Ontario Polling Thread - started May 20, 2014

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NorthReport
Ontario Polling Thread - started May 20, 2014

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NorthReport

Updated - from the previous thread.

The PCs are ahead.

At this point the right-wing Liberal strategy is to drive down the NDP vote with their right-wing Liberal media and right-wing Liberal pollster crews, to try and make it appear that the right-wing Liberals are doing well. 

The right-wing Liberals are not doing well.

It is all right-wing Liberal smoke and mirrors as usual.

Right wing Liberals always campaign on the left and govern on the right.

Do a little research into the pollsters and find out their political connections - you will be amazed at what you will discover. 

And remember its garbage in = garbage out for the aggregators.

If you have several polls in the aggregator mix connected with one party who cares if as they claim they are averaging a group of polls - their stats are mostly meaningless.

A couple of good pollsters missing from the mix, with good track records are Angus Reid / Vision Critical and Environics . Although not current, I have added of what appears to be Environics most recent Ontario polls at trhe end.

Date / Pollster / PCs / Libs / NDP / Connections

2011 / GE / 35% / 38% / 23%

May 15 / EKOS / 30% / 37% / 21% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

May 14 / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 30% / 24% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

May 13 / Forum / 33% / 38% / 21% / Liberal or Flake / Bozinoff / Disregard

May 8 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

May 6 / Innov / 33% / 39% / 20% / Liberal  / Lyle / Disregard

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 31% / 25% /  PCs / 

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 33% / 22% /   / Liberal or Flake/ Bozinoff / Disregard

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / PCs / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Right-Wing / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

----------------------------

Jun '12 / Environics / 37% / 25% / 28%

Apr '12 / Environics / 37% / 27% / 30%

----------------------

 

NorthReport

Who is missing from the mix?

Pollsters, Aggregators, Media and who they are connected with past or present or who they support

Pollsters

Angus Reid / Vision Critical - Independent

COMPAS - PCs

CROP - Independent

EKOS - Liberal

Environics - Independent

Forum - Liberal

Harris Decima - PCs

Innovative - Liberal

Ipsos Reid - uusually leans a bit right

Leger Marketing - Independent

Nanos - right wing Lib or PC, doesn't matter which

Oracle - PCs

 

Aggregators

308 - right-wing either Lib or PC, doesn't matter which

Election Almanac - Independent

Election Prediction Project - Liberal

 

Media

CBC - Liberal you think.

CTV - right-wing either Lib or PC doesn't matter which

Globe and Mail - right-wing either Lib or PC doesn't matter which

Huffington Post - Liberal

IPolitics - Liberal

National Nreswatch - Liberal

National Post - right wing PCs

Postmedia - right wing either Lib or Pcs, doesn't matter which

Toronto Star - Liberal you think.

 

 

NorthReport

Link

 

NorthReport
NorthReport

Looking forward to Angus Reid polls.

NorthReport

No pollsters, aggregators, nor mainstream media in their corner and yet Andrea keeps suprising everyone with her constructive campaign.

Has the Liberal Bob Rae albatross finally been lifted from the neck of the Ontario NDP? 

NorthReport

NDP in excellent position to do very well
And with a good campaign could win the election

Abacus

PCs 33%

Libs 33%

NDP 26%

NorthReport

Polling is now beginning in ernest it seems

takeitslowly
NorthReport

This seems to be very much where Andrea needs to be to win the election. Not a good idea for the NDP to be the frontrunner right now, but within striking distance.

This election has a long way to go yet,

Quote:
"Ontario’s New Democrats — led by Andrea Horwath — are in the hunt but trailing with 26% support."

nicky

More numbers from Abacus;

http://abacusinsider.com/ontario-election-2/liberals-pcs-tied-33/

 

The Ontario polls are crazy, absolutely no consistency among them. 

nicky

More numbers from Abacus;

http://abacusinsider.com/ontario-election-2/liberals-pcs-tied-33/

 

The Ontario polls are crazy, absolutely no consistency among them. 

