Ontario polling thread (April 18, 2012)

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NorthReport
jerrym

Having grown up in Lanark county, the most consistently Conservative-voting riding since Confederation, voting Liberal just once (during the hieght of the Depression and where voting Liberal was considered radical) until the Chretien sweeps of Ontario, it is good to see the NDP up to 31% in Eastern Ontario, a traditional NDP wasteland, and only trailing the Cons by 6% in the region. Of course, I expect Lanark to still be in the Conservative bag, but the times they are a changing. 

Stockholm

"eastyern Ontario" would include Ottawa...btw in 1990 tyhe NDP did win several rockribbed Tory seats in rural areas etc....

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The northern part of Lanark county is exurban Ottawa now.  In the '70's when I lived in Perth it took a long time to drive to Ottawa and when I was in the area a couple of years ago I was astounded at how close it was to the city.  I presume the demographics of the area are changing as well since Perth looked like a retirement centre for civil servants not the almost timeless small town of 40 years ago.

jerrym

Stockholm wrote:

"eastyern Ontario" would include Ottawa...btw in 1990 tyhe NDP did win several rockribbed Tory seats in rural areas etc....

People in small-town eastern Ontario do not see themselves linked in any way to metropolitan Ottawa, and even less so than the rest of the country. 

ctrl190

New poll from Innovative Research points to a three way race.

http://www.innovativeresearch.ca/sites/default/files/pdf%2C%20doc%2C%20d...

 

Innovative Research/TVO

Oct. 17-22.

PC - 32%

NDP - 31%

LIB - 28%

GRN - 9%

 

Seat projections from http://www.threehundredeight.com/

PC - 42

NDP - 33

LIB - 32

 

David Young

Any regional break-downs to see if the NDP's gaining strength gives hope for a win in the federal DURHAM by-election?

 

mark_alfred

On the Lang & O'Leary Exchange, Kevin O'Leary stated that the rise of the Ontario NDP in the polls was akin to a cancer patient hearing the news that his or her cancer was in recurrence after a long bout of remission.  Needless to say, an offensive and wrongheaded analogy.  Regardless, I do so hope to see guys and gals like him squirm when the NDP wins the next election.

NorthReport

The latest Ontario polling shows the NDP with a big jump in support, as opposed  to a drop for the PCs, and a horrific crash for the Liberals.

And never mind the silly seat projections from some pollsters which are usually not worth the paper they are written on.

Ontario Seats

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Change / PCs / P-Change / Libs / L-Change / Total

2011 / GE / 17 / +7 / 37 / +11 / 53 / -28 / 107

2007 / GE / 10 / +3 / 26 / +2 / 71 / -1 / 107

2003 / GE / 07 / -2 / 24 / -35 / 72 / +37 / 103

1999 / GE / 09 / -8 / 59 / -23 / 35 / +5 / 103

Ontario Polling

Oct 22 / InnRes / 31% / +8% / 32% / -2% / 28% / -11%

Sep / Forum / 35% / -1% / 37% / +2% /  20% / -2%  

Sep / Forum / 36% / +7% /  35% / +8% / 22% / -5%

Aug / Forum / 29% / 38% / 27%

Aug / Nanos / 22% / 35% / 34%

Jun / Forum / 30% / 36% / 28%

May / Nanos / 29% / 34% / 31%

May / Environics / 28% / 37% / 25%

Apr / Nanos / 27% / 32% / 35%

Apr / Environics / 30% / 37% / 27% 

 

 

Ippurigakko

Forum research oct 16

different liberal leader:

Dwight Duncan
PC 40%, NDP 39%, LIB 16%, GRN 4%
Deb Matthews
PC 38%, NDP 36%, LIB 20%, GRN 5%
Kathleen Wynne
NDP 36%, PC 35%, LIB 22%, GRN 6%
George Smitherman
PC 36%, NDP 35%, LIB 23%, GRN 5%
Michael Bryant
PC 39%, NDP 37%, LIB 18%, GRN 5%
Brad Duguid
NDP 38%, PC 36%, LIB 20%, GRN 5%

mark_alfred

Latest Forum Research poll.

jerrym

308 analysis of Forum poll is partly quoted below. He points out a number of problems with the poll that he suggests would reduce the PC margin over the NDP from 5% to 3% if they were corrected. I have highlighted them in black.

"Ontario race remains between PCs and NDPA new poll was released on Friday showing that the Ontario Liberals are in dire straits, no matter who takes over the party. And that means that, for the time being, the real contest is between the Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats.

