Ontario Polling Thread - started May 20, 2014

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NorthReport

Shifted comments to Ontario Election hread where it belongs

 

 

 

adma

Debater wrote:

2.  McGuinty skipped the Northern Ontario debate in 2011, and it didn't seem to hurt him outside the North since he came within 1 seat of winning a Majority.  

It didn't even hurt him as much as expected in the North, given that they kept both Thunder Bays and Sudbury (the Soo was more of a given)

mark_alfred

Rokossovsky wrote:

Of the downtown candidates, I would say Schein is less secure. He is relatively new, and has a fairly low profile.

It'd be a shame if Schein lost.  He's been really good.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Rokossovsky wrote:

Debater wrote:

nicky wrote:

So notwithstanding the machinations of the Group of 34 (the self described group of 34 "prominent New Democrats", four of who as a 40 year meber of the party I have actually heard of), the party's share has fallen a whopping 1%.

Andrea seems to have weathered this storm. The Abacus poll has other optimistic numbers for the NDP. A large number of swing voters still considering the NDP. A soft Liberal vote- only 24% (consisting of Debater and Terry and two or three others) think they deserve to be re-elected. This indicates that about one third of their vote thinks otherwise.)

Then we have today's Northern debate where Andrea seems to have mauled Kathleen.

This campaign is far from over.

1.  The numbers are not that optimistic for the NDP.  The NDP is in 3rd place in every poll.  It needs to be in 1st or a minimum of 2nd at this point in the campaign in order to win in a province like Ontario.

Sorry to bust your balloon, but Layton didn't hit second place until 2 weeks before the election.

So are you saying that the best the NDP can do is second place?

Rokossovsky

nicky wrote:

So notwithstanding the machinations of the Group of 34 (the self described group of 34 "prominent New Democrats", four of who as a 40 year meber of the party I have actually heard of), the party's share has fallen a whopping 1%.

I wouldn't be so sanguine. The NDP has been hurt in Toronto, I am sure of it. They may be able to recorver from that, the poll number may reveal vote gain in some areas, and a loss in other. Their vote maybe more distributed, and may not return more seats.

That said, I don't really think the rebels will have that much overall effect, and by the time the polls close this may be an ugly memory.

Where this is having impact will be among hardcore activists, who are very important to making the campaign successful on the ground, not so much voter intention.

Rokossovsky

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

Debater wrote:

nicky wrote:

So notwithstanding the machinations of the Group of 34 (the self described group of 34 "prominent New Democrats", four of who as a 40 year meber of the party I have actually heard of), the party's share has fallen a whopping 1%.

Andrea seems to have weathered this storm. The Abacus poll has other optimistic numbers for the NDP. A large number of swing voters still considering the NDP. A soft Liberal vote- only 24% (consisting of Debater and Terry and two or three others) think they deserve to be re-elected. This indicates that about one third of their vote thinks otherwise.)

Then we have today's Northern debate where Andrea seems to have mauled Kathleen.

This campaign is far from over.

1.  The numbers are not that optimistic for the NDP.  The NDP is in 3rd place in every poll.  It needs to be in 1st or a minimum of 2nd at this point in the campaign in order to win in a province like Ontario.

Sorry to bust your balloon, but Layton didn't hit second place until 2 weeks before the election.

So are you saying that the best the NDP can do is second place?

Third place with vote and seat gains in a Liberal minority is probably preferred, for a number of reasons.

mark_alfred

Abacus Data:  Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals lead with 36%, Tim Hudak’s PCs are close behind at 33% and Andrea Horwath’s NDP are in third with 24%.  link to Sun article about it.

Debater

Rokossovsky wrote:

Debater wrote:

nicky wrote:

So notwithstanding the machinations of the Group of 34 (the self described group of 34 "prominent New Democrats", four of who as a 40 year meber of the party I have actually heard of), the party's share has fallen a whopping 1%.

Andrea seems to have weathered this storm. The Abacus poll has other optimistic numbers for the NDP. A large number of swing voters still considering the NDP. A soft Liberal vote- only 24% (consisting of Debater and Terry and two or three others) think they deserve to be re-elected. This indicates that about one third of their vote thinks otherwise.)

Then we have today's Northern debate where Andrea seems to have mauled Kathleen.

This campaign is far from over.

1.  The numbers are not that optimistic for the NDP.  The NDP is in 3rd place in every poll.  It needs to be in 1st or a minimum of 2nd at this point in the campaign in order to win in a province like Ontario.

Sorry to bust your balloon, but Layton didn't hit second place until 2 weeks before the election.

1.  Horwath is not Layton.

2.  Do not assume that the unique, once in a generation occurrences in the 2011 federal election will be seen in this election.

3.  You aren't busting a balloon because as explained above, winning Ontario is not necessarily a good thing for a party's Federal counterpart.  Whichever party wins the Ontario election may be less likely to win Ontario in 2015.  If you want to cheer for Horwath, that's fine with me. Wink

Debater

Rokossovsky wrote:

Third place with vote and seat gains in a Liberal minority is probably preferred, for a number of reasons.

