Ontario polling - June 26, 2011

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Doug
Ontario polling - June 26, 2011

It seems those Tory Taxman McGuinty ads are really having an effect. Andrea Horwath isn't far from making a play for Official Opposition.

 

Forum Research - June 21-22, 2011

 

PC - 41%

Liberal - 26%

NDP - 22%

Green - 8%

 

Doug

This sort of thing isn't going to help the McGuinty crew. The worst Liberals seem to be able to say about the Ontario NDP platform is that it uses stock photos.

WillC

I live in hopes that the Ontario voters won't accept Conservative governments in Toronto and Ottawa at the same time. The NDP is the best place to go to stop the Tories.

What I can't understand is the "deer caught in the headlights" Liberal Party. Federally, and now provincially, they aren't able to withstand the high priced Tory ad campaigns.   The can't fight back. So far all they are able to do is quietly shrink into irrelevance.

JeffWells

Horwath is going to be a strong campaigner, and she presents a very personable alternative to Hudak and McGuinty. There is also the McGuinty fatigue, and (hopefully), aversion to electing Conservative regimes simultaneously in Ottawa, Toronto and Queen's Park. When the campaign begins in earnest and voters begin to take notice, I'm confident we'll see that reflected in the polling.

 

Tommy_Paine

I really, really don't want to see Hudak in power, Harper in Ottawa or not.  I think he's a viscious little nutbar.  But then again, you can't possibly reward the Liberals with another turn in office.  Not after the G20, Micheal Bryant, and E Health, just to name a few examples of systemic corruption.

I hope a strong showing by the ONDP can stave that off either by winning outright or causing a minority Conservative government.

Let's not lose sight of the fact that the Liberals, deprived of both the Federal and Ontario keys to the treasury are suddenly a political party with no way to atttract meaningfull support, and no way to maintain their political power structure, whether you want to characterise that as "Family Compact" or "Tammany Hall North".

It's curtains for these guys.

 

Life, the unive...

Doug wrote:

This sort of thing isn't going to help the McGuinty crew. The worst Liberals seem to be able to say about the Ontario NDP platform is that it uses stock photos.

If you ever wondered if Kinsella has lost his game or not this about proves it.  I also think he must be lying outright.  Media reports and facebook status' I read reported quite a large and energetic crowd.  If the best the Liberals can come up with is a stupid photo thing that ALL parties do and then to actually misrepresent things than we can now be sure the Liberal internal polling is even worse than the public domain poll above.

On that poll - Conservative numbers will be soft because it is mostly a parked vote.  What is clear is that McGuinty is toast. People have clearly decided one thing  - they don't want a McGuinty lead Liberal government.  They have turned against McGuinty in large measure.  The next question is where next?  The Conservative is the long term default option, but if I were the Cons I would be very scared of a Horwath led NDP.  She is the exact opposite of Hudak.  Where he oozes insencerity- she comes off as a credible, real person.   Where Hudak comes off as shallow and out of touch- Horwath seems like your neighbour who has lived through the same problems as you.

I dislike polls in general- but if this trend holds, or the Liberals continue to sink even further before the writ - all bets are off, and anyone has a shot at government.

Stockholm

I could easily see a scenario where the Liberals fall into third place in Ontario and the NDP becomes the official opposition - then the Liberals make make a deal with Hudak whereby he becomes Premier in exchange for a few cosmetic crumbs to the Liberals (ie: he decides NOT to put prisoners on chain gangs)

Olly

So the NDP has said f you to the environment in addition to its anti-tax crusade....lowering prices on key energy polluters (gas and electricity) isn't exactly good for the environment and doesn't support conservation. They are vote winners though. Have to give them credit for that, and let's face it, environmentalists aren't a big voting block. Of course so is attacking the poor is a vote winner too; Hudak's cutting off newcomer's access to social assistance for a year has scored well in opinion polling. Let's hope the NDP doesn't go there!

Life, the unive...

Ah the myopic view from the COTU.  How could we live without it.

Stockholm

I can already see the second show about to drop from the Liberal corpse and the first sign is when the Liberal bloggers start getting bitter and nasty because they know their party is going off a cliff at every level: Smitherman for mayor TOTAL FAILURE, Ignatieff for PM TOTAL FAILURE and now McGoofball will end up in a scrap heap alongside Smitherman and Iggy.

Uncle John

When Mr. Tannenbaum & Co. need the Ontario Liberal Party, I am sure they will let them know. As in the federal case, the deal has been done with the Conservatives, and the Liberals are being left to hang out to dry. Kinsella is now the 'left' voice in Sun Media. He did do a good article criticising Rob Ford for not going to the Pride parade.