Forum was last in the field in Ontario on Sept. 25, and since then the Tories were unchanged at 37% support. The New Democrats were down three points to 32% while the Liberals were up two points to 22%.

The Greens were unchanged at 7% support.

Whereas the last poll from Forum showed a gap between the PCs and NDP that was within the margin of error, this poll gave the Tories a statistically significant lead. But that significance does not extend to any region of the province except eastern Ontario - all the others are close enough to give us an indication of only who is probably ahead, rather than definitively.

The disparity between men and women in this poll is telling. The Tories held a 43% to 29% lead over the NDP among men but the NDP was up five points (35% to 30%) among women. The New Democrats will need to close the gap among male voters in order to put themselves back in a dead heat with the Tories.

But there is something to note about this poll, similar to what I highlighted in Forum's last federal poll. The real problem is that Forum does not included unweighted and weighted samples in their reports (and they are not alone), which makes it difficult to determine what is actually going on. For instance, Forum says on one of its charts that the number of undecideds in this poll was 13%. But it also says that the total sample was 1,102 Ontarians and that, on the voting intentions question, the sample of respondents was 1,047. If the numbers of undecideds is really 13%, then the number of decided/leaning respondents who answered the voting intentions question should have been 959.

And on the question of how respondents voted in the last election, the numbers are off of the actual results - most strongly for the New Democrats, who were five points below their election result. By my rough calculation of Forum's numbers, if the sample was weighted by past voting behaviour the PC lead would be reduced to three points instead of five. But perhaps Forum is already taking this into account in their final numbers. When I asked if that was the case, I was told that this information is proprietary. That is certainly their prerogative, but it doesn't clear things up much.

Another interesting thing to note is that if you add up the sample sizes of how people said they voted in the last election, you end up with 1,008, or 96% of 1,047. In other words, 96% of respondents said they voted in the last election. That means that the sample Forum compiled either has a lot of fibbers (turnout was 49%) or a lot of forgetful people, and that it is probably not representative of the entire population. It might be representative of the voting population, though.

With the numbers in this poll, the Progressive Conservatives would likely win a majority government of around 60 seats, with strong results in rural Ontario but also a few pick-ups in Toronto as well. The New Democrats would win 37 seats and the Liberals only 10, nine of them in and around Toronto."

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2012/11/ontario-race-remains-between-pc...

NorthReport

Never mind the silly seat projections from some pollsters which are usually not worth the paper they are written on.

Ontario Seats

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Change / PCs / P-Change / Libs / L-Change / Total

2011 / GE / 17 / +7 / 37 / +11 / 53 / -28 / 107

2007 / GE / 10 / +3 / 26 / +2 / 71 / -1 / 107

2003 / GE / 07 / -2 / 24 / -35 / 72 / +37 / 103

1999 / GE / 09 / -8 / 59 / -23 / 35 / +5 / 103

Ontario Polling

Nov 5 / Forum / 32% / -3% / 37% / Flat / 22% / +2%

Oct 22 / InnRes / 31% / +8% / 32% / -2% / 28% / -11%

Sep / Forum / 35% / -1% / 37% / +2% /  20% / -2%  

Sep / Forum / 36% / +7% /  35% / +8% / 22% / -5%

Aug / Forum / 29% / 38% / 27%

Aug / Nanos / 22% / 35% / 34%

Jun / Forum / 30% / 36% / 28%

May / Nanos / 29% / 34% / 31%

May / Environics / 28% / 37% / 25%

Apr / Nanos / 27% / 32% / 35%

Apr / Environics / 30% / 37% / 27% 

 

jerrym

A November 27-28 poll by Forum shows the Libs up 7% (29%), the Cons down 2% (35%) and the NDP down 4% (27%). This likely a combination of being relieved to see the backside of McGuinty and voters reading what they want into the Liberal leadership candidates. One potential problem for the Libs is that two thirds of those polled want the legislature recalled, something the Libs plan on avoiding at all costs until their new leader is chosen. So far Gerard Kennedy, the man who foisted Dion on the federal Liberals, is leading in the polls for McGuinty 2.0.  

https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/7052...

autoworker autoworker's picture

It's interesting to see the Greens at 15% support in Northern Ontario.

adma

And unlikely, given how much of the economy there is resource-based and therefore *not* terrivly Green-conducive...

