Ontario polling thread (April 18, 2012)

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Stockholm

There are a ton of federal Liberal operatives in Ontario and to a lesser extent in BC who are 100% dependent on having Liberal provincial governments in Toronto and Victoria to give them jobs, communications contracts, patronage, power and influence etc... once the BC Liberals are out - a ton of federal Liberals who are part of the Christy Clark fan club have to line for EI. If the Ontario Liberals lose power then the trouble really begins - right now the Ontario government is the ONLY place in Canada where Liberals can get jobs and contracts - once its gone the tap will have really been turned off and all the Warren Kinsella types will be left starving.

janfromthebruce

Stock, they are all jumping on the Trudeau Jr. Liberal revival "gravy train". Remember Justin, just this week, said he supports the "pork" of the Senate and it just needs better "senators" (code for Liberal pork senators).

The Ontaio Liberals just shed many staffers because of the losses of MPPs and going from majority to a "majority minority" govt.

I've seen lib blog chat of some hooking up their star with retired Lib MPPs who are now dreaming of running federally.

Debater

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Debater wrote:
The upside for the Federal Liberals is that seeing the end of these unpopular provincial governments in all 3 provinces could help improve the brand in the next federal election without the provincial baggage to deal with.

True, but that would also have an impact on the morale and organizational capacity of the provincial Liberal parties, which would make it even harder federally.

Perhaps, but it could be outweighed by all of the potential advantages the Federal Liberals will have in Ontario in 2015:

1.  The recent Forum poll shows that Justin Trudeau can make major gains in Ontario and beat the NDP

2.  The Trudeau name still has resonance in the cultural communities and will help the Liberals take back seats in the GTA (one of the reasons Jason Kenney has probably been attacking Trudeau lately)

3. The historical aspect - as you probably know, Ontario voters have a history of balancing out the government they elect provincially with the one they elect federally.

The PC's under Harris/Eves were in office during most of the time the Federal Liberals were in power under Chretien/Martin.  And the Ontario Liberals under McGuinty/Wynne have been in power most of the time Harper has been in office.

And of course back when Pierre Trudeau was Prime Minister, the Ontario PC's under Bill Davis were in power for most of that time.

Socialist Feminist

I think Wynne is better than Justin. (Not perfect but better than Justin.) So I don't want what Debater is wanting.

Debater

Forum poll: Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals maintain stranglehold on Toronto ridings

Thu Mar 21 2013

Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals retain an electoral stranglehold on Toronto, a new poll has found.

Under Wynne, the minority Liberals are at 42 per cent in the city compared with 30 per cent for Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats, 25 per cent for Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives, and 3 per cent for Mike Schreiner’s Greens.

With 23 of Ontario’s 107 ridings in the provincial capital — and the Liberals holding 18 of the seats and the NDP five — that’s good news for the rookie premier, said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

“Wynne’s honeymoon is continuing. She’s really connecting with people,” Bozinoff said Wednesday, noting the New Democrats are not doing as well as they should in Toronto.

Using interactive voice response phone calls, Forum polled 1,045 Toronto residents on Tuesday with results considered accurate to within five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Bozinoff said the poll should alarm the Tories, who have not won a Toronto provincial seat since 1999 despite Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s success here in the 2011 federal election and Mayor Rob Ford’s 2010 civic victory.

“They’re still not in it in Toronto. They need a 416 strategy.”

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/03/21/forum_poll_kathleen_wy...

 

jjuares

Debater wrote:

Forum poll: Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals maintain stranglehold on Toronto ridings

Thu Mar 21 2013

Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals retain an electoral stranglehold on Toronto, a new poll has found.

Under Wynne, the minority Liberals are at 42 per cent in the city compared with 30 per cent for Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats, 25 per cent for Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives, and 3 per cent for Mike Schreiner’s Greens.