NorthReport

 

Updated -

Just do a google search on the Abacus Chairman "Bruce Anderson Liberal Connections" and see what you come up with. Laughing

----------------------------------------------

The PCs are ahead.

At this point the right-wing Liberal strategy is to drive down the NDP vote with their right-wing Liberal media and right-wing Liberal pollster crews, to try and make it appear that the right-wing Liberals are doing well. 

The right-wing Liberals are not doing that well.

It is all right-wing Liberal smoke and mirrors as usual.

Right wing Liberals always campaign on the left and govern on the right.

Do a little research into the pollsters and find out their political connections - you will be amazed at what you will discover. 

And remember its garbage in = garbage out for the aggregators.

If you have several polls in the aggregator mix connected with one party who cares if as they claim they are averaging a group of polls - their stats are mostly meaningless.

A couple of good pollsters missing from the mix, with good track records are Angus Reid / Vision Critical and Environics . Although not current, I have added of what appears to be Environics most recent Ontario polls at trhe end.

Date / Pollster / PCs / Libs / NDP / Connections

2011 / GE / 35% / 38% / 23%

May 20 / Abacus / 36% / 33% / 26% /    

May 15 / EKOS / 30% / 37% / 21% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

May 14 / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 30% / 24% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

May 13 / Forum / 33% / 38% / 21% / Liberal or Flake / Bozinoff / Disregard

May 8 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

May 6 / Innov / 33% / 39% / 20% / Liberal  / Lyle / Disregard

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 31% / 25% /  PCs / 

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 33% / 22% /   / Liberal or Flake/ Bozinoff / Disregard

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / PCs / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Right-Wing / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

----------------------------

Jun '12 / Environics / 37% / 25% / 28%

Apr '12 / Environics / 37% / 27% / 30%

----------------------

 

PrairieDemocrat15

nicky wrote:

More numbers from Abacus;

http://abacusinsider.com/ontario-election-2/liberals-pcs-tied-33/

 

The Ontario polls are crazy, absolutely no consistency among them. 

This is the most positive poll for the NDP since the writ was dropped.

takeitslowly
mark_alfred

takeitslowly wrote:

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/05/20/libs-and-tories-tied-in-election-battle

 

 

only the SUN is reporting this.

southwest Ontario looks good.

Aristotleded24

mark_alfred wrote:

takeitslowly wrote:

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/05/20/libs-and-tories-tied-in-election-battle

 

 

only the SUN is reporting this.

southwest Ontario looks good.

The southeast does not, and the PCs being that close to the NDP in the 416 worries me as well.

robbie_dee

nicky wrote:

The Ontario polls are crazy, absolutely no consistency among them. 

I agree. Either the Liberals or Conservatives are leading or they are tied. Everybody agrees the NDP is in third but the NDP could be close behind or it could be almost 20 points back. I can't understand it. I don't subscribe to the theory that certain pollsters are deliberately trying to skew their results one way or the other (unless a particular party is paying them to do so). There may be methodological differences but I also suspect that the public is just not that engaged yet. I do think that people are in a volatile mood.

Northern-54

I believe that affiliated pollsters probably use "push" polls, asking a series of questions that they are testing to see if will lead to a particular result. These are like "tests" that the party of their choice can use to tweak their message and develop new tv ads.

When I was younger, I was involved in many local, provincial, territorial and federal campaigns.  One thing I always liked to do is a push poll with script that i thought might lead to better results for the NDP. (I learned this from my mother and uncle who were actively involved in campaigns for the CCF in Saskatchewan.)  It helped with scripting for local radio ads, which used to be even more important than they are now.