Yup - I think you've got it!

Winning the Ontario election at this point in time may be a poisoned chalice.  A short-term victory for 2 reasons:

1.  As JKR correctly pointed out, there are huge economic challenges facing Ontario, and the next Premier is going to have to make a lot of difficult decisions which can then end up hurting that provincial party and leading to a short honeymoon period.

2. Winning Ontario provincially usually means that the party doesn't win Ontario federally in the following federal election.  Whichever party wins Ontario may see its Federal brand tarnished as well.  Mulcair does not want Horwath to become another Rae and drag down the NDP in Ontario as happened to Audrey MacLachlin.  Likewise, if Hudak becomes Premier, Harper will be praying that it doesn't ruin the huge seat count he currently holds federally, and Trudeau will be nervous that a Wynne government could send his own Ontario numbers into the basement.

That's why although I'm working for my local Liberal MPP right now because I want her to be elected and my own riding to stay out of PC hands, to be honest part of me is hoping for a Hudak win provincially. Wink

Rokossovsky

On that note, I don't know if you noticed but Hudak is trying to kill his chances of winning by being as outlandish as possible,

Rokossovsky

Debater wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

Debater wrote:

nicky wrote:

So notwithstanding the machinations of the Group of 34 (the self described group of 34 "prominent New Democrats", four of who as a 40 year meber of the party I have actually heard of), the party's share has fallen a whopping 1%.

Andrea seems to have weathered this storm. The Abacus poll has other optimistic numbers for the NDP. A large number of swing voters still considering the NDP. A soft Liberal vote- only 24% (consisting of Debater and Terry and two or three others) think they deserve to be re-elected. This indicates that about one third of their vote thinks otherwise.)

Then we have today's Northern debate where Andrea seems to have mauled Kathleen.

This campaign is far from over.

1.  The numbers are not that optimistic for the NDP.  The NDP is in 3rd place in every poll.  It needs to be in 1st or a minimum of 2nd at this point in the campaign in order to win in a province like Ontario.

Sorry to bust your balloon, but Layton didn't hit second place until 2 weeks before the election.

1.  Horwath is not Layton.

2.  Do not assume that the unique, once in a generation occurrences in the 2011 federal election will be seen in this election.

3.  You aren't busting a balloon because as explained above, winning Ontario is not necessarily a good thing for a party's Federal counterpart.  Whichever party wins the Ontario election may be less likely to win Ontario in 2015.  If you want to cheer for Horwath, that's fine with me. Wink

The only assumptions being made here are by you. I am not predicting an ONDP win. Nor do I even really desire such an oucome. My point is that rapid changes can happen fast.

The point you are missing is that it is possible, as Layton did, to gain 10 points in vote percentage in as little as 2 weeks. 10 points in this election would be a win. In fact 5 points might even win, depending on how it splits assuming the Abacus numbers are right.

Layton started at 20% of the popular vote. Now is the time that voters start paying attention.

Debater

Rapid changes can happen, yes, but NDP surges in Ontario during elections are rare.  That's just a historical fact.  The NDP has only won Ontario once, and that was nearly 25 years ago under a different leader who had the advantage of being a coalition partner with David Peterson, and who only won because of a vote-split.

Btw, the vote gain that Layton received came largely from Québec and predominantly from the Francophone community which means that it swung a large number of seats rapidly over a large geographcial expanse in a short period of time.  So I'm just trying to point out that one has to be careful not to overlay Quebec voting patterns onto Ontario politics.  The reality is totally different for the NDP in Ontario.  In fact, to use your own example, look at how few seats the NDP picked up in Ontario in that same election compared to Quebec.

Btw, like you I do not necessarily desire a Liberal win in this election.  I'd kind of like Hudak to be the one saddled with the burdens of running Ontario. Wink

Rokossovsky

You seem to be missing my point. My point is that changes can happen fast. Your assertion that a party needs to be 1st or 2nd at this point of the game in order to win government is wrong. Not going to bother with the rest of your statement.

You are just making up arguments to support what you want to belive.

 

NorthReport

There is nothing confusing about the polls

It is just that there are Liberal connected pollsters and there are independent pollsters.

Losers though often try to muddy the waters.

Go figure, eh!

Nothing new in confusing Ontario polls

The polls may be in disagreement, but Ontario has been indecisive in the run-up to an election before.

 

NorthReport

Abacus - Chairperson - Bruce Anderson - Laughing

 

Best Premier

May 22 / Ipsos Reid

Andrea Horwath 38%

Kathleen Wynne 32%

Tim Hudak 30%

---------------

A couple of pollsters missing from the mix, are Angus Reid / Vision Critical and Environics.

Although not current, Environics' most recent Ontario polls are at the end.