With 23 of Ontario’s 107 ridings in the provincial capital — and the Liberals holding 18 of the seats and the NDP five — that’s good news for the rookie premier, said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

“Wynne’s honeymoon is continuing. She’s really connecting with people,” Bozinoff said Wednesday, noting the New Democrats are not doing as well as they should in Toronto.

Using interactive voice response phone calls, Forum polled 1,045 Toronto residents on Tuesday with results considered accurate to within five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Bozinoff said the poll should alarm the Tories, who have not won a Toronto provincial seat since 1999 despite Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s success here in the 2011 federal election and Mayor Rob Ford’s 2010 civic victory.

“They’re still not in it in Toronto. They need a 416 strategy.”

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/03/21/forum_poll_kathleen_wy...

 

I admire your diligence in scouring the internet to find any snippet of good news for the Liberals and then paste and copy so you can advertise these glimmers of hope. Keep the fires burning. The Liberals need you now more than ever.

Debater

Didn't have to scour for anything - it was a major headline in The Toronto Star which was posted on Twitter today and since it's a current Ontario poll I posted it in the appropriate thread.

Btw, it's not hard to find good news about the Ontario Liberals since their position has improved substantially since Wynne's replacement of McGuinty.  And the Federal Liberals have overtaken the NDP, so what's to be discouraged about?

jjuares

Debater wrote:

,.... so what's to be discouraged about?

For the Liberals? Oh, I don't know, how about actual election results!

adma

Well, look at it this way.  The NDP's a relatively strong second in Toronto, the PCs are third, and I think the Grits are still down from '11.  So it isn't *that* much of a "stranglehold", esp. if one considers seats where the NDP aren't in contention at all...

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

I call BS on that poll.  Who releases a poll of only one region of the province?

Debater

Lou Arab wrote:

I call BS on that poll.  Who releases a poll of only one region of the province?

Uh, pollsters do it all the time.

Debater

jjuares wrote:

Debater wrote:

,.... so what's to be discouraged about?

For the Liberals? Oh, I don't know, how about actual election results!

Do you mean the last 3 back to back victories in Ontario?

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Debater wrote:

Lou Arab wrote:

I call BS on that poll.  Who releases a poll of only one region of the province?

Uh, pollsters do it all the time.

Uh, no they don't.

Stockholm

Pollsters do release polls of a particular region if they are doing a poll of that area for some specific region. I could easily imagine that someone might do a poll in Edmonton on a local issue and also ask Edmontonians how they would vote in a provincial election. Similarly, its obvious that Forum was doing a poll in Toronto on some isues around funding for transit and they asked people how they would vote in a provincial electio - why not?

 

BTW, the poll is actually good new for the NDP. In the October 2011 Ontario election in the City of Toronto, the popular vote was Libs 47%, NDP 27% and PCs 22%....the Forum poll has the Libs down 5% and the NDP and PCs up 3% each. With a swing like that the ONDP would easily hold its five existing seats, easily pick up York South-Weston and Scarborough Rouge River and be very much in contention in Scarborough Southwest and York West. What's not to like?!

jerrym

Debater wrote:

Forum poll: Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals maintain stranglehold on Toronto ridings

Thu Mar 21 2013

Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals retain an electoral stranglehold on Toronto, a new poll has found.

Under Wynne, the minority Liberals are at 42 per cent in the city compared with 30 per cent for Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats, 25 per cent for Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives, and 3 per cent for Mike Schreiner’s Greens.

With 23 of Ontario’s 107 ridings in the provincial capital — and the Liberals holding 18 of the seats and the NDP five — that’s good news for the rookie premier, said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

“Wynne’s honeymoon is continuing. She’s really connecting with people,” Bozinoff said Wednesday, noting the New Democrats are not doing as well as they should in Toronto.

Using interactive voice response phone calls, Forum polled 1,045 Toronto residents on Tuesday with results considered accurate to within five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Bozinoff said the poll should alarm the Tories, who have not won a Toronto provincial seat since 1999 despite Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s success here in the 2011 federal election and Mayor Rob Ford’s 2010 civic victory.

