Ontario polling thread (April 18, 2012)

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janfromthebruce

This wasn't 308.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

None of the pollsters were anywhere close in BC. The polling game has changed with the advent of cell phones and call display.

NorthReport

What did the pollster say?  Oh them.  Ha! Ha! Ha! Laughing

http://www.torontosun.com/2013/11/28/tories-could-topple-wynne-poll

 

NorthReport

Forum

PCs - 38%

Libs - 31%

NDP - 24%

janfromthebruce

It's not a poll but to understand the relentless attacks when the NDP gets good polls and particularly Andrea's great polling numbers:

The hidden history of Bob Rae's government in Ontario

Gerald Caplan

Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Oct. 08 2010, 11:06 AM EDT

I am going to post most of it. It's old but good lesson here.

When the NDP won government in Ontario exactly 20 years ago, it constituted the greatest advance for social democracy in North American history.

It's true that British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba had all elected NDP governments and that progressives had won small victories in various parts of the United States. But none of them (I hope this doesn't hurt their feelings) mattered in the same way Ontario then did. It was the economic heartland of Canada, the home of much of Canada's industry and finance. What happened in Ontario impacted all Canadians. Now it was under the control of Bob Rae and the New Democrats.

Reflecting this reality, within months Mr. Rae's government faced an unrelenting, brutal four-year onslaught that was unprecedented in Canadian history.

The attacks came from all sides. It is no exaggeration to say hysterical fear-mongering and sabotage was the order of the day. Launched within the very first year of the new government, the attackers included every manner of business big and small, both Canadian and American-owned, almost all private media, the police (especially in Toronto), landlords and lobbying/government relations firms. Their goal was clear, and they had the money and power to achieve it.

They were determined to undermine the government every step of the way, to frustrate the implementation of its plans and to assure its ultimate defeat. In all three goals they were successful. The considerable achievements of the government - often forgotten or dismissed -were wrought in the face of a deep recession and ferocious obstruction.

The tactics were not necessarily subtle. Though the Soviet Union was ignominiously imploding, right-wing columnists such as Diane Francis and Barbara Amiel actually resorted to old-fashioned red baiting, smearing the government as "red" or "communist." And after the new finance minister's very first meeting with the banking community , a bank vice-president told him, in the presence of an aide: "Nice speech, Mr. Minister, but we're going to kill you." And they did.

Conrad Black was a leading executioner. Lord Black swore loudly that on principle he'd never invest in Ontario under an NDP government. Other corporate interests threatened a virtual strike of capital unless the government relented on its intentions to introduce higher business taxes and to strengthen union rights, environmental regulations and equity programs.

Mr. Rae and treasurer Floyd Laughren made themselves easily accessible to business representatives, many of whom ran Canadian branch plants of huge American multinationals, only to be threatened with capital blackmail. The premier was warned that their U.S. head offices weren't about to invest further in Ontario unless the government abandoned most of the programs it had run on.

Bond traders declared that slashing government programs to reduce the deficit was a prerequisite to Ontario borrowing at competitive rates, even though Ontario's deficit was equivalent to that of Conservative-run Alberta. Suddenly the entire media was fixated on the government's threatened credit ratings, never mind that Ontario had the only Standard & Poor's AAA rating in the country. The Social Credit government in British Columbia, the Conservatives in Alberta and Robert Bourassa's Liberals in Quebec all had lower credit ratings. Yet only in Ontario was the government threatened.

NDP government decision-makers, while innocent about so much, at least understood that the corporate world was not given to bluffing. Time after time they responded to the endless corporate blackmail by compromising on policies and commitments. In this way, they alienated many of their own followers but without ever appeasing business interests. They never could.

Some business protests bordered on the disloyal. Hysterical landlords took out an ad in The Wall Street Journal warning Americans not to invest in "leftist Ontario." Others demanded the complete repudiation by the government of its most cherished legislation, as when several coalitions of powerful business interests, managed by government relations firms such as Hill & Knowlton, demanded the NDP scrap its entire plan to amend the Labour Relations Act. This was the kind of class warfare Lenin might have admired, especially since the government had already withdrawn many of its intended changes in order to meet business criticism.

