Ontario polling thread (April 18, 2012)

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PrairieDemocrat15

terrytowel wrote:

A new Forum Research poll has Tim Hudak’s PCs at  38 per cent, Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals at 33, Andrea Horwath’s New  Democrats at 22

While the Progressive Conservatives lead in the Forum Research survey,  the Liberals are poised to form another minority government due to the  efficiency of their vote.

“The Tories need to  get over 40 per cent for a lot of seats to fall their way,” he said. “It  appears the Tories could pick up a few Liberal seats, but the Liberals  are going to pick up a few urban New Democrats’ seats.”

The pollster said he was “really surprised at the hit that Andrea Horwath has taken in personal approval.”

Horwath came in at 36  per cent in the new poll, compared to 34 per cent for Wynne and 26 per  cent for Hudak. However, in last month’s Forum poll, she was at 40 per  cent. (Wynne was at 34 per cent and Hudak at 27 per cent.)

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/05/04/ontario_poll_tories_le...

However Forum is the same research pollsters that said Wildrose would sweep AB and the NDP would do the same in BC, Neither happened and their interactive voice response polling has been subject to both scrutiny and criticism.

PC 38% - LIB 33% - NDP 22% = PC 45 - LIB 49 - NDP 13 seats each? It seems the PC and NDP vote has gotten a lot less efficient since 2011.

I'm not one for conspiracies, but this poll - along with a lot of Forum's work - stinks. The wording of their polling questions on unions and public service contracting-out were misleading, confusing, and inconsistent; their polling in the federal Manitoba byelections was crazy (many people were called multiple times for one poll), and the seat projections from these polling figures seem way out of wack. Either Forum is incompetent or they favour the Liberals. Probably a bit of both.

nicky

The "hit" has surely been exagerated both by Forum and by the Toronto Star which ran the poll as its main story on Sunday with a headline "NDP Move Backfires"

In fact the poll shows a 1% reduction in NDP support and a 4% reduction in Horwath's, still leaving her ahead of the others.

The Liberals are running hard on the theme that the NDP has spurned an NDP budget" ( that the Liberals will abandon if re-elected). The media is echoing this in what, unfortunately, may be a self-fulfilling prophesy.

NorthReport

Ipsos on Ontario: province on the wrong track, majority want change 

This poll - by a real polling firm, not an IVR bucket shop – was out just under two weeks ago.  That’s a lifetimes in politics, of course, but the numbers are big enough to still permit us to draw some conclusions.

  • “…two in three (68%) Ontarians more closely believe that it is ‘time for another provincial party to take over’.”
  • “Further, just four in ten (42%) believe that ‘Ontario is currently on the right track’…“
  • “Conversely, six in ten (58%) believe it is ‘headed in the wrong direction’.” 

In my lifetime, a political party have indeed won when about 70 per cent of the electorate want them kicked out.  But I can’t think of an example of that ever happening. (Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?)

On the other hand, the Wynne Liberals’ “right track” number isn’t a total disaster.  But nearly 60 per cent saying the province is headed in the wrong direction ain’t all that encouraging, either.

These are the numbers you should be looking at when assessing an election, folks.  Not the horserace numbers: those are for rubes.

The above “wrong track” and “change” numbers – plus the fact that the wrong people are running Wynne’s campaign – still suggest to me that the Ontario Liberals have a very, very tough 912 hours ahead of them.  (That’s 38 days, in case you are wondering.)

Doesn’t sound like much time, does it?

- See more at: http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/05/ipsos-on-ontario-province-on-the-wrong...

 

http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/05/ipsos-on-ontario-province-on-the-wrong...

mark_alfred

nicky wrote:

The "hit" has surely been exagerated both by Forum and by the Toronto Star which ran the poll as its main story on Sunday with a headline "NDP Move Backfires"

In fact the poll shows a 1% reduction in NDP support and a 4% reduction in Horwath's, still leaving her ahead of the others.

The Liberals are running hard on the theme that the NDP has spurned an NDP budget" ( that the Liberals will abandon if re-elected). The media is echoing this in what, unfortunately, may be a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Maybe (re: your last sentence).  But things are a lot more volatile then they used to be.  None of the media expected the orange crush to happen in the last federal election.  It scared a lot of the right-wing power brokers.  I think Andrea's success at building up the Ontario NDP to a real contender from practically nothing also has them scared.  The right-wing power brokers are nervous.  This has the potential to become very exciting.  The mainstream media holds less sway on people than it previously did. 

PrairieDemocrat15

Forum's most recent Ontario poll that had the PCs at 38%, the libs at 33%, and the NDP at 22% undersampled voters under 35 years of age and did not properly control for the very small sample: http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/05/pcs-gain-as-campaign-begins.html

Their secret seat weighting formula is also suspect and consistantly disadvantages the NDP.