“They’re still not in it in Toronto. They need a 416 strategy.”

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/03/21/forum_poll_kathleen_wy...

 

Not only are the Liberals down 5% in Toronto compared to the 2011 election, Wynne is still in her honeymoon phase of government that always ends as the inevitable problems of governing crop up and mistakes and/or scandals occur. The only question is whether she can call an election fast enough and then withstand the much stronger scrutiny that comes with an election campaign before the honeymoon bubble bursts.

jjuares

Debater wrote:

jjuares wrote:

Debater wrote:

,.... so what's to be discouraged about?

For the Liberals? Oh, I don't know, how about actual election results!

Do you mean the last 3 back to back victories in Ontario?

No,I was talking about the last byelection as well the last general election in Ont. Not a good sign or trend.  

Debater

The Ontario Liberals have been in power for nearly 10 years - that is the longest period of time they have been in power in modern history.  

McGuinty transformed Ontario from one dominated by the PC's into one in which the Liberals have become a major political force.  But of course they won't be in power forever.  Voters will want a change at some point - all provincial governments change from time to time (except in Alberta it seems).

Btw, after the last general election, the Ontario Liberals went on to win nearly every seat provincially that Ignatieff had lost federally earlier that year.  That's pretty good, IMO.  The McGuinty Liberals also won the Vaughan by-election easily over the Conservatives.

On the other hand, there are some who wouldn't mind a temporary loss of government for the Ontario Liberals.  It could actually help the federal Liberals in the next election since historically Ontario balances the way it votes provincially with the way it votes federally.  Having some of the baggage of the Ontario Liberals out of office could be good for the Federal Liberals in Ontario in 2015, and Warren Kinsella recently spoke about this.

Socialist Feminist

Debater wrote:

 

On the other hand, there are some who wouldn't mind a temporary loss of government for the Ontario Liberals.  It could actually help the federal Liberals in the next election since historically Ontario balances the way it votes provincially with the way it votes federally.  Having some of the baggage of the Ontario Liberals out of office could be good for the Federal Liberals in Ontario in 2015, and Warren Kinsella recently spoke about this.

 

Kinsella likes Justin and Pupatello. He does not like Wynne.

Socialist Feminist

Forum

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/03/29/ontario_premier_kathleen_wynnes_popularity_growing_poll_finds.html

 

Tea Party 35

Liberal 32

NDP 26

 

Horwath 44

Wynne 40

Tea Party Tim 27

Socialist Feminist
janfromthebruce

Bad news for Wynne if election held tomorrow: Poll

That's according to a poll by Ipsos Reid done for Newstalk 1010, Global Television and the National Post.

Six in ten people surveyed say they believe Wynne has done a good job but decided voters feel different.

Around 37 per cent would vote for Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak and 29 per cent would cast their ballot for NDP leader Andrea Horwath. Wynne is considered in a dead-heat with Horwath for second place with 28 per cent of decided voters supporting the Liberals.

snip

Wynne is tied with Hudak with 32 per cent of Ontarians believe she would make the best premier. Horwath trails slightly with 30 per cent.

I haven't actually seen how the poll was done and so who knows how valid this poll results are. What's interesting is that Horwath NDP is ahead of the Wynne Libs, and that essentially all are tied as being best premier. 32 and 30 are within the margin of error for stats.

HumbleOne

So its 37 PC, 29 NPD, 28 LIB.  If this poll reflects the true state of affairs then I think the budget will will pass.  Neither the NDP and LIB's are not likely go to the voters.  We a looking at a  possible majority government for the PC,s.  Even with a minority PC government the NDP will have no power to alter new bills.  I think the best path forward is to make a deal with the liberals on the budget.  Give them another year in office and see how polls respond in a year.  That said maybe NDP internal polls have a better result for the NDP.  But at the current poll making up 8% is unlikely, I doubt the PC vote will move to NDP rather maybe to the liberals.  So that leaves a collapse of the LIB's vote as the only way the NDP can catch the PCs.