One front organization, the "All-Business Coalition," won headlines for warning that amendments the government had already disavowed would cost 450,000 jobs and cost $20-billion in investment. All the while the same groups were deliberately frightening investment away from the province.

 

Hostility to these fictional amendments also led to unusual solidarity among Toronto's rival newspapers. Of course hostile editorials were fully expected. Less predictable were the full-page statements in the press denouncing the labor amendments. Even more unprecedented was the delegation consisting of the publishers of all three dailies who appeared in the premier's office to express their hostility in person. The media in general played a key role in mobilizing perpetual hostility to the government, with business columnists regularly stirring up their readers while the Toronto Sun especially wallowed in the sheer joy of unrestrained excess and fabrication.

Throughout the five years of the Rae government, the Sun was its most powerful and effective foe, doing everything in its considerable power to damage the government. It repeatedly set the agenda for the entire media, even though competing reporters knew much of it was sheer hooey. The Sun gleefully sensationalized embarrassing facts, mere rumors, vicious innuendos and obvious lies, with no attempt to discriminate among them.

Perhaps the most chilling and underestimated of the government's enemies were the Toronto police, whose actions at times bordered dangerously on virtual insubordination against the civilian authorities. Here too certain newspapers and radio commentators repeatedly and deliberately inflamed angry officers against the government. Most successful was the Sun's ongoing, systematic campaign to drive a wedge between the government and the Toronto police force, sometimes with the collusion of the police themselves.

The Sun and senior Toronto police officials maintained a troubling relationship. In one particularly outrageous episode, they colluded in smearing an NDP appointee to the police board on the very evening of her swearing-in. The Sun published intimate information on the appointee that could come, many thought, only from the office of the chief. Sun readers then began their 1991 Victoria Day weekend with a huge banner headline proclaiming "COP COMMISSIONER PART OF OPP PROBE". The story claimed the new appointee had been discovered in a car in the middle of the night with a very shady operator connected to an even shadier operator.

It was a blatant frame-up. On Victoria Day itself, the Sun came clean . They publicly acknowledged the sheerimpossibility of anyone confusing the police commission member with the real passenger the OPP had found in the car. A Sun reporter described an "undeclared but very real state of war that exists between the new, NDP-appointed members of the police board and the great majority of the Metro [Toronto]force." But that was pure mischief. The only war was the one the Sun was methodically fomenting.

The government introduced regulations that substituted the Constitution for the Queen in the oath that cops had to swear. Many media swiftly exploited the occasion to further exacerbate tensions between the police and the NDP. Yet the change had actually been initiated by the previous Liberal government and had been recommended by a committee consisting mainly of police. Their work had been completed when the NDP took office; the Rae government was simply implementing their recommendations.

I documented these facts publicly after interviewing numerous police reps, every one of whom supported the new oath. Nor could they see what the big deal was about. I asked the Toronto Sun, CFRB radio and CFTO-TV, who had most flagrantly misled the public on the issue, to demonstrate good faith by apologizing. Not one admitted the slightest fault. Good faith was in short supply in those years.

There are a world of studies yet to be written about the Ontario NDP's difficult and controversial years in office, none more important than the nature of the saboteurs who organized their very own Ontario coup. This includes much of the business community, government relations firms, the media and the police. There are lessons to learn here about the limits of left-wing politics in Canada. None of them are encouraging if you are a left-winger.

 

 

NorthReport

The Nanos Ontario Provincial Tracking

 

The latest Nanos tracking shows the Ontario Liberals with 36 percent support followed by the Tories and NDP in a tight race for second (28 percent and 27 percent respectively).  Green Party support in the province of Ontario stands at 8 percent.

