Ontario Polling - started March 30, 2015

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I'm not convinced that Wynne is really this unpopular and that the PCs are this popular.  I think the high PC polling results are due to their support being regionally concentrated and of the binary "not Wynne" mid-term variety.

In this environment could see the Liberals or PCs maintaining a slim minority.  The PCs might gain some suburbs and semi-rural ridings back but there will be a rush of anti-PC voting that could benefit the Liberals.  The Liberals have a decent brand as the party of modern "progressives" (whatever that means this hour) and have a leader that strongly appeals to that group, particularly when compared to what's-he-hiding Patrick and union-hall-one-note Andrea.

I think the NDP plays well in the ridings it already has in the north, extreme south and Niagara but has no ability for growth and is on the brink in Toronto.  Hamilton is changing rapidly and there could be a surprise loss there too.  They have no momentum.  That being said, I thought the NDP's recent hydro platform was folly and then subsequently watched the Liberal gazzump them on it, so my judgment should always be viewed as suspect.


Why aren't the NDP benefiting from the massive unpopularity of Wynne?