Forum is wothout a doubt the worst pollster in Canada, and given recent polling, that's saying quite a lot.

mark_alfred

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Forum's most recent Ontario poll that had the PCs at 38%, the libs at 33%, and the NDP at 22% undersampled voters under 35 years of age and did not properly control for the very small sample: http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/05/pcs-gain-as-campaign-begins.html

Their secret seat weighting formula is also suspect and consistantly disadvantages the NDP.

Forum is wothout a doubt the worst pollster in Canada, and given recent polling, that's saying quite a lot.

 

From the link above,

Eric Grenier wrote:
As a rule of thumb going forward, I'd suggest increasing the NDP's seat share that is estimated by Forum by 50%, all at the expense of the Liberals.

So, rather than PCs 43, Libs 43, and NDP 21, I think we get:  PCs 43, Libs 33, NDP 31.  Unless I've misread what he said.

josh

No, he was talking about the Forum poll, not his projection:

"the Liberals were projected to win 49 seats, with just 45 going to the PCs and 13 to the NDP."

So, Liberals would drop to 42-43, while the NDP would go up to 19-20.

mark_alfred

Thanks josh.  That makes sense. 

NorthReport

The CBC are out again with their rigged compass poll which shows if you have NDP sympathies you should vote Liberal. Laughing

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-votes-2014/vote-compass-fo...

robbie_dee

New Oracle poll reported here: Conservative: 42%, Liberal: 31% NDP: 25%.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Ontario+election+roundup/9819903/story.html

Noting on the Oracle website though.

robbie_dee

42% for the Conservatives would probably mean a majority, though, despite the low Hudak popularity.

NorthReport

Don't panic Liberal supporters, as the CBC and the Toronto Star, where the Oracle poll of course is nowhere to be found, will come rusing to poor Wynne's rescue, even if something has to be "manufactured", as after all, they are old pros at this.  Laughing

Change is definitely in the air!

NorthReport

Thanks robbie_dee.

It looks like an accurate assessment right now.

As was discussed initial campaign polling was hooped, probably with the help of some Liberal connections if you scratch below  the surface. 

This poll looks quite promising for the NDP and is confirming my hunch that the Liberals will end up in third place (particularly once all the Liberal scandals get a full public airing during the upcoming campaign).

With the NDP now within 6% of the Liberals, and PCs seriously pulling away from the Liberals, now showing  an astonishing 11% lead, the only realistic opportunity to stop Hudak is with the most popular leader - the NDP's Andrea Horwath. 

Leader's popularity:

Horwath - 42%

Wynne - 40%

Hudak - 28%

Change is in the air! Smile

Quote:
Poll season begins

Elections mean one thing: obsessive tracking of opinion polls. And the latest one doesn’t look good for the Liberals. A survey by Oracle shows the Progressive Conservatives have surged ahead to 42 per cent, with the Liberals trailing at 31 per cent, while the NDP have 25 per cent support. However, the popularity of the leaders isn’t mirrored in those numbers. PC leader Tim Hudak’s popularity is down in the 28 per cent area, compared to 42 per cent for NDP leader Andrea Horwath and 40 per cent for Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne. Oracle surveyed 1,000 people by phone between May 2 and 5, after the NDP said they wouldn’t support the budget.

---------------------

12,480

 

NorthReport

The nite is young, and as has already been mentioned, few voters will pay attention until the debates.

What do those opposed to Hudak now have to lose now by having 5 leader debates as Andrea has suggested?

Zero is what I can see.

If the PCs are actually heading for a majority as concerns robbie-dee, there are only so many ways to stop them.

Contrasting Hudak with the other 2 leaders five times for an extended period of time might be the only effective way to do it.

If Liberal supporters are serious about trying to stop Hudak, as opposed to just bashing the NDP, encourage Wynne to support Andrea's idea of 5 debates.

robbie_dee wrote:

42% for the Conservatives would probably mean a majority, though, despite the low Hudak popularity.

toaster

ONDP ahead in Sudbury and within striking distance in Sault Ste Marie.

 

http://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/ontario-election-2014/blog/polls-polls...

NorthReport

Thanks toaster,

Weren't the Liberal crowing over how unorganized the NDP was a very short time ago? 

And so now it really begins. 

---------------

12,560

adma

robbie_dee wrote:

New Oracle poll reported here: Conservative: 42%, Liberal: 31% NDP: 25%.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Ontario+election+roundup/9819903/story.html

Noting on the Oracle website though.

 

What doen't quite make sense (at least in a poll like this) is that Green/Other would be but 2%...

NorthReport

NDP gains 5% on the Liberals as the NDP begin to move within striking distance of the Liberals now only seperated by 6% between them

Ontario - Oracle Polling

Party / Apr / May / Change

PCs / 34% / 42% / Up 8%

Libs / 35% / 31% / Down 4%

NDP / 24% / 25% / Up 1%

-----

12,680


 

 

Rokossovsky

Every good strategic voting drive requires a "Tory majority" poll to drive votes.

