Ontario polling thread (April 18, 2012)

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NorthReport

oops

MegB

Brachina wrote:

Rebecca West wrote:
Rokossovsky wrote:

Rebecca West wrote:

Oh, and Rokossovsky, I'm getting complaints about you baiting and insulting participants. Please be more respectful.

Did they cite any examples? It would be nice to know what specifically it is that I did that upset someone, if its going to be aired publicly.

But what is good for the goose is good for the gander no? So, here, I was accused of being a McCarthyte:

Unionist wrote:
Rokossovsky is also very good at making clear and explicit ONDP promises and positions that the ONDP itself is vague and ambiguous about (corporate taxes, nationalization vs. just not more privatization of Hydro, etc.). This shows clear thinking and certainly no hint of a spirit of McCarthyism aimed at uncovering covert Liberal shills.

Having "no principles". Ok, not exactly said explicitly, but a clearly implied ad hominem, here:

unionist wrote:
Here's a novel idea: If a party's policies go against your fundamental principles, then criticize them, try to change them, make sure they never achieve power... But that presupposes something. That you have some fundamental principles.

Had my sanity questioned, here.

Josh wrote:
Have to laugh at the party hacks on here attacking Salutin as a "wacko" and a Liberal when he's far more sane and left than either of them.

Oh, and a "party hack" is also ad hominem, and funny because I ain't in the NDP... but that is another story. True I did say Salutin was "nutso", but then he's a public figure, and not engaged here, at least that I know.

And then also accused of lying, here by onlinediscountanvils.  This point which I rebutted here: I made a deduction based on his statements, which I quoted. In this case the accussation of how I "lied" was not demonstrated when I asked.

So, it kind of seems to me that it works like this. Pick a fight with someone, insult them, call them an "insane party hack, with no principles, who lies", then report them to the moderator, if they get in your face.

Hard to know where this stuff begins and ends, but really, it seems strange to be singled out for censure.

As for anonymous reports to the moderators about my behaviour, I have also received messages of support from several people, one who in fact said they don't post here anymore because of the trolling of some indiviuals. In the main I have stuck with the issues of policy on topic, despite a lot of peronalized heckling, which pretty much seems par for the course on this site.

I am not one to run to the moderators if people are going to lay in with personal attacks but if it is going to become a public issue, then I would appreciate it if examples of my unjustifiable negative behaviour were used, since obviously as above, it is hardly a one way street.

Moreover, I don't think this warning is warranted given the tenor of the discussion, especially when "straight forward" statements are pretty much the norm. I don't mind toning it down, but I don't think I should be singled out.

And while I am at it. Is this ok?

Unionist wrote:

Horwath and Wynne are liberals. Wynne admits it. There's a substantive difference.

But there is certainly one other substantive difference between Horwath and Wynne. Wynne is lesbian, and out. She doesn't do high-heel ads. If it came down to it, I'd vote for Wynne for that reason alone.

Reducing the discussion of policy differences between Horwath and Wynne to their sexuality, and clothing they choose to wear seems pretty dismissive of both, really. Curious about that.

 

You are being called on your disrespectful behavior. This is not about the behavior of others and your playing victim is, frankly, embarrassing. Numerous examples have been cited. Please stop wasting my limited moderating time.

 

 This seems like a double standard.

You have a point, but there are not enough hours in the day to respond to each and every instance of snark. People seem to think that certain babblers get a free pass, but they forget the epic battles and suspensions CF and I have had to dole out. We mods remember because they are such difficult decisions.

NorthReport

I'm skeptical about EKOS plling.

Maybe not as bad as Innovative but they are up there on the polling BS meter.

Nothing would surprise me such as making the the NDP look stronger than they actually are at the beginning, and then when it gets close to crunch time, more accurate polling comes out showing the NDP falling off a bit, and then Wynne saying the Liberals are the ones with momentum just before voting day. We know who is running the Liberal campaign and they will stop at nothing to try and stop what appears to be be major Liberal disconnect with the voters.

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Wow, there is quite an onslot against Andrea in the mainstream press. I guess the multi-nationals are quite angry that their political fronts, the Liberals anfd the PCs, may not have the government just for themselves, and that they might have to share it with the people this time around.

When's the "Bob Rae" mess going to rear its ugly head? The Liberals I'm sure don't want to talk about him, nor does the NDP. I guess it's up to Hudak then. Laughing

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adma

nicky wrote:
Sid Ryan has tweeted about an EKOS poll that has the NDP ahead in Oshawa NDP poised to win Oshawa according to EKOS poll taken this past weekend. NDP 29 Libs. 23 PC. 20 #onpoli #oflabour #ondp #

23% second place for the Grits in Oshawa just doesn't ring true.  Just sayin'.

