Ontario polling thread (April 18, 2012)

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JeffWells
Ontario polling thread (April 18, 2012)

New from Environics, conducted April 10-13:

 

PC: 37% (+2 from election)

NDP: 30% (+7)

LIB: 27% (-11)

GRN: 6% (+3)

Quote:
The results may explain the more conciliatory tone taken by Premier Dalton McGuinty and Finance Minister Dwight Duncan since last weekend.

 

http://ontarionewswatch.com/onw-news.html?id=308

 

Howard

The NDP might be able to win an election like that if it could avoid the blame for a writ drop.

Given that the PCs have refused to consider the budget, this is an opportunity to steal some of their support by doing something PC supporters would like. I wonder if this is why Andrea was asking for the HST exemption for home heating fuels.

janfromthebruce

looking at the increase in Green support, I'm thinking if an election was called we'd get that extra percentage. We'd be quite competitive with the Hudak cons. I don't know if home heating would be the draw.

Stockholm

I realize this is not the right attitude to take but I am not sure that the ONDP is ready to be in power. Only 8 MPPs have any experience and I would not want have to take power with a totally inexperienced caucus with a 16 billion dollar deficit.

Life, the unive...

I guess that depends greatly on who they recruit as candidates.  NOBs you're right.  Get a team in place with lots of real life experience dealing with competative interests (which could come in a large variety of fields) and they could be okay.  Not sure that is possible, but it isn't imposibble.

janfromthebruce

I know what you are saying Stock - that said, the Cons are never shy of taking power even when we know they are so not ready to be in power - to me it's about getting good people to surround the newly elected, and help them govern competently and with a social democratic focus.

Life, the unive...

Assuming that the poll is not an outlier I think those running the ONDP have hit on something most of us missed, including probably the Liberals.  I know it has been poo-pooed around here, but the connection between the HST cut that most people can see themselves benefiting from, evennif only a little bit, combined with calling for a tax on those earning more than $500,000 has created a real problem for the Liberals.   The Liberals have been put in the position of having to oppose both a little bit of help for the average person AND taxing those reaping the most benefit from a system most people feel is squewed against them.  The Liberals are getting painted into a corner.  I'm no longer convinced the NDP is afraid of an election.  I think with the 'let's work together' approach, the moderate demands and the way Horwath has approached public comment, the ONDP might just actually be positioning themselves for an election with two vulnerable parties less ready than they seem.

Howard

You try to win when you can. Whether the ONDP is ready or not, to win or to govern, is another question. Anyways, McGuinty owes the ONDP some love and Dwight Duncan better look to his seat. What do his constituents want? Austerity without balanced budgets? The finance minister running defence for the richest and greediest of Ontario?

JeffWells

And another poll tonight, and even more promising:

 

Quote:
Ontario budget: Andrea Horwath’s tax-the-rich scheme ‘hugely popular,’ poll suggests

...

More than three-quarters of people surveyed — 78 per cent — like her idea with only 17 per cent opposed and 5 per cent unsure, according to the Forum Research poll.

“It’s hugely popular. You never see that — that’s huge,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said Wednesday.

...

The survey also found strong support for Horwath’s proposal to cap provincial executive salaries at $418,000 a year — or twice the premier’s pay. About two-thirds — 65 per cent — approve of that with only 22 per cent opposed and 13 per cent uncertain.

Forum’s interactive voice-response telephone poll of 1,084 people was conducted Tuesday.

It also reported that 60 per cent of Ontarians do not want another election with 34 per cent seeking a return to the polls and 7 per cent undecided.

But an election would apparently result in another minority government — it’s a tight three-way race with the Tories at 34 per cent, the NDP at 31 per cent, the Liberals at 28 per cent and the Greens at 5 per cent.

...

Hudak’s approval rating languishes at 24 per cent — behind McGuinty at 27 per cent — and well off of Horwath’s poll-leading 46 per cent.

...

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1163869--ontario-bud...

 

Howard

Wow! What a misread of the public by the McGuinty Liberals! They'd better fold and fold fast or Horwath has a totally winnable election on her hands. 46% approval!

Brachina

I have no doubt the Liberals will fold, I'd put money on it, its all a formality now.

I mean the Liberals are even merging those electricty company things to save 25 million,just like Andrea wanted, abit Andrea wants to go further and add Ontario Generation and stuff to it to.

Andrea owns Dalton at this point, not completely, but enough.

Sean in Ottawa

The forum poll is interesting when you consider where the strength of each party is.

No surprise:

NDP first in North 40% Cons 30% Liberals 23%

Cons first in Eastern Ontario 43% NDP second at 26% Liberals third at 24%

Liberals first in 416 at 37% to 31% for Cons and 25% for NDP

Cons first in Southwest followed by NDP at 30% and Liberals at 27%

Here is the biggie:

905 NDP in first place 35% Cons second 33% Liberals 3rd 28%

Rarely does a party win in Ontario without winning the 905.