Rokossovsky

I am curious as to why you almost always fail to quote the source article, seemlessly joining the quoted material with your own editorializing.

I am begining to think that your ignorance of copyright protocol is deliberate.

Moreover, the NDP did not "vote" to bring down anything. Wynne pulled the plug on herself, apparently because she didn't think it would be to her advantage to have her wonderful budget debated in the legislature.

It's hard to take a political analysis by someone who can not distinguish between a premier disolving parliament, and a vote of non-confidence seriously, but then of course misleading voters into thinking that Horwath "voted to bring down the government", has repeatedly appeared in Liberal campaign material.

terrytowel

Rokossovsky wrote:

I am curious as to why you almost always fail to quote the source article, seemlessly joining the quoted material with your own editorializing.

I am begining to think that your ignorance of copyright protocol is deliberate.

Moreover, the NDP did not "vote" to bring down anything. Wynne pulled the plug on herself, apparently because she didn't think it would be to her advantage to have her wonderful budget debated in the legislature.

It's hard to take a political analysis by someone who can not distinguish between a premier disolving parliament, and a vote of non-confidence seriously, but then of course misleading voters into thinking that Horwath "voted to bring down the government", has repeatedly appeared in Liberal campaign material.

It is a direct copy and paste from Adam Radwanski article in today's Globe and Mail. All I did was copy and paste, no writing by me.

So if you have an issue with Radwanski vis a vis voting down vs pulling the plug, direct it to the editors of the Globe for their editorializing.

Rokossovsky

terrytowel wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

I am curious as to why you almost always fail to quote the source article, seemlessly joining the quoted material with your own editorializing.

I am begining to think that your ignorance of copyright protocol is deliberate.

Moreover, the NDP did not "vote" to bring down anything. Wynne pulled the plug on herself, apparently because she didn't think it would be to her advantage to have her wonderful budget debated in the legislature.

It's hard to take a political analysis by someone who can not distinguish between a premier disolving parliament, and a vote of non-confidence seriously, but then of course misleading voters into thinking that Horwath "voted to bring down the government", has repeatedly appeared in Liberal campaign material.

It is a direct copy and paste from Adam Radwanski article in today's Globe and Mail. All I did was copy and paste, no writing by me.

So if you have an issue with Radwanski vis a vis voting down vs pulling the plug, direct it to the editors of the Globe for their editorializing.

No it isn't. It is an edited copy and paste, with the parts you wanted included and the parts you didn't want, excluded. It is highly confusing, and hard to know where you start, and he begins, and vis-versa.

terrytowel

New survey shows signs of the trouble for the NDP

Horse-race polls have been a bit all over the map of late, in terms of how the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives are faring relative to each other. But one thing they’ve consistently shown is that the NDP – which at points over the past couple of years has seemed poised to legitimately compete for power – is trailing significantly behind the other two parties.

It’s still very early in the campaign, and Andrea Horwath’s party has plenty of time to surge. But a new survey, conducted by Innovative Research Group after the election was announced a week ago, includes some data that suggests the New Democrats might be in a tough spot.

There are parts of Ontario, notably its southwest, where the NDP is competing head-on with the Progressive Conservatives. But for the most part they’re fighting the Liberals for left-of-centre votes. And this survey, at least, suggests Ms. Horwath’s decision to bring down Kathleen Wynne’s government over its decidedly left-leaning budget has done some damage.

Innovative Research’s Greg Lyle divides his online panel of 1,000 Ontarians into what he calls “value clusters,” based on their ideology. And one of the questions he put to those groups was whether they “support or oppose the decision of the Opposition parties to force a provincial election.” Here’s what he found:

As you can see, conservatives are happy the government fell, and several other groups are fine with it. But one that’s really not is “core left” – a cluster that Mr. Lyle believes normally votes primarily for the NDP, and accounts for about 20 per cent of the electorate.

Why would that be? Well, here’s what the clusters thought of Ms. Wynne’s budget:

 So, that would suggest that the core left really liked the budget. Oh, and “new labour” and “left Liberals” – smaller, more moderately left-of-centre groups Ms. Horwath would also like to get on board – were very keen on it as well. The only cluster available to the NDP that didn’t like the budget, and again it’s a pretty small one, was “penny-pinching moderates.”

What impact have those sentiments had on general perceptions of Ms. Horwath? It’s hard to know for sure, but have a look at how her “favourability” score – which measures whether each group has a positive or negative impression of her – changed between Innovative Research’s last survey (in March) and the one this week:

Getting away from “value clusters” and returning to a more traditional classification, there’s one more problem for Ms. Horwath. Liberal supporters – the people she was hoping to draw away from Ms. Wynne’s scandal-plagued party – seems to be really mad at her. Here’s a look at how that favourability number has changed among supporters of each party since March:

What does this all mean?