 

Of note, there has been negative pressure on support for the Ontario Conservatives over the past few waves of tracking.

 

On the Nanos Leadership Index, Wynne has the clear advantage at 71 points followed by Horwath at 55 points, and Hudak at 49 points.

 

Healthcare remains the top unprompted issue of concern at 19 percent followed by jobs/the economy at 17 percent.

 

To view the report, visit our website
Methodology

The current wave of data is based on a random telephone survey of 500 Ontarians conducted between January 17th and 20th, 2014 as part of an Ontario omnibus survey. The dual frame sample included both land- and cell-lines across Ontario. The results were statistically checked and weighted using the latest Census data to ensure the data was representative of the Ontarian population. Individuals randomly called using random digit dialing and were called five times.

 

The margin of error for a random survey of 500 Ontarians is ±4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. 

 

 Nanos Provincial Tracking Summary as of January 20th, 2014:(+/- denotes change from previous wave of tracking ending 15 December 2013)  
 Ontario Issue TrackingQuestion: What is your most important PROVINCIAL issue of concern? [Open-ended] Healthcare:18.7% (+0.1)Jobs/economy: 16.8% (+6.1)Education: 7.0% (-0.2)High taxes: 5.5% (-1.4)Debt/deficit: 5.2% (-2.1)Environment: 4.1% (0)Other: 24.0% (+2.6)Unsure: 18.5% (0) Ontario Ballot Tracking Question: For those parties you would consider voting for PROVINCIALLY, could you please rank your top two preferences? [First Ranked Choice] Liberal Party: 35.5% (-2.4)Conservative Party: 28.1% (-2.2)NDP: 27.4% (+2.1)Green Party: 8.1% (+2.4)

 

Ontario Leadership Index Tracking

 

Kathleen Wynne: 70.6 (-6.8)Andrea Horwath: 54.7 (+11)Tim Hudak: 49.0 (-7.1)Mike Schreiner: 10.6 (-1.1) Ontario Leadership Vision TrackingQuestion - Which of the provincial party leaders would you best describe as having the best vision for Ontario's future?

 

Kathleen Wynne: 22.3% (-0.7)Tim Hudak: 18.7% (-0.8)  Andrea Horwath: 17.3% (+3.3)Mike Schreiner: 4.1% (-0.2)None of them: 8.0% (-1.1)Unsure: 29.7% (-0.4)

 

Ontario Leadership Trust TrackingQuestion - Which of the provincial party leaders would you best describe as being the most trustworthy leader?
Kathleen Wynne: 21.7% (-2.9)Andrea Horwath: 20.1% (+2.9) Tim Hudak: 14.3% (-3.8)Mike Schreiner: 3.4% (-0.2)None of them: 14.0% (+0.2)Unsure: 26.4% (+3.8) Ontario Leadership Competence TrackingQuestion - Which of the provincial party leaders would you best describe as most competent?

 

Kathleen Wynne: 26.6% (-3.2)Andrea Horwath: 17.3% (+4.8) Tim Hudak: 16.0% (-2.5)Mike Schreiner: 3.1% (-0.7)None of them: 7.6% (-2.3)Unsure: 29.4% (+4.0)

 

Feel free to forward this e-mail. 
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Nik Nanos, FMRIA 
Chairman email: nnanos@nanosresearch.com  web: http://www.nanosresearch.com  

 

NorthReport

Ontario Liberals in hot seat in wake of spending scandal

A new poll reveals that Ontarians want an election called in wake of the gas plant scandal.

 

http://www.torontosun.com/videos/3193328422001#2780895450001

NorthReport

Ipsos Reid today:

NDP tied for 2nd place in latest Ontario poll. Time to pull the plug Andrea!

PCs - 34%

NDP - 31%

Libs - 31%

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10340

NorthReport

Ipsos Reid today:

 

Andrea Horwath would make best leader for Ontario.

 

And the Liberal brand is in trouble.

Bricker says NDP has a definite chance at forming the government.

