Ontario Polling - started March 30, 2015

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NorthReport
Ontario Polling - started March 30, 2015

+

please close out the other thread with the typo and thanks.

NorthReport

Ontario Liberals losing votes to NDP, PCs in the lead: poll

PCs - 34%

NDP - 27%

Libs - 29%

 

Seat Projections:

PCs - 52 seats [3 short of majority)

NDP - 32 seats (Official Opposition)

Libs - 23 seats (third party status)

 

http://globalnews.ca/news/1910948/ontario-liberals-losing-votes-to-ndp-p...

 

Geoff

Given that there's no election until 2018, to what end are we making polling and seat projections?  Just wondering.

Brachina

 I knew Andrea would bounce back, I've been a fan of Andrea's since before she was leader and she made occasional.appearance.on CHCH, or what ever it was called at that point. Andrea got shit advice.from from certain people aho are now gain and she's back to acting like the Andrea Horwath we know and love.

 

 Add to that Wynne's ally Trudeau's mania is just starting to wane, while Wynne is still ekbroiled in scandal and its a perfect opportunity for Andrea.

 

 But Mulcair could be the first to reap the benifits of it if we see the federal NDP starting to get 27% in Ontario.

ctrl190

Huge momentum for the Ontario NDP. Forum has the ONDP polling at 36%

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/05/13/patrick-browns-leaders...

NorthReport

Thank ct

Wow, NDP leading in the polls in Ontario due to the Liberals mismanagement.

 

NDP - 36%

PC - 33%

Libs - 24%

 

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/287/liberals-in-3rd-place/

josh

Yeah, but Forum are a bunch of Liberal shills, so it doesn't count.

GregbythePond

And, it's still three and a half years before provincial preference polling info matters a damn in Ontario. This info may be some boost to the federal NDP, though they still seem to be lagging there according to other sources.

adma

And, of course, don't discount a "Notley bump" benefiting Horwath.

bekayne

http://globalnews.ca/news/2010547/liberals-losing-ground-in-ontario-but-...

If an election were held tomorrow the Liberals would lead with 34 per cent of the decided popular vote, down five points from 39 per cent in last year’s election, according to the Ipsos poll.

The Progressive Conservatives would follow at 32 per cent with newly-elected leader Patrick Brown and the NDP round out the third spot with 25 per cent of the decided popular vote. The Green Party under Mike Schreiner would follow at eight per cent of the vote.

 

NorthReport

Ipsos Reid - May 20, 2015

Party / GE '14 / May 20 '15 / Change

Lib / 39% / 34% / Down 5%

Cons / 31% / 32% / Up 1%

NDP / 24% / 25% / Up 1%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Ontario_general_election#Opinion_polls

NorthReport

Andrea Horwath now leads Kathleen Wynne by 5% in the Best Premier category.

Wynne Liberals (34%) Losing Ground but Hold Tenuous Lead over PCs and New Leader Patrick Brown (32%)Orange Crush Not Materializing in Ontario as NDP (25%) Support Steady with Last Election, But Horwath is Boosted on “Best Premier" Choice (36%, +3) as Wynne Tumbles (31%, -9 points) Since 2014 E-Day

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6861

NorthReport

Ontario New Democrats solidify first place, Liberals trailing in third, exclusive poll shows

The Ontario New Democrats are joining their federal colleagues at the front of the pack as they solidify their lead in a new poll. The province’s NDP is in first place in an exclusive Forum Research polls showing the party could take a plurality of seats, albeit not enough for a majority, if an election


 

bekayne

Change from May:

NDP  35 (-1)/ PC 32 (-1)/ Lib 26 (+2)

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Best Premier

Horwath - 29%

Brown - 21%

Wynne - 21%

Wrong. Horwath is at 20%, not 29%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/310/strong-ndp-minority-government-seen/

In a reflection of our findings in May, all three party leaders are tied for who would make the best premier, with Kathleen Wynne and Patrick Brown at just over one fifth (21% each) and Andrea Horwath at one fifth (20%). A similar proportion think none of them is up to the task (23%), and just fewer don’t have an opinion (15%).

bekayne

bekayne wrote:

...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Thanks, it was hard to read. Actually Andrea Horwath is the most popular leader 

NDP - 35%

PCs - 32%

Libs - 26%

 

NDP maintains lead in Ontario

Strong NDP minority government if vote held today

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/310/strong-ndp-minority-government-seen/

jerrym

Here's the full story: 

Quote:

NDP minority seen If these results are projected up to a 107 seat Legislature, the NDP would capture a minority of 45, 9 fewer than required for a majority, while the PCs would take 35 seats and the Liberals 27.