NorthReport

Ontario  - Seats

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Change / PCs / P-Change / Libs / L-Change / Total

2011 / GE / 17 / +7 / 37 / +11 / 53 / -28 / 107

2007 / GE / 10 / +3 / 26 / +2 / 71 / -1 / 107

2003 / GE / 07 / -2 / 24 / -35 / 72 / +37 / 103

1999 / GE / 09 / -8 / 59 / -23 / 35 / +5 / 103

Ontario - Popular Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP / PCs / Libs

Oct 6 '11 / Gen Ele / 23% / 35% / 38%

Oct 17 / Angus Reid / 32% / 36% / 26%

May 25 / Environics / 28% / 37% / 25%

Apr 13 / Environics / 30% / 37% / 27%

Average / Environics / 29% / 37% / 26%

Nov 28 / Forum / 27% / 35% / 29%

Oct 31 / Forum / 32% / 37% / 22%

Sep 25 / Forum / 35% / 37% / 20%

Average / Forum / 31% / 36% / 24% 

Oct 22 / Innovative / 31% / 32% / 28%

Nov 2 '11 / Innovative / 23% / 34% / 39%

Average / Innovative / 27% / 33% / 34%

Aug 16 / Nanos / 22% / 35% / 26%

May 13 / Nanos / 29% / 34% / 31% 

Apr 15 / Nanos / 27% / 32% / 35%

Average / Nanos / 26% / 34% / 33%


 


 

autoworker autoworker's picture

adma wrote:

And unlikely, given how much of the economy there is resource-based and therefore *not* terrivly Green-conducive...

One might think so, but there it is, nonetheless.

David Young

There have been other 'parking' of votes for the Greens between elections, but at election time, their results are always lower.

 

ctrl190

2 new polls:

 

Forum (Dec 14)

PC - 33 %

NDP - 31

LIB - 27

GRN - 8

 

Abacus (Dec 7-9)

PC - 35 %

NDP - 31

LIB - 28

GRN - 5

 

toaster

Oracle Polling released numbers for Northern Ontario:

http://www.oraclepoll.com/uploads/NE_Ontario_November_Vote_Intent.pdf

 

Timmins-Cochrane 25%(PC) 21%(LIB) 50%(NDP) 4%(GREEN)

Sudbury 17%(PC) 30%(LIB) 50%(NDP) 3%(GREEN)

North Bay 38%(PC) 23%(LIB) 31%(NDP) 8%(GREEN)

Sault Ste. Marie 13%(PC) 37%(LIB) 43%(NDP) 7%(GREEN)

 

Surprising that NDP is so high in the Sault, and even has a chance in North Bay, ahead of the Liberal party.

 

janfromthebruce

And we know in Ontario that the 8% Green vote will go elsewhere in order to "make it count".

adma

toaster wrote:
Surprising that NDP is so high in the Sault, and even has a chance in North Bay, ahead of the Liberal party.

 

Re the Soo: surprising only because Orazietti has had such an outsize rock-hard grip upon power thus far.  And re North Bay: I always felt that was a place of *latent* strength that was suppressed only because of "Mike Harris populism"--more interesting if this is within current provincial boundaries (i.e. Timiskaming-free) and it's vs Vic Fedeli, who ought to be as apparently bombproof as Orazietti (or Harris, for that matter)

nicky

Great numbers for the NDP in the Oracle riding polls for four Northern Ontario seats.

The party would hold Temiskaming_cochrane by 2 to one, gain Sudbury and Sault Ste Marie form the Liberals on massive swings (21% and 30% repectively)and come a close second to the Cons in Nippissing on a 19% swing.

It seems likely that the other two Liberal seats in the North, both in the Lakehead, would also fall to the NDP on this trend.

 

 

David Young

Will there be any fall out from when Hyer left the NDP c'aucus?

Does that have an effect on the NDP's chances in the two Thunder Bay ridings?

 

Brachina

Given that happened at the Federal Level and it was awhile ago, I very much doubt it.

janfromthebruce

David, Hyer still votes along NDP lines and only left because he didn't get some critic position. There is no fallout there in talking with NDP insiders in the area.

And I am not surprised the NDP was doing so well in liberal held northern seats considering the libs, in their brillance, stopped the northern train system - northerners are quite angry at the the liberals, for again, sticking it to the north.

nicky

Bruce Hyer passed the point of no return for me when he campaigned for the Greens in the Victoria by-election.

I wouldn't be surprised if he eventually joins their "caucus."

adma

Let's also remember that provincially, what's the alternative to the NDP in TBSN, since the Tories have little traction there and presuming the Liberals are still down in the polls--and esp. in light of his cancer, is Mike Gravelle even running again?

mark_alfred

I find it amazing that the Conservatives are polling so well given the nutcase Hudak who's currently leading them.

janfromthebruce

Nicky I didn't know Hyer campaigned in BC for the Greens. That was sure crappy.

adma

mark_alfred wrote:

I find it amazing that the Conservatives are polling so well given the nutcase Hudak who's currently leading them.

