Ontario polling thread (April 18, 2012)

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Stockholm

Ippurigakko wrote:

NDP and Liberals tied

Toronto Provincial election - May 29, 2012
NDP 33% (+8)
LIB 33% (-4)
PC 29% (-4)
GRN 4% (same)

This was a poll of the City of Toronto (416) - its worth compafring those numbers to what the actual results were in Toronto last October:

Liberals 47%

NDP 27%

PC 22%

So that means the Liberals are down 14 points in Toronto while the NDP is up 6% and the PCs are up 7% compared to the October election.

Ippurigakko

Yup

 

Here Environics May 23-25

PC 37% (same)
NDP 28% (-2)
LIB 25% (-2)
GRN 10% (+4)

 

http://www.environics.ca/uploads/File/Environics-Research---Ontario-Vote...

Ippurigakko

Forum Research - june 4

PC 36% (+2)
NDP 30% (-2)
LIB 28% (+1)
GRN 4% (-1)

http://forumresearch.ca/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/02523_Onta...

mark_alfred

Recent article in the Globe shows the NDP gaining (now polling 2nd), the Liberals losing ground (polling 3rd), and the PCs staying the same as the last election (now polling first).  The prediction of seats won if an election were held today was 52 for the PCs (two short of a majority), 29 for the NDP, and 26 for the Liberals.  Also Horwath has very high approval ratings.  

Debater

mark_alfred wrote:

Recent article in the Globe shows the NDP gaining (now polling 2nd), the Liberals losing ground (polling 3rd), and the PCs staying the same as the last election (now polling first).  The prediction of seats won if an election were held today was 52 for the PCs (two short of a majority), 29 for the NDP, and 26 for the Liberals.  Also Horwath has very high approval ratings.  

Those numbers are unlikely to work out like that.  The Ontario Liberals have too many strongholds to end up with that few seats.

Having said that, McGuinty is now the longest-serving Liberal Ontario Premier in modern history.  The ride certainly isn't going to last forever.  At some point voters are going to want a change.

Stockholm

Today's stronghold can be tomorrow flotsam going down the toilet bowl. The federal Liberals supposedly had all these "strongholds" but when their popular vote in Ontario last May fell to 25% - that translated into just 11 seats. If the Ontario Liberals were to drop from 38% to a province-wide popular vote in the 25-28% range - they would lose a TON of seats.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

McGuinty should just merge his party with the PC's and be done with it, Debater.  If you're pro-austerity, it really doesn't matter whether you're "moderately progressive" on anything else.  Both the OLP and the PC's put Bay Street before human needs.

Sean in Ottawa

Debater: The Liberals have not gone below 30% in an Ontario election in decades. Specifically 40 years. The most recent reference available for the Liberals at below 30% comes from 1971 when they got 27.8% of the vote. The legislature had 117 seats, ten more than now. The Liberals got 20 seats.

I won't suggest that a 40 year old result in a different demographic and time is a fair comparison. What I will say is that the Liberals below 30%, if it happened in a general election, is pretty much uncharted territory. In fact things could be much worse.

For a third place party in a first past the post system to get a proportion of seats in the legislature even close to its popular vote as is predicted here would be a remarkable achievement. the idea that the Liberals could get 26/107 seats from third place with only 28% of the vote, I would suggest is on the optimistic side. if the Liberals were to get only 28% and be in third place I think a fairer seat total expectation would be closer to 22-24 seats.

That said, I am not convinced that the Liberals will only get 28% of the vote in the next election. First polls often lowball an unpopular governemtn as those wanting change are more motivated to do a poll. Secondly, I suspect that the Liberals are as likely to grow a few points in the campaign as stay the same as McGuinty is a good campaigner and the Cons have not run a good campaign in a long time and seem unable to stop themselves from scaring people. still I don't think the Liberals would be very happy with what they would get at 30-31%. It is worth noting that 31% gave the Conservatives 26 seats in the last election.

Stockholm

The Liberal vote in Ontario is very seat-efficient at high levels, but could be very seat INefficient at low levels. The Tories are strong in rural and exurban seats and their vote is very very low in the inner cities and parts of the north. The NDP is strong in the north and the industrial cities and almost non-existent in rural areas. If the Liberals fell into the 20s and third place behind the PCs AND the NDP the Liberals would suddenly find the electoral map very, very cruel as they would be a distant second to Tories in the rural and exurban seats and distant second to the NDP in all the NDP strongholds and Liberal MPPs would drop like flies - with most of their suburban GTA seats going Tory and the NDP sweeping them out of places like Windsor, Niagara Falls, Sudbury, Thunder Bay and much of the City of Toronto.