Horwath most popular leader, Patrick Brown least popular Andrea Horwath has the approval of close to 4-in-10 voters (38%), while her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a neutral to positive +6. About 3-in-10 approve of the Premier (29%) and her net is a very negative -31. While just one fifth approve of Patrick Brown (19%), most don’t know him (53%) so his net score is a relatively modest -10. Three leaders tied for best premier

In a reflection of our findings in May, all three party leaders are tied for who would make the best premier, with Kathleen Wynne and Patrick Brown at just over one fifth (21% each) and Andrea Horwath at one fifth (20%). A similar proportion think none of them is up to the task (23%), and just fewer don’t have an opinion (15%).

“Whether this a reflection of the NDP victory in Alberta, or Tom Mulcair’s new prominence as the darling of the national electorate, it is clear the NDP have established a winning beach head in Ontario, and it isn’t going away soon," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. 

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/310/strong-ndp-minority-government-seen/

 

ctrl190

Those are very impressive numbers, especially considering the knives were out less than 8 months ago.

Geoff

It's good to see positive numbers, but, with the election three years away, it might be a tad early to read much into the polls.  At least some of that positivity may be a temporary glow from the feds.  Nevertheless, point taken - high numbers are always better than low numbers.

bekayne
mark_alfred

PCs in the lead.  Well, given the last federal election, Ontario is quite right-wing.  So it's either gonna be the multinational-corporate-toady Libs or Cons that win here.

Aristotleded24

mark_alfred wrote:
PCs in the lead.  Well, given the last federal election, Ontario is quite right-wing.  So it's either gonna be the multinational-corporate-toady Libs or Cons that win here.

What I'm interested in is the possibilitiy of the Liberals falling to third place, as I thought there was clearly that potentiality in 2011. The main reason that the Liberals are viable is that Ontario progressives see the Liberals as the default not-conservative option, and the lazy media reports as if what is happening in Ontario is reflective of the rest of the country. That's why the Liberals went after Horwath as strongly as they did in 2014 (not that Horwath didn't make other mistakes) because they knew that without Ontario their image of being a viable party would shatter.

To put this in perspective, imagine the national shockwaves that would have resulted from a third place finish for McGuinty in 2011, with Horwath as the main opposition leader to Premier Tim Hudak. Or let's even suppose that Wynne had managed to place third in 2014. What if either scenario resulted in a PC minority? Would the Liberals have stood up to Hudak in either case? Imagine the impact any of these scenarios would have had on the Liberal and NDP brands nationally.

mark_alfred

Aristotleded24 wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:
PCs in the lead.  Well, given the last federal election, Ontario is quite right-wing.  So it's either gonna be the multinational-corporate-toady Libs or Cons that win here.

To put this in perspective, imagine the national shockwaves that would have resulted from a third place finish for McGuinty in 2011, with Horwath as the main opposition leader to Premier Tim Hudak. Or let's even suppose that Wynne had managed to place third in 2014. What if either scenario resulted in a PC minority? Would the Liberals have stood up to Hudak in either case? Imagine the impact any of these scenarios would have had on the Liberal and NDP brands nationally.

Hard to say.  If Hudak had won he likely would have begun privatizing Hydro One, and the Liberals would have squawked that this is all the fault of the NDP taking votes away from the Liberals, and many people would have bought it.  Instead, it's now the Liberals who are privatizing Hydro One.  Ontario is a hopeless case, I'm afraid.

ctrl190

It will be interesting to see what happens in Spring 2018. That's a century in politics, but I'm sensing a bit of "Wynne/Ontario Liberal fatigue," and not just among the usual suspects - the tabloids and talk radio - but among their natural constituencies, like the urban chattering classes. By 2018 that will 15 years of Liberal Ontario rule, that is more than the Rae Era + Common Sense Revolution combined. The question is whether or not Patrick Brown can appeal to the mainstream, and not just the PC policy conventions, and whether Horwath can take heed of the recent disappointing federal and provincial NDP performances.