What I did was get results from canvassing, what people were saying, impressions of canvassers, particularly ones with either a natural knack for it or a lot of experience.  I did alot of canvassing myself, partly for that reason.  This would lead to questions that I used in my phone survey that came before the vote question.  I had 10-20 older party members who would make about 30 calls each and this would be the size of my poll.  The results were skewed but it did give me helpful information that could be used in  local advertising. It also allowed for the use of "lines" by door to door and telephone canvassers.

I think that push polls happen in province wide polls, especially at the start/middle of campaigns.  I think this is largely the reason that affiliated pollsters seem to be giving results favouring the Liberals or the Conservatives in this provincial election as well as others.

NorthReport

PCs - No Change

Liberals - Down

NDP - Up

Link

 

 

 

 

 

 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:
PCs - No Change

Liberals - Down

NDP - Up

Link

Why didn't you mention the raw statistics?

Here are the statistics from your link:

Quote:

Vote Projection
PC: 35.8%
Lib: 34.3%
NDP: 23.4%
Green: 5.2%

Seat Projection
Lib: 44
PC: 41
NDP: 22
Green: 0

DLivings

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:
PCs - No Change

Liberals - Down

NDP - Up

Link

Why didn't you mention the raw statistics?

Here are the statistics from your link:

Quote:

Vote Projection
PC: 35.8%
Lib: 34.3%
NDP: 23.4%
Green: 5.2%

Seat Projection
Lib: 44
PC: 41
NDP: 22
Green: 0

JKR, I guess you didn't notice the latest poll results just down the page...

Abacus results

JKR

DLivings wrote:

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:
PCs - No Change

Liberals - Down

NDP - Up

Link

Why didn't you mention the raw statistics?

Here are the statistics from your link:

Quote:

Vote Projection
PC: 35.8%
Lib: 34.3%
NDP: 23.4%
Green: 5.2%

Seat Projection
Lib: 44
PC: 41
NDP: 22
Green: 0

JKR, I guess you didn't notice the latest poll results just down the page...

In that case, NR should have used the raw statstics further down the page if his primary objective was reporting information, not spinning information.  My point was that NR chose to omit raw statistics in order to spin information. If we want to here on Babble we can pick and choose and spin info but I don't think that's very beneficial for discourse here on Babble.

josh
nicky

Forum has consistently had the lowest numbers for the NDP. I don't say they are necesarily wrong but their track record is mixed. They were pretty close in Quebec and detected the last minute swing to the Liberals in BC, but they have been wildly wrong in several byeleaction polls while being close in others.

Abacus feels more correct to me in placing the NDP at 26%. Apart from the party preference numbers Abacus has other good news for the NDP in assessing the potential "universe" for the various parties:

Liberals: Base vote of 10% + 10% Con/Lib swing voters + 21% Lib/ NDP = 41%

Cons: 16% base + 10% Con/Lib + 12% Con/NDP = 38%

NDP: base 10% + 21% Lib/NDP + 12% Con / NDP = 43%.

 

Perhaps the  most interesting number is that 12% are potentially wavering beyween the NDP and the Consevatives, suggesting a big pool of voters who are casting around for an alternative to the Liberals. This has been noted in other polling and may explain some of the NDP tactics in this election.

 

NorthReport

Updated -

Political polls, can be very misleading, especially if too many of them are connected with one political party. 

4 of the 7, or 57%, of the latest pollsters are connecterd with the Liberals or are unreliable, so remember the old adage: garbage in = garbage out.

For example Just do a google search on the Abacus Chairman "Bruce Anderson Liberal Connections" and see what you come up with. Laughing

And Abacus are not even included in the 4 out of 7 most recent pollsters above.

Because there is no way to confirm polling, pollsters can report any results they want until shortly before the election when they have to bring their polls in line with what is actually happening on the ground.

Herding is quite common in the political polling industry but Nate Silver has devised a strategy to help expose that. 

A couple of pollsters missing from the mix, are Angus Reid / Vision Critical and Environics.

Although not current, Environics' most recent Ontario polls are at the end.