And he says that Hudak does not have a lot of room to grow.

 

Brachina

http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/02/ipsos-ontario-liberal-support-is-soft-...

 

 Warren Kinesella thinks the Provincial Liberals are screwed. When you factor in just likely voters the NDP goes up to 34% the PC 37% (yuck), and the Liberals drop to 27%. I'm curious if any of the blow back will land on Justin Trudeau and the Federal Liberals.

David Young

Brachina wrote:

 I'm curious if any of the blow back will land on Justin Trudeau and the Federal Liberals.

Did Justin (It-For-Me) Trudeau campaign for either of the Liberal candidates in Windsor-Tecumseh and/or London West in last fall's by-elections?

If so, that information should be shared every time Justin (It-For-Me) Trudeau's name gets mentioned as the 'Saviour Of The Liberal Party' by anyone who hasn't yet seen through his facade.

 

janfromthebruce

Trudeau campaigned for the Ontario Liberals in the recent byelection campaigns in Niagara Falls and in Thornhill. Obviously it had no effect. In Thornhill the Liberal vote stayed about the same as in the general 2011 election. In Niagara Falls, Liberal vote share bled to the NDP. How about a negative effect? So celebrity status which may be waning has no effect.

Brachina

 Justin did a robo call in Kitchener Waterloo t no effect in that campaign as well, although that was before he was leader. 

David Young

Something else to consider about the timing of the next Ontario provincial election...!

When the new federal boundaries come into being this May, would it be of greater advantage to any particular party to wait and have those new boundaries in place before an election?

 

Krago

Brachina wrote:

http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/02/ipsos-ontario-liberal-support-is-soft-...

Warren Kinesella thinks the Provincial Liberals are screwed. When you factor in just likely voters the NDP goes up to 34% the PC 37% (yuck), and the Liberals drop to 27%. I'm curious if any of the blow back will land on Justin Trudeau and the Federal Liberals.

 

Warren Kinsella is not a Liberal; he is a paid-up member of the Warren Kinsella Party.  He thinks the Provincial Liberals are screwed because they didn't do what he told them to do (elect Sandra Pupatello as leader) and because they aren't letting him and his friends run the party (for a fee, of course).  If Pupatello was leader, would Warren have allowed a single nice word about Horwath to pass his lips?  Not a chance!

Like Chretien, another three-time winner, McGuinty left office trailing a huge stench of corruption and mismanagement.  If Pupatello had won, she would have gone straight into a provincial election that would have handed Tea Party Timmy a majority government on a silver platter.  Kathleen Wynne has spent an entire year doing a very good job of polishing the turd that is the Ontario Liberal government.  She may not come out of this on top, but by mending fences with the unions, particularly her attack dogs in the Working Families Coalition, she has given the Liberals a fighting chance to hold on to power.

NorthReport

Within the margin of error all three parties are now tied for top spot.

Andrea needs to take advantage of the credibility she has earned, based on the excellent way she is connecting with Ontario voters, and hopefully she will consider pulling the plug, and assuming Hudak is not bluffing about wanting to go to the polls, the NDP could win the election.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6428

 

NorthReport

Ipsos: Ontario Liberal support is soft as butter  Laughing

http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/02/ipsos-ontario-liberal-support-is-soft-...

Skinny Dipper

Of course, Warren Kinsella is unofficially working on the possible Olivia Chow campaign.  He is going after John Tory because I think he knows who will be the main competition for Olivia Chow.  It won't be Rob Ford; it will be John Tory.  Rob Ford's support will likely go down once the mayoral race gets into action.  Olivia Chow needs Kinsella to neutralize John Tory as soon as possible so that she may have a fighting chance at winning the mayoral race.  Including Rob Ford, there will likely be five strong candidates: Ford, Chow, Tory, Karen Stintz, and David Soknacki.  Even though John Tory is a conservative candidate, he may have the ability to attract some progressive voters.  It's Kinsella's job to make Tory into a rich right-wing sexist candidate who enjoys playing golf.

