,897 vote plurality
14,945 33.43% PC JASON MACDONALD - Down 3%
5,988 13.39% ND WALI FARAH  - Up 4%
1,442 3.23% GP JAMES MIHAYCHUK
252 0.56% LTN JEAN-SERGE BRISSON
238 0.53% PPSN JOHN REDINS

 

Ottawa South 2007 Election Results

24,015 50.13% L * DALTON MCGUINTY - Down - 2% - 9,709 vote plurality
14,206 29.66% PC RICHARD RAYMOND - Down 4%
4,467 9.33% ND EDELWEISS D'ANDREA - No Change
3,902 8.15% GP JOHN FORD
927 1.94% FCP DAVID MACDONALD
384 0.80% LTN JEAN-SERGE BRISSON

 

Ottawa South 2003 Election Results


24607 - 51.7L Space *DALTON MCGUINTY - 8,234 vote plurality
16,413 - 34.43PC               RICHARD RAYMOND
4,306 - 9.03ND SpaceJAMES MCLAREN

http://www.elections.on.ca/en-ca

Sean in Ottawa

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/06/18/poll_tories_could_win_...

The Forum Research survey conducted Thursday found the Tories at 37 per cent, the Liberals at 34 per cent, the NDP at 22 per cent, and the Greens at 4 per cent.

Would be very bad if the Conservatives take Ontario again.

adma

Though that's a surprisingly high number for the NDP at this point--indeed, the whole poll reads as if it could have been conducted a few months ago, when the Liberals were bogged in third province-wide as Hudak and Horwath duked it out for the lead...

janfromthebruce

Sean that seat is in Ottawa and not an NDP friendly riding so adma is right - that's a good poll for the NDP in Eastern Ontario. If they got a super candidate who knows what would happen. Incidently, in the byelection in KitWat and before the candidates were chosen the first poll was about what this poll was.

Remember, the NDP got a super well known candidate and they won big time. It can happen.

As for the other 2 byelections in southwestern Ontario, the polls show the NDP and cons statitically tied and the libs 10 percentage points behind.

David Young

Would the Conservatives be in a better position to take this riding?

 

Robo

David Young wrote:

Would the Conservatives be in a better position to take this riding?

 

Better than what or whom?

David Young

Robo wrote:

David Young wrote:

Would the Conservatives be in a better position to take this riding?

 

Better than what or whom?

Than the Liberals.

Is this a 'safe' Liberal seat, or another one they could lose?

 

David Young

Etobicoke-Lakeshore becomes vacant seat #4 on July 2.

Just how many are leaving the Liberals, I wonder.

 

felixr

David Young wrote:

Etobicoke-Lakeshore becomes vacant seat #4 on July 2.

Just how many are leaving the Liberals, I wonder.

Finally an open seat in Brian Topp's own home riding. He said he wanted to run federally, but just think what a powerful presence he'd be on the provincial stage: the guy can fundraise, run communications, conduct targetted strategy, organise, set out a vision, and write policy (of which the ONDP has virtually none). The ONDP would be very fortunate to have Brian Topp as a candidate. This is probably also the best shot the ONDP has had at winning the seat since the Rae landslide. The Liberal incumbent is quitting under the shadow of a major scandal (the power plant cancelation), seriously pissed off the teacher's union (which had a BIG effect on electing the NDP in the Kitchener Waterloo byelection), it is a byelection that will not change the government, and the ONDP has been in first place in the polls as recently as 1 year ago while remaining very high ever since. If I were Topp and had any serious intention of ever involving myself in electoral politics, I think this would be too good an opportunity to pass up. I bet if he sought the nomination, he would be virtually unopposed. If he won election, he would transform the ONDP.

Stockholm

Topp lives in Parkdale-High Park not Etobicoke-Lakeshore

felixr

Stockholm wrote:

Topp lives in Parkdale-High Park not Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Doh!

NorthReport

 Liberals did the same thing in BC.

Citizen McGuinty even more hypocritical than as premier

(The controversial plants in Oakville and Mississauga were abruptly cancelled, the latter announced as a Liberal party campaign promise, and the costs — at least $585 million is the best estimate — consistently downplayed and lowballed by the government.)

If possible, McGuinty the private citizen is more arrogant, less forthcoming and more hypocritical than the politician McGuinty.

He was asked back in the wake of a withering report earlier this month from the province’s Information and Privacy CommissionerAnn Cavoukian.

Sparked by a complaint from New Democrat MPP Peter Tabuns, who is also the most effective questioner on the committee, the probe revealed that senior political staff in McGuinty’s office were routinely deleting all emails in what she found was likely an attempt to avoid scrutiny.

