Ontario provincial by-elections, 2016

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ctrl190
Ontario provincial by-elections, 2016

Three Ontario by-elections are expected in the next 6 month.

In Scarborough Rouge River, all major parties have selected candidates. Not long ago, Ottawa-Vanier MPP stepped down as Attorney General and will resign her seat. And just a few days ago York West MPP and Seniors' Affairs minister Mario Sergio said he would relinquish his post immediately and resign his seat in the next three months.

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

As reference points, here are the vote breakdowns from each of those ridings for the last Ontario election:

(source: Wikipedia)

Scarborough- Rouge River:

Party
Candidate Votes % ∆%
Liberal Bas Balkissoon 16,095 38.71
New Democratic Neethan Shan 13,019 31.31
Progressive Conservative Raymond Cho 11,500 27.66
Green George B. Singh 571 1.37
None of the Above Amir Khan 398 0.96

 

Ottawa-Vanier

Liberal
Madeleine Meilleur 21,945 55.65
Progressive Conservative Martin Forget 8,799 22.31
New Democratic Hervé Ngamby 5,216 13.23
Green Dave Bagler 3,147 7.98
Libertarian Phillip Richard 330 .84

 

York West

Liberal
Mario Sergio 11,867 46.63
New Democratic Tom Rakocevic 10,007 39.32
Progressive Conservative Karlene Nation 2,778 10.92 
Green Keith Jarrett 418 1.64 
Freedom Kayla Baptiste 267 1.05 
Independent Wally Schwass 113 .44

 

From these numbers, we can draw two prelminary conclusions:

1) The ONDP has the potential to take Scarborough-Rouge River and York West, if they can find good candidates and craft a compelling message for the byelection campaigns:

2) VERY few people will vote for you if your name is "Wally Schwass".

ctrl190

Thanks for posting, Ken.

York West is an interesting case. It is one of the few Toronto ridings where Horwath's bread and butter populist platform connected with voters. Rakocevic performed even better than Ferreira in York South-Weston, which was considered a much more likely pick-up. 

robbie_dee

The ONDP ran an excellent candidate in Ottawa Vanier in the last federal election - Emilie Taman, a lawyer and daughter of former Supreme Court Justice Louise Arbour. Unfortunately trends were not in the party's favor and the Liberals took the riding by a landslide but she at least finished in second. Any chance she would take a shot at the provincial seat?

ctrl190

One reason behind York West's strong NDP showing could be that the two local city councillors, Anthony Peruzza and Maria Augimeri, both have NDP ties, and with that, lists of supporters and volunteers. The former less so -  Peruzza was an NDP MPP during the Rae years, but he's a bit wishy washy on council. Augimeri is one of the few progressive voice among the suburban members. 

adma

Actually, the component wards of York West are represented by Perruzza and *Giorgio Mammoliti*--ironically both Rae landslide NDP one-termers; but Mammoliti's *really* shifted away from old allegiances.  (Augimeri's in York Centre.)

johnpauljones

Augimeri's husband was an ndp mpp for close to 10 years before losing to I think liberal Joe Cordiano.  While some of the citycouncillors have good lists etc toronto city council being what it is you see right center and left voting for Peruzza and Augimeri simply because of the 95% plus incumbant being re-elected. The real issue for the next prov by-election in that neck of the woods will be the strength that the federal parties maintained after 2014 and can use today

Stockholm

robbie_dee wrote:

The ONDP ran an excellent candidate in Ottawa Vanier in the last federal election - Emilie Taman, a lawyer and daughter of former Supreme Court Justice Louise Arbour. Unfortunately trends were not in the party's favor and the Liberals took the riding by a landslide but she at least finished in second. Any chance she would take a shot at the provincial seat?

Keep in mind that as much as i hate to raise this - there will also be a federal byelection in the near future in Ottawa-Vanier. The incumbent MP Mauril Belanger has ALS and by all accounts is deterioratihng very rapidly.

toaster

Longtime Ontario NDP MPP Gilles Bisson's older brother. Claude Bisson, got the nomination for the ONDP in Ottawa-Vanier by-election.

ctrl190

Has their been any speculation about why Bas Balkissoon stepped down so suddenly, and why Wynne has stayed quiet?

ctrl190

You can add another by-election to the list. Earlier in the week Tim Hudak announced he'll step down which will make for a by-election in Niagara West-Glanbrook. 

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/08/09/tim-hudak-quitting-pr...

robbie_dee

Last minute gambit to juice turnout among the PC base in Scarborough Rouge River?