On the provincial front, Warren Kinsella is attacking his own Ontario Liberal Party because he is not in Kathleen Wynne's inner circle (for a fee).

PrairieDemocrat15

Forgive me, I'm not an Ontarian and know little about current Ontario politics (especially of the Liberal variety), but was Pupatello generally considered the right-wing or blue Liberal candidate in the OLP leadership race? And was Wynne the more left-wing candidate? In his blog Kinsella called Wynne a New Democrat at heart. I doubt that, but she seems to have put a slightly more leftist spin on the Ontario government what with her putting the breaks on the ONTC sell-off and championing a provinical pension scheme. Is this an accurate characterization or am I off-base here?

Brachina

 Liberal politics is always a matter of opportunism. Warren Kinsella attacks Kathleen Wynn, because she screwed his shot at being in the premiers office. So he attacks her for so called being a New Democrat at heart. He then backs an actual New Democract because municple politics is non partisan and Olvia Chow is willing to hire him. He attacks Mulcair more as he sees Mulcair as a threat to the Liberal legacy in a way he doesn't see Andrea Horwath and Chow. Mulcair wants to scrap the Clarity bill for the Unity bill, amoung other things and Warren maybe self interested, but he still views himself as a Liberal.

mark_alfred

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Forgive me, I'm not an Ontarian and know little about current Ontario politics (especially of the Liberal variety), but was Pupatello generally considered the right-wing or blue Liberal candidate in the OLP leadership race? And was Wynne the more left-wing candidate?

Correct.  Wynne was considered the left liberal choice, and Pupatello the right liberal choice. 

 

There's been a new poll.  link

Quote:
The Progressive Conservatives, led by Tim Hudak, were at 35 per cent; Premier Kathleen Wynne’s governing minority Liberals at 32 per cent; the New Democrats, led by Anrea Horwath, were at 26 per cent; and Mike Schreiner’s Green Party was at 6 per cent.

Various policy planks were looked at too:

Minimum wage:

Quote:

Wynne’s plan to raise the minimum wage from $10.25 to $11 as of June 1 was backed by 77 per cent of respondents, while 18 per cent disapprove and 5 per cent don’t know.

Horwath’s pledge to raise the hourly rate to $12 by 2016 was supported by 53 per cent while 34 per cent said $11 is fine and 14 per cent were unsure.

Pensions:

Quote:
The premier’s proposal for an Ontario pension plan to supplement the Canada Pension Plan, expected to be a cornerstone of the Liberal re-election campaign, was backed by 53 per cent, while 27 per cent disapproved and 19 per cent didn’t know.

Liberal transit fees and flat taxes:

Quote:

But Wynne’s pitch to fund transit infrastructure through new taxes and fees appeared to be divisive with 41 per cent agreeing, 42 per cent disagreeing, and 16 per cent uncertain.

Hudak's pondering on "right to work" and doing away with the Rand formula:

Quote:

The Conservative leader on Friday renounced his party’s controversial “right-to-work” policy, which would have scrapped the Rand Formula that requires employees in a unionized workplace to pay dues even if they choose not to join the union.

But Forum found 62 per cent disapproved of the Rand Formula while 24 per cent approved of it and 13 per cent didn’t know.

At the same time, 42 per cent approved of “right-to-work” laws and 40 per cent opposed them with 18 per cent undecided.

Opinions were split on Hudak’s flip-flop – 39 per cent backed the Conservatives’ policy U-turn and 31 per cent disagreed with it and 31 per cent were uncertain.

“They got spooked in Niagara Falls,” Bozinoff said, referring to the Tories’ narrow loss to the NDP in the Feb. 13 byelection after unions rallied against the right-to-work policy.

It's a great victory of both the NDP and the unions to scare the Conservatives away from pursuing the "right to work" stuff.