NorthReport
mark_alfred

Quote:

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1097 Ontario voters, 4-in-10 will vote Progressive Conservative if an election were held today (41%), while just more than one quarter would vote Liberal (28%). Just less than a quarter will vote for the NDP (23%).The Green Party takes a share of about one twentieth (6%), while few will vote for any other party (2%).

This stands in contrast to last month, when the PC vote share was relatively stable (42%), but the Liberal vote was sharply higher (35%). The New Democrat vote share has also increased significantly (from 17%) since last month. It appears the lost Liberal votes have gone to the NDP.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2582/liberal-vote-share-tumbles-in-on...

ctrl190

New Forum poll:

 

PCs - 45%

Liberals - 25%

NDP - 23%

 

If the election were held today, NDP would be the official opposition.

mark_alfred

Appears some blue libs went PC, whereas in the previous poll it was orange libs going NDP.  Libs are shrinking.  Hopefully the NDP can gain even more.

Geoff

ctrl190 wrote:

New Forum poll:

 

PCs - 45%

Liberals - 25%

NDP - 23%

 

If the election were held today, NDP would be the official opposition.

However, we'd be in the same pickle as we were after the 2011 federal election. Yes, we formed the official opposition, but the Conservatives won a majority.

Then, when voters finally got sick of Harper, guess who won the next election - not the NDP. History may not repeat itself, but it sometimes runs in parallel lines. The thought of a Patrick Brown majority is something to be abhorred, however many seats the NDP wins.

Aristotleded24

If the amount of road construction going on in Northern Ontario I saw when I was there last month is any indication, the Liberals think they can steal a great many seats from the NDP.

swallow

Why is the thought of a Patrick Brown majority something to be abhorred? 

Not disagreeing, just curious. 

Geoff

swallow wrote:

Why is the thought of a Patrick Brown majority something to be abhorred? 

Not disagreeing, just curious. 

Handing Brown a majority would have the same impact as giving a majority to Stephen Harper was in 2011. The fact that the NDP formed the official opposition did nothing to stop Harper from carrying out his agenda. If we formed the official opposition in a Brown majority the NDP would be just as powerless.

The only hope for the NDP is to hold the balance of power in a minority government (unless you think the NDP has a chance of forming a majority government, and there's not enough kool-aid on the shelves to make me believe that).

nicky

A better hope would be a minority Con government, with an NDP opposition and the Liberals holding the balance

Stockholm

I'm not sure why we should "fear" a Patrick Brown government. Ther guy is just an opportunist who will say and do anything that is popular in the short term - how is that any different from a Liberal government?

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
I'm not sure why we should "fear" a Patrick Brown government.

It certainly would be novel and refreshing to have an election in Canada in which no candidate is such a scary monster that they need to be "stopped" at all costs.  Particularly since those "all costs" = "don't vote for the progressive".

That said, I'm bracing myself for "you can't stop Kathleen Wynne by voting Horwath!!!"

Aristotleded24

Geoff wrote:
Handing Brown a majority would have the same impact as giving a majority to Stephen Harper was in 2011. The fact that the NDP formed the official opposition did nothing to stop Harper from carrying out his agenda. If we formed the official opposition in a Brown majority the NDP would be just as powerless.

The only hope for the NDP is to hold the balance of power in a minority government (unless you think the NDP has a chance of forming a majority government, and there's not enough kool-aid on the shelves to make me believe that).

That is not true. Because the NDP was in Opposition to Harper, they were able to land serious blows on his party, and that was a key factor in making people sick of him and wanting change. Unfortunately it was the Liberals who benefitted from that.

Experience in Manitoba shows that who is in Opposition matters. Gary Filmon, contrary to his reputation, was just as right-wing as Mike Harris, Ralph Klein, and Gordon Campbell, he was just more charming and likeable. He did a great deal of damage to this province, but because he was opposed by the NDP, not only did he eventually lose the election, but the NDP went on to reverse some of the damage he had done. Have Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne moved nearly as far to undo what Harris did there?

Besides, if Wynne gets her way, Hydro will be privatized, so what's left for the PCs to do?

Geoff

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Geoff wrote:
Handing Brown a majority would have the same impact as giving a majority to Stephen Harper was in 2011. The fact that the NDP formed the official opposition did nothing to stop Harper from carrying out his agenda. If we formed the official opposition in a Brown majority the NDP would be just as powerless.