Aristotleded24

Life, the universe, everything wrote:
Ah the myopic view from the COTU.  How could we live without it.

To be fair, you would think the party would have an environmental section to its platform, which it currently doesn't. I would certainly look forward to hearing the NDP's plans in this regard.

Stockholm

I read that the whole environmental platform is to be announced at a later date.

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:
I read that the whole environmental platform is to be announced at a later date.

Thanks. Please do keep us posted when it's rolled out.

adma

The way I'm mentally figuring things out using American-style labelling, there's surprisingly few "safe" Liberal seats out there--the surprising bulk of them are tossups or at most leaners.  Seems like most of them are poised upon the hoary balsa wood of "not Harris/not Rae"; and retirements aren't making things easier...

Sean in Ottawa

Ipsos Cons 42; Liberals 31; NDP 22.

There are variables-- if the NDP can produce a good campaign and gain support some of that will come from the Cons as well -- hopefully enough to remove the majority support.

NDP support going up when the Cons are in power is likely to come form the Liberals but when the Liberals are in power it can easily come form the Cons as well-- a rising opposition party often hurts the other opposition parties first because it is a referendum on the government and people that are opposed to the government are searching for options.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Ontario+Tories+open+point+lead+over+ru...

deb93

I've always felt that Andrea Horvath's messages and responses came off as too much 'canned party line', but lately she's been going off message a bit and revealing more of her own personality. I hope for more of that as I think it plays well with the public who don't know her as well as party insiders.

Olly

The NDP platform is pretty right wing. Very little on poverty, basically just committing to the recommendations that will be put forh by the social assistance review commission, which the Liberals put in place (and indexing social assistance rates with a price tag on it that is probably half or less of what it would actually cost to do it). Wonder what NDP poverty activists running for office think of that one? Really bad on the environment by committing to underpricing gas and energy. And tax cuts. A lot of it is pretty indistinguishable from the Conservatives. Honestly, it probably makes them more of a force with the electorate than their typical lefty stuff, but certainly strays from their principles.

Olly

The NDP platform is pretty right wing. Very little on poverty, basically just committing to the recommendations that will be put forh by the social assistance review commission, which the Liberals put in place (and indexing social assistance rates with a price tag on it that is probably half or less of what it would actually cost to do it). Wonder what NDP poverty activists running for office think of that one? Really bad on the environment by committing to underpricing gas and energy. And tax cuts. A lot of it is pretty indistinguishable from the Conservatives. Honestly, it probably makes them more of a force with the electorate than their typical lefty stuff, but certainly strays from their principles.

Life, the unive...

Thanks for posting the talking points from the Liberal war room.  I haven't seen them in a few days and I was feeling lonely.

Stockholm

The Liberals will never implement anything recommended by the social assistance review commission. It will just gather dust. They have been in power for eight years and welfare rates are still at Mike Harris levels and they have never lifted a finger to improve them or to reverse a single solitary one of Harris's cuts to social assistance. The Ontario Liberals talked about a poverty strategy - then it sank without a trace.

We saw this game plan from the Lieberals in the federal election when Ignatieff tried to position the Liberals as being to the left of the NDP - look where it got them. For better or for worse, the NDP brand is so heavily (almost too heavily) associated with being "tax and spend" and being compassionate and environmentalist to a fault - that the Liberals will never get people to see Andrea Horwath as 'another Mike Harris".

Aristotleded24

Life, the universe, everything wrote:
Thanks for posting the talking points from the Liberal war room.  I haven't seen them in a few days and I was feeling lonely.

It seems that Liberal attacks are devited primarily to the NDP and not Hudak.

Stockholm

The Liberals are busy getting "devout Catholic" Dalton McGuinty who used to brag about being "pro-life" to attack Hudak for having a hidden agenda to stop funding abortions.

Olly

The Liberals implemented the Ontario Child Benefit. That's better than raising welfare rates as far as I'm concerned. The NDP is committing to do nothing more on social assistance than the Liberals have already done. They're certainly not committing to the $100 food supplement some activists have been calling for or reversing any of the Harris cuts.

Aristotleded24

The NDP is also calling for a job creation strategy, for example, a Buy Ontario Program. Creating decent jobs will provide opportunities for people on social assistance to improve their standing and they would no longer live in poverty.

Life, the unive...

Amazing you know this given that the full NDP platform has not been released.  Liberals are magical.

Remember the fuss over this by Liberal reporters.  When asked about why she hadn't released the full platform Horwath quipped - "I'm a woman I know not to give it all up right away."  The Liberal media proxies even tried to make an issue of this.

So now those magical Liberals already know what is in the full platform.  Maybe I will have to vote for a party with that kind of mystical power.