The NDP is still in striking distance.  Hopefully polling for them will improve.

janfromthebruce

A poll released by Forum Research is disconcerning as he is a Liberal pollster. Liberals always do better in comparison to other pollsters.

josh

The new numbers from Nanos Research put Premier Kathleen Wynne’s party at 36 per cent, unchanged from January. Tim Hudak’s PCs are up five points to 33 while Andrea Horwath’s NDP are statistically unchanged – down two to 25.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tight-race-looms-between-on...

robbie_dee

Quote:
Mindful that Wynne’s political strength is in and around the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, the Liberals have been polling in key ridings currently held by the Progressive Conservatives and NDP.

***

In Toronto, the Gandalf Group polling obtained by the Star suggests the Liberals may fare well in Trinity—Spadina, Davenport, Parkdale—High Park, and Beaches—East York, currently represented by New Democrats. The telephone interview survey of 603 residents in those four ridings — conducted earlier this month –— has a margin of error of 3.99 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Gandalf did not test the names of the local MPPs and candidates, instead using Wynne, Horwath, Hudak, and Green Leader Mike Schreiner to gauge voting intention.

In Trinity—Spadina, represented by veteran Rosario Marchese, the Liberals were at 40 per cent, the NDP 19 per cent, the Tories 13 per cent, and the Greens 7 per cent.

In Davenport, held by rookie Jonah Schein, the Liberals had 37 per cent, the New Democrats 25 per cent, the Tories 7 per cent, and the Greens 4 per cent.

In Parkdale—High Park, where the Grits concede Cheri DiNovo will be difficult to unseat, the Liberals were at 45 per cent, the NDP at 35 per cent, the Tories at 6 per cent, and the Greens at 3 per cent.

In Beaches—East York, stalwart Michael Prue’s stronghold, the Liberals were at 36 per cent, the NDP at 21 per cent, the Tories at 15 per cent, and the Greens at 6 per cent.

[url=http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/03/21/positive_polls_buoy_libera... Star[/url]

mark_alfred

To hell with polls.  I resolve not to look at 'em anymore.

adma

Note that quote:

"Gandalf did not test the names of the local MPPs and candidates, instead using Wynne, Horwath, Hudak, and Green Leader Mike Schreiner to gauge voting intention."

Brachina

 This reeks of a bullshit push poll. TS federally had the NDP with a strong lead and that's with Trudeau mania and before the scandal, for the NDP to be that far back from Wynn would require a huge scandal on Horwaths part. This is a poll from the Liberal Party that some how found its way into the Liberal loving Toronto Star's hand by what accident. Fuck what happened to Journalist ethics or even basic intelligence at the Star.

janfromthebruce

Warren Kinsella ‏@kinsellawarren Mar 21

Hey, let's get the OLP's strategist to do a poll, and we'll get the Star to promote it like it's real! Whee! #onpoli http://m.thestar.com/#!/news/ruling-leaves-top-court-and-marc-nadon-up-in-the-air/ec5c3f7f687b7a9f46b6ab9eb08bf305 …

Brachina

 Yeah I'm still shocked and disgusted the Star did that its one of the most embarrassing and unpfofessional things the star has ever done.

mark_alfred

Recent Ekos poll is good news.

  1. Libs 32%
  2. NDP 29%
  3. Cons 27%

Still, it's anyone's race. 

NorthReport

Do you trust this pollster?

PCs - 36%

Libs - 36%

NDP - 22%

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-ndp-support-down-pc...

josh

Not really. Since you don't provide a link.

mark_alfred

New poll shows NDP slipping.  link

josh

I see that move to the right is really paying off.

Brachina

 One pollster has the NDP at 21%, another at 32%, one pollster had the tories in last just days ago, and now they're in first.

Poll chasing should have thier own detox centres and rehab facilities.

 None of this matters, who wins and who loses is not decided in polls its decided on the campaign trail.

Rokossovsky

josh wrote:

I see that move to the right is really paying off.