Rokossovsky

Oshawa, Liberals, actual poll count:

2011 17%
2007 21%
2003 24%

Rokossovsky

Why? this is normal.

Oshawa is old NDP turf. It was Ed Broadbent's riding for years and it has flipped PC and NDP historicall, and the NDP usually run second, if not first. The Liberals have only won Oshawa federally. briefly during Chretien era.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oshawa_%28provincial_electoral_district%29

Rokossovsky

The NDP will take Oshawa this time out, now that Syd isn't carrying the banner.

NorthReport

What are you getting at adma?

Oshawa

Party / 2011 GE / EKOS Poll today / Change

NDP - 36% / 29% / Down 7%

Libs - 17% / 23% / Up 6%

PCs  / 42% / 20% / Down 22%

By-the-way, has Hudak got the Tim Horton vote sewed up?  Wink

adma wrote:

nicky wrote:
Sid Ryan has tweeted about an EKOS poll that has the NDP ahead in Oshawa NDP poised to win Oshawa according to EKOS poll taken this past weekend. NDP 29 Libs. 23 PC. 20 #onpoli #oflabour #ondp #

23% second place for the Grits in Oshawa just doesn't ring true.  Just sayin'.

NorthReport

If that poll is indicative of what is happening around the province maybe this Hudak threat is nowhere near what the Liberals want you to believe, as the Liberals like nothing more than trying to panic voters that Armageddon is coming of you don't vote for them.

Maybe, just maybe, it is the reverse. Wink

Sineed

I apologize if this one has already been posted, but it wasn't clear that it had been.

New Poll Gives Tories a Six-Point Lead Over Grits

Quote:

PC Leader Tim Hudak has taken an early lead in the race to become premier, according to a new CP24/CTV Ipsos Reid poll.

The online poll of 821 Ontarians has found that Hudak’s Progessive Conservative party has the support of 37 per cent of respondents compared to 31 per cent for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal party, 28 per cent for Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats and four per cent for Mike Schreiner’s Green Party.

This poll was conducted between May 6-8, so it's prior to Hudak's announcement about killing 100,000 jobs. I'm still hopeful that Hudak nuked his chances with that one, but how likely is it that soft Tory support will veer over to the NDP?

Quote:
The poll also gives the PC party an advantage in terms of the degree of certainty its supporters posses with 52 per cent of those who intend to vote Tory saying they are “absolutely certain” of their intention compared with 37 per cent for the Liberals and 34 per cent for the NDP.

Read more: http://www.cp24.com/news/2014-ontario-provincial-election/new-poll-gives-tories-a-six-point-lead-over-grits-1.1814985#ixzz31PImx6M8

I am waiting with bated breath for next week's poll.

Rokossovsky

Hudak's job is to forward the agenda he serves. The people who back him care not if he gets elected or not, as long as he moves the agenda in the direction they likes.

By making outrageous statements like this he gives the Liberals plenty of room to operate on the right, and the backers of the PC's care not, who is cutting government services, privatizing government assets, and outsourcing labour contracts, as long as the job is getting done.

In contrast he makes the Liberals look positively progressive, but they are not. The Liberal budget, despite a few nods in the direction of social service increases, is actually only slightly to the left of the PC position.

scott16

nicky wrote:
Sid Ryan has tweeted about an EKOS poll that has the NDP ahead in Oshawa NDP poised to win Oshawa according to EKOS poll taken this past weekend. NDP 29 Libs. 23 PC. 20 #onpoli #oflabour #ondp # This follows two riding level polls by Oracle which have the NDP gaining Sudbury and coming close in the Sault. A few months ago I posted some thoughts on the by-election trends. Generally the Cons were treading water and the NDP gaining considerably from the Liberals in those seaTs in which it was competitive. In seats where the NDP was out of the running the liberal vote held up relatively well against the Cons. I wonder if this pattern will repeat in the general election. If so it would be bad news for the Cons. Does anyone have a link to the Oshawa poll? I can't find one outside Twitter

Does anyone know who is running for the NDP? On Wikipedia it says Ryan Kelly is running in Whitby-Oshawa but no name in Oshawa.

NorthReport

One of the many reasons I am skeptical about EKOS and 308 as well:

Remember this:

FRIDAY, MAY 2, 2014 Ontario NDP drops in EKOS poll hot off the wires following the release of the Ontario budget yesterday is a poll by EKOS Research that might give Andrea Horwath pause as she considers whether or not to send Ontarians to the polls this spring.