janfromthebruce

That is one poll done by Ipsos Reid. I wouldn't be betting the house on one poll and I'd like to see what the actual questions were, and also was it landline based or what.

johnpauljones

the issue as i see it is more of can the liberals under Wynne pick up the 3 new seats that they need to get to the magic number of 54 for a majority government. If they think that they can find 3 new seats and hold the existing or any combination of that then they will issue a poison pill. If the numbers are not there then the NDP will be played to keep the government alive. If we do go to the polls fears of a PC win even a minority one could be enough to move some '11 NDP seats back to the liberals. THerefore the question as I see it is can the NDP prevent a pick up of 3 more liberal seats.

janfromthebruce

well I don't see the Libs picking the body of the NDP but the other way around. So let's look up north to a few very vulnerable seats for the Libs. Let's go to that seat in Windsor which is now vacant.

I'm thinking that the optics of Libs in 3rd place would not be a place of strength.

mark_alfred

I'm astounded that the PCs are doing as well as they are.  But it is Ontario, after all, so I suppose I really shouldn't be surprised.

janfromthebruce

I'm just not sure about that poll Mark, and who commissioned it, and what the questions were. Hudak has never been popular and so not sure where it is coming from.

Socialist Feminist

mark_alfred wrote:

I'm astounded that the PCs are doing as well as they are. 

 

Me too. Tea Party Tim = disaster. So I don't want an election.

Brachina

janfromthebruce wrote:

Bad news for Wynne if election held tomorrow: Poll

That's according to a poll by Ipsos Reid done for Newstalk 1010, Global Television and the National Post.

Six in ten people surveyed say they believe Wynne has done a good job but decided voters feel different.

Around 37 per cent would vote for Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak and 29 per cent would cast their ballot for NDP leader Andrea Horwath. Wynne is considered in a dead-heat with Horwath for second place with 28 per cent of decided voters supporting the Liberals.

snip

Wynne is tied with Hudak with 32 per cent of Ontarians believe she would make the best premier. Horwath trails slightly with 30 per cent.

I haven't actually seen how the poll was done and so who knows how valid this poll results are. What's interesting is that Horwath NDP is ahead of the Wynne Libs, and that essentially all are tied as being best premier. 32 and 30 are within the margin of error for stats.

I wonder if this is a sign that Wynne's honeymoon is almost over?

I'll feel much better when I see Andrea eatting into Wynn's numbers.

janfromthebruce

Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals jump into first-place tie with Tories: poll (TorStar)

The Liberals and Conservatives are each at 36 per cent while the NDP has slipped further behind to 24 per cent, with Mike Schreiner’s Green Party at 4 per cent, according to the Forum Research survey for the Star.

This latest poll reveals that Wynne’s left-leaning Liberals are continuing to siphon support mostly from Horwath’s New Democrats. Since taking over from former premier Dalton McGuinty in February, she has been slowly reversing the Liberals’ fortunes.

In the Forum snapshot of March 28, the Tories had 35 per cent and the Grits had 32 per cent, with the New Democrats at 26 per cent and the Greens at 5 per cent.

On March 4, the polling firm found a statistical three-way tie with the Liberals and Conservatives at 32 per cent apiece and the NDP at 29 per cent, while the Greens were at 5 per cent.

But Horwath remains the most popular of the three leaders.

She has a 43 per cent approval rating with 32 per cent disapproval and 25 per cent of respondents unsure.

In contrast, Wynne has a 38 per cent approval and a 39 per cent disapproval, with 23 per cent of those surveyed uncertain.

Hudak, meanwhile, continues to languish with a 27 per cent approval, a 51 per cent disapproval and 22 per cent unsure.

“Horwath’s challenge is to translate her personal popularity into support for her party because Wynne seems to have reached a ceiling on her approval rating while Hudak just can’t seem to break through,” said Bozinoff.