JeffWells

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Here is the biggie:

905 NDP in first place 35% Cons second 33% Liberals 3rd 28%

Thanks for highlighting that. I didn't see that coming.

Howard

JeffWells wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Here is the biggie:

905 NDP in first place 35% Cons second 33% Liberals 3rd 28%

Thanks for highlighting that. I didn't see that coming.

To be fair, that is a three-way fight with the NDP in poll position, but still wow...just...wow. Not expected. I hope Mulcair is also paying attention to this. I bet the NDP would be doing better in Eastern Ontario with a more francophone leader. In the 416, that is where I could see the biggest voter shifts happening in an election where it is clear the Liberals are going down to defeat. If the NDP can close the gap with the Conservatives in Southwestern Ontario before any writ drop, then I would say they stand a great chance at government. Having a Hamilton leader, that did better than many probably expected in the last campaign (she has some steel AND charisma!), probably helps.

bekayne
nicky

If you look to the bottom of the new Forum poll it also shows the federal results for Ontario:

Con    36

NDP    32

Lib     24

Green   5

The Cons run 2% better than they do provincially. The NDP 1% better and the Liberals 4% worse.

The 905 numbers are C 38 N 32 Lib 21.

The big encouragement for the NDP, both fedderally and provincially is the 905, an area of historic weakness. It will also be where most of the new sears will be allocated.

 

JeffWells

 

LIB: 35.4

PC: 32.1

NDP: 26.5

 

Oh, Nanos. What are we going to do with you?

Sean in Ottawa

JeffWells wrote:

 

LIB: 35.4

PC: 32.1

NDP: 26.5

 

Oh, Nanos. What are we going to do with you?

That is provincial of course-- still goofy but not federal

NorthReport

Don't be too harsh on Nanos as he has the NDP gaining 6.3% on the Liberals in just over a month.

 

Go Andrea Go!

Aristotleded24

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
Here is the biggie:

905 NDP in first place 35% Cons second 33% Liberals 3rd 28%

Doesn't surprise me at all. In the United States, poverty is growing fastest in middle-class suburbs, and no doubt with the demographic make-up of the 905 that the same shift is happening there.

autoworker

janfromthebruce wrote:

looking at the increase in Green support, I'm thinking if an election was called we'd get that extra percentage. We'd be quite competitive with the Hudak cons. I don't know if home heating would be the draw.

The anti-nuclear folks won't vote NDP.

janfromthebruce

and autoworker, how many anti-nuclear folks are out there? Just curious because alas the Green team has continually lost support both federally and provincially for a long while.

Sean in Ottawa

I am not convinced that the Greens have many progressive voters left that could move to the NDP-- they are either very committed Greens or not open to progressive politics-- often being fiscally Conservative. Many Greens, I think would stay home before they vote for another party. And that is what they usually do. I am not convinced that Green vote moves to the NDP often-- I have always argued against simplistic vote migration models. There are usually many small rivers of support change going on at a time and we average them all and make presumptions that x went to y when it may have been some x stayed home some z went to y some w went to x etc. You often see Con vote go down and NDP go up for example but that does not mean any Cons voted NDP-- just that this is the net result of a pile of other moves.

janfromthebruce

Sean, I still think that some voters still park their vote with the Greens between elections which explains why they always poll higher between elections than in comparison to the real results of any given election.

Sean in Ottawa

I have never believed this parking theory. Nor even the idea that huge amounts tell pollsters they vote Green and don't.

I believe that is a misunderstanding of how polls work -- a popular one but wrong nonetheless.

First-- it takes more commitment to be polled than to vote not less. Pollsters get upwards of 95% refusals while over 50% who can vote usually do.

Every party has their core supporters who are died in the wool and want every opportunity to help their party-- they do those polls and certainly get out and vote.

I think the Greens actually have a very low number of voters and just as small a number between elections but a higher percentage of those are willing to be polled. This makes sense when you consider that they are pretty much just a small core of fairly committed people.

In other words I don't think the issue is that they don't vote or park or change their minds but that they are over-counted in polls because many supporters of other parties are less willing to take the time to register their support and are under counted so this implies a higher level of support for the Greens than was ever there.

Put another way: the polls presume that those who do not answer the polls and those who do vote roughly the same way and I think increasingly they don't. We cover the problem by pretending there is some kind of shift that happens. I think the real problem is the methodology and that the shifts are just excuses to explain methodological problems.

If I am right there are not that many loose Green supporters for others to pick up -- and in fact not that many of them ever.

autoworker

Howard wrote:

You try to win when you can. Whether the ONDP is ready or not, to win or to govern, is another question. Anyways, McGuinty owes the ONDP some love and Dwight Duncan better look to his seat. What do his constituents want? Austerity without balanced budgets? The finance minister running defence for the richest and greediest of Ontario?