Date / Pollster / PCs / Libs / NDP / Connections

2011 / GE / 35% / 38% / 23%  

May 21 / Forum / 34% / 41% / 20% / Disregard

May 20 / Abacus / 36% / 33% / 26%  /    

May 15 / EKOS / 30% / 37% / 21% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

May 14 / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 30% / 24% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

May 13 / Forum / 33% / 38% / 21% / Liberal or Flake / Bozinoff / Disregard

May 8 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker Fairly Reliable

May 6 / Innov / 33% / 39% / 20% / Liberal  / Lyle / Disregard

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 31% / 25% /  PCs / 

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 33% / 22% /   / Liberal or Flake/ Bozinoff / Disregard

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / PCs / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Right-Wing / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

----------------------------

Jun '12 / Environics / 37% / 25% / 28%

Apr '12 / Environics / 37% / 27% / 30%

----------------------

NorthReport

And so it begins!  Smile

Not too shabby a time for the NDP to gain momentum, eh!

NDP closes in on the frontrunner PCs

 NDP gains 3% on the Liberals and now there is just 7% between the PCs and the NDP

Looking good Andrea, and keep up the great effort.

A couple of pollsters missing from the mix, are Angus Reid / Vision Critical and Environics.

Although not current, Environics' most recent Ontario polls are at the end.

Updated

Date / Pollster / PCs / Libs / NDP / Connections

2011 / GE / 35% / 38% / 23%  

May 22 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28%

May 21 / Forum / 34% / 41% / 20% / Disregard

May 20 / Abacus / 36% / 33% / 26%  /    

May 15 / EKOS / 30% / 37% / 21% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

May 14 / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 30% / 24% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

May 13 / Forum / 33% / 38% / 21% / Liberal or Flake / Bozinoff / Disregard

May 8 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker Fairly Reliable

May 6 / Innov / 33% / 39% / 20% / Liberal  / Lyle / Disregard

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 31% / 25% /  PCs / 

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 33% / 22% /   / Liberal or Flake/ Bozinoff / Disregard

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / PCs / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Right-Wing / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

----------------------------

Jun '12 / Environics / 37% / 25% / 28%

Apr '12 / Environics / 37% / 27% / 30%

----------------------

NorthReport

The NDP are now tied with the Liberals within the margin of error. 

NDP gains momentum as Ontario election race tightens

PCs - 35% , Down 4%, and Down 8% against the NDP

Libs - 31%, Up 1%, and Down 3% against the NDP

NDP - 28%, Up 4%, and Up 3% on the Liberals, and Up 8% on the PCs. 

But there is even better news yet to come for Andrea's NDP. Smile

 

NorthReport

Actually josh, sorry to burst the Liberal bubble, but Kinsella seems to have quite a good handle on things.

Told ya

ctrl190

 

The polls this election cycle are insane. Forum/Toronto Star has the NDP at 20% while Ipsos Reid/CTV has the NDP at 28%. Undecided

 

Debater

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

nicky wrote:

More numbers from Abacus;

http://abacusinsider.com/ontario-election-2/liberals-pcs-tied-33/

 

The Ontario polls are crazy, absolutely no consistency among them. 

This is the most positive poll for the NDP since the writ was dropped.

The Abacus poll is actually pretty good overall for Kathleen Wynne according to what Abacus pollster David Coletto has said today.  She comes across the best overall on leadership and who voters think would be the Best Premier.

The Abacus poll is a little better for the NDP than the other polls, yes, but remember that Abacus tends to be more favourable to the NDP historically just as Ipsos Reid is more Conservative-friendly and EKOS is more Liberal-friendly.

I agree that the Ontario polls are crazy though.  That's because there are so many pollsters now and many of them have their own bias, plus there are a lot of undecided and unmotivated voters in this election who are unsure which of the 3 options to choose.  None of the 3 options is ideal for some voters.  I'm seeing that in my own riding.