To review, a lot of people who usually vote for the NDP are unhappy it voted against the budget and brought down the government. And most people who currently identify her as Liberals now dislike her for that decision.

Ms. Horwath does seem to have pleased some of the people trying to choose between the NDP and the Tories. That should help her party’s chances in a few of those southwestern ridings, where those two parties are going head-to-head and the Liberals are out of contention, but it’s not going to do her much good anywhere else.

A big caveat here is that many Ontarians haven’t been paying much attention to this campaign yet, so it’s debatable how hardened or widespread these perspectives are.

It wouldn’t be completely shocking, in other words, if the NDP overcame the situation it currently seems to be in. But it seems fair to say, at the least, that the way this election came to pass set back its prospects, and made its path a lot more challenging.

http://politics.theglobeandmail.com/2014/05/09/new-survey-shows-signs-of...

(reposted to post entire article unedited)

Rokossovsky

No. You are supposed to put quotation marks around parts that are quoted, and or use the quotation function in the message board. Otherwise, we don't know who is talking you, or the guy who things that a press conference speech by the leader of the third party in the legislature is a vote of non-confidence.

terrytowel

Oh so we are suppose to copy and paste the whole article? I was 'ignorance of copyright protocol'. Because of space issues, I thought it was okay to post a 'shortened' version. The author's point was the NDP was in trouble, and I just highlighted those parts in the post. My mistake. From now one I'll copy and paste the entire article unedited. I made the changes in the original response. My mistake, and sorry for the original post. Unedited from now on.

 

terrytowel

Rokossovsky wrote:

No. You are supposed to put quotation marks around parts that are quoted, and or use the quotation function in the message board. Otherwise, we don't know who is talking you, or the guy who things that a press conference speech by the leader of the third party in the legislature is a vote of non-confidence.

OK got it. The OP (original post) is ENTIRELY from the Globe and Mail, totally unedited. I'll follow those rules from now on. Sorry my mistake.

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Don't panic Liberal supporters, as the CBC and the Toronto Star, where the Oracle poll of course is nowhere to be found, will come rusing to poor Wynne's rescue, even if something has to be "manufactured", as after all, they are old pros at this.  Laughing

Change is definitely in the air!

No surprise that some on here are practically dancing at the thought of a Hudak majority. Even if it's from a rather low profile pollster.

Rokossovsky

josh wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

Don't panic Liberal supporters, as the CBC and the Toronto Star, where the Oracle poll of course is nowhere to be found, will come rusing to poor Wynne's rescue, even if something has to be "manufactured", as after all, they are old pros at this.  Laughing

Change is definitely in the air!

No surprise that some on here are practically dancing at the thought of a Hudak majority. Even if it's from a rather low profile pollster.

I am wondering if you had considered the net effect of mass privatization of public sector jobs and assets in comparison to the net effect of introducing so called "right to work" legislation, not that you ever seem to consider the actual nuts and bolts of policy or its impact on the people you profess to care about.

Outsourcing contracts to nebulous fly-by-night international contractors using temorary labour suppliers is probably just as good a way of undermining labour rights and wages, as introducing so called "right to work" legislation. But your type doesn't really care about that as long as no one uses language that you find offensive.

What's that song "unionist" likes so much? Oh yeah. Love me I am a Liberal".

 

Rokossovsky

And if all that heavy lifting around discussing labour rights, and how they take effect in law, and Liberal plans to sell Ontario Hydro, sell the LCBO and outsource transit construction contracts is too much for you, maybe just answer my very simple question, which is what makes you think that having an election now, as opposed to having an election a year from now, will in any way transform Tim Hudak's chances?

If he gets in a year from now, all the frosting on the Liberal privatization agenda is going to blown away like so much frosting on a cake, or a shit sandwich, which is what the Liberal budget really is anyway.

It is just a cheap attempt to buy some votes by selling the inherited public wealth of the government of Ontario, and cling to power for a few more years.

MegB

Terrytowel, please use the quote function, cut and paste the relevant part of the article (not the entire article) and provide a link to the source so that people can read it in detail.

MegB

Oh, and Rokossovsky, I'm getting complaints about you baiting and insulting participants. Please be more respectful.

terrytowel

Rebecca West wrote:

 

Terrytowel, please use the quote function, cut and paste the relevant part of the article (not the entire article) and provide a link to the source so that people can read it in detail.

OK Rebecca thanks for making it clear. Will do the next time.

mark_alfred

Ipsos-Reid poll:  Tories (37%) Maintain Lead over Liberals (31%), NDP (28%).  More details at this link, including breakdown of different regions, etc.  Of note is that a large majority want change from the current government and this has grown. 

Rokossovsky

Rebecca West wrote:

Oh, and Rokossovsky, I'm getting complaints about you baiting and insulting participants. Please be more respectful.