Updated

Popular Vote

Date / Pollster / PCs / Libs / NDP / Connections

2011 / GE / 35% / 38% / 23%

Abacus / May 26 / 32% / 34% / 25% / Bruce Anderson Chairman - Check out his Lberal connections  Laughing

May 26 / EKOS / 30% / 36% / 20% / IRV / Liberal - Disregard

May 23 / EKOS / 30% / 36% / 20% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

May 22 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Independent / Bricker / Reliable

May 21 / Forum / 34% / 41% / 20% / Disregard

May 20 / Abacus / 36% / 33% / 26% / Bruce Anderson, Chairperson     

May 15 / EKOS / 30% / 37% / 21% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

May 14 / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 30% / 24%  Independant / Bricker / Reliable

May 13 / Forum / 33% / 38% / 21% / Liberal or Flake / Bozinoff / Disregard

May 8 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Independant / Bricker / Reliable

May 6 / Innov / 33% / 39% / 20% / Liberal  / Lyle / Disregard

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 31% / 25% /  PCs / 

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 33% / 22% /   / Liberal or Flake/ Bozinoff / Disregard

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / PCs / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Independant / Bricker / Reliable

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Right-Wing / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

----------------------------

Jun '12 / Environics / 37% / 25% / 28%

Apr '12 / Environics / 37% / 27% / 30%

----------------------

 

 

Debater

Losers?

And accusing every pollster other than Ipsos-Reid of being biased is bizarre.  How can you say there are 'Liberal connected pollsters' and 'independent pollsters'?  Are there no 'Conservative connected pollsters'?

Your list on this thread showing a long list of pollsters with all of them except Ipsos-Reid scratched off has no credibility.  Particularly considering the Conservative connections Darrell Bricker has.  How come he doesn't feature on your list of biased pollsters?  Apart from being Harper's favourite pollster (that should tell you something) he wrote the book 'The Big Shift' with fellow Conservative sympathizer John Ibbitson predicting decades of Conservative dominance in Canada.

I don't know any political anslyst in this election who says only Ipsos-Reid is credible and that all the other pollsters (Abacus, EKOS, Forum, etc.) should be ignored.  Polling wizard Nate Silver would tell you the more polls & data you have to enter into a model, the better it is likely to be.

mark_alfred

Any poll predicting the NDP will win less than 107 seats is biased.

Northern-54

Polling companies want to give their many clients information that they can use or want to hear.  There are pollsters which have a better track record than others in appearing to be unbiassed.  But, it is the nature of businesses to want to maximize their profits and polling companies are no different than other businesses.  Polling companies do have the advantage of only having the final result to compare to their latest prediction.  There is an incentive for them then to get closer to the true result as election day approaches.  This is essentially what Nate Silver espouses.  I do like to look at all polls and keep in mind who is publishing them.  If it is an EKOS poll, I assume that the Liberal/Green vote is over-represented and the Conservative/NDP vote under-estimated.  I came to the conclusion during the last federal election that NANOS experiments a lot with push polls at the start of campaigns -- in addition to giving a slightly skewed view of the election race, it also provides their clients with information that can be used in the campaign.  I view Ipsos, Ipsos Reid, Harris and Nanos as right-leaning pollsters.  I view EKOS as a Liberal-pollster in the broadest sense of the word.  I trust Environics the most but nearer the end of elections like Forum and Abacus.  The last polls of the campaign by any pollster are trustworthy.  When I see a polling company do two polls in the last view days of an election, I distrust the former one.

NorthReport

Thanks for this N54

Unfotrtunately "herding" is the name of the game for some of our pollsters, that is why some of the present polls don't necessarily mean much. 

Nate Silver Admits Pollsters Correct Methods Days Before Election

Quote:
Nate Silver of the New York Timeswrites: "Our method of evaluating pollsters has typically involved looking at all the polls that a firm conducted over the final three weeks of the campaign, rather than its very last poll alone. The reason for this is that some polling firms may engage in "herding" toward the end of the campaign, changing their methods and assumptions such that their results are more in line with those of other polling firms."

And to suggest that the Liberals are not involved  in "herding"is like suggesting that the following never too place:

Link

I wonder how many, all together, of the pollsters are doing these kind of sleazy tactics on behalf the Liberals.

It may well be many more that we even supsect.

Some Liberals doth protesteth too much me thinks. Laughing

 

Northern-54 wrote:

Polling companies want to give their many clients information that they can use or want to hear.  There are pollsters which have a better track record than others in appearing to be unbiassed.  But, it is the nature of businesses to want to maximize their profits and polling companies are no different than other businesses.  Polling companies do have the advantage of only having the final result to compare to their latest prediction.  There is an incentive for them then to get closer to the true result as election day approaches.  This is essentially what Nate Silver espouses.  I do like to look at all polls and keep in mind who is publishing them.  If it is an EKOS poll, I assume that the Liberal/Green vote is over-represented and the Conservative/NDP vote under-estimated.  I came to the conclusion during the last federal election that NANOS experiments a lot with push polls at the start of campaigns -- in addition to giving a slightly skewed view of the election race, it also provides their clients with information that can be used in the campaign.  I view Ipsos, Ipsos Reid, Harris and Nanos as right-leaning pollsters.  I view EKOS as a Liberal-pollster in the broadest sense of the word.  I trust Environics the most but nearer the end of elections like Forum and Abacus.  The last polls of the campaign by any pollster are trustworthy.  When I see a polling company do two polls in the last view days of an election, I distrust the former one.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

If the ONDP base is in revolt, it's not showing up in this poll:

  • Andrea Horwath continues to have the best leadership evaluation among eligible voters.  Her net impression is +10, compared with  -6 for Kathleen Wynne and -21 for Tim Hudak.
  • While prominent NDP members and supporters may have expressed frustration with the NDP, there doesn’t seem to be much hostility among the broader NDP base.  Among the core NDP support group, 72% have a positive impression of Andrea Horwath compared to 2% who have a negative impression.