The only hope for the NDP is to hold the balance of power in a minority government (unless you think the NDP has a chance of forming a majority government, and there's not enough kool-aid on the shelves to make me believe that).

That is not true. Because the NDP was in Opposition to Harper, they were able to land serious blows on his party, and that was a key factor in making people sick of him and wanting change. Unfortunately it was the Liberals who benefitted from that.

Experience in Manitoba shows that who is in Opposition matters. Gary Filmon, contrary to his reputation, was just as right-wing as Mike Harris, Ralph Klein, and Gordon Campbell, he was just more charming and likeable. He did a great deal of damage to this province, but because he was opposed by the NDP, not only did he eventually lose the election, but the NDP went on to reverse some of the damage he had done. Have Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne moved nearly as far to undo what Harris did there?

Besides, if Wynne gets her way, Hydro will be privatized, so what's left for the PCs to do?

I don't recall any 'serious blows' on Harper. Sure, they got their licks in, but in the end, they helped to elect the Liberals.

The point is, apart from the slim possibility of holding the balance of power, things are looking grim for the NDP in 2018. Hopefully, they'll put together an inspiring election platform and turn things around. As always, hope rings eternal in the NDP.

Geoff

I see the latest provincial polling from 308.com shows the Tories at 41.8%, the Libs at 26.4%, and the NDP at 23.8%. I wonder if the growing divide between the so-Cons and the neo-Libs in Patrick Brown's Conservatives will be enough to prevent his winning a majority government. If so, the ONDP could end up holding the balance of power, a much more optimistic prospect from the way things looked in the fall.

 

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

The main complaint from Ontario Conservatives about Patrick Brown is that he is a weak waffler and equivicator. Social Conservatives and fiscal conservatives will definitely close ranks if they smell victory. With the Tories at over 40% and the Liberals and NDP at well under 30%, there is no chance of anything but a Tory majority government in Ontario. Were the Tories to dip under 40% somewhat, that would of course change.

Debater

Former federal finance minister loses Ontario PC nomination battle

Toronto lawyer Roman Baber beats Joe Oliver for chance to run in York Centre

https://ipolitics.ca/2017/01/15/former-federal-finance-minister-loses-on...

NorthReport
quizzical

wanting to vote against their own best interests again.......

NorthReport

Maybe, just maybe voters think the PCs policies are closest to their own and the PCs are listeing to them. Certainly the NDP are not, repeat not, listening to the voters. And that is how you lose, and keep losing, elections.

NorthReport

Maybe, just maybe, voters think the PCs policies are closest to what they want, and that the PCs are listening to them. Certainly the NDP are not, repeat not, listening to the voters. And that is how you lose, and keep losing, elections.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

From my perception of events in Ontario, the main thing which is driving Ontario PC support is hatred of the Ontario Liberals. Voters see the Liberals as having been in for too long, and they want a change. The other thing which is driving voter fury at the Ontario Liberals is the price of Hydro, which has gone to the moon for many consumers. 

Ontario has to cut off the sweetheart energy deals made to Ontario Liberal Party donors, so Hydro rates can return to something approaching normal. 

toaster

With the NDP at about 24%, I could still see them in 2nd in a minority government, working with the Liberals on some issues, and the Conservatives on others (read road tolls, populist issues).

The South-West will be quite a battle between the PCs and the NDP.  If the ONDP can take the Liberal vote, they will stay strong. 

They also need to have Jagmeet Singh out in and around Peel region canvassing with candidates as almost a co-leader, to help win some of those ridings.

 

 

 

NorthReport

As election looms, how low can Kathleen Wynne go? 

Electricity has become Ontario's political meme, drowning out any upbeat Liberal talking points.

A recent poll found Kathleen Wynne with a 13-per-cent approval rating — "the lowest value we have ever recorded for a sitting premier,"

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/01/14/as-election-looms-how...

Geoff

The latest poll numbers (Feb.17) point to a massive Conservative majority (PC - 42.6%; Lib - 28.8%; NDP - 23.6%).

I know there's still just over a year to go, but at this juncture, does anyone have any thoughts on the kind of NDP campaign that will put the brakes on a Tory landslide, given the unpopularity of Kathleen Wynne?

 

 

ctrl190

http://cnews.canoe.com/CNEWS/Canada/2017/02/25/22706643.html

Yikes. Wynne with an 11% approval rating.

 

 

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