NorthReport

Does Liberal Toronto Star mean anything?  Laughing

Rokossovsky

The Toronto Star when it launched its night and day attacks against Ford failed miserably to defeat Ford. They did manage to squeeze out the left candidate entirely by hammering on the "Anybody but Ford" theme, but mostly succeeded in draining any logical discussion on policy out of the campaign by reducing it to personality politics and a battle of good vs. evil.

That was understandable, however, since even a cursory inspection of Smitherman's platform showed that he varied little with Ford in any area of policy, and so discussion on that point had to be avoided. Mostly it was a discussion of aesthetics, not unlike what we are getting a good dose of on this website from the Andrea Horwath is Margaret Thatcher crowd.

 

NorthReport

Actually the Ipsos Reid polling has been relatively consistent.

The Liberal Toronto Star  - mean anything?

There is only one reason some polls are skewed, and it is the dirty game of politics.

ctrl190 wrote:

The polls this election cycle are insane. Forum/Toronto Star has the NDP at 20% while Ipsos Reid/CTV has the NDP at 28%. Undecided

 

NorthReport

But don't worry Liberal supporters, I'm sure there will be another BS Liberal poll, EKOS, Forum, Innovative anyone, out lickety split.

NorthReport

Gobbledygook.

Liberals always try to confuse the voters so that nothing is clear.

What is clear is that the Liberal pollsters, who will hang on to the bitter end, will have to fall in line with whast is actually hasppening on the ground before June 12. 

Liberals have

Debater wrote:

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

nicky wrote:

More numbers from Abacus;

http://abacusinsider.com/ontario-election-2/liberals-pcs-tied-33/

 

The Ontario polls are crazy, absolutely no consistency among them. 

This is the most positive poll for the NDP since the writ was dropped.

The Abacus poll is actually pretty good overall for Kathleen Wynne according to what Abacus pollster David Coletto has said today.  She comes across the best overall on leadership and who voters think would be the Best Premier.

The Abacus poll is a little better for the NDP than the other polls, yes, but remember that Abacus tends to be more favourable to the NDP historically just as Ipsos Reid is more Conservative-friendly and EKOS is more Liberal-friendly.

I agree that the Ontario polls are crazy though.  That's because there are so many pollsters now and many of them have their own bias, plus there are a lot of undecided and unmotivated voters in this election who are unsure which of the 3 options to choose.  None of the 3 options is ideal for some voters.  I'm seeing that in my own riding.

nicky

I agree the polls are baffling.

There have been four polls released in the last week. Here they are with their field dates:

 

EKOS ( May 13-15) C 30 L 37 N 21

Abacus ( 14 -16)    C 33 L 33 N 26

Forum (20)            C 34 L 41 N 20

Ipsos (20-21)        C 35 L 31 N 28

If we eliminate Forum as an outlier there is a pattern. The Cons and NDP have risen markedly in the last week and the Libs have fallen markedly.We might well expect further polarization between the Cons and the NDP and the Liberal vote might get badly squeezed as in the last federal election.

If we keep Forum in the analysis I don't know what to think.

 

Debater

NR, I sometimes get the sense that you may be a Conservative pretending to be an NDPer.  Your posts over the past several years are always anti-Liberal, but while supposedly supporting the NDP you often appear to cheer for the Conservatives.

I find it interesting that you've appointed yourself the National Polling Expert on the previous page of which pollsters should be trusted and which should be discarded.  You've said we should trust Ipsos Reid/Darrel Bricker, even though they are a Conservative-leaning firm, and that we should toss out EKOS and Forum.

Btw, I'm actually predicting that Tim Hudak is the most likely winner of this election.  Kathleen Wynne is a good, sensible & stable leader who would obviously be better for Ontario than Hudak.  However, she has to deal with the McGuinty baggage & the fact that the Liberals have been in power for 3 terms and after 10 years people get hungry for a change.  She's a good leader who's unfortunately come along at a difficult time for the Ontario Liberals.  And with Horwath & the NDP likely splitting the vote, I don't see enough votes out there that can combine in one place to beat Hudak at the moment.