The move to the right that was invented by the press? Yes, the Liberal spin may indeed pay off.

Somehow, Horwath going to the CD Howe institute to tell business leaders that she was intending to increase corporate taxes got translated in the Globe and Mail into "Horwath sells out to big business", because she told them she wasn't going to roll back the full 2.5%.

Huh?

One of the only leaders of a political party in Canada to pledge a rollback of austerity tax cuts to corporate capital, is on the right. Yeah.  

The Liberals don't need to have "meetings" with the board at the CD Howe institute, because half of those guys are in the Liberal party executive already, the other half are in the PC party.

jerrym

NorthReport wrote:

Another day, another poll

PCs - 37%

Libs - 32%

NDP - 32%

But can you trust the pollster? 

 

I think the poll North Report was referring to was the Ipsos Reid poll which had the NDP at 27%, not 32%. 

Quote:
 

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, the Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak would receive 37% support among decided voters (up 3 points), while Premier Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals would receive 32% of the vote (up 1 point). Andrea Horwath and her NDP are very much in the hunt at 27% support (down 4 points), while some other party (including the Green Party) would receive 5% of the vote (up 1 point). Two in ten (20%) Ontarians remain undecided, which is a very high percentage.

With a relatively tight national race among the three major parties, each party draws its core support from different areas of the province.

  • The Liberals (40%) show the most strength in Toronto proper (416 area code), followed by the NDP (33%), the PCs (24%), and others (4%).
  • In the equally seat-rich 905 area code of the GTA, the Tories (47%) have a commanding lead over the Liberals (27%), NDP (21%) and others (5%).
  • In Southwestern Ontario, the race is tighter, but the PCs (37%) have built a lead over the Liberals (30%), NDP (27%) and others (5%). This is where the movement has occurred. In Ipsos’ last poll in February, the NDP (43%) were well up on the Liberals (29%) and the Tories (22%).
  • In Eastern Ontario, the Tories (39%) also lead the Grits (34%), NDP (24%) and others (3%).
  • In Northern Ontario, the NDP (43%) have a clear advantage over the Liberals (31%), PCs (18%) and others (8%).

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6479

 

 

 

 

    NorthReport

    Thk Jerryn - thanks for correcting my typo.

    The question remains though can you trust this poster, as this appears to be an identical situation as previously when the NDP was polling well, and a couple of, known for their right-wing connections, pollsters came out with similiar type polls. Coincidence - perhaps.

    NorthReport

    Another day, another poll

    PCs - 37%

    Libs - 32%

    NDP - 27%

    But can you trust the pollster?

     

    NorthReport

    What are the EKOS political connections? Probably Liberal is my hunch.

    EKOS has a poll out this morning which is clearly there to try and manipulate the NDP into not forcing an election.

    Polling wise, the NDP are in a better position now against the PCs and the Libs than the results of the 2011 election.

    So let's take a look at the facts:

     

    Ontario election results - 2011


    Seats

    Libs - 53 seats, down 18

    PCs - 37 seats, up 11

    NDP - 17 seats, up 7

     

    Popular Vote

    Libs - 38%, down 5%

    PCs - 35%, up 4%

    NDP - 23%, up 6%

     

    Ekos today vs 2011 election

    Libs - 35%, down 3%

    PCs - 32%, down 3%

    NDP - 22%, down !%

     

     


     

    -----------------

    11,600

    NorthReport

    Frank Grave's ploy has obvioiusly backfired on him.  Laughing

    mark_alfred

    terrytowel wrote:

    For some of us in Toronto (well those who live in Trinity-Spadina) we will be having THREE elections. This provincial one, an upcoming federal by-election and the muncipal one in October.

    Trinity-Spadina is the lucky recipient to be voting three times in all three levels of government in a six month period.

     

    Cressy, Marchese, and Layton (and Chow for mayor).  Good choices.

    terrytowel

    For some of us in Toronto (well those who live in Trinity-Spadina & Scarborough-Agincourt) we will be having THREE elections. This provincial one, an upcoming federal by-election and the muncipal one in October.