Stockholm

I think the Liberals are in disarray trying to figure out how to go after the NDP. Under normal circumstances, they would fall back on the "blarney stone" of warning about how the NDP means more Bob Rae-style incompetence - but for obvious reasons that can't be done anymore - so they are just grasping at straws.

Stockholm

Let's wait and see since there is much more of the NDP platform to come...one thing for sure is that the Ontario Liberals will forge ahead with their suite of sleazy public-private partnership boondoggles and they'll have a firesale of government assets etc...

Everything you need to know about the Ontario Liberals is that their "star candidate" (definitely the dimmest star in the galaxy!) in Trinity-Spadina is that Rosedale matron Sarah Thomson who was backed by the Tory family and whose platform in her ill-fated mayoralty run was consisted of her wearing furs and pearls and spouting rightwing nostrums in her inimical Marie Antoinette "let them eat cake" style. I expect her to campaign with her toy poodle waving at people from her Mercedes.

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:
I think the Liberals are in disarray trying to figure out how to go after the NDP. Under normal circumstances, they would fall back on the "blarney stone" of warning about how the NDP means more Bob Rae-style incompetence - but for obvious reasons that can't be done anymore - so they are just grasping at straws.

I wouldn't put it past the Liberals to try.

Olly

If I were the Liberals I'd fight the NDP by running on their record. They're probably the most progressive government in Canada, including a lot of NDP governments.

Ok, curious to see if anything more comes out of the NDP platform on poverty. Michael Prue was quoted in NOW today saying poverty isn't a vote winner, so not sure there will be, but we'll see. Certainly don't expect they'll be raising welfare any more than the Liberals.

Aristotleded24

Olly wrote:
If I were the Liberals I'd fight the NDP by running on their record. They're probably the most progressive government in Canada, including a lot of NDP governments.

Since the Manitoba government bought out the capacity of a private clinic (effectively nationalizing it) and has been reversing the privatization in health care, I'm assuming that health care services in Ontario are high quality for everyone and that the privatization done under Harris was completely undone under McGuinty?

Life, the unive...

Olly wrote:

If I were the Liberals I'd fight the NDP by running on their record. They're probably the most progressive government in Canada, including a lot of NDP governments.

More Liberal magic

LHINs? - poof    gone

rural school closures because we still have the Harris funding formula - poof     gone

Ombudsman oversight on a number of important issues - poof    gone

massive privatization of our electrial system- poof     gone

Melancthon quarry - poof    gone

Jail closings in Walkerton/Owen Sound/Sarnia destroying local support connection - poof   gone

HST increasing costs of Ontario's must vulnerable - poof      gone

 

There's more, but Liberal magic is so strong it shields all viewers.

 

Stockholm

I actually don't think the Liberals under McGuinty have been a "terrible" government. They've been so-so in substance. The problem is more the usual Liberal problem of arrogance and attitude of entitlement and having a lot of really gross people as their standard bearers (It would be worth defeating the Liberals just to no longer have to listen to Dwight Duncan doing his Diefenbaker imitation anymore - and Smitherman was a reprehensible human being beyond belief). Also, let's face it - possessing the provincial government of Ontario is the last card the Liberal Party really has across Canada. Once that last thread gets snipped, the Liberals will be left with just PEI and they will really be at death's door as a political force.

Life, the unive...

I think a rural and urban Ontarian would have differ greatly as to whether or not the McGuinty government has been "terrible".  Most people out here would vote yes.   I don't know what will happen elsewhere but the Liberals are done in rural/small town Ontario.  No one believes them anymore after having been burnt so many times.  That means that we are at least heading to a minority government of some sort.  

Stockholm

If things are so "terrible" in rural Ontario - how come no one blames the federal government and stops voting Tory federally - given that rural Ontario is the CPC monolith!

Aristotleded24

Life, the universe, everything wrote:
I think a rural and urban Ontarian would have differ greatly as to whether or not the McGuinty government has been "terrible".

I'd even suggest that McGuinty's refusal to upload municipal services was key in undermining former Toronto Mayor David Miller, setting the stage for the election of Rob Ford.

sanizadeh

Olly wrote:

If I were the Liberals I'd fight the NDP by running on their record. They're probably the most progressive government in Canada, including a lot of NDP governments.

Yeah... fighting the NDP instead of conservatives. That strategy worked so well for Ignatieff.

Doug
Life, the unive...

Those internal polls must be worse than anyone expected!!!

Aristotleded24

Since cutting down those trees to make pamphlets that are going to end up as litter is a responsible environmental thing to do.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MsugpLYy2A]If you vote NDP, do you even know who you're voting for?[/url]

Doug

Does it much matter at this point? I have no idea who my local PC candidate is either. Worry if the party gets through August without most nominations being done.