Did they cite any examples? It would be nice to know what specifically it is that I did that upset someone, if its going to be aired publicly.

But what is good for the goose is good for the gander no? So, here, I was accused of being a McCarthyte:

Unionist wrote:
Rokossovsky is also very good at making clear and explicit ONDP promises and positions that the ONDP itself is vague and ambiguous about (corporate taxes, nationalization vs. just not more privatization of Hydro, etc.). This shows clear thinking and certainly no hint of a spirit of McCarthyism aimed at uncovering covert Liberal shills.

Having "no principles". Ok, not exactly said explicitly, but a clearly implied ad hominem, here:

unionist wrote:
Here's a novel idea: If a party's policies go against your fundamental principles, then criticize them, try to change them, make sure they never achieve power... But that presupposes something. That you have some fundamental principles.

Had my sanity questioned, here.

Josh wrote:
Have to laugh at the party hacks on here attacking Salutin as a "wacko" and a Liberal when he's far more sane and left than either of them.

Oh, and a "party hack" is also ad hominem, and funny because I ain't in the NDP... but that is another story. True I did say Salutin was "nutso", but then he's a public figure, and not engaged here, at least that I know.

And then also accused of lying, here by onlinediscountanvils.  This point which I rebutted here: I made a deduction based on his statements, which I quoted. In this case the accussation of how I "lied" was not demonstrated when I asked.

So, it kind of seems to me that it works like this. Pick a fight with someone, insult them, call them an "insane party hack, with no principles, who lies", then report them to the moderator, if they get in your face.

Hard to know where this stuff begins and ends, but really, it seems strange to be singled out for censure.

As for anonymous reports to the moderators about my behaviour, I have also received messages of support from several people, one who in fact said they don't post here anymore because of the trolling of some indiviuals. In the main I have stuck with the issues of policy on topic, despite a lot of peronalized heckling, which pretty much seems par for the course on this site.

I am not one to run to the moderators if people are going to lay in with personal attacks but if it is going to become a public issue, then I would appreciate it if examples of my unjustifiable negative behaviour were used, since obviously as above, it is hardly a one way street.

Moreover, I don't think this warning is warranted given the tenor of the discussion, especially when "straight forward" statements are pretty much the norm. I don't mind toning it down, but I don't think I should be singled out.

And while I am at it. Is this ok?

Unionist wrote:

Horwath and Wynne are liberals. Wynne admits it. There's a substantive difference.

But there is certainly one other substantive difference between Horwath and Wynne. Wynne is lesbian, and out. She doesn't do high-heel ads. If it came down to it, I'd vote for Wynne for that reason alone.

Reducing the discussion of policy differences between Horwath and Wynne to their sexuality, and clothing they choose to wear seems pretty dismissive of both, really. Curious about that.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Like the misleading EKOS & Forum polls near the beginning of the election showing the Liberals doing well, the article itself is dated as the latest polling is not included.

They say momentum is everything in politics, and Liberals not only don't have it, they don't even know how to spell the word. 

Ipsos is now showing the NDP within 3 % of the Liberals

C - 35%

L - 31, Down

N - 28, Up

What is interesting though are some of the comments following the article showing the pollster's political connections.

EKOS for example has Liberal connections. 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/05/ontario-polls-continue-to-confu...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Tks m-a,

Tme for change theme is idefinitely in the Ontario air

PCs- 37% - NC

Libs- 31%, Down 1%

NDP - 28%, Up 1%

-----------------------------

Hudak - 34%, Up 2%

Horwath - 28%, Up 1%

Wynne - 28%, Down 3%

Quote:
The Building Tide of Change…

The data reveal a growing desire for change in Ontario. Nearly three quarters (72%, up 4 points) of Ontarians believe that it is ‘time for another party to take over’, while just 28% think that ‘the Wynne government has done a good job and deserves re-election’, down 4 points.

Further, just 36% of Ontarians believe ‘Ontario is currently on the right track’, down 6 points), while two in three (64%) believe it is ‘headed in the wrong direction’, up 6 points.

 

 

http://rabble.ca/babble/ontario/ontario-polling-thread-april-18-2012?pag...

NorthReport

Gosh josh, in that case maybe you prefer the Ipsos poll out today showing the NDP within 3% of the Liberals and closing the gap. 

josh wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

Don't panic Liberal supporters, as the CBC and the Toronto Star, where the Oracle poll of course is nowhere to be found, will come rusing to poor Wynne's rescue, even if something has to be "manufactured", as after all, they are old pros at this.  Laughing

Change is definitely in the air!

No surprise that some on here are practically dancing at the thought of a Hudak majority. Even if it's from a rather low profile pollster.

MegB

Rokossovsky wrote:

Rebecca West wrote:

Oh, and Rokossovsky, I'm getting complaints about you baiting and insulting participants. Please be more respectful.