I think that many of the Ontario's Finance Minister's constituents are concerned about their wages, pensions and benefits, and whether Fiat will invest in a new platform for Chrysler's Windsor Assembly Plant, without public subsidies, major labour concessions, or both. Moreover, austerity has been a way of life, in this neck of the woods, for some time. If the ONDP has a credible candidate who can challenge Dwight Duncan, let her come forward and present a viable plan that addresses these anxieties.

adma

Maybe the most interesting possibility (perhaps reflected in the 905 numbers) is that now, pollingwise, the ONDP is in the position to wag the federal party's tail--the reverse of when Horwath and her team seemed to lurk in Laytonmania's shadow...

Doug

Buried in this article about a poll on public support for Gay-Straight alliances is the news that the Ontario NDP are statistically tied with the PCs for first place.

 

Forum Research survey, May 14 2012:

PC - 34%

NDP - 32%

Liberal - 27%

Green - 5%

janfromthebruce

And that Andrea is the most popular leader by far -

Forum’s poll found that Horwath remains the most popular provincial political leader. She enjoys a 50 per cent approval rating compared with McGuinty’s 27 per cent and Tory Leader Tim Hudak’s 20 per cent.

Majority of Ontarians favour gay-straight alliances and oppose Catholic school funding, poll finds

Aristotleded24

Doug wrote:
Buried in this article about a poll on public support for Gay-Straight alliances is the news that the Ontario NDP are statistically tied with the PCs for first place.

Hopefully that will prevent the Liberals from winning the seat left vacant by Wittmer.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Stockholm wrote:

I realize this is not the right attitude to take but I am not sure that the ONDP is ready to be in power. Only 8 MPPs have any experience and I would not want have to take power with a totally inexperienced caucus with a 16 billion dollar deficit.

On one side of it, that's a valid point.  However, how much real preparation for governing do you get while sitting on the opposition benches?

And I think we can pretty much assume that, no matter when the next ONDP government comes to power, the Liberal or PC government it replaces will leave some sort of fiscal booby trap for the ONDP to step into.  That may, in fact, have been Peterson's calculation in calling the election two years early in 1991...that the NDP would get in just when the hardest of the hard times were going to hit, be forced to destroy their popularity by making deeply unpopular choices that alienated their core voters, then the Liberals could come roaring backat the next electon by promising to restore "the good old days".  If Peterson hadn't unexpectedly lost his own riding, this strategy might well have succeeded, producing another OLP majority in 1995 or 1996.

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:
Stockholm wrote:
I realize this is not the right attitude to take but I am not sure that the ONDP is ready to be in power. Only 8 MPPs have any experience and I would not want have to take power with a totally inexperienced caucus with a 16 billion dollar deficit.
On one side of it, that's a valid point.  However, how much real preparation for governing do you get while sitting on the opposition benches?

For one, the more members you have, the easier it is for the critics to focus on their particular files and get to know them particularly well, as opposed to having to juggle them. You also have more people available to select for things like Secerataries to the Minister, etc. Finally, you have more mentorship and support for the new elected members whose presence takes you over the top to form government. You have a stronger team to take charge while allowing the new folks to cut their teeth and move up when they are ready.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Granted to all of that.  But I still wonder, does sitting as a caucus critic actually fully prepare someone to go into government and take up a seat in cabinet?  In some ways it does...but aren't there always going to be a lot of things you can only learn by actually doing the job?

janfromthebruce

The short answer to that Ken is YES. One doesn't know what you don't know until you do it. What is helpful is to have super admin staff of those who have operated "in govt", which is why "new govts" often hire or have transition teams composed of those outside of province who have been involved in govt and running the day to day operations.

Sean in Ottawa

There is also a need to avoid the hierarchic emphasis on governance. Ministers get advice from deputy ministers who in turn get advice form those working for them. A political party that has the support of the people who work for it also have a tremendous source for advice.

This is true of any organization-- advice and information flowing both ways up and down an organization is critical. This is one reason why clever organizations can use the organization of the workplace to improve their business. While a union has specific and understood interests, they are also an incredible resource for leadership as they reach down to the bottom of an organization. Once you change the culture a little to one more respectful and cooperative you can really benefit from all these resources. One reason why any organization including governments, must be careful about declaring war on their workers.

Stockholm

Nanos has a new poll on vote intention in Ontario:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-W12-T539.pdf

PC: 33.6

Libs: 31.0

NDP: 28.5

Green: 5.6

If you look at their chart the NDP lione has been steadily climbing for the past six months.

Sean in Ottawa

Also shows Cons and Liberals close which is also useful putting the leading position in reach.

Sean in Ottawa

Put another way, the NDP in Ontario could get another kick at governing within the next few years.