When you are a party that has support in all regions it means that when you do well you run the tables and get huge number of seats, but when you do badly you come in second everywhere and end up with almost no seats. Remember the federal PCs in 1993? 17% across canada and TWO SEATS

Sean in Ottawa

I agree with that assessment although not the comparison. The federal Conservatives faced a split and defection to the Reform party.

A better warning for the Ontario Liberals comes from their neighbour Manitoba. I will write a brief electoral history of the Liberals for the last 50 years so you can see what I mean.

From 1932 to 1953 the Liberals were the governing party averaging more than double the seats of the closest opposition party. In 1958 they lost a close election to the Conservatives who won with a minority only 7 seats ahead of them. They were only 6% behind. For the next 50 years the Liberals have been unable to govern. In 1959 the Liberals lost 4% of the vote and lost almost half their seats. In 1962 the Liberals recovered their vote to 36% only 8 points behind the Conservatives only to find they gained just 2 seats and sat barely more than a third of the seats the Conservatives held. In 1966 they closed to within six points of the governing Conservatives only to win just one more seat to sit at 14 to the Conservatives 31. But their nightmare was just starting. In 1969 the NDP came to power in Manitoba for the first time. The Liberals managed 24% of the vote and just 5 seats out of 57 - not even 10% of the seats. They came in second in 16 seats, sometimes to Conservatives and sometimes to New Democrats. Sharon Carstairs brought them back after years of near death to opposition in 1988 winning 35% of the vote but still not enough for government, bested by the Conservatives by only 3 percent and 5 seats. In 1990 the Liberals established themselves firmly as second place finishers winning in a tight three-way election. The Liberals at 28% got 7 seats while the NDP less than one point ahead managed 20. In 1995 the Liberals slid back to 24% getting only 3 -- less than 5% -- of the seats. For the next three elections in 1999, 2003 and 2007 the Liberals barely hung in with about 13% of the vote and 1-2 seats. In 2011 they were reduced to under 8% of the voters winning only their leader's seat.

This is the nightmare scenario for the Liberals-- establish a pattern of running second to the NDP in one part of the province and second to the Cons in another until you are so weak that you can't even manage the popular support anymore.

 

adma

Debater wrote:
Those numbers are unlikely to work out like that.  The Ontario Liberals have too many strongholds to end up with that few seats.

That is, if "incumbents" automatically transcribe into "strongholds".  But, let's see, using riding boundaries that'll likely be obsolete by the next election (unless it's sooner rather than later)...

Windsor: eternally NDP-vulnerable, Dwight Duncan notwithstanding.

London: Bentley + Matthews could survive a 3rd-place rout (esp. w/Bentley as a potential leader)...

Kitchener Centre: squeaker over PC.

Brant: squeaker over PC.

Guelph: Sandals has never had strong mandates, though the federal pattern may mean she can survive in spite of herself.

Ancaster et al: McMeekin's resilient; but if it weren't for his winning that 2000 byelection, his seat might still be PC.

St Kitts: the supposedly eternal Jim Bradley was nearly PC-upset last year.

905 Belt: because it tends to go in waves, might as well deem it vulnerable-in-toto, most likely to PC (unless Singh's BGM has leftward coattails).  Markham and Vaughan are the likeliest survivors; and in the latter case, there's no guarantee Sorbara will run again.

Peterborough: lucky red in a sea of blue, and with a belwether rep, i.e. Jeff Leal in third isn't out of the question.

Kingston: another of the likelier rump survivors, though the NDP might have reason to try.

Glengarry-P&R--onetime "safest Liberal seat" now federally Tory, and nearly went provincially Tory in '11, too.

Ottawa: the Premier's an obvious regional boost--though even he faced a tighter-than-expected race in '99 and has had problems cresting very far above 50%.  And other seats have corresponding federal PC/NDP save Ottawa-Vanier, which could itself fall in an NDP surge.  (And Chiarelli barely won in Ottawa West-Nepean.)