 

NorthReport

Exactly.

Forum Research surveys increasingly blur the line between polling and trolling

But a 50-50 chance of getting it right may remain good enough for any candidate or party — as long as they are in the lead before the ballots are counted.

http://o.canada.com/news/forum-research-rob-ford-brandon-souris

NorthReport

Similarities abound with Forum's prediction for a 29% Liberal victory in that recent Manitoba by-election. (The Cons won)

Liberal candidate holds 29-point lead in Brandon-Souris byelection: poll

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Liberal-candidate-holds-29-point-...

What a pile!  This is just the usual Liberal Toronto Star orchestrated political nonsense we have come to expect.

Quote:
Of the 32 per cent polled who saw all or part of the debate, 40 per cent felt Wynne won while 20 per cent thought Horwath was the victor and 20 per cent weren’t sure.

http://www.ourwindsor.ca/news-story/4543622-poll-suggests-tories-far-beh...

 

josh

NR in the federal polling thread on a new Forum poll:

"Appears that the NDP is picking up steam and have narrowed the gap against the Liberals by 6% as we approach by-election time."

Always funny how you pick and choose.

NorthReport

This certainly runs contrary to what some of the manipulators -er- pollsters and aggregators are saying these days.

Voters taking a serious look at NDP

"A lot of people are saying I am tired of the Liberals, they are saying I am scared of (PC leader Tim) Hudak, so I am going to look at the NDP this time."

 

 

nicky

I'm not sure how much stock to put in this.

Ipsos has suveyed Twitter mentions for the various parties.

Over the past week Conservative mentions have fallen from 62 to 44 %, the liberals have risen from 25 to 34 and the NDP from 12 to 22%

The Conservtive tweets are overwhelmingly negative - 65 to 8% with the rest neutral

Liberals: postive 18 negative 39

NDP: 30 % postive 30% negative.

 

http://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6515

 

Debater

According to NR, Ipsos is the only pollster with any credibility in Canada.  Every other pollster must be discarded (unless it's good for the NDP). Wink

 

So for example, I'm sure NR will discount today's new Federal Forum poll showing a 3% increase for the NDP? Laughing  Forum is a biased Liberal pollster, afterall.

josh

No he cited it in the federal polling thread. And didn't respond when I called him on it.

NorthReport

nicky,

So interest in the NDP has risen the most of all 3 parties.

Another positive sign that Andrea is continuing to surprise and is connecting with voters of Ontario.

nicky wrote:

I'm not sure how much stock to put in this.

Ipsos has suveyed Twitter mentions for the various parties.

Over the past week Conservative mentions have fallen from 62 to 44 %, the liberals have risen from 25 to 34 and the NDP from 12 to 22%

The Conservtive tweets are overwhelmingly negative - 65 to 8% with the rest neutral

Liberals: postive 18 negative 39

NDP: 30 % postive 30% negative.

 

http://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6515

 

Debater

josh wrote:
No he cited it in the federal polling thread. And didn't respond when I called him on it.

I haven't been to the Federal polling thread yet, but surely North Report wouldn't have cited a Forum Poll?  They are a biased, pro-Liberal and untrustworthy organization. Surprised

And yes, NR tends to just ignore posts that contradict his logic.

josh
Debater

So the 'pro-Liberal' FORUM poll is showing a large Liberal drop in the Ontario election, huh?  Maybe they are actually a Conservative pollster who like to raise Liberal numbers (eg. like the Brandon-Souris poll) and then drop them in order to make the Liberals look like they've lost support?

Anyway, what's interesting about this latest poll (and I'm sure we've got 100 more polls to come!) is that it shows the Liberals & PC's in a Tie now, with the NDP also losing ground.  The updated seat projection at 308 shows the NDP losing a lot of seats and going all the way down to 15 seats.  Looks like most of those NDP seats are lost to the PC's.

LIB - 49

PC - 43

NDP - 15

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/05/liberals-drop-in-new-poll.html

NorthReport

It's interesting to observe those who count their chickens before they are hatched.

In spite of all the dirty trick going on, the latest Ipsos Reid poll is a good news poll for the NDP.

The Liberals not so much. 

The story is in the fine print

But Likely Turnout Shows Motivated PC Voters (41%) Delivering Big at the Ballot Box over Anemic Liberal Voters (29%) and Growing NDP (25%)

Cons - 41% +5%

NDP - 25%, Up 2%

Libs - 29%, Down 5%

But the Potential Turnout Vote at the Ballot Box is Where the Grits are in Serious Trouble…

Quote:
While the Liberals have gained and the NDP have softened on the popular vote, the data reveal that it is mostly non-committed, non-voters who are switching back and forth between the two parties. The Tories continue to have the most motivated voters, while Liberal supporters are least motivated.