[url=http://www.torontosun.com/2016/08/26/pc-leader-patrick-brown-targets-sex... leader Patrick Brown targets sex ed curriculum (Sun)[/url]

Debater

Patrick Brown says promise to scrap Liberal sex-ed curriculum was a 'mistake'

Progressive Conservative leader reverses course on Ontario government's new sex-ed syllabus

Aug 29, 2016

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/patrick-brown-sex-ed-mistake-1.374...

robbie_dee

Whoops, what was that about? Somebody should get fired.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

I think it's a very smart move by Brown. The religious right are not strong enough to win elections in Ontario, and Brown has shown that he realizes that. He seems to understand that the Liberals are weak enough for him to defeat them, but only if the voters don't regard him as a right wing kook. So, he is willing to throw those who were largely responsible for him winning the leadership under the bus, as an operational necessity. Moves like this could make him Premier in 2018.

robbie_dee

Yes but Brown had already made that strategic decision months ago. Then all of a sudden he sends out a letter promising to repeal the new curriculum and seemingly shifting back to the right. Presumably to court socially conservative opinion in the Scarborough Rouge River riding during an important byelection. If he didn't think that letter would get publicized he is stupid. 

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

I didn't know that he had announced earlier that he wouldn't be changing the new sex ed curriculum. That puts a different light on the situation.

Debater

By changing his mind back & forth, he risks offending both groups -- the social conservatives & the ordinary voters.

Evangelical leader Charles McVety is angry with Brown and called this move “deceitful”.

And even Tim Hudak says Brown risks looking "opportunistic" to voters by saying one thing for the by-election and another after that.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/08/30/patrick-brown-doing-d...

mark_alfred

Yeah.  It was a dumb move on his part.  Similar to Hudak promising (if I remember correctly) to undo the Rand formula, which he then retracted from.  Hudak suffered after that, and no doubt so too will Brown.

Debater

Reevely: Patrick Brown finds a way to make his sex-education mess worse

August 30, 2016

In just three days, Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown upset the progressive wing of his party and infuriated the conservative wing, razed his reputation for competence, and very possibly threw away a byelection win.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/reevely-patrick-brown-finds-a-w...

robbie_dee

[url=http://www.cp24.com/news/tory-and-liberal-candidates-in-close-race-in-sc... Tory and Liberal candidates in close race in Scarborough-Rouge River[/url]

Quote:
The Liberals and Tories are in a virtual tie with one day to go until residents cast their ballots in the Scarborough-Rouge River byelection, two separate polls have found.

Forum Research and Mainstreet asked potential voters who they plan to support in Thursday’s byelection and both polls revealed a particularly close race in the hotly-contested riding.

The Mainstreet poll of 578 eligible voters found that 35 per cent of respondents intend to vote for PC candidate Raymond Cho while 30 per cent say they will vote for Liberal candidate Piragal Thiru and 15 per cent say they will vote for NDP candidate Neethan Shan. The margin of error in the poll is 4.08 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, meaning Cho and Thiru are very close to being in a statistical tie. 

The Forum Research poll was even closer. That poll of 363 eligible voters found that Cho and Thiru both have the support of 36 per cent of respondents while Shan is a distant third with the support of 23 per cent of respondents.

Debater

So it looks like the PC's have a chance in the Scarborough-Rouge River by-election afterall.

It's the old dilemma for NDP voters -- do you vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives?

ctrl190

Disappointing to see Shan polling so low, especially compared to his support in 2014, where he received 31%

Fortunately, given the ethnocultural makeup of the riding, I don't suspect there will be much last minute NDP spillover to the Liberal camp. I find the "Anyone but Conservative" NDPer-turned-Grit trend is usually isolated to urban, downtown ridings, and to a lesser extent, communities with high union rates.

Debater

I think you're correct about that, ctrl190.

But is that a good thing?

That might end up benefiting the PC's.

Badriya

robbie_dee wrote:

The ONDP ran an excellent candidate in Ottawa Vanier in the last federal election - Emilie Taman, a lawyer and daughter of former Supreme Court Justice Louise Arbour. Unfortunately trends were not in the party's favor and the Liberals took the riding by a landslide but she at least finished in second. Any chance she would take a shot at the provincial seat?

I don't wish to speak for Mme Taman, but the federal riding is now vacant after Mauril Bélanger's recent death, so she may wish to bide her time.  I suspect Mathieu Fleury, a very well respected councillor, will run for Bélanger's seat.  

Debater

Yes, Mathieu Fleury is one of several names being mentioned who may run for Bélanger's seat.