Did they cite any examples? It would be nice to know what specifically it is that I did that upset someone, if its going to be aired publicly.

But what is good for the goose is good for the gander no? So, here, I was accused of being a McCarthyte:

Unionist wrote:
Rokossovsky is also very good at making clear and explicit ONDP promises and positions that the ONDP itself is vague and ambiguous about (corporate taxes, nationalization vs. just not more privatization of Hydro, etc.). This shows clear thinking and certainly no hint of a spirit of McCarthyism aimed at uncovering covert Liberal shills.

Having "no principles". Ok, not exactly said explicitly, but a clearly implied ad hominem, here:

unionist wrote:
Here's a novel idea: If a party's policies go against your fundamental principles, then criticize them, try to change them, make sure they never achieve power... But that presupposes something. That you have some fundamental principles.

Had my sanity questioned, here.

Josh wrote:
Have to laugh at the party hacks on here attacking Salutin as a "wacko" and a Liberal when he's far more sane and left than either of them.

Oh, and a "party hack" is also ad hominem, and funny because I ain't in the NDP... but that is another story. True I did say Salutin was "nutso", but then he's a public figure, and not engaged here, at least that I know.

And then also accused of lying, here by onlinediscountanvils.  This point which I rebutted here: I made a deduction based on his statements, which I quoted. In this case the accussation of how I "lied" was not demonstrated when I asked.

So, it kind of seems to me that it works like this. Pick a fight with someone, insult them, call them an "insane party hack, with no principles, who lies", then report them to the moderator, if they get in your face.

Hard to know where this stuff begins and ends, but really, it seems strange to be singled out for censure.

As for anonymous reports to the moderators about my behaviour, I have also received messages of support from several people, one who in fact said they don't post here anymore because of the trolling of some indiviuals. In the main I have stuck with the issues of policy on topic, despite a lot of peronalized heckling, which pretty much seems par for the course on this site.

I am not one to run to the moderators if people are going to lay in with personal attacks but if it is going to become a public issue, then I would appreciate it if examples of my unjustifiable negative behaviour were used, since obviously as above, it is hardly a one way street.

Moreover, I don't think this warning is warranted given the tenor of the discussion, especially when "straight forward" statements are pretty much the norm. I don't mind toning it down, but I don't think I should be singled out.

And while I am at it. Is this ok?

Unionist wrote:

Horwath and Wynne are liberals. Wynne admits it. There's a substantive difference.

But there is certainly one other substantive difference between Horwath and Wynne. Wynne is lesbian, and out. She doesn't do high-heel ads. If it came down to it, I'd vote for Wynne for that reason alone.

Reducing the discussion of policy differences between Horwath and Wynne to their sexuality, and clothing they choose to wear seems pretty dismissive of both, really. Curious about that.

You are being called on your disrespectful behavior. This is not about the behavior of others and your playing victim is, frankly, embarrassing. Numerous examples have been cited. Please stop wasting my limited moderating time.

NorthReport

The stakes are large and there is some very misleading information resulting from the current Ontario polling including aggregate pollsters as garbage in = garbage out. Nate Silver formerly at the NYTimes and  currently at www.fivethirtyeight.com would have a blast dismantling some of the nonsensical polling here. 

Interesting that EKOS & Forum were first out of the gate when the Legislature was being dissolved. EKOS one day before, and Forum one day after, which is additional confirmation that the Liberal's plan was to pull the plug all along. I'm surprised Liberals don't win all the Academy Awards for their acting abilities.  Wink

My hunch is Ipsos Reid is probably quite close to representing where the Ontario voters  are presently at. 

Date / Pollster / PCs / Libs / NDP / Connections

2011 / GE / 35% / 38% / 23%

May 8 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Neutral  / Bricker

May 6 / Innov / 33% / 39% / 20% / Liberal  / Lyle / Disregard

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 31% / 25% /  

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 33% / 22% /   / Bozinoff / 

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Neutral / Bricker 

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

 

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13,170

 

 

 

Wilf Day

mark_alfred wrote:

Ipsos-Reid poll:  Tories (37%) Maintain Lead over Liberals (31%), NDP (28%).  More details at this link, including breakdown of different regions, etc.  Of note is that a large majority want change from the current government and this has grown. 

This is huge:

Quote:
In Southwest Ontario, the NDP (38%) and PCs (36%) are ahead of the Liberals (22%) and other parties (4%).

In the North, the NDP (45%) are well ahead of the PCs (27%), Liberals (20%), and other parties (8%).

These are big areas. Those regions pull the provincial support up to 28%, although it is 23% in the 416, 23% in the 905 GTA, 26% in Central Ontario, and 16% in Eastern Ontario.

As usual, that 28% is 31% of women, 25% of men.