Well, if they are, it's in spite of Hudak, Hillier, et al.  Whether one likes it or not, at the grassroots level the PCs do comfort-food "hometown politics" quite well, the whole old-school Lions/Kiwanis thing.  Vote for them, and you're voting "tradition", Davis/Robarts/Frost/Drew et al (note that I'm tiptoeing around Harris/Eves).  Liberals did, too, once upon a time, esp. back in the Nixon (or early McGuinty, for that matter) days; and on that front the NDP is more "unproven" than anything.  And federally, the fact that the Cons handily held to Durham in the byelection had a lot to do with their having a superior "hometown politics" standard-bearer--superior to Bev Oda, that is.  If they had someone more backroomy or Bev Oda-like, Larry O'Connor might have "done a Fife"...

janfromthebruce

Adma, I think that O'Connor would have done much better except he didn't have the number of people working his campaign. Take note that Waterloo was close to many NDP supporting areas (eg. Hamilton, Toronto, London). It was much more easier to do a day here and there in canvasing in Kit/Wat than say Durham.

For me, it was easy (besides the summer) to drive to Kit/Wat than drive to Durham. I'm just thinking that it may have been a hinderance.

adma

Durham's closer to Toronto than Waterloo (and Oshawa--yes, it still counts as a "NDP supporting area"--is right next door).  But my point stands that Erin O'Toole was a tougher nut to crack than either of Fife's opponents--and that's probably a more valid, even potentially constructive way of looking at it than the usual "the NDP can't win in rural/exurban heartland OnTory'o" alibis.

janfromthebruce

I think that they if they could have identified their voters they could have won. The turnout was crap (as usual) but I am sure that if they could have got a lot more people to the polls and vote, they could have won. That takes people doing door knocking, doing phone canvassing, and targeting.

Fidel

janfromthebruce wrote:

I think that they if they could have identified their voters they could have won. The turnout was crap (as usual) but I am sure that if they could have got a lot more people to the polls and vote, they could have won. That takes people doing door knocking, doing phone canvassing, and targeting.

We need foot soldiers!

NorthReport

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath makes good impression on Ontarians: Poll

 

Ontario residents have yet to get behind any of the provincial party leaders in a big way, according to an Abacus Data poll released Tuesday.

When it comes to the question of who would make the best premier, the online poll of 1,020 people found that NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne each got the nod from 23% of respondents. PC Leader Tim Hudak trailed at 20% and 35% of those surveyed were undecided.

However, people plainly seem to like Horwath the best with 34% of respondents indicating she made a "positive impression," compared to 30% for Wynne and 23% for Hudak.

More proof of Hudak's lack of popularity is a finding that 44% of those polled had a "negative impression" of the Tory leader, compared to 21% each for Horwath and Wynne.

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/politics/archives/2013/02/20130213-...

5776

jerrym

An Abacus poll from February 5-6, shows a three way tie (within the 3.1% margin of error) among Ontario voters with the he Progressive Conservative Party at 33% of decided voters, followed by the NDP at 31%, and the Liberals at 30%.

"The Progressive Conservatives lead in the Greater Toronto Area (905 area code), in Eastern Ontario, and in Southwestern Ontario while the NDP leads in Northern Ontario.

'Most troubling for the Ontario Liberals remains their weakness outside of the Toronto area,' said Coletto, Abacus CEO.  'While the Liberal vote may be more efficient, it will be difficult for them to retain even a minority government without improving in the 905 region around Toronto.'

'But this poll is not great news for Tim Hudak and the Progressive Conservatives either,' said Coletto.  'Despite what has been a very bruising year for the McGuinty government, the PCs have not managed to increase their support beyond their 2011 election showing.' "

http://abacusdata.ca/2013/02/11/ontario-politics-pcs-ndp-and-liberals-tied/

 

adma

Y'know, I've been wondering whether Hudak vs Wynne + Horwath will, in the end, suffer from the inverse of the "female leader problem", i.e. just as female leaders within a male slate have been claimed as coming across as "shrill" or whatever, Hudak might come across as too "bullying" or "weaselly" or something or another...

NorthReport

The Liberal edge is very fragile, however, as a majority of those tight races are Liberal-held seats. Their vote has retreated significantly in every region of the province, with the effect being most consequential in southwestern and northern Ontario, where the New Democrats make most of their gains.