However, the one upside to a Hudak Win is that it could increase Liberal chances in the next Federal election.  Ontario voters usually vote one way provincially and another way federally - it's been that way throughout modern history.  The Ontario Liberals took power in Fall 2003, and so the whole time Harper has been PM, there has been a Lib Gov. in Ontario.  If Hudak gets in and starts creating chaos with massive cuts, it could tank the Con numbers federally.  Craig Oliver commented on this possibility on CTV Question Period this past Sunday.

NorthReport

Seeing as the party leader is a big part of the election campaign, we need to have the polling on the respective leaders as well, so let's start tonite from a reasonably credible pollster

It looks like the rumours of Andrea's demise were greatly exaggerated as  she is out front with a solid lead, with Wynne and Hudak battling it out to say out of third place.

 

Andrea Horwath 38%

Kathleen Wynne 32%

Tim Hudak 30%

NDP gains momentum as Ontario election race tightens

Ontario party leaders

According to the poll, the desire for change remains strong, with 72 per cent of Ontarians saying “it is time for another provincial party to take over and run the province.” Twenty-eight per cent think that the “Liberal government under Premier Kathleen Wynne has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected during the next provincial election.”

Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/ndp-gains-momentum-as-ontario-election-race-tightens-1.1833865#ixzz32Uy3DsOE

-----------------------------------------

And so it begins!  Smile

Not too shabby a time for the NDP to gain momentum, eh!

NDP closes in on the frontrunner PCs

 NDP gains 3% on the Liberals and now there is just 7% between the PCs and the NDP

Looking good Andrea, and keep up the great effort.

A couple of pollsters missing from the mix, are Angus Reid / Vision Critical and Environics.

Although not current, Environics' most recent Ontario polls are at the end.

Updated

Date / Pollster / PCs / Libs / NDP / Connections

2011 / GE / 35% / 38% / 23%  

May 22 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28%

May 21 / Forum / 34% / 41% / 20% / Disregard

May 20 / Abacus / 36% / 33% / 26%  /    

May 15 / EKOS / 30% / 37% / 21% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

May 14 / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 30% / 24% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

May 13 / Forum / 33% / 38% / 21% / Liberal or Flake / Bozinoff / Disregard

May 8 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker Fairly Reliable

May 6 / Innov / 33% / 39% / 20% / Liberal  / Lyle / Disregard

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 31% / 25% /  PCs / 

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 33% / 22% /   / Liberal or Flake/ Bozinoff / Disregard

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / PCs / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Right-Wing / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

----------------------------

Jun '12 / Environics / 37% / 25% / 28%

Apr '12 / Environics / 37% / 27% / 30%

----------------------

 

NorthReport

Who are you today? terrytowel? Lens Solution? Debater? Which name or names are you using today? 

The reason why the Liberals will end up in 3rd place is primarily because of their lies and deceit. Liberals cannot be trusted - Liberals could not deliver on 3 simple promises to the NDP, and Liberals set up this election with 70 promises in their budget probably not one of which they planned to deliver. With 72% of Ontarians wanting change, Liberal's chance is over, and there is only one party now, the Andrea-led ONDP who can stop the right-wing PCs. 

Debater wrote:

NR, I sometimes get the sense that you may be a Conservative pretending to be an NDPer.  Your posts over the past several years are always anti-Liberal, but while supposedly supporting the NDP you often appear to cheer for the Conservatives.

I find it interesting that you've appointed yourself the National Polling Expert on the previous page of which pollsters should be trusted and which should be discarded.  You've said we should trust Ipsos Reid/Darrel Bricker, even though they are a Conservative-leaning firm, and that we should toss out EKOS and Forum.