They better have some good communications people to make sure they don't lose the propaganda war that will start the day of the election. The NDP will never get a honeymoon in Ontario so need to be better prepared for the attacks from day one.

Also the NDP needs to have productive conversations with its friends in Ontario both around expectations that must be realistic and understanding what must be done to avoid betraying supporters. As you move closer to being a potential government you need these conversations to happen because the reality on the ground can move faster than those understandings take to create. A conversation about what an NDP government would look like and what it would do needs to happen now-- that does not mean platforms commitments but it sure should include what people are expecting and what of that is actually deliverable. Then when the party wins next it will be clear what must be done to hold the movement together and avoid the fracturing that happened last time. there was stuff to learn on all sides. The party, the leader and the allies. the leader is no longer our problem but the other two factors remain. People have worked all their lives to make a difference-- they need to be part of whatever happens next and to know that they are being heard and core principles being followed. And they need to be respected, which means when things are being floated by the party they need to be doable and when others float them the party needs to be clear about what it can support. Otherwise the habit of telling people what they want to hear and doing something different/taking supporters for granted will make a fall from grace a generational thing.

For the NDP in Ontario it needs to be able to win, govern without screams of betrayal and when ti eventually loses again it go to official opposition with the ability to come back the next time rather than fall all the way down to barely a party.

mark_alfred

Interesting that concern about jobs and the economy has gone down, while concern about healthcare and about high taxes (?) has gone up.  The NDP is doing a little better, but the results are still relatively the same as they have been for quite a while.  Hard to really interpret this poll.

Stockholm

The general trend in all the Ontario polls has been for the PCs to be flat since the October election while the Liberals are shedding support to the NDP like crazy.

adma

Though in *this* poll, the PCs seem slightly down...

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I wonder when you'll start hearing "Dump Hudak" talk from the PC's.  A lot of them should, logically, be furious that, in the current situation, their party isn't fifteen points ahead right now.

mark_alfred

adma wrote:

Though in *this* poll, the PCs seem slightly down...

This poll has them at 30% in March, then 32.1% in April, and 33.6% in May, so they don't seem to be slightly down.  Both the NDP and the PCs are up a bit, whereas the Liberals are down.  It appears that some support from the Liberals has drifted to both the NDP and the PCs.  The NDP is still in third, but with the margin of error, it could be seen as a three way tie.

Brachina

Nanos tends to over estimate the Liberals in Ontario and under estimate the NDP, so the,other polls with the NDP second are probably,closer to the truth.

Ippurigakko

NDP and Liberals tied

Toronto Provincial election - May 29, 2012
NDP 33% (+8)
LIB 33% (-4)
PC 29% (-4)
GRN 4% (same)

18-34
NDP 55% (+33)
LIB 25% (-12)
PC 11% (-21)
GRN 6% (same)

35-44
LIB 37% (+1)
NDP 35% (+1)
PC 25% (-3)
GRN 2% (same)

45-54
PC 36% (+11)
LIB 31% (-4)
NDP 28% (-2)
GRN 4% (same)

55-64
LIB 36% (-5)
NDP 30% (+11)
PC 30% (-7)
GRN 4% (same)

65+
PC 38% (+1)
LIB 34% (-3)
NDP 24% (+4)
GRN 4% (-1)

Male
PC 34% (-3)
LIB 30% (-7)
NDP 29% (+9)
GRN 5% (same)

Female
NDP 38% (+9)
LIB 35% (-3)
PC 24% (-5)
GRN 3% (same)

Drive
PC 36% (-2)
LIB 33% (-4)
NDP 25% (+5)
GRN 3% (-1)

Public Transit
NDP 43% (+15)
LIB 34% (-7)
PC 19% (-8)
GRN 3% (same)

Bike/Walk
NDP 47% (+8)
LIB 33% (-4)
PC 11% (-26)
GRN 9% (+3)

Approve of Rob Ford
PC 58% (same)
LIB 23% (-2)
NDP 15% (+3)
GRN 2% (same)

Disapprove of Rob Ford
NDP 47% (+11)
LIB 40% (-8)
PC 7% (-4)
GRN 5% (same)

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

That, of course, will probably buy McGuinty some PC support for the next few months.  It's gonna be damn hard for Hudak to justify bringing down the Liberals when the PC's are in third place.

adma

Ippurigakko wrote:

18-34
NDP 55% (+33)
LIB 25% (-12)
PC 11% (-21)
GRN 6% (same)

Dunno what the sample size is; but still, *that* is astonishing...

janfromthebruce

where's the link to this poll - I don't see it. ty

takeitslowly

i hate the goddamn liberals too. There are no jobs in Toronto!

Ippurigakko
NorthReport

As I now understand this most recent poll was done by Forum Research and it covers the Toronto area - correct?

Thanks for the link IPP. It would be helpful when publishing polling results to state who the pollster is, and what area it covers. 

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