Northern Ontario: just because they dodged the predicted 2011 wipeout doesn't mean the Liberals won't dodge it again (though for whatever reason, Orazietti in the Soo seems likeliest to hang on)

416: maybe "safest"-by-default; but a lot of those Grit MPPs have corresponding federal PC/NDP MPPs; plus, a few retirements (Sergio?  Cansfield?) might be afoot.  And the so-called erstwhile "strongest" Grit seat of all, Scarborough Rouge-River, saw a stiff ONDP challenge on top of the federal upset earlier last year.

So yes; even ye Ontario Liberal incumbents aren't rock-solid...

NorthReport

Nanos

PCs - 34.7%

Libs - 34%

NDP - 22.1%

janfromthebruce

I would love to see the poll itself. Do you have a link?

janfromthebruce
adma

Not sure what that means for Kitchener-Waterloo, even if Fife skews the riding-specific circumstances.  (Then again, the federal NDP wasn't exactly soaring in the polls when Brian Masse won Herb Gray's seat.)

At any rate, if there's a silver lining, it's if the low 20s are now the ONDP's low benchmark, rather than the high benchmark it would've been pre-Orange Crush...

Stockholm

Forum put out an Ontario poll the day before yesterday that was in field at the same time as nanos and it said PCs 38%, NDP 29%, OLP 27%

janfromthebruce

And Stock, it had negative leadership numbers for both Hudak and McGuinty but Horwath's had risen sharply. Interesting times.

David Young

I'm wondering at what point the new boundaries that are coming federally will take effect provincially.

Will there be more seats if the provincial election occurs before the next federal one?

 

Wilf Day

David Young wrote:

I'm wondering at what point the new boundaries that are coming federally will take effect provincially.

Will there be more seats if the provincial election occurs before the next federal one?

The McGuinty government has not yet said anything as to their intentions. The present Representation Act, 2005, makes the provincial ridings the same as the federal boundaries that existed on Sept. 1, 2004, in southern Ontario (except Muskoka), and on Oct. 2, 2003 for the northern ridings (including Parry Sound--Muskoka). So the new federal ridings will not be in effect in Ontario until a new Representation Act is passed. What they will do about the North, they have not said. They could still decide to set up an Ontario Boundaries Commission and decouple the provincial ridings from the federal, keep 11 ridings in the North (including Parry Sound--Muskoka), and maybe go back to 130 provincial ridings. If they get a majority on Sept. 6, I would not be surprised if that's what they do. If not, all parties are going to have to discuss it, once they see the proposed federal boundaries. If the federal Commission ignores municipal boundaries, school board boundaries, and so on, there will be a stronger case for decoupling provincial ridings.

Brachina

Nanos always skews on favour of the Liberals, its why I almost always ignore his polls now, the bias is predictable to the point that he should be the laughing stock of his profession.

infracaninophile infracaninophile's picture

Are there any polls on what is the status of the race in Vaughan? I know it is a Lib stronghold in days of yore, but is the Liberal candidate a shoo-in or is there a real race there?

josh
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If that poll isn't an outlier than...holy crap!!!!

janfromthebruce

Well Ken, I'm not surprised. Horwath is the only and highly positively supported provincial leader, and has been for a long time - so like Layton, "the party" is doing "catchup".

The Kitchener/Waterloo by election revealed the support. This poll result backs it up.

janfromthebruce

The pollster also suggested that the NDP would only win 29 seats as opposed to 30 for the Liberals and 48 for the Conservatives. But we all know that funny things can happen on the way to the polls - think Orange crush!

Stockholm

I have always found Forum's seat projection model to be nonsensical. Ithe federal Liberals were reduced to just 11 seats in Ontario despite winning 25% of the vote federally. If the Ontario Liberals were actually reduced to just 22% of the vote thee is no possible way that they would salvage 30 seats. It is not mathematically possible.

adma

That "only 29 seats" is probably through a uniform-swing projection fallacy, anyway.

mark_alfred

janfromthebruce wrote:

The pollster also suggested that the NDP would only win 29 seats as opposed to 30 for the Liberals and 48 for the Conservatives. But we all know that funny things can happen on the way to the polls - think Orange crush!

Interesting.  I think it's due to the NDP support being more concentrated in certain areas.  But, as you said, it could be the beginnings of another orange crush. 

janfromthebruce

Someone posted on my tweeter feed that this is the FIRST TIME in 20 years, yes folks, 20 years that the NDP is ahead in a poll in Ontario. So 2012 less 20, means that it was about 1992, the last time the orange team was ahead. 20 years to recover from Bob Rae who is a big time Liberal - geez, what a smuckhead!

bekayne

janfromthebruce wrote:

The pollster also suggested that the NDP would only win 29 seats as opposed to 30 for the Liberals and 48 for the Conservatives. But we all know that funny things can happen on the way to the polls - think Orange crush!