Btw, I'm actually predicting that Tim Hudak is the most likely winner of this election.  Kathleen Wynne is a good, sensible & stable leader who would obviously be better for Ontario than Hudak.  However, she has to deal with the McGuinty baggage & the fact that the Liberals have been in power for 3 terms and after 10 years people get hungry for a change.  She's a good leader who's unfortunately come along at a difficult time for the Ontario Liberals.  And with Horwath & the NDP likely splitting the vote, I don't see enough votes out there that can combine in one place to beat Hudak at the moment.

However, the one upside to a Hudak Win is that it could increase Liberal chances in the next Federal election.  Ontario voters usually vote one way provincially and another way federally - it's been that way throughout modern history.  The Ontario Liberals took power in Fall 2003, and so the whole time Harper has been PM, there has been a Lib Gov. in Ontario.  If Hudak gets in and starts creating chaos with massive cuts, it could tank the Con numbers federally.  Craig Oliver commented on this possibility on CTV Question Period this past Sunday.

Debater
Debater

NR, you've been asked before by the moderators not to make those sort of personal attacks on other posters and accuse other people of being me.  I'm sure the other posters above aren't happy you are claiming they are me in disguise. Smile I haven't been on this board in a year, but I re-appeared under my own name.  So I'm not hiding behind another name.

Let's keep this thread on the topic at hand and not on your imaginings about Terry Towel, etc.

Debater

Btw, even if the NDP vote goes up, it won't be easy for them to win Ontario.  Remember that they have only won Ontario once - and that was nearly 25 years ago under a vote split and under Bob Rae - and Andrea Horwath is not Bob Rae.  Rae had been leader for many years and had been in a joint-government arrangement with David Peterson.

There currently is not the concentration of votes for the NDP to win in Ontario because of their weakness in the 905 & Eastern Ontario, as well as the numerous 416 Liberal strongholds and rural Conservative strongholds.  Currently the NDP holds no seats in the 905 and no seats in Eastern Ontario.

Even someone as popular as Jack Layton, a Toronto MP and City Councillor, was not able to win in the 905 or anywhere in Eastern Ontario except Ottawa Centre.  Here in Eastern Ontario where I live, I see very few NDP votes and not enough concentration to gain any real momentum.

Rokossovsky

Debater wrote:

NR, you've been asked before by the moderators not to make those sort of personal attacks on other posters and accuse other people of being me.  I'm sure the other posters above aren't happy you are claiming they are me in disguise. Smile I haven't been on this board in a year, but I re-appeared under my own name.  So I'm not hiding behind another name.

Let's keep this thread on the topic at hand and not on your imaginings about Terry Towel, etc.

You mean personal attacks like this one:

Debater wrote:

NR, I sometimes get the sense that you may be a Conservative pretending to be an NDPer.  Your posts over the past several years are always anti-Liberal, but while supposedly supporting the NDP you often appear to cheer for the Conservatives.

 

Debater

Er, no.  I'm not accusing NR of having multiple identites and prenteding to be other posters under other names.

I'm accurately pointing out that he has been trumpeting the consevative-leaning Ipsos Reid polls

Winston

Debater, you started the personal attack on North Report by accusing him of being a Conservative.

Attacking Liberals does not make one a Conservative. I too hate the Liberal Party with a deep passion and would sooner choose the Christian Heritage Party over them, in spite of my atheism. Fortunately, I never vote strategically so my vote is always given to the NDP.

North Report, your endless NDP cheerleading, reposting and spinning of poll summaries adds as little to the conversation as Debater's Liberal shilling.

Between all of the shilling, baiting, disruption, and spurious "flagging" of comments, I'm surprised the poor moderators haven't suspended the lot of you.

Please, for the sake of those of us who enjoy reading and occasionally participating in the forum, grow up a bit! 