Among the 51% of Ontarians who say that ‘nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote’ on June 12, the Tories receive 41% of the vote (up 5 points compared to overall figures), while the Liberals sink to 29% (down 5 points). The NDP strengthen to 25% (up 2 points), while support for other parties, including the Green Party, softens to 4% (down 3 points). The vote numbers among likely voters have remained remarkably consistent over the last four weeks (see second chart below).

In comparison to the 2011 election campaign, this would put the PCs at 41% compared to the 35.4% they received, the Liberals at 29% compared to the 37.7% they received and the NDP at 25% up from the 22.7% they received.

Further, PC voters are most likely to say that they are ‘absolutely certain’ (58%) that they will stick with the PCs and not change their mind, while only 47% of NDP voters and 38% of Liberal voters say the same.

Interestingly, Liberal voters are also less likely (44%) to say they are paying ‘close attention’ to the Ontario Election campaign than NDP (55%) and PC (55%) voters are.

In short, as the Liberals gain in support in the popular vote, the proportion of their supporters who are likely to show up on Election Day and won’t change their mind beforehand decreases. The Liberal turnout vote, at this stage leading into the debate, is mostly anemic, unmotivated and disengaged.

 

 

 

 

NorthReport

Best Premier

May 22 / Ipsos Reid

Andrea Horwath 38%

Kathleen Wynne 32%

Tim Hudak 30%

---------------

A couple of pollsters missing from the mix, are Angus Reid / Vision Critical and Environics.

Although not current, Environics' most recent Ontario polls are at the end.

 

Popular Vote*

Date / Pollster / PCs / Libs / NDP / Connections

2011 / GE / 35% / 38% / 23%

Abacus / May 26 / 32% / 34% / 25% / Bruce Anderson Chairman - Check out his Lberal connections  

May 29 / Forum / 36% / 20% / 36% - Absorb with a healthy dose of salt 

May 26 / EKOS / 30% / 36% / 20% / IRV / Liberal - Disregard

May 23 / EKOS / 30% / 36% / 20% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

May 22 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Independent / Bricker / Reliable

May 21 / Forum / 34% / 41% / 20% / Disregard

May 20 / Abacus / 36% / 33% / 26% / Bruce Anderson, Chairperson     

May 15 / EKOS / 30% / 37% / 21% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

May 14 / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 30% / 24%  Independant / Bricker / Reliable

May 13 / Forum / 33% / 38% / 21% / Liberal or Flake / Bozinoff / Disregard

May 8 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Independant / Bricker / Reliable

May 6 / Innov / 33% / 39% / 20% / Liberal  / Lyle / Disregard

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 31% / 25% /  PCs / 

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 33% / 22% /   / Liberal or Flake/ Bozinoff / Disregard

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / PCs / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Independant / Bricker / Reliable

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Right-Wing / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

----------------------------

Jun '12 / Environics / 37% / 25% / 28%

Apr '12 / Environics / 37% / 27% / 30%

----------------------

* switched over to likely voters May 29

 

 

Debater

My. my, what do we have here?  Tonight's new Ipsos-Reid poll (North Report's favourite pollster) shows the Liberals gaining ground, and the NDP dropping.

Since North Report has said Ipsos-Reid is the most reliable pollster and more trustworthy than all the others, I guess we should take these numbers as the correct ones. Smile

CTV Toronto: Ontario election race tightens up as Liberals gain 3 points: poll

IPSOS REID

DECIDED VOTERS

PC - 36% (up 1%)

LIB - 34% (up 3%)

NDP 23% (down 5%)

UNDECIDED 17%

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bo1_ConIgAAxvG7.jpg

https://twitter.com/CTVToronto/status/472173219429228544

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Any chance we coukd just make North and Debater squabbling roommates on a new CTV reality show?

Orangutan

Debater wrote:

So the 'pro-Liberal' FORUM poll is showing a large Liberal drop in the Ontario election, huh?  Maybe they are actually a Conservative pollster who like to raise Liberal numbers (eg. like the Brandon-Souris poll) and then drop them in order to make the Liberals look like they've lost support?

Anyway, what's interesting about this latest poll (and I'm sure we've got 100 more polls to come!) is that it shows the Liberals & PC's in a Tie now, with the NDP also losing ground.  The updated seat projection at 308 shows the NDP losing a lot of seats and going all the way down to 15 seats.  Looks like most of those NDP seats are lost to the PC's.

LIB - 49

PC - 43

NDP - 15

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/05/liberals-drop-in-new-poll.html

 

The folks at Forum should publish a book on how to skew polls.  NDP in third in Northern Ontario, contradictory to all other polling firms.  What bullshit!  