Update: And just as I hit 'post', news comes out that Andrea Horwath will not support the budget. Looks like we're off to the races. Also, an earlier version of this post said the NDP was at 22.9% in the EKOS poll - they are actually at 22.2%.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/05/ontario-ndp-drops-in-ekos-poll....

Garbage in = garbage out.

We now know that Andrea at 28% support, is within 3% of Kathleen, and closing in on the Liberals from a credible pollster.

 

mark_alfred

Seat projection by Global News (based on some recent polls -- link)

Rokossovsky

You can say that again.

NorthReport

I remember a while back checking into this institution and it is not what I would call NDP-friendly to say the least.

"Barry Kay is a professor at Wilfrid Laurier University and a part of the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy"

http://globalnews.ca/news/1314518/ontario-seat-projection-shows-modest-s...

mark_alfred

oops, multiple post.

 

mark_alfred

oops again, multiple post.

 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:
EKOS & Innovative are in the mix.
The polling BS meter just went through the roof.  Laughing

These seat projections are not woth the paper they are written on.

 

What's wrong with EKOS and Innovative?

 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:
I remember a while back checking into this institution and it is not what I would call NDP-friendly to say the least.

"Barry Kay is a professor at Wilfrid Laurier University and a part of the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy"

http://globalnews.ca/news/1314518/ontario-seat-projection-shows-modest-s...

 

What did you find out about Wilfrid Laurier University and the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy?

NorthReport

Rok Smile

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EKOS & Innovative are in the mix.

The polling BS meter just went through the roof.  Laughing

These seat projections are not woth the paper they are written on.

 

 

NorthReport

Anyone who would include Innovative Research to create stats - well nough said. 

As I said it was a while back, and I learned enough to, let's put it this way - stay away.

This is the very dirty game of poliitics, where very frequently things are not what they appear to be on the surface.

Be particularly careful about innoculous sounding names such as Sir Wilfred Laurier U*, the Fraser Institute, etc.

But you're a big boy, I'll let you do your own research. Wink

 

* Unsure about the whole insitution, as it was the political science area that gave me cause for concern. 

 

 

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JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Be particularly careful about innoculous sounding names such as Sir Wilfred Laurier U,...

As far as I can tell, Wilfred Laurier University is a legitimate university.

Wilfrid Laurier University - Wikipedia

Quote:

Wilfrid Laurier University is a public research university located in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. It also has campuses in Brantford, Ontario, Kitchener, Ontario and Toronto, Ontario and a future proposed campus in Milton, Ontario. It is named in honour of Sir Wilfrid Laurier, the seventh Prime Minister of Canada. Laurier offers a full range of undergraduate and graduate programs in a variety of fields. Laurier is one of the fastest-growing universities in Canada (enrollment more than doubled from 1997 to 2006). The main campus is located in Waterloo. The City of Waterloo is home to both Wilfrid Laurier University and the University of Waterloo. Laurier also ranks 10th in the 2014 Maclean's University Rankings for the Comprehensive university category, which compares Canadian research-intensive universities. In 2013, Research Infosource Inc. ranked Laurier University in the top 50 of research universities in Canada, out of nearly 100 Canadian universities in existence. Laurier is one of only 14 universities in Canada to have its own publishing company; it has a 39-year history.

Motto Latin: Veritas Omnia Vincit Motto in English Truth conquers all

Established 1911 Evangelical Lutheran Seminary of Canada (1911). Subsequent names, Waterloo College of Arts (1925), Waterloo Lutheran University (1960), and now, Wilfrid Laurier University (1973-present).

Type Public Endowment $41 million

Academic staff: 513

Undergraduates: 13,900 full-time, 2,000 part-time

Postgraduates 860 full-time, 400 part-time

Location Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

 

NorthReport

Check my asterik above, and start doing some serious research.

Tell me JKR, would you include polls in a seat projection if a pollster were directly connected to a political party - like a political party operative?

Please take off your rose-coloured glasses.

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Check my asterik above, and start doing some serious research.

Tell me JKR, would you include polls in a seat projection if a pollster were directly connected to a political party - like a political party operative?

Please take off your rose-coloured glasses.

What evidence do you have that pollsters are rigging their polls in favour of certain political parties? If it was discovered that a public opinion pollster was rigging their polls in favour of a certain political party, wouldn't that pollster's reputation be damaged?