NorthReport

A good website to access polling information, however it appears there is an over abundance of polls with Liberal affiliations, as at least 50%, and perhaps even more of the pollsters are connected to the Liberals, which probably misrepresents what's actually happening on the ground. I'll let you decide what kind of impact this has on aggregate statistics particularly when the aggregators refuse to divulge what polls they use for their stats. Remeber political polling is very much part and parcel of the whole messy and often times corrupt and deceiving game of politics. When someone who is connected to right-of-centre media and politics, suggests they are going to adjust for inconsistencies of a particular pollster, two questions come quickly to mind: One: If a track record of rogue polling, trying to be polite here, has been exhibited, why would that pollster be used in any capacity, and Two: Is this appearance of trying to be fair, actually a smokescreen to avoid discussing larger problem with the mix.

Often the most pertinent information is in the aggregators outsiders comment section. 

Liberals appear to be so desperate to skew the polls in their favour, that Innovative is showing 2 separate polls on the same day.  Laughing 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_election_2014#Opinion_polls

 

 

 

NorthReport

Thanks Wilf.

Another pollster missing from the previous mix, with a good track record is Environics. Although not current, I have added of what appears to be their most recent eye opener Ontario polls.

Does anyone know if, and when, Environics will be releasing a poll before Jun 12th, the date of the election.

The stakes are large and there is some very misleading information resulting from the current Ontario polling including aggregate pollsters as garbage in = garbage out. Nate Silver formerly at the NYTimes and  currently at www.fivethirtyeight.com would have a blast dismantling some of the nonsensical polling here. 

Interesting that EKOS & Forum were first out of the gate when the Legislature was being dissolved. EKOS one day before, and Forum one day after, which is additional confirmation that the Liberal's plan was to pull the plug all along. I'm surprised Liberals don't win all the Academy Awards for their acting abilities.  Wink

My hunch is Ipsos Reid is probably quite close to representing where the Ontario voters  are presently at. 

Date / Pollster / PCs / Libs / NDP / Connections

2011 / GE / 35% / 38% / 23%

May 8 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Neutral  / Bricker

May 6 / Innov / 33% / 39% / 20% / Liberal  / Lyle / Disregard

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 31% / 25% /  

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 33% / 22% /   / Bozinoff / 

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Neutral / Bricker 

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

----------------------------

Jun '12 / Environics / 37% / 25% / 28%

Apr '12 / Environics / 37% / 27% / 30%

 

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13,320

NorthReport

Although dated, here are the complete results of Environics last political poll for Ontario. 

http://www.environics.ca/uploads/File/Environics-Research---Ontario-Vote...

NorthReport

Wilf,

Most pollsters with basic polling abilities can usually poll reasonably close if releasing polls on the day before the vote.

But for anyone who doubts Ipsos Reid's polling abilities, take a look at their accuracy in last federal election on May 2, 2011, and the Ipsos Reid's poll, 4 days before the vote on April 28, 2011:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_ele...

 

 

Wilf Day wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:

Ipsos-Reid poll:  Tories (37%) Maintain Lead over Liberals (31%), NDP (28%).  More details at this link, including breakdown of different regions, etc.  Of note is that a large majority want change from the current government and this has grown. 

This is huge:

Quote:
In Southwest Ontario, the NDP (38%) and PCs (36%) are ahead of the Liberals (22%) and other parties (4%).

In the North, the NDP (45%) are well ahead of the PCs (27%), Liberals (20%), and other parties (8%).

These are big areas. Those regions pull the provincial support up to 28%, although it is 23% in the 416, 23% in the 905 GTA, 26% in Central Ontario, and 16% in Eastern Ontario.

As usual, that 28% is 31% of women, 25% of men.

-------------

13,350

Brachina

Rebecca West wrote:
Rokossovsky wrote:

Rebecca West wrote:

Oh, and Rokossovsky, I'm getting complaints about you baiting and insulting participants. Please be more respectful.

Did they cite any examples? It would be nice to know what specifically it is that I did that upset someone, if its going to be aired publicly.

But what is good for the goose is good for the gander no? So, here, I was accused of being a McCarthyte:

Unionist wrote:
Rokossovsky is also very good at making clear and explicit ONDP promises and positions that the ONDP itself is vague and ambiguous about (corporate taxes, nationalization vs. just not more privatization of Hydro, etc.). This shows clear thinking and certainly no hint of a spirit of McCarthyism aimed at uncovering covert Liberal shills.

Having "no principles". Ok, not exactly said explicitly, but a clearly implied ad hominem, here:

unionist wrote:
Here's a novel idea: If a party's policies go against your fundamental principles, then criticize them, try to change them, make sure they never achieve power... But that presupposes something. That you have some fundamental principles.

Had my sanity questioned, here.

Josh wrote:
Have to laugh at the party hacks on here attacking Salutin as a "wacko" and a Liberal when he's far more sane and left than either of them.