Debater

Orangutan wrote:

Debater wrote:

So the 'pro-Liberal' FORUM poll is showing a large Liberal drop in the Ontario election, huh?  Maybe they are actually a Conservative pollster who like to raise Liberal numbers (eg. like the Brandon-Souris poll) and then drop them in order to make the Liberals look like they've lost support?

Anyway, what's interesting about this latest poll (and I'm sure we've got 100 more polls to come!) is that it shows the Liberals & PC's in a Tie now, with the NDP also losing ground.  The updated seat projection at 308 shows the NDP losing a lot of seats and going all the way down to 15 seats.  Looks like most of those NDP seats are lost to the PC's.

LIB - 49

PC - 43

NDP - 15

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/05/liberals-drop-in-new-poll.html

 

The folks at Forum should publish a book on how to skew polls.  NDP in third in Northern Ontario, contradictory to all other polling firms.  What bullshit!  

Actually, other polls show a drop in NDP support in Northern Ontario as well.  The last EKOS poll, for example.  And I think today's new Ipsos poll.  But I agree with you that while the NDP has declined, it has not done so as much as Forum is saying.

Debater

Ken Burch wrote:

Any chance we coukd just make North and Debater squabbling roommates on a new CTV reality show?

The difference is that I don't have a favourite pollster or a bias in favour of one firm over another, and I don't tell people they can only trust the word of Ipsos and not any of the others.  I report all the numbers and let people decide for themselves.

And I refer to objective analysts like Eric Grenier & his polling model - I don't hold myself up as an expert in polls.

 

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Anyway, here's tonight's CTV/Ipsos Reid poll:

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Liberals catching up to Progressive Conservatives at expense of NDP: poll

Thursday, May 29, 2014 

The Liberals appear to be gaining support from Ontario voters and are swiftly catching up to the Progressive Conservatives, a new poll shows.

The survey, conducted by Ipsos Reid for CTV News and CP24 between May 26 and May 29, shows a two-point gap between Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives, who are currently leading in the polls, and Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals. The Andrea Horwath-led NDP seems to have lost the momentum they gained last week, dropping by five points.

According to the poll, if an election were to be held tomorrow:

  • The Progressive Conservatives would receive 36 per cent support (+1)
  • The Liberals would receive 34 per cent support (+3)
  • The NDP would receive 23 per cent support (-5)
  • Other parties would receive 7 per cent (+1)

Seventeen per cent of voters remain undecided.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/liberals-catching-up-to-progressive-conse...

NorthReport

Ipsos Reid released a poll today which is a good news poll for the NDP - the key to try to get past all the hype and the noise that is always swirling around during election time. Take the time to reead the fine print.

Remember it is the likelyhood of voting as opposed to who a voter supports which is the key component of the poll.

But Likely Turnout Shows Motivated PC Voters (41%) Delivering Big at the Ballot Box over Anemic Liberal Voters (29%) and Growing NDP (25%)

Cons - 41%, Up 5%

Libs - 29%, Down 5%

NdP - 25%, Up 2%

Quote:

But the Potential Turnout Vote at the Ballot Box is Where the Grits are in Serious Trouble…

While the Liberals have gained and the NDP have softened on the popular vote, the data reveal that it is mostly non-committed, non-voters who are switching back and forth between the two parties. The Tories continue to have the most motivated voters, while Liberal supporters are least motivated.

Among the 51% of Ontarians who say that ‘nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote’ on June 12, the Tories receive 41% of the vote (up 5 points compared to overall figures), while the Liberals sink to 29% (down 5 points). The NDP strengthen to 25% (up 2 points), while support for other parties, including the Green Party, softens to 4% (down 3 points). The vote numbers among likely voters have remained remarkably consistent over the last four weeks (see second chart below).

In comparison to the 2011 election campaign, this would put the PCs at 41% compared to the 35.4% they received, the Liberals at 29% compared to the 37.7% they received and the NDP at 25% up from the 22.7% they received.

Further, PC voters are most likely to say that they are ‘absolutely certain’ (58%) that they will stick with the PCs and not change their mind, while only 47% of NDP voters and 38% of Liberal voters say the same.

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Best Premier

Date / Pollster / Tim Hudak / Andrea Horwath / Kathleeen Wynne

May 22 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / 38% / 32%

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A couple of pollsters missing from the mix, are Angus Reid / Vision Critical and Environics.

Although not current, Environics' most recent Ontario polls are at the end.