Northern-54

There can be no conclusive evidence one way or the other that an individual pollster is rigging their polls for one party or another.  However, I agree with North Report that anyone who thinks that they do not is wearing "rose-coloured glasses." 

 

The only time that pollsters really need to worry about their reputations is near the end of election periods where their poll numbers can be compared to the actual results. 

 

I have been impressed with the way NANOS, in particular, can skew their polls until their last poll of a campaign and then all of sudden have their polls agree with the final result.  I have no doubt that Nanos knows how to conduct a reliable poll.  Whether they choose to do so early on in campaigns, I am not so confident.

JKR

For argument sake, let's say Nanos is running rigged polls. How would that work? Let's say you're working at Nanos and they're running rigged polls. How would they go about doing that? Their statisticians would have to be in on the conspiracy. Do the managers at Nanos tell their workers, "don't tell anyone but we're running another rigged poll to benefit a political party"? Wouldn't going along with such unethical behavior border on the criminal?

And isn't most of the methodology of polls out in the open?

Personally I think that the pollsters are flawed but honest. The biggest flaw in Canadian polling is that no group (accept for the Conservatives?) is usually willing to pay enough money to have a reliable poll done.

I think people like to see conspiracies in the polling when they are not happy with the results of the polls.

Sineed

mark_alfred wrote:

Seat projection by Global News (based on some recent polls -- link)

The polls comprising this projection only go up to May 3rd. I'm still hopeful that Hudak's announcement of a 100,000 job-killing plan was enough of a bombshell that his support will have slid.

My highly unscientific projection: status quo. Another Liberal minority.

nicky

I think Wynne's attacks on the NDP means that the party must be polling more like the 28%that Ipsos reports rather than the 21% that Forum gives it.

If it's support was at the lower level there would be not much left to squeeze.

NorthReport

N-54

Very well said.

You are describing what polling guru Nate Silver calls "herding".

Silver, of NYTimes fame, a polling aggregator, operates the website www.fivethirteight.com, and Silver has devised some ways to overcome poll manipulation very close to the actual election date.

Look at the gas plants scandal? 

Why did Chretien resign?

Why did Charest resign?

Why did McGuinty resign?

It goes on and on and on.

How often have we seen dirty tricks in politics?

Lokk at all the scandals we are aware of.

And imagine all the ones that have never seen the light of day.

Just here at rabble how often have we heard "I used to be NDP but now I'm a Liberal" or "I'm an NDPer" and then they trash the NDP.

We disagree on occasion, but I am not including Unionist in that mix.

So if there is huge corruption in politics there is corruption in polling as well. as polling and politics are connected at the hip.

Do you believe everything you read in newspapers - of course not.

Then why would you necessarily believe pollsters?

Are there honest pollsters? Of course.

Are there dishonest pollsters?  Let's just say if I were a betting person I would go to Vegas and put my money on it. 

And the cry goes out  - sour grapes, as people don't like the results.

Yes that indeed does happen on occasion, but the reasons here are different

When you have only a few polls, and one political party is connected to several of the pollsters, you have to be politically brain dead to not suspect something is up.

Take a look at the press. 99% of the articles are trashing Andrea. Yet the most recent poll released, by a reasonably reliable pollster, Ipsos Reid, who is certainly not an NDP pollster, shows the NDP polling within 3% of the Liberals. Why the huge disconnect between that kind of support for the NDP and the mainstream press? Because it is propaganda, that's why. Some media are connected to and support certain political parties. And some pollsster are no different.

So all I am saying is please stop with the naivety.

Nate Silver, who analyses polls in the politically corrupt USA has done extensive research. Read some of his stuff and you get a glimpse into the very, dirty world of polling.

And by-the-way, when most of the press and many pollsters were predicting a close race between Obama & Romney,  Nate Silver called BS to it, and he was dead on that it was not even close. It is definitely woth reading up on polling manipulation, and there are some previous threads here about it. When we get closer to voting day we can discuss in more detail, what N-54 has descrived, and what Nate Silver mentioned above calls "herding"    

Northern-54 wrote:

There can be no conclusive evidence one way or the other that an individual pollster is rigging their polls for one party or another.  However, I agree with North Report that anyone who thinks that they do not is wearing "rose-coloured glasses." 

 

The only time that pollsters really need to worry about their reputations is near the end of election periods where their poll numbers can be compared to the actual results. 

 

I have been impressed with the way NANOS, in particular, can skew their polls until their last poll of a campaign and then all of sudden have their polls agree with the final result.  I have no doubt that Nanos knows how to conduct a reliable poll.  Whether they choose to do so early on in campaigns, I am not so confident.