Cavoukian herself appeared at the committee just before McGuinty.

She was there to answer questions and rebut testimony last week from the former premier’s chief of staff, Chris Morley, to the effect that there were so many rules telling staff to press delete that he counted 99 separate ones and golly, how was a body to keep track of it all?

In very neutral language, Cavoukian showed that  Morley’s 99 rules are a crock. They boil down to far fewer, she said, and there are actually only four categories of records that need not be maintained and there is, anyway, no mandatory requirement to delete any of them.

“It is called the Archives and Record-Keeping Act,” Cavoukian noted dryly, “not Record-Deleting Act.”

Her point was that the legislative thrust is on document retention, not deletion, and anyone with half a wit would and should have known that.

A casual exchange with Tabuns towards the end of Cavoukian’s testimony nicely illustrates that ordinary common practice is the opposite of the McGuinty senior ranks.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/national/Citizen+McGuinty+even+more+hyp...

-------------------------------------------------

 

Deleted gas-plant email trail

Ann Cavoukian, Ontario's information and privacy commissioner, on former Premier Dalton McGuinty's testimony on illegally deleted gas-plant emails

"Evan please, this in not rocket science!" Laughing

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/Politics/ID/2393973394/

Krago

At this rate, the Libs could be in opposition by Labour Day!

Former minister Margarett Best resigning as MPP

David Young

How much does it cost to hold a by-election when an elected M.P.P. resigns? (I know...the same amount as if the M.P.P. died!)

Perhaps the political parties that have members resign should be forced to pay the costs, since people vote for candidates believing that they will be there for the full term.

 

onlinediscountanvils

Krago wrote:

At this rate, the Libs could be in opposition by Labour Day!

Former minister Margarett Best resigning as MPP

Having outlasted Best, Madeleine Meilleur has nothing left to prove, so I can only hope she'll be the next to go.

onlinediscountanvils
Policywonk

Krago wrote:

At this rate, the Libs could be in opposition by Labour Day!

Former minister Margarett Best resigning as MPP

Not likely; the NDP would never support the Conservatives, and I don't think the Liberals will be forced into an election when the legislature is not in session.

felixr

These byelections are all winnable by the ONDP. They are all occuring in future target ridings for the NDP, which is why the federal NDP should be keenly interested. Being byelections, the ONDP can through every resource at them. These byelections will be an excellent test of the ONDP's mettle and organizational readiness for a future election.

David Young

Another scenario to consider?

Wynne waits untill the last moment to schedule the by-elections (at least the first ones due) and then 'to spare the taxpayers of Ontario the expense', she decides that a provincial election should be held, and therefore (ramming it down the electorate's throats time-and-time-again) that they should re-elect the Premier who acts so responsibly towards the province's finances.

Does anyone see this as a possibility?

 

janfromthebruce

onlinediscountanvils wrote:

[url=http://www.am980.ca/news/local/story.aspx?ID=1994720]Ken Coran: like a BOSS[/url]

Yes, the Lib cabinet including Wynne all voted for anti union Bill #115, and now here comes Anti union boss. Looks like the riding association is miffed at the parachut candidate being dropped in their laps.

Now what was all that anti govt rhetoric all about and the sacrifices the teachers made?

autoworker

David Young wrote:

Another scenario to consider?

Wynne waits untill the last moment to schedule the by-elections (at least the first ones due) and then 'to spare the taxpayers of Ontario the expense', she decides that a provincial election should be held, and therefore (ramming it down the electorate's throats time-and-time-again) that they should re-elect the Premier who acts so responsibly towards the province's finances.

Does anyone see this as a possibility?

 

Why not simply call a 'back to school' election?

Stockholm

David Young wrote:

Another scenario to consider?

Wynne waits untill the last moment to schedule the by-elections (at least the first ones due) and then 'to spare the taxpayers of Ontario the expense', she decides that a provincial election should be held, and therefore (ramming it down the electorate's throats time-and-time-again) that they should re-elect the Premier who acts so responsibly towards the province's finances.

Does anyone see this as a possibility?

 

I don't think this will happen for several reasons.

 

1. Wynne last week explicitly ruled out calling an early election and saud she would try to make the minority government work for as long as possible. There was no wriggle room in her statement.

2. The Liberals could lose all five byelections - they are still in power. If they have a general election, they cannot control what might happen and they may well lose power altogether. Being in power is ALWAYS better than being out of power.