Oh, and a "party hack" is also ad hominem, and funny because I ain't in the NDP... but that is another story. True I did say Salutin was "nutso", but then he's a public figure, and not engaged here, at least that I know.

And then also accused of lying, here by onlinediscountanvils.  This point which I rebutted here: I made a deduction based on his statements, which I quoted. In this case the accussation of how I "lied" was not demonstrated when I asked.

So, it kind of seems to me that it works like this. Pick a fight with someone, insult them, call them an "insane party hack, with no principles, who lies", then report them to the moderator, if they get in your face.

Hard to know where this stuff begins and ends, but really, it seems strange to be singled out for censure.

As for anonymous reports to the moderators about my behaviour, I have also received messages of support from several people, one who in fact said they don't post here anymore because of the trolling of some indiviuals. In the main I have stuck with the issues of policy on topic, despite a lot of peronalized heckling, which pretty much seems par for the course on this site.

I am not one to run to the moderators if people are going to lay in with personal attacks but if it is going to become a public issue, then I would appreciate it if examples of my unjustifiable negative behaviour were used, since obviously as above, it is hardly a one way street.

Moreover, I don't think this warning is warranted given the tenor of the discussion, especially when "straight forward" statements are pretty much the norm. I don't mind toning it down, but I don't think I should be singled out.

And while I am at it. Is this ok?

Unionist wrote:

Horwath and Wynne are liberals. Wynne admits it. There's a substantive difference.

But there is certainly one other substantive difference between Horwath and Wynne. Wynne is lesbian, and out. She doesn't do high-heel ads. If it came down to it, I'd vote for Wynne for that reason alone.

Reducing the discussion of policy differences between Horwath and Wynne to their sexuality, and clothing they choose to wear seems pretty dismissive of both, really. Curious about that.

 

You are being called on your disrespectful behavior. This is not about the behavior of others and your playing victim is, frankly, embarrassing. Numerous examples have been cited. Please stop wasting my limited moderating time.

 

 This seems like a double standard.

NorthReport

Ok, enough with the he said, she said.

We are all trying to do what we think is best, so let's give our mods a break, and stick to the issues involved in the election, instead of ragging on the personalities here.

Can we all at least commit to making an attempt?

Life is short - let's enjoy it as much as possible, eh!

All right now, back to regular programming. Laughing

Every election it seems, the mainstream media come out and say this is the closest election we have every had, or something to that effect. That's hogwash, but the reason they do that is so they can sell more ads.    

nicky

Sid Ryan has tweeted about an EKOS poll that has the NDP ahead in Oshawa

NDP poised to win Oshawa according to EKOS poll taken this past weekend. NDP 29 Libs. 23 PC. 20 #onpoli #oflabour #ondp #

This follows two riding level polls by Oracle which have the NDP gaining Sudbury and coming close in the Sault.

A few months ago I posted some thoughts on the by-election trends. Generally the Cons were treading water and the NDP gaining considerably from the Liberals in those seaTs in which it was competitive. In seats where the NDP was out of the running the liberal vote held up relatively well against the Cons.

I wonder if this pattern will repeat in the general election. If so it would be bad news for the Cons.

Does anyone have a link to the Oshawa poll? I can't find one outside Twitter

NorthReport

Intriguing that 308, by now has not even mentioned the Ipsos Reid polls showing the NDP and the Liberals neck and neck. I suppose we can not let that slip out, can we! 308 is  probably waiting for a Liberal pollster to miraculously appear and set the record straight. Laughing 

NorthReport wrote:

Thanks Wilf.

Another pollster missing from the previous mix, with a good track record is Environics. Although not current, I have added of what appears to be their most recent eye opener Ontario polls.

Does anyone know if, and when, Environics will be releasing a poll before Jun 12th, the date of the election.

The stakes are large and there is some very misleading information resulting from the current Ontario polling including aggregate pollsters as garbage in = garbage out. Nate Silver formerly at the NYTimes and  currently at www.fivethirtyeight.com would have a blast dismantling some of the nonsensical polling here. 

Interesting that EKOS & Forum were first out of the gate when the Legislature was being dissolved. EKOS one day before, and Forum one day after, which is additional confirmation that the Liberal's plan was to pull the plug all along. I'm surprised Liberals don't win all the Academy Awards for their acting abilities.  Wink

My hunch is Ipsos Reid is probably quite close to representing where the Ontario voters  are presently at. 

Date / Pollster / PCs / Libs / NDP / Connections

2011 / GE / 35% / 38% / 23%

May 8 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Neutral  / Bricker

May 6 / Innov / 33% / 39% / 20% / Liberal  / Lyle / Disregard

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 31% / 25% /  

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 33% / 22% /   / Bozinoff / 

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Neutral / Bricker 

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

----------------------------

Jun '12 / Environics / 37% / 25% / 28%

Apr '12 / Environics / 37% / 27% / 30%

 

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