 

Popular Vote*

Date / Pollster / PCs / Libs / NDP / Connections

2011 / GE / 35% / 38% / 23%

May 29 / Ipsos Reid / 41%, Up 5% / 25%, Up 2% / 29%, Down 5%  - Reliable 

May 29 / Forum / 36% / 20% / 36% - Consume with a healthy dose of salt 

Abacus / May 26 / 32% / 34% / 25% / Bruce Anderson Chairman - Check out his Lberal connections

May 26 / EKOS / 30% / 36% / 20% / IRV / Liberal - Disregard

May 23 / EKOS / 30% / 36% / 20% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

May 22 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Independent / Bricker / Reliable

May 21 / Forum / 34% / 41% / 20% / Disregard

May 20 / Abacus / 36% / 33% / 26% / Bruce Anderson, Chairperson     

May 15 / EKOS / 30% / 37% / 21% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

May 14 / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 30% / 24%  Independant / Bricker / Reliable

May 13 / Forum / 33% / 38% / 21% / Liberal or Flake / Bozinoff / Disregard

May 8 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Independant / Bricker / Reliable

May 6 / Innov / 33% / 39% / 20% / Liberal  / Lyle / Disregard

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 31% / 25% /  PCs / 

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 33% / 22% /   / Liberal or Flake/ Bozinoff / Disregard

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / PCs / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Independant / Bricker / Reliable

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Right-Wing / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

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Jun '12 / Environics / 37% / 25% / 28%

Apr '12 / Environics / 37% / 27% / 30%

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* switched over to likely voters when available May 29

 

NorthReport

Seeing as only about 50% of eligible voters vote, I'll take probable voters as opposed to decided voters anyday.

Polls Show Positives for All Parties

Quote:
As for the Horwath’s NDP, their turnout vote is up from their 22.7% in the 2011 election to 25%.

To give more credence to this and the numbers that follow, those who say they will definitely turnout to vote is at 51%–almost exactly the provincial turnout rate in the 2011 campaign (49.2%). This number is then cross-tabulated among decided voters (the popular vote) to yield the adjusted and crucial turnout vote among likely voters.

 

Debater

Tired of trying to make sense of Ontario election polls? Ignore them, say experts Laughing

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May 30 2014

TORONTO - Veteran pollsters have a word of advice for Ontario voters getting seasick from riding the shifting tides of the province's election survey results: Ignore them, they're probably wrong anyway.

At least 14 polls have been released since Premier Kathleen Wynne dissolved the legislature at the beginning of the month, and there's no consensus yet on what the result might be on June 12.

One day a pollster reports Tim Hudak's Conservatives are poised to form a majority government. The next day, a different pollster is out with numbers suggesting the Liberals may be re-elected.

Seasoned pundits observing the campaign from the sidelines say the numbers flooding the headlines are inherently flawed and of limited value to the discerning voter.

Polls commissioned by mainstream media outlets share few traits in common, they said, adding firms use different methodologies, questions and sample sizes to obtain their results.

The one quality the polls do share, however, is a focus on surface questions that don't tell the full story of what drives voters to the ballot box and don't offer an accurate picture of what will happen once they get there, the pundits said.

 

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http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/05/30/tired-of-trying-to-make-sens...

 

mark_alfred

Thanks NR.  That was interesting -- the difference between decided and probable.  Something I had not previously considered.

NorthReport

Whenever a poll gets published, try to ignore the noise, the mainly usless commentary and hype of the mainstream press, and always read the fine print. Do an analysis yourself of each pollster. Are their questions balanced and as neutral as possble, or does the pollster have an agenda. Ask yourself why is Ipsos Reid making such a huge fact of the importance of Probable voters as opposed to Decided voters.

Oracle's poll has been added to the mix but once again, if only 50% of eligible voters vote, as what happened in 2011, then focus in on the Probable voters, as opposed to Decided voters if you want to be closer to the actual election results. 

Take a look at some of the so-called  "neutral" questions in this poll.

What is a pollster trying to do when they are only asking about two parties in the race?

http://huffstrategy.com/MediaManager/release/OraclePoll-Research-Inc-Env...

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Question:

What is the significance of a "Decided Voter"  if they don't go out to vote?  

Answer: Not much

But Likely Turnout Shows Motivated PC Voters (41%) Delivering Big at the Ballot Box over Anemic Liberal Voters (29%) and Growing NDP (25%)

Cons - 41%, Up 5%

Libs - 29%, Down 5%

NdP - 25%, Up 2%

Quote:

But the Potential Turnout Vote at the Ballot Box is Where the Grits are in Serious Trouble…

While the Liberals have gained and the NDP have softened on the popular vote, the data reveal that it is mostly non-committed, non-voters who are switching back and forth between the two parties. The Tories continue to have the most motivated voters, while Liberal supporters are least motivated.

Among the 51% of Ontarians who say that ‘nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote’ on June 12, the Tories receive 41% of the vote (up 5 points compared to overall figures), while the Liberals sink to 29% (down 5 points). The NDP strengthen to 25% (up 2 points), while support for other parties, including the Green Party, softens to 4% (down 3 points). The vote numbers among likely voters have remained remarkably consistent over the last four weeks (see second chart below).

In comparison to the 2011 election campaign, this would put the PCs at 41% compared to the 35.4% they received, the Liberals at 29% compared to the 37.7% they received and the NDP at 25% up from the 22.7% they received.

Further, PC voters are most likely to say that they are ‘absolutely certain’ (58%) that they will stick with the PCs and not change their mind, while only 47% of NDP voters and 38% of Liberal voters say the same.

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Best Premier

Date / Pollster / Tim Hudak / Andrea Horwath / Kathleeen Wynne

May 22 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / 38% / 32%

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A couple of pollsters missing from the mix, are Angus Reid / Vision Critical and Environics.