The Liberals are still the first choice of Torontonians, however. It is the one region in which the Liberals lead, with 40 per cent to 30 per cent for the New Democrats and 22 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives. But that is a seven-point drop for the Liberals since the 2011 election, much of which has gone to the NDP.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-liberals-up-in-poll...

Doug

adma wrote:

Y'know, I've been wondering whether Hudak vs Wynne + Horwath will, in the end, suffer from the inverse of the "female leader problem", i.e. just as female leaders within a male slate have been claimed as coming across as "shrill" or whatever, Hudak might come across as too "bullying" or "weaselly" or something or another...

 

Getting confrontational with either or both of the other leaders could certainly do that. It certainly has to be a focus for the PCs when they do debate preparation.

felixr

Wynne has clearly helped the Liberals numbers, but I wonder how long it will last.

jerrym

felixr wrote:

Wynne has clearly helped the Liberals numbers, but I wonder how long it will last.

Honeymoons are usually very short.

Debater

Poll suggest Wynne’s Liberals would win another minority government

 

Tue Mar 05 2013

 

A Forum Research survey estimates Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals would again win 53 seats in the 107-member house with the Tories taking 36.

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/03/05/poll_suggest_wynnes_libera...

janfromthebruce

In her first three weeks in office, Wynne has brought the Liberals back into a tie with Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives and a statistical dead heat with Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats.

The Liberals and the Tories are each at 32 per cent while the NDP is at 29 per cent and the Greens are at 5 per cent, according to the Forum Research survey.

SNIP

In terms of personal approval, Horwath was at 44 per cent with 25 per cent disapproval and 31 per cent with no opinion; Wynne was at 34 per cent approval, 32 per cent disapproval, and 34 per cent unsure; and Hudak was at 24 per cent approval, 51 per cent disapproval, and 25 per cent uncertain.

Bozinoff noted the New Democrats have tapped into one possible election-winning issue: reducing auto insurance premiums by 15 per cent.

Last Friday, Forum polled 1,033 people and found 58 per cent supported Horwath’s plan to trigger a vote if Wynne does not move to cut rates. Less than a third — 33 per cent — disapprove of the NDP threat and 11 per cent didn’t know.

And they support the teachers over the govt and want the contracts opened up and renegotiated. How's that for reality bite! Go Andrea!

 

janfromthebruce

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com 2

 

Methodology The Forum Poll™ was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,053 randomly selected Ontarians 18 years of age and older. The poll was conducted on February 20th, 2013.

adma

Debater wrote:
A Forum Research survey estimates Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals would again win 53 seats in the 107-member house with the Tories taking 36.

 

The notion that the seat numbers would remain virtually the same w/those numbers definitely demonstrates the pitfalls of raw projection methofology--given such figures, I reckon we'd be seeing more of a Charest/Marois-type minority than a McGuinty-type minority.  (And as for the NDP, the reason why their vote *seems* overly concentrated is because, as a "marginal" third party, they've hitherto been concentrating their resources within a compact spectrum of incumbent seats and pickup possibilities rather than a "true" 107-seat strategy.  But once their share edges t/w 30% territory, everything changes--then again, such "projectionists" would have still insisted the NDP only had a chance in Outremont/Gatineau even when they were nudging ever closer to Bloc figures...)

Debater

I certainly don't disagree that seat projections based on these popular vote numbers could be unreliable.

And it may be time for a change in provincial government in Ontario soon anyway.  Wynne may be able to win a minority, or perhaps there will be a change in government all together.  The Liberals have been in power in Ontario for a decade, just as they were in Quebec, and just as they have been in British Columbia.  And the public likes a change after a while.

The upside for the Federal Liberals is that seeing the end of these unpopular provincial governments in all 3 provinces could help improve the brand in the next federal election without the provincial baggage to deal with.

David Young

Debater wrote:

 

The upside for the Federal Liberals is that seeing the end of these unpopular provincial governments in all 3 provinces could help improve the brand in the next federal election without the provincial baggage to deal with.

How about this for a campaign slogan, Debater?

'REMEMBER THE BOB RAE NDP GOVERNMENT IN ONTARIO?

NOW REMEMBER THE B.C. LIBERAL GOVERNMENT UNDER CHRISTY CLARK!!!

 

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
The upside for the Federal Liberals is that seeing the end of these unpopular provincial governments in all 3 provinces could help improve the brand in the next federal election without the provincial baggage to deal with.

True, but that would also have an impact on the morale and organizational capacity of the provincial Liberal parties, which would make it even harder federally.

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