3. I think the Libs will use the byelections as a testing ground - if they win most of the seats it will give them momentum heading into the fall session and they will know what works. If they lose all or most of the byelections, they will go back to the drawing board!

infracaninophile infracaninophile's picture

Now what was all that anti govt rhetoric all about and the sacrifices the teachers made?

 

OSSTF has a history of turncoat leaders. After being a champion of workers rights Earl Manners became a highly-paid advisor to the management side, raking in the big $$$ and working against his former colleagues. A fellow whose name I forget from the former Toronto Board (Chris something) did the same thing.

Unions ought to have a clause in the contract of an elected leader preventing them from accepting employment from the opposition after they quit. You can't tell me they don't leak strategy and other formerly confidential info to their new bosses. 

Junkyard Dog

Does anyone see this as a possibility?

It certainly looks plausible to me. And you know, on a personal level, Wynne gives off a vibe that is pretty non-threatening. I doubt it's an act, either; she genuinely seems like a pleasant enough woman. She's definitely more appealing on a purely personal basis than an arrogant prick like McGuinty, and comes off as far more human than Hudak. (Not that the latter is such an accomplishment, being that Hudak's about as cuddly as a rattlesnake.) The Liberals may be counting on that factor - combined with the "fiscal responsibility" card, natch - to be enough to carry the next election.

adma

felixr wrote:

These byelections are all winnable by the ONDP. They are all occuring in future target ridings for the NDP, which is why the federal NDP should be keenly interested. Being byelections, the ONDP can through every resource at them. These byelections will be an excellent test of the ONDP's mettle and organizational readiness for a future election.

 

I'd agree that they're all "winnable" and worth putting effort into; however, byelection aside, as it presently stands I reckon you'd need a pretty generous definition of "futute target riding" if Ottawa South is part of the equation.  Or at least, you'd need to reduce the "non-targets" to a rump of Oakvilles and Vaughans and Don Valley Wests.

Though interesting to consider how as it presently stands, "next least likely" is the old Ruth Grier stronghold of Etobicoke-Lakeshore.  (OTOH it's the kind of "next least likely" that I *would* keep on "target reserve".)

David Young

Would someone more in the know please confirm for me that there aren't municipal elections this fall in Ontario, as there are in Quebec, which could affect the timing of these by-elections.

 

Krago

The newly minted Ontario Liberal candidate in London West says he can’t recall when he stopped being a New Democrat.

http://www.lfpress.com/2013/07/02/ken-coran-fuzzy-on-ndp-ties

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The Ontario NDP would have been happy to have this newly minted Liberal running for them. I can't for the life of me figure out why the average voter doesn't see any difference between the Liberals and NDP. Hell the same people can run for either party and get cabinet posts.

Quote:

Acclaimed Tuesday night to run for the Grits in a hotly anticipated Aug. 1 byelection, the retired teachers’ union boss acknowledged he had been an NDP member, though he struggled when pushed by The Free Press to provide a timeline for his departure.

But NDP MP Irene Mathyssen says she remembers it clearly — and claims it was at most 18 months ago that Coran was a party member, and he could have run for the New Democrats provincially.

“It’s most disappointing,” she said of Coran, who considers Mathyssen, a fellow former teacher, a friend.

“I think Ken is going to have to answer some pretty tough questions,” Mathyssen said. “We would have been very happy to have provided (an) opportunity (for him to run as a New Democrat).”

http://www.lfpress.com/2013/07/02/ken-coran-fuzzy-on-ndp-ties

Krago
janfromthebruce

David Young wrote:

Would someone more in the know please confirm for me that there aren't municipal elections this fall in Ontario, as there are in Quebec, which could affect the timing of these by-elections.

 

2014

janfromthebruce

kropotkin1951 wrote:

The Ontario NDP would have been happy to have this newly minted Liberal running for them. I can't for the life of me figure out why the average voter doesn't see any difference between the Liberals and NDP. Hell the same people can run for either party and get cabinet posts.

Quote:

Acclaimed Tuesday night to run for the Grits in a hotly anticipated Aug. 1 byelection, the retired teachers’ union boss acknowledged he had been an NDP member, though he struggled when pushed by The Free Press to provide a timeline for his departure.

But NDP MP Irene Mathyssen says she remembers it clearly — and claims it was at most 18 months ago that Coran was a party member, and he could have run for the New Democrats provincially.

“It’s most disappointing,” she said of Coran, who considers Mathyssen, a fellow former teacher, a friend.