    Trinity-Spadina & Scarborough-Agincourt is the lucky recipient to be voting three times in all three levels of government in a six month period.

     

    terrytowel

    mark_alfred wrote:

    Cressy, Marchese, and Layton (and Chow for mayor).  Good choices.

    What about Vaughan seat on city council? Who will run for that?

    And then we have Scarborough-Agincourt. Those folks will be going to the polls three times in the next six months. Federally, provincially and municpally.

     

    NorthReport

    The Toronto Star and the CBC failed in their attempt to convince Andrea  to support their beloved Liberals.

    If the media can be so slanted in their support of a political party, the same can be said for pollsters, and any polls that come out at the very beginning of a campaign are often very misleading, if not downright wrong. 

     

    http://www.threehundredeight.com/search/label/Ontario

    NorthReport

    How do you spell POLL MANIPULATION?

    What to expect (and not to expect) in Ontario election

    Anything can happen in this provincial election

    There is no crystal ball

    According to current polls, the NDP needs to gain support to move out of its third-place standing. The most recent by Nanos Research shows that the NDP's Andrea Horwath trails Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne in the "make the best premier" category.

    But polls in advance of elections over the past few years have ended up being wrong, says Cathy Worden, vice president of public affairs at Hill & Knowlton Strategies.

    "We have recent examples in Quebec and B.C. where the way things have started out have completely turned on their head in the way that they have ended with results on E-Day," she said. "Absolutely anything can happen in this Ontario election." 


    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/what-to-expect-and-not-to-expect-in-onta...

    terrytowel

    A new Forum Research poll has Tim Hudak’s PCs at  38 per cent, Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals at 33, Andrea Horwath’s New  Democrats at 22

    While the Progressive Conservatives lead in the Forum Research survey,  the Liberals are poised to form another minority government due to the  efficiency of their vote.

    “The Tories need to  get over 40 per cent for a lot of seats to fall their way,” he said. “It  appears the Tories could pick up a few Liberal seats, but the Liberals  are going to pick up a few urban New Democrats’ seats.”

    The pollster said he was “really surprised at the hit that Andrea Horwath has taken in personal approval.”

    Horwath came in at 36  per cent in the new poll, compared to 34 per cent for Wynne and 26 per  cent for Hudak. However, in last month’s Forum poll, she was at 40 per  cent. (Wynne was at 34 per cent and Hudak at 27 per cent.)

    http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/05/04/ontario_poll_tories_le...

    However Forum is the same research pollsters that said Wildrose would sweep AB and the NDP would do the same in BC, Neither happened and their interactive voice response polling has been subject to both scrutiny and criticism.

    Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

    Hopefully, that's a rogue poll.

    mark_alfred

    It's early yet.

    terrytowel

    Both the Liberals and the Conservatives are using cutting edge software to identify key supporters in battleground ridings.

    Progressive Conservative are said to have built a mighty computer program that can slice and dice demographic data to find the best ways to reach out to voters.

    The PCs are believed to already have sophisticated technology for determining where key voting demographics are and how to reach them. Their techniques are a closely guarded secret.

    Liberal insiders privately concede the opposition party is ahead in the technological ground game.

    So the party has also adopted Liberalist, the database built by its federal cousin.

    A Liberal source said the software processes census data that can then be fed into Liberalist and matched to individual addresses. It would show, for instance, which houses or apartments are likely to contain Italian-speaking residents, allowing a campaign to target them with Italian-speaking volunteers.

    The software lets users see where particular cultural groups are clustered, so they can tailor their campaign efforts to the community. If the tool identified a neighbourhood with a high number of Muslim residents, for example, a campaign can structure its canvassing efforts around prayer times, the source said. The program has already been used by the federal Liberals.

    No word on what the NDP uses, as they are holding their cards close to their vest.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/database-helps-liberals-woo...

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