Doug

Does it much matter at this point? I have no idea who my local PC candidate is either. Worry if the party gets through August without most nominations being done.

Stockholm

The Ontario Liberals still don't have any candidates to replace their quitters in Davenport, don valley east, Essex, Windsor West etc...oh well I'm sure they can find some derelicts who register 98.6 on rectal thermometer who are willing to be sacrificial lambs in those seats that theOLP now has zero chance of winning

Life, the unive...

Aristotleded24 wrote:

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MsugpLYy2A]If you vote NDP, do you even know who you're voting for?[/url]

After awhile the childish, churlish desperation of the Liberals will start to further fuel their decline.   It seems the Ontario Liberals learned nothing, or maybe everything, from the Iggy plan debacle.  Bye bye Liberals, please do let the door hit you on the ass on the way out.  It is the least you deserve.

lil.Tommy

Aristotleded24 wrote:

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MsugpLYy2A]If you vote NDP, do you even know who you're voting for?[/url]

At first i was pretty insulted, the "university undergrads and teenagers" comment linked to a picture of a kid getting trashed, is pretty desperate. But i thought about it, and i remember reading the posts of the performance thus far of our young MPs... the liberals have dug themselves into another whole, and ostracized another group of voters. They have basically said if your young you have no right to be in politics; if your not a lawyer/banker/elite you have no right to be running... the (mentioned above) arrogance is just spilling out. I love the "finding new people is hard..." comment, oh yes, thats why they gave themselves a 30% raise wasn't it?

 

But to address the environmental question... its already been poked at by david suzuki (that hit hard)

http://theliberalscarf.blogspot.com/ BUT i know the full platform has not been released, i'm not worried yet but does anyone have an idea what the environ platform might look like... so that we can quel davids fears

Olly

"I'd even suggest that McGuinty's refusal to upload municipal services was key in undermining former Toronto Mayor David Miller, setting the stage for the election of Rob Ford."

McGuinty did upload a number of services. Welfare and ODSP will be fully covered by the province for example instead of cost shared 20%. That's a huge savings for cities. The gist of what I'm getting from this board is that people think the Liberals should move right? (Because Ignatieff failed at the federal level on a leftish platform) Interesting.

lil.Tommy

Olly wrote:

"I'd even suggest that McGuinty's refusal to upload municipal services was key in undermining former Toronto Mayor David Miller, setting the stage for the election of Rob Ford."

McGuinty did upload a number of services. Welfare and ODSP will be fully covered by the province for example instead of cost shared 20%. That's a huge savings for cities. The gist of what I'm getting from this board is that people think the Liberals should move right? (Because Ignatieff failed at the federal level on a leftish platform) Interesting.

Most of us are pretty partisan i think, some more than others. And as mentioned already the way the board feels about the ON Liberals varies. I agree with Stock, McGuinty's government has been so-so, in some cases i've supported the direction they have gone in principle (like the Green energy act) if not supporting the way in which is done. But i see them as centre-right typical blah moderate liberals.

Sean in Ottawa

I think it is fair to say the Liberals have been all over the road on many policies so it is hard to categorize them.

As well some of us are still smarting from Harris even a decade on-- in this province the contention that the Cons and Liberals are the same just does not wash-- they are different that is for sure. But the Liberals are not particularly progressive (look at the design of the health tax for one example).

The Conservatives have a reputation of being nasty, uncaring and ideologically narrow. The Liberals have a right-wing bias to much of their policies but without the intentional nastiness, at other moments the Liberals can be arrogant, wasteful and remarkably blind to the implications of many of their policies. The Liberals cause pain by accident and lack of care. The Conservatives in this province cause pain because they want to. That does make a difference some times and degrees are relevant.

Still, in spite of noting that the Liberals are better than the Conservatives, I would no more vote for them than want diabetes because it is not as bad as stomach cancer

Certainly many here are partisan -- myself included -- but that does not prevent all of us from considering things in a balanced and objective way.

edmundoconnor

Olly, if the Ontario Liberals are so gosh-darn progressive, then why did they collapse like a house of cards when bigots started complaining about the revised sex-ed program? When you pander to bigots, your personal views become irrelevant.

takeitslowly

I was handing out paper at kennedy station, and I talked to several people who were also handing out pamphlets for the Ontario liberals, the flyer attacked the NDP for failing on environmental issue. I think they are pretty desperate to use David Suzuki's quote in an attempt to smear the NDP.  

 

 

If the Ontario Liberals were so progressive, why cant they pass a bill protecting gender identity and gender expression after all these years being in power?

 

Its really hard to like the Liberals or feel bad about them losing.

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