Although not current, Environics' most recent Ontario polls are at the end.

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Popular Vote (Probable or Likely voters as opposed to Decided voters when available as of May 29)

Date / Pollster / PCs / NDP / Libs / Connections

Oct 6 '11 / GE / 36% / 23% / 38%

May 29 / Ipsos Reid / 41%, Up 5% /25%, Up 2% / 29%, Down 5% / Online  / Reliable (Ont Gov't Pollster) 

May 27 / Oracle / 36% / 25% / 32% / Telephone / Take lots of salt

May 27 / Forum / 36% / 20% / 36% / IVR / Take lots of salt 

May 24 / Abacus / 32% / 25% / 34% / Online / Take lots of salt

May 23 / EKOS / 30% / 20% / 36% / IVR / Take lots of salt 

May 21 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 28% / 31% / Online 

May 20 / Forum / 34% / 20% / 41% / IVR / Take lots of salt

May 16 / Abacus / 36% / 26% / 33% / Online / Bruce Anderson, Chairperson     

May 15 / EKOS / 30% / 21% / 37% / IVR / Take lots of salt

May 14 / Ipsos Reid / 39% / 24% / 30% / Online / 

May 12 / Forum / 35% / 21% / 38% / IVR / Bozinoff / Take salt

May 9 / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 28% / 31% / Online / Bricker 

May 6 / Innovative / 33% / 20% / 2039% / Online / Take the box of salt

May 6 / Innovative / 33% / 24% / 39% / Telephone / Tale the box of salt

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 25% / 31% /  PCs / Telephone / 

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 22% / 35% /  IVR / Bozinoff / Take a healthy dose of salt

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / PCs / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Independant / Bricker / Reliable

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Right-Wing / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

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Jun '12 / Environics / 37% / 25% / 28%

Apr '12 / Environics / 37% / 27% / 30%

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* switched over to likely voters when available May 29

 

NorthReport

mark_alfred,

Take a look at the support for Likely voters here following the often inaccurate Popular vote forecasts, and which are frequently out there just to deceive, con, manipulate and sway voters.

Andrea is very much in the game and could become Premier


Likely Voters

2014

Date / Pollster / PCs / NDP / Libs

May 29 / Ipsos Reid / 41%, NC / 25%, Down 1% / 29%, Down 1%

May 24 / Abacus / 33% / 24% / 36% / Take salt

May 21 / Ipsos Reid / 41%, Down 2% / 26%, Up 4% / 30%, Down 1% 

May 16 / Abacus / 36% / 25% / 33% / Take salt

May 14 / Ipsos Reid / 43%, Up 1% / 22%, Down 5% / 31%, Up 3%

May 9 / Ipsos Reid / 42% / 27% / 28%


mark_alfred

Yes, a lot depends upon people's reaction to the debate and upon how effective the vote is pulled on election day.  It could get interesting.  That the NDP remains over 20% is very good.  A migration from Liberal to NDP is possible, along with a pickup of some Con voters if Hudak creeps people out further in the debate.  No wonder the Star is relentlessly attacking the NDP.  They are far from insignificant.

Debater

How is it 'good' that the NDP remains over 20%?  The only person that is 'good' for is Tim Hudak.  The NDP does not have enough concentration of votes to get enough seats to win.  It's the same situation at the Federal level where Mulcair's NDP is splitting the vote by being at 25% - the person that helps the most is Harper.

The Toronto Star endorsed the NDP in the 2011 Federal Election, so your argument that they are anti-NDP is false.

mark_alfred

Re. the Star:  Uh, Debater, this is 2014, not 2011.  What was then and what is now are two different things.  And yes, it's good for both the Libs and Cons to have the NDP be only in the 20% level.  But, hopefully, they'll grow and overtake both of the pro-privatization and pro-corporate parties.  It could happen.  As Layton said, don't ever let them tell you it can't be done.

Debater

Ontario & Québec are very different.  Unionist made a good point about this on the other Ontario thread.

The reason Mulcair & Horwath are both in 3rd in Ontario is because the NDP is trying to use the same strategy it used in Québec on a province which has a totally different voting population.

Jacob Two-Two

Here we go. That NDP is so rude! Why won't they just step out of the way and usher us into office like they're supposed to, darn it! They're splittting the vote! Splitting what vote? Most NDP voters would never vote for the hideous, corrupt, lying waste of space that you call the Liberal party. You are displaying exactly what everyone hates about the Liberals: The fact that you feel entitled to votes that you have never earned. You crooks can waste billions from the public purse, be covered in corruption like slick sweat, and show nothing but contempt for the electorate, and you STILL have the gall to tell people that they have to bend over and take it or someone even worse will get in. Pitiful. Try giving the public a reason to actually vote for you rather than your sad, cynical scare tactics. You epitomise the worst kind of politics there is.

NorthReport

The NDP has 25% of Likely voters compared to 29% for the Liberals according to Ipso Reid.

There is little distance between them so before you know it the NDP could be in second and closing in on the PCs.

 

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