“The NDP has to be taking a very close look at things,” he said, emphasizing “it’s going to be very hard for the NDP to explain” if they trigger an election even though the Liberals meet their budget requests.

“The New Democrats have to be very, very careful.”

Also the majority do not want an election.

So the NDP ideas in which Libs incorporate are verry popular but it appears it helps the Liberals rather than the NDP, or so the pollster suggests.

 

toaster

The 8% difference for the Liberals in the two polls is fishy, and not within the margin of error.  Typical Toronto Star Liberal bias, I'm guessing.

Socialist Feminist

Aren't Ipsos, National Post, and Newstalk 1010 pro PC?

mark_alfred

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/04/29/kathleen_wynnes_liberals_j...

 

Don't know if I consider this good news or not.

janfromthebruce

The Liberal TorStar has been doing the Liberal drum beat for a long long time - whether Wynne or Trudeau it's positive PR for both. Than they commission a poll which guess what, the libs are ahead, except Andrea still gets top leadership marks.

toaster

Well today we'll find out more about the budget.  Originally I was hoping the NDP would support the budget (or abstain), but the more I think about it, the more I think an election in 2013 would be best for Ontario provincial politics.  If it isn't, we very well could have have 3 elections within the span of a year (Oct. 2014 to Oct-2015), and for some reason, Ontario elections seem to be the least interesting to the electorate.  Also, Andrea needs the full support of the electorate and her supporters (financially and otherwise), and if supporters have to choose between her and Mulcair, I'm not sure she'll receive as much support. 

knownothing knownothing's picture
mark_alfred

The current budget situation reminds me of the situation years ago with Layton and Martin.  Martin's government was mired in controversy and scandal, so supporting it was a tricky proposition for Layton.  At first he did, and got some concessions from Martin, but then since no further concessions were forthcoming, he did not support them.  Some still have mixed feelings about this.  Andrea likewise has been getting some good concessions from Wynne, but Wynne's Liberals are mired in controversy.  Interesting to see what happens.

Brachina

toaster wrote:

The 8% difference for the Liberals in the two polls is fishy, and not within the margin of error.  Typical Toronto Star Liberal bias, I'm guessing.

Yeah The Star's Liberal bias is getting out of hand, you can tell by the fact that thier site seems to have no coverage of the AG report because it could embarrass Justin.

This poll does seem fishy, the Liberals are crazy mired in controversey and scandal, so I'm sceptical.

felixr

mark_alfred wrote:

The current budget situation reminds me of the situation years ago with Layton and Martin.  Martin's government was mired in controversy and scandal, so supporting it was a tricky proposition for Layton.  At first he did, and got some concessions from Martin, but then since no further concessions were forthcoming, he did not support them.  Some still have mixed feelings about this.  Andrea likewise has been getting some good concessions from Wynne, but Wynne's Liberals are mired in controversy.  Interesting to see what happens.

Me too. I think the ONDP need to support this one (or let it pass by abstention) and invest a lot more resources into developing better policy and a better set of demands for next time. Part of the problem with the ONDP's ask this time around was that it was so weak (and so lacking in a unique vision), it made it easy for the Liberals to accept without looking like the ONDP was doing all the heavy lifting. So the ONDP gets what they want, but they need to examine themselves, so that next time they have a better set of demands and better vision for where they want to take the province and how the current budgetary crisis can be solved permanently. If I was the ONDP, I would be calling for a more progressive income and a reworking of the public service to make it more service-based and avoidant of fly-by-night schemes like ORNGE or the electronic health records scam or many other high-cost, low value experiments the Liberals have spent their political capital/credibility on.

toaster

I think the ONDP purposely set out "weak" demands so that the Liberal would include them.  That way they get to keep government going, and say "Look, they put in what we wanted, so we will support it" in order to avoid an election  They had plenty of time (particularly with the prorogation) to come up with policy demands, so it is highly unlikely that they weren't "prepared".  The NDP would have put in the ONTC, de-privitizing highway maintenance, increases to Ontario Drug Benefit, and iterature about the teachers salaries if they wanted to make real demands.  However, if they did that, it woiuld be a gamble as the Liberals would likely not include them, and as such, the NDP would not be able to support it.

felixr

Still. Pretty "weak" if you ask me. No vision. Weak progress.