This recent article mentions some other names that are being discreetly mentioned in Liberal circles:

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-droit/politique/politique-federale/201608/22/0...

adma

ctrl190 wrote:

Disappointing to see Shan polling so low, especially compared to his support in 2014, where he received 31%

Fortunately, given the ethnocultural makeup of the riding, I don't suspect there will be much last minute NDP spillover to the Liberal camp. I find the "Anyone but Conservative" NDPer-turned-Grit trend is usually isolated to urban, downtown ridings, and to a lesser extent, communities with high union rates.

 

For the record, federally speaking, Rathika in Scarborough North was 2nd place in the advance + special polls in 2015 with 25-26% of the vote; she finished in third with 22%.

Debater

By-election Results for Scarborough—Rouge River

Available after 9 P.M. :

http://www.elections.on.ca/en.html

Debater

Polling hours extended for Poll 19 in the Scarborough—Rouge River by-election to 9:30 P.M. (Eastern Standard Time).

https://www3.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/ElectoralDistrict/en

Debater

3 polls reporting out of 234 polls

LIB 34.48 %

NDP 33.33 %

PC 24.14 %

Debater

8 polls out of 234

PC 39.61 %

LIB 29.34 %

NDP 25.43 %

Debater

16 polls out of 234

PC 42.47 %

LIB 29.10 %

NDP 21.18 %

Debater

25 polls out of 234

PC 40.58 %

LIB 28.28 %

NDP 25.25 %

Debater

34 polls out of 234

PC 39.12 %

LIB 29.88 %

NDP 26.14 %

Debater

41 polls out of 234

PC 39.51 %

LIB 29.27 %

NDP 26.51 %

Debater

53 polls out of 234

PC 37.15 %

LIB 31.01 %

NDP 27.59 %

Debater

56 polls out of 234

PC 36.56 %

LIB 30.90 %

NDP 28.15 %

Debater

66 polls out of 234

PC 37.77 %

LIB 31.24 %

NDP 26.53 %

Debater

75 polls out of 234

PC 38.23 % (751 vote lead)

LIB 30.67 %

NDP 26.45 %

Debater

91 polls out of 234

PC 38.27 % (924 vote lead)

LIB 30.17 %

NDP 26.95 %

Debater

115 polls out of 234

PC 39.35 % (1,295 vote lead)

LIB 29.95 %

NDP 25.83 %

sherpa-finn

Looks like Raymond Cho and the PCs have grabbed this one from the Libs. With turnout around 16%, yikes.  

Any idea why the NDP seems to have been unable to pull a bigger proportion of its core vote there? August by-elections are won or lost with organization. 

Anyhow, nice as always to see John Turmel back in the electoral fray, this time representing the Pauper Party of Ontario. Their killer slogan: "we want no cops in gambling, sex or drugs or rock and roll, we want no usury on loans, pay cash or time, no dole."   Twelve votes so far, but still a 100+polls yet to count. This could be his night. 

Debater

138 polls out of 234

PC 38.97 % (1,526 vote lead)

LIB 29.36 %

NDP 27.03 %

Debater

I agree, sherpa-finn.

The PC's picked a good candidate in Raymond Cho.  He has high name-recognition as a councillor and already has an organization.

I'm surprised that Wynne didn't push for a higher-profile Liberal candidate.  (Maybe the Liberals now wish they had chosen Rathika afterall?)

Debater

157 polls out of 234

PC 39.50 % (1,795 vote lead)

LIB 29.23 %

NDP 26.57 %

sherpa-finn

sherpa-finn wrote:

Debater wrote:

The PC's picked a good candidate in Raymond Cho.  He has high name-recognition as a councillor and already has an organization.

I remember Cho from when he was a New Democrat, back in the 1980s. He seems to have migrated rightward over the years, - then a Liberal (and Independent Liberal) and now a PC. Wonder if that same organization/following migrated along with him, over the years. 

sherpa-finn

* Double post *

Debater

171 polls out of 234

PC 39.45 % (1,925 vote lead)

LIB 29.24 %

NDP 26.53 %

Debater

Yes, Cho is an unusual candidate.

He's also 80 years old now, which is an unusual age to run for Parliament for the first time!

robbie_dee

Debater wrote:

I agree, sherpa-finn.

The PC's picked a good candidate in Raymond Cho.  He has high name-recognition as a councillor and already has an organization.


This is also a victory for campaign manager Doug Ford. Do you think we will see him run himself n York West, or is he holding out for a bigger opportunity (run for mayor again, or fed Con leader).

Debater

200 polls out of 234

PC 39.28 % (2,201 vote lead)

LIB 29.21 %

NDP 26.91 %

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