Actually, it wasn't the pollster that commented but the lobbyist that paid for the poll

janfromthebruce

This poll result riled big time Lib strategist who is conducting pitty party over at his blog - won't link but I'm sure you can guess who - ha ha ha.

adma

mark_alfred wrote:
Interesting.  I think it's due to the NDP support being more concentrated in certain areas.  But, as you said, it could be the beginnings of another orange crush. 

As I said re that apparent "concentration": uniform-swing fallacy.  Otherwise, by that projection model, Kitchener-Waterloo wouldn't be anywhere among those 29...

janfromthebruce

yeah, except that Forum did correctly suggest that the NDP would win KitWat with their final poll released the last 2 days before the vote. So they may need to rethink their seat allocation.

jerrym

Hudak's extremism and McGuinty' best before date being long past, as well as the victory in KW showing what not that long ago was considered to be a long-shot can happen, could lead to this swing towards Horvath and the NDP. Many voters see little hope for escaping the long recession/depression in the ultra-orthodox right-wing solutions proposed by the Libs and Cons and are looking for something that addresses the economic and social issues that they are concerned about.

I wonder whether this poll was sponsored by a Liberal hopeful plotting to overthrow McGuinty when I see findings in the poll such as those below. Afterall, asking the questions that led to these findings would certainly help an ambitious Lib.

"Just 24% of Ontarians approve of Dalton McGuinty's leadership of the Liberal Party with 62% disapproving.

43% of Ontarians and 39% of Liberal Party supporters support the Liberal Party holding a leadership convention within the next year.

A top tier of potential leadership candidates would include Kathleen Wynne (24%), George Smitherman (20%), and Dwight Duncan (18%)."

 

And gee whiz! The McGuinty Libs are running third in popularity and the top tier candidates get their names mentioned as potential leaders who are about as popular as McGuinty. 

 

 

nicky

The Forum seat projection ( C 48, L 30, N 29) is not based on a uniform province-wide swing. Such a swing would yield C 50, N 39 (includiing Kitchener -Waterloo) L 18.

The Forum seat projection model must use regional results and give a bonus for incumbency.

adma

nicky wrote:

The Forum seat projection ( C 48, L 30, N 29) is not based on a uniform province-wide swing. Such a swing would yield C 50, N 39 (includiing Kitchener -Waterloo) L 18.

The Forum seat projection model must use regional results and give a bonus for incumbency.

Even there, I'm doubtful--or at least, they're overleveraging the "bonus for incumbency".  And besides, *any* projection model has to account for the fact that in practice, ONDP campaigns have tended to superconcentrate on a core of incumbents and "winnables"--which might add up to 29 or so.  I suspect that once the mid-30s stratosphere is hit, an awful lot more seats will be deemed "winnable"--and at those numbers, the Libs are flirting with losing party status...

Brachina

josh wrote:

Forum:

NDP      36

PC         35

Liberals  22

Greens    6

http://broadviewstrategygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Broadview-Report-on-Public-Affairs-September-Final.pdf

Wow, just wow. Still if that really happened and the NDP ended up third in seats after coming in 1st in popular votes, with over 13 percent over the third placed challenger Chaos would ensue and the the party governing would have no legitamacy. Of course I'm pretty sure that result even in our system is simply impossible. When Bob Rae won a majority, he did so with around 36 percent of the vote, I can imagine it possible to win with these numbers.

I remember how the pollsters and pundits in 2011 were getting high numbers for the NDP in Quebec, but they kept saying it would result in very few seats, because of distrubtion of votes. They were wrong in a big way.

Same deal here.

adma

And re the Liberals getting 30 seats: at those numbers, I'd expect them to be reduced to some kind of 1991 BC Socred status, or something...

Brachina

They would probably get from 9 to 26 seats with numbers, I think the Liberals would need,more like around 16 percent before they were looking at close extinction.