Socialist Feminist
Socialist Feminist

Brachina wrote:

 The Star's Liberal bias

 

From April 30, 2011

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2011/04/30/toronto_star_endorses_the_ndp.html

 

 

And from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_Star :

"The Star endorsed the social democratic New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Ed Broadbent in 1979 and Progressive Conservative leader Robert Stanfield in 1972."

 

janfromthebruce

SF, well the star does have a liberal bias unless they know there is no way the voters are going that way and than very reluctantly, they will support the NDP, for example. In 2011, they supported the NDP federally but reluctantly.

mark_alfred

The NDP come up with good ideas, the Liberals adopt some of them, and the obviously corrupt Liberals poll higher, while the NDP polls lower.  Also, Ford tarnishes the Tory brand, yet the Tories continue to poll reasonable well while the NDP plummets.  Ontario really is an idiotic place.  link

jerrym

The latest Ipsos-Reid poll shows the PCs and Liberals tied at 34% while the NDP has 26%. The regional and demographic breakdown of the poll is given below.

Quote:

Examining the Vote by Region…

The Liberals appear to be doing well in the GTA, but outside of the GTA other parties are more competitive:

  • In the GTA, the Liberals (40%) lead the PCs (32%) and NDP (21%).
  • In Southwest Ontario, the race between the PCs (35%) and the NDP (34%) is tight, with the Liberals (25%) slightly back.
  • In Central Ontario, the Tories (36%) have a lead over the Grits (31%) and the NDP (26%).
  • In Eastern Ontario, the PCs (42%) are also most competitive, staving off the Liberals (32%) and the NDP (24%).
  • In Northern Ontario, the NDP (39%) and Liberals (38%) are tied, with the Tories (22%) well back.

PCs strong among Older Ontarians; Liberals Younger Ontarians… Each party appears to have its bastion of support, pitting demographics like age and gender against each other:

  • The Tories (37%) have a slight advantage over the Liberals (35%) among men, while the NDP (23%) aren’t very competitive among this demographic.
  • Among women, the vote is fairly evenly split among those who support the Liberals (34%), Tories (30%) and NDP (30%).
  • Among those aged 18 to 34, the Liberals (40%) are well ahead of the NDP (32%) and the Tories (21%).
  • Among middle-aged (35-54) Ontarians, the Grits (37%) have a slight advantage over the Tories (33%), with the NDP (24%) trailing.
  • Among those aged 55+, the Tories (44%) have a commanding lead over both the Liberals (28%) and the NDP (25%).
  • Among those who are active on social media, creating content and discussing issues of policy and politics on a regular basis, the Liberals (38%) have a significant advantage over the PCs (29%) and NDP (29%).

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6127

Brachina

So two or three endorsements over how many election is supposed to prove the The Star isn't a Liberal rag? There constant actions and the fact that they're endorsed horrible Liberal government after horrible Liberal government shows different, a few moments were they choose different changes nothing.

And its not all of Ontario, its certain regions, honestly mostly the GTA that is responibly for the stupidity, northern Ontario is a major bastion of support for the NDP, its the GTA burbs that are the problem aka Ford Nation which is a mix of Liberals and Tories.

autoworker autoworker's picture

Stupid Ontario, or dumb policy wonks who don't understand it?

ctrl190

Latest Star/Forum poll:

PC - 36% 

LIB - 31%

NDP - 27%

 

308's seat projections:

PC - 46

LIB - 31

NDP - 30

 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2013/07/ontario-pcs-have-advantage-in-latest.html

janfromthebruce

As usual in the Star article it did not mention that the NDP had increased 3% from the last poll.

Tories add to lead over Liberals in byelections race

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