“I think Ken is going to have to answer some pretty tough questions,” Mathyssen said. “We would have been very happy to have provided (an) opportunity (for him to run as a New Democrat).”

http://www.lfpress.com/2013/07/02/ken-coran-fuzzy-on-ndp-ties

There is a terrific NDP candidate, Peggy Sattler, who is running for the NPD. It was a highly contested nomination meeting with 2 other candidates who vied for the nomination. If Ken had been interested, he could have run. He actually endorsed Peggy as the NDP candidate so it's all quite weird.

There are now OSSTF members who are making a point of making trips to help the NDP secure this riding and openly working against Ken. They see him as a hypercrite.

Please try to keep up although I understand when one is not from Ontario.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

janfromthebruce wrote:

Please try to keep up although I understand when one is not from Ontario.

What a snarky little comment that has no relation to my post.

Have a nice day to you to.

Brian Glennie

The ONDP's fundraising campaign for the Aug 1st byelections is called "Run to Win". I know this because I got an e-mail from the Co-Chair of the Party's Candidate Search Committee, Adam Giambrone. Maybe it's just me but there seems to be kind of a mixed message here.

Geoff

Krago wrote:
The newly minted Ontario Liberal candidate in London West says he can’t recall when he stopped being a New Democrat.
">http://www.lfpress.com/2013/07/02/ken-coran-fuzzy-on-ndp-ties

He stopped being a New Democrat when he started being an a#@%!  Just ask the teachers he sold down the river.  It should surprise no one that he's running for the Liberals. 

adma

Re Ken Coran: let's keep in mind what happened next door in Elgin-Middlesex-London federally in 2011.  2008 NDP candidate Ryan Dolby was IIRC set to run again, but withdrew at the last minute to support the Liberals: better a potential governing party than a perennial also-ran, y'know--yet another one of those media stories that served to marginallize the they-can't-win Dippers as per usual, etc.  But then the Orange Crush hit; and come E-day, the NDP in EML got nearly 25% of the vote, almost doubling the Liberal share...

janfromthebruce

good reminder adma. I think this situation is quite different as Ken has come late to game. Both the NDP and Cons have been out campaigning, knocking on doors and so on for a month or so. There are also, as Geoff noted, a lot of upset teachers.

ctrl190

Deputy Mayor Doug Holiday throws his hat in the ring in Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/07/04/holyday_to_run_for_ontario_tories_in_etobicokelakeshore.html

nicky

It is interesting that that the Liberals have recruited City Councilor Peter Milczyn to run for them in Lakeshore,

He is a Ford ally and a right wing presence on council. This shows how shallow are the Liberals' claims to be progressive. They have always used the worst elements of the Toronto City Council as their farm team for federal and provincial politics.

toaster

nicky wrote:
It is interesting that that the Liberals have recruited City Councilor Peter Milczyn to run for them in Lakeshore, He is a Ford ally and a right wing presence on council. This shows how shallow are the Liberals' claims to be progressive. They have always used the worst elements of the Toronto City Council as their farm team for federal and provincial politics.

It's not reflective on Wynne so much as it is on the local Liberal riding association.

onlinediscountanvils

[url=http://noraloreto.ca/2013/07/04/ken-coran-the-ultimate-betrayal/]Ken Coran: The ultimate betrayal[/url]

Nora Loreto wrote:
For union members and progressive people, Coran’s appointment is a reminder that our victories will not be won at Queen’s Park, no matter what the outcome is of this election. If 15 per cent off car insurance, in two years, maybe, is the best the NDP can win when it holds the balance of power, and if the Liberals are just mini Harrisites who take longer to wreak the same havoc, policies that will make peoples’ lives better from Queen’s Park are a long way off.

There is power in collective bargaining and there is power in the streets. In an era where the power wielded by legislatures across Canada resembles more a Medieval fiefdom than a modern democracy, Canadians must rely on extra-parliamentary channels like never before.

And when movement leaders sell out their movements on a dime, we have to take back our movements, challenge our leadership and be clear that if they betray us, we won’t forget.

josh

 

Forum Research surveys show the New Democrats should romp to victory in Windsor-Tecumseh on Aug. 1 while the Tories could win London West — and possibly even former premier Dalton McGuinty’s seat of Ottawa South.

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/07/05/ontario_liberals_on_track_to_lose_seats_to_pcs_ndp.html

Stockholm

The really big news in that poll is that the Liberals are running third in london West and it looks like their decisions to run the former OSSTF Pres. Ken Coran has totally backfired. The NDP is only 7 points behind the PCs - time for all the teachers unions to drop Coran like a hot potato and get behind Peggy Sattler of the NDP

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