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josh

308 is now showing a conservative majority. Hard to believe that the Ipsos poll would have moved that many seats.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/05/ontario-polls-continue-to-confu...

Rokossovsky

josh wrote:

308 is now showing a conservative majority. Hard to believe that the Ipsos poll would have moved that many seats.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/05/ontario-polls-continue-to-confu...

I know! Boo! Hudak!

That is precisely how I interpreted the statement there that said: "The Liberals have moved ahead in the seat count again, with 46 seats to 40 for the PCs."

That has "Tory majority" written all over it for sure.

josh

The chart at the top is dated today, and is updated before the writeup, as usual. The writeup is from May 9.

NorthReport

Often there is a simple way to ascertain what a pollster is all about. 

Find out who the respective pollster is connected to?

Who is Nanos connected to - presently it's Bell Media which includes CTV and the Globe and Mail. Isn't that correct?

Who writes his pay cheques?

Are you going to bite the hand that feeds you - perhaps. And perhaps not.

Just start asking yourself some of these questions.

in other words do some critical thinking about what is unfortunately the dirty game of politics.

 

Look at the current nanos research website - www.nanosresearch.com

The NDP are 2nd in the stats, but in 3rd place ion the list.

Accidential. From a professional communicator. Perhaps. Perhaps not.


Nanos Canadian Party Brand Index

PARTY POWER INDEX


Canada Trendline [PDF
]

Liberal 55.9+0.9

Conservative 50.4-0.3

NDP 50.5+1.9

Green34.5+0.7

BQ28.5-0.3

(Change b/w April 25 - May 02/14) 

 

 

josh

And the updated writeup:

As the projection model is designed to replicate the likely outcome of the election, likely voter tallies are preferred when they are available during an election campaign. Accordingly, the 14-point lead recorded by Ipsos for the Tories among likely voters has made the projection swing wildly in their favour.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/05/will-turnout-give-pcs-majority.html

Rokossovsky

I doubt that will manifest, but what is most intersting to that analysis of those figures is the discussion of turnout.

"Turnout could be an election-winning factor in the upcoming election, particularly if it is as anemic as it was in 2011. The Tories appear to have a crushing advantage in this regard. Among all Ontarians aged 55 or older (the cohort most likely to tramp out to the polls), the PC lead expanded to 51% against 24% for the Liberals and 23% for the NDP. That is enormous."

Precisely the problem with "hold your nose and vote" strategic voting campaigns is they produce very uninspired canvassers, campaign workers and little performance from voters themselves, who are more likely to stay home despite "preference".

Motivation and organization is key, as we saw in Brandon-Souris, where the Liberals failed to capitalize on a massive lead in voter preference and win the by-election, or in the Toronto 2010 mayors race where the polls were showing a dead heat between Smitherman and Ford, but voter commitment on polling day produced a 10% lead for Ford on E-day.

Liberal voters should get off the pot and move NDP in order capture momentum, because they are the only party that is not Hudak that has real potential to build momentum.

NorthReport

BC Voice of Reason12 May, 2014 12:24

Eric 

Intuitively your model is working better than I would have thought.

Intuitively before the lection and without looking at any polls it would seem that a PC win (or even NDP) would be a given for this election based on the total mess the OLP created.

However I thought the larger polls done by Innovative Research (1500) would have more of a lasting impact on your model.

You obviously have some extra smarts built in that are not aware to the the casual outside observer (me).

Good on You!!

I think the Liberals are moving into the fall of Saigon mode.... They will be getting higher onto the building so the choppers can get them out of town.

It will be interesting if the political wing of the Public Service unions can move their votes from the Liberals to the NDP so that it does not give the appearance that the people of Ontario are giving Hudak a clear mandate to slash the Public Service.

Reply

  1. Dan12 May, 2014 13:51

    The public (and private) sector unions in Ontario have been all over the map for years now between solidly supporting either the Libs or the NDP or splitting the difference -- they aren't solidly in the Libs favour, and thus only some of them would be in the position you describe. If the Liberal vote collapses, which I also see as a strong, but not definite, possibility, some of the pro-Liberal unions would try to move votes to the NDP, and succeed with some. Others of their members (and other Lib voters) would move on their own. The general process would look like the last Federal election, but not necessarily with the same winner, since Hudak isn't Harper, among other things. Either the Tories or the NDP could win in this situation -- I wouldn't hazard a prediction this early.

  1. http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/05/will-turnout-give-pcs-majority....