Debater wrote:

NR, you've been asked before by the moderators not to make those sort of personal attacks on other posters and accuse other people of being me.  I'm sure the other posters above aren't happy you are claiming they are me in disguise. Smile I haven't been on this board in a year, but I re-appeared under my own name.  So I'm not hiding behind another name.

Let's keep this thread on the topic at hand and not on your imaginings about Terry Towel, etc.

Debater

I'm not 'shilling'.  I'm a Liberal now and no longer a Liberal-NDP swing voter, and I am honest about that.  I used to sometimes support the NDP but no longer do.

And is it not 'shilling' when people post constant glowing praises of the NDP here?  What's the difference?

Btw, I'm actually pretty objective about the Liberals.  I don't think they're perfect, but I know they are a lot better than the Conservatives and are capable of beating them, unlike the NDP.  I don't understand how you could hate the Liberals when they have done so many good things for this country - particularly at the federal level.  Would you have preferred Conservative governments all those years?

And I'm glad you agree that NR goes overboard with the posts - sometimes he posts dozens & dozens of posts one after another.  Usually all saying how evil the Liberals are and how much they have totally destroyed and corrupted Ontario.  Seriously?  The Liberals have been worse for Ontario than Mike Harris & Ernie Eves and the decimation of the social & health services?  Why doesn't NR engage in attacks on the Harris PC record with the same amount of passion he directs at the Liberals?

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
There currently is not the concentration of votes for the NDP to win in Ontario because of their weakness in the 905 & Eastern Ontario, as well as the numerous 416 Liberal strongholds and rural Conservative strongholds.  Currently the NDP holds no seats in the 905 and no seats in Eastern Ontario.

Minus the little nit-pick that the NDP currently holds Bramalea-Gore-Malton, I would agree that Eastern Ontario poses a bit of a problem, and I'd estimate the NDP ceiling in Ontario at about 30%.

NorthReport

Let's stop this crap, get back on track, and stick to politics.

Seeing as the party leader is a big part of the election campaign, we need to have the polling on the respective leaders as well, so let's start tonite from a reasonably credible pollster

 

It looks like the rumours of Andrea's demise were greatly exaggerated, as  she is out front with a solid lead, with Wynne and Hudak battling it out to stay out of third place.

 

 

Andrea Horwath 38%

Kathleen Wynne 32%

Tim Hudak 30%

NDP gains momentum as Ontario election race tightens

Ontario party leaders

According to the poll, the desire for change remains strong, with 72 per cent of Ontarians saying “it is time for another provincial party to take over and run the province.” Twenty-eight per cent think that the “Liberal government under Premier Kathleen Wynne has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected during the next provincial election.”

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And so it begins!  Smile

Not too shabby a time for the NDP to gain momentum, eh!

NDP closes in on the frontrunner PCs

 NDP gains 3% on the Liberals and now there is just 7% between the PCs and the NDP

Looking good Andrea, and keep up the great effort.

A couple of pollsters missing from the mix, are Angus Reid / Vision Critical and Environics.

Although not current, Environics' most recent Ontario polls are at the end.

Updated

Date / Pollster / PCs / Libs / NDP / Connections

2011 / GE / 35% / 38% / 23%  

May 22 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28%

May 21 / Forum / 34% / 41% / 20% / Disregard

May 20 / Abacus / 36% / 33% / 26%  /    

May 15 / EKOS / 30% / 37% / 21% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

May 14 / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 30% / 24% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

May 13 / Forum / 33% / 38% / 21% / Liberal or Flake / Bozinoff / Disregard

May 8 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker Fairly Reliable

May 6 / Innov / 33% / 39% / 20% / Liberal  / Lyle / Disregard

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 31% / 25% /  PCs / 

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 33% / 22% /   / Liberal or Flake/ Bozinoff / Disregard

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / PCs / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Leans a bit Right / Bricker / Fairly Reliable

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Right-Wing / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

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Jun '12 / Environics / 37% / 25% / 28%

Apr '12 / Environics / 37% / 27% / 30%

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