Ontario Riding of Windsor-Tecumseh By-Election

Good start for Horwath-led NDP as that Liberal majority becomes more elusive with each passing day

Forum Research poll:

NDP - 42%

Libs - 32%

Cons - 19%

Grn - 2%

NorthReport wrote:

Good start for Horwath-led NDP as that Liberal majority becomes more elusive with each passing day

Forum Research poll:

NDP - 42%

Libs - 32%

Cons - 19%

Grn - 2%

Not to be Debater about it, but that same poll offered the "what if Pupatello were running" question, and the results were 44-31-18-3 for Pupatello.  (Which may all be moot now, anyway.)

I'm thinking that with Buzz gone, long gone and a different leader, and also the Libs removing collective bargaining rights that the CAW members would be more inclined to support the NDP who voted against anti democratic legislation, and going down the path of the "right to work" state.

And blogger, Blunt Objects,  also suggests, like I thought, that the NDP actually stands a good chance in London West

 

By-election Outlook

While a PC win is not impossible, it doesn't necessarily look likely. Tim Hudak's party isn't going too well in polling, even if they're in first place most of the time; most polls have shown them underperforming the 35% they earned in 2011. If Hudak's party was polling better, I would actually be inclined to say they're the prohibitive favourites - but if it comes down to a Lib-PC fight, I'd place my bets on the Liberals.

Current Rolling Average for London West
34% Lib, 34% NDP, 27% PC, 4% Green

Innovative Jan. 27-29 Poll
37% Lib, 33% NDP, 25% PC, 4% Green

However, with the current upswing for the New Democrats in southwestern Ontario, they're the ones who could upset us! While the PCs haven't done as well in the region, the NDP have come up and their rise could threaten the Liberals in London West, especially in a by-election setting. The only reason we maintain the numbers we do is because of Bentley's strong performance in the riding; how much of that support is a personal vote for him, we don't really know. We could see the Liberals at a big disadvantage, or we could maintain steady support. Hard to know this far out, but we're going to have an interesting set of by-elections to be sure.

janfromthebruce wrote:

I'm thinking that with Buzz gone, long gone and a different leader, and also the Libs removing collective bargaining rights that the CAW members would be more inclined to support the NDP who voted against anti democratic legislation, and going down the path of the "right to work" state.

And blogger, Blunt Objects,  also suggests, like I thought, that the NDP actually stands a good chance in London West

 

By-election Outlook

While a PC win is not impossible, it doesn't necessarily look likely. Tim Hudak's party isn't going too well in polling, even if they're in first place most of the time; most polls have shown them underperforming the 35% they earned in 2011. If Hudak's party was polling better, I would actually be inclined to say they're the prohibitive favourites - but if it comes down to a Lib-PC fight, I'd place my bets on the Liberals.

Current Rolling Average for London West
34% Lib, 34% NDP, 27% PC, 4% Green

Innovative Jan. 27-29 Poll
37% Lib, 33% NDP, 25% PC, 4% Green

However, with the current upswing for the New Democrats in southwestern Ontario, they're the ones who could upset us! While the PCs haven't done as well in the region, the NDP have come up and their rise could threaten the Liberals in London West, especially in a by-election setting. The only reason we maintain the numbers we do is because of Bentley's strong performance in the riding; how much of that support is a personal vote for him, we don't really know. We could see the Liberals at a big disadvantage, or we could maintain steady support. Hard to know this far out, but we're going to have an interesting set of by-elections to be sure.

'Set of by-elections'?

To which seats are you referring to, jan?

 

NorthReport wrote:

The ONt NDP sure seem like they are on fire with Andrea. Finally the Bob Rae stench that has stuck to the Ont NDP for so long, is starting to wear off. Sweet!

NDP to 'work like hell' for Windsor-Tecumseh seat

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath wouldn't say who will run in the riding but said there is lots of interest in the vacant seat

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/story/2013/02/12/wdr-ndp-andrea-ho...

If Wynne is crazy enough to call a by-election, the NDP would be equally nuts to parachute a candidate into this riding.

Federally, Malcolm Allen was an "outsider" when first elected in Welland (i.e. he served on council in Pelham, which is just outside the riding's present boundaries)