Ippurigakko

Brachina wrote:

josh wrote:

Forum:

NDP      36

PC         35

Liberals  22

Greens    6

http://broadviewstrategygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Broadview-Report-on-Public-Affairs-September-Final.pdf

Wow, just wow. Still if that really happened and the NDP ended up third in seats after coming in 1st in popular votes, with over 13 percent over the third placed challenger Chaos would ensue and the the party governing would have no legitamacy. Of course I'm pretty sure that result even in our system is simply impossible. When Bob Rae won a majority, he did so with around 36 percent of the vote, I can imagine it possible to win with these numbers. I remember how the pollsters and pundits in 2011 were getting high numbers for the NDP in Quebec, but they kept saying it would result in very few seats, because of distrubtion of votes. They were wrong in a big way. Same deal here.

If ONDP is first place 36%, they would get 74 seats like in 1990 - NDP 37.6%, LIB 32.4%, PC 23.5%

explain compare 1987 to 1990 VS 2011 to 2012 (elections in 2015)

parties 1987 / 2011 ~ 1990 / 2012 (Forum)
NDP  25.7% / 22.7% ~> 37.6% / 36%
LIB 47.3% / 37.6% ~> 32.4% / 22%
PC 24.7% / 35.4% ~> 23.5% / 35%
GRN 0.1% / 2.9% ~> 0.7% / 6%

 

PC and Liberals are reversed.

Brachina

Yeah, it looks like a reversal, I agree.

Of course it can get even better, Hudak's a complete Goof as leader, he's the Mitt Romney of Canadian politics.

NorthReport

Never mind the silly seat projections from some pollsters.

Ontario Polling - 2012

Date / Pollster / NDP / PCs / Libs

Sep / Forum / 36% / 35% / 22%

Aug / Forum / 29% / 38% / 27%

Aug / Nanos / 22% / 35% / 34%

Jun / Forum / 30% / 36% / 28%

May / Nanos / 29% / 34% / 31%

May / Environics / 28% / 37% / 25%

Apr / Nanos / 27% / 32% / 35%

Apr / Environics / 30% / 37% / 27% 

2845

mark_alfred

I like the fact that the poll numbers show the Liberals in decline.  Interesting how the poll numbers show the Liberals going up immediately after they cooperated with the NDP and passed the surtax on those making over $500,000 a year.  When the NDP negotiated further amendments to the budget, the Liberals stated they would not work with the NDP again, and thus recently worked on appeasing the Conservatives via attacking teachers and other public sector workers.  And look, their poll numbers are now plummeting.  Serves the ideologically bereft Liberals right.

toaster

I think the ONDP should start nominating candidates in ridings across the province.  Looks like Ontarian's are ready for an election, looking at those numbers.

Sean in Ottawa

As I have said before seat projections over estimate parties on the way down and underestimate them on the way up. the reason is they fail to account for the way votes flatten out for a party that is less popular and spike up into winnable clumps when the support increases. All the mathematical models seem to make the same mistake. The bottom line is that pollsters think election prediction is a science and apply broken models when it is really an art and the models must be adjusted for a number of dynamics.

Stockholm

A new Forum poll is out and the news is even WORSE for the Liberals: PC 37%, NDP 35%, Libs 20%...at that level the Liberals could lose official party status!

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1262810--ontario-lib...

love is free love is free's picture

man, another liberal party on the ropes with re-alignment en cours.  once the cpc nukes trudeau into oblivion, and assuming dexter can pull it out in nova scotia, we'll have only to wait for the inevitable conservative party rebound in bc with the ndp landslide and the corruption to sink the plq in quebec.  that'll basically leave the liberal brand irrelevant in 90% of the country and federally.  glee.

Doug
NorthReport

 

Never mind the silly seat projections from some pollsters.

Ontario Polling - 2012

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Change / PCs / P-Change / Libs / L-Change

Sep / Forum / 35% / -1% / 37% / +2% /  20% / -2%  

Sep / Forum / 36% / +7% /  35% / +8% / 22% / -5%

Aug / Forum / 29% / 38% / 27%

Aug / Nanos / 22% / 35% / 34%

Jun / Forum / 30% / 36% / 28%

May / Nanos / 29% / 34% / 31%

May / Environics / 28% / 37% / 25%

Apr / Nanos / 27% / 32% / 35%

Apr / Environics / 30% / 37% / 27% 

2845

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Sounds like the strategy was developed by an NDP mole.  As in BC the Ontario NDP's best chance is always when there are two parties wrapping themselves in the free enterprise mantel. 

Liberals do best when they run from the centre left especially since voters often forgive them for at least one election cycle for ruling from the right when elected. 

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