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Ontario Riding of Windsor-Tecumseh By-Election

NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

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NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Good start for Horwath-led NDP as that Liberal majority becomes more elusive with each passing day

Forum Research poll:

NDP - 42%

Libs - 32%

Cons - 19%

Grn - 2%


autoworker
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Joined: Dec 21 2008
NorthReport wrote:

Good start for Horwath-led NDP as that Liberal majority becomes more elusive with each passing day

Forum Research poll:

NDP - 42%

Libs - 32%

Cons - 19%

Grn - 2%

I doubt there'll be by-elections, unless Wynne passes a budget. Anyway, she has six months to call them, if her government doesn't fall in the meantime.

adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

NorthReport wrote:

Good start for Horwath-led NDP as that Liberal majority becomes more elusive with each passing day

Forum Research poll:

NDP - 42%

Libs - 32%

Cons - 19%

Grn - 2%

Not to be Debater about it, but that same poll offered the "what if Pupatello were running" question, and the results were 44-31-18-3 for Pupatello.  (Which may all be moot now, anyway.)


scott16
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Joined: Oct 15 2011

Forum Research poll:

NDP - 42%

Libs - 32%

Cons - 19%

Grn - 2%

is this Windsor-Tecumseh or province wide?


autoworker
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Joined: Dec 21 2008
adma wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Good start for Horwath-led NDP as that Liberal majority becomes more elusive with each passing day

Forum Research poll:

NDP - 42%

Libs - 32%

Cons - 19%

Grn - 2%

Not to be Debater about it, but that same poll offered the "what if Pupatello were running" question, and the results were 44-31-18-3 for Pupatello.  (Which may all be moot now, anyway.)

Pupatello is very popular in this neck of the woods. It wouldn't surprise me if she and Duncan run federally in 2015.

NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

All these ifs, ands, or buts.

Right now the NDP has a commanding lead in the riding.  Smile


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

And they only used the previous candidate as how she would do against that candidate. It could well be that a much more prominent NDP runs for the nomination in the riding.

Federally, it is held by Joe Comartin, M P since 2000. He won in 2011 with almost 50% of the vote, and incidentily the Liberals came 3rd, after the Conservatives.

New Democratic Joe Comartin 22,235 49.92 +1.22 $72,370
Conservative Denise Ghanam 14,945 33.55 +9.63 –
Liberal Irek Kusmierczyk 5,764 12.94 -8.02 –
Green Kyle Prestanski 1,354 3.04 -3.36

Considering that they didn't quite make 13% of vote, and they would be up against a very popular NDP MP, I doubt they would stand a chance.

A civil litigation lawyer based in Windsor, Ontario, Comartin enjoyed strong support from local union members when he ran for a seat in the House of Commons, but narrowly lost in the 1997 general election and in a 1999 by-election.

I'm thinking that the union members, aka CAW would not be switch hitting federally for a corporate Liberal MP, in which they support scab labour. Just sayin.


adma
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NorthReport wrote:

All these ifs, ands, or buts.

Right now the NDP has a commanding lead in the riding.  Smile

Though even that can be blown (cf. Helmi Charif, 2011, next door)

And all of that's interesting to consider: in 2011, prognosticators were saying that the NDP would "inevitably" take Pupatello's open seat, while Duncan was safe--yet the NDP did better vs Duncan than vs Pupatello's successor...


autoworker
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Joined: Dec 21 2008
It's not axiomatic that CAW members would vote against Pupatello or Duncan, federally, since many voted for them provincially. Also, does anyone remember the CAW jacket that Buzz Hargrove famously gave to Paul Martin (Windsor's favourite son)? Duncan has already been singing the praises of St. Justin, whose coattails seem to be growing longer, as his coronation draws nearer. In the meantime, as it stands, I'd say the NDP, without Pupatello in the running, would likely win this riding in a provincial election.

janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

I'm thinking that with Buzz gone, long gone and a different leader, and also the Libs removing collective bargaining rights that the CAW members would be more inclined to support the NDP who voted against anti democratic legislation, and going down the path of the "right to work" state.

And blogger, Blunt Objects,  also suggests, like I thought, that the NDP actually stands a good chance in London West

 

By-election Outlook

While a PC win is not impossible, it doesn't necessarily look likely. Tim Hudak's party isn't going too well in polling, even if they're in first place most of the time; most polls have shown them underperforming the 35% they earned in 2011. If Hudak's party was polling better, I would actually be inclined to say they're the prohibitive favourites - but if it comes down to a Lib-PC fight, I'd place my bets on the Liberals.

Current Rolling Average for London West
34% Lib, 34% NDP, 27% PC, 4% Green

Innovative Jan. 27-29 Poll
37% Lib, 33% NDP, 25% PC, 4% Green

However, with the current upswing for the New Democrats in southwestern Ontario, they're the ones who could upset us! While the PCs haven't done as well in the region, the NDP have come up and their rise could threaten the Liberals in London West, especially in a by-election setting. The only reason we maintain the numbers we do is because of Bentley's strong performance in the riding; how much of that support is a personal vote for him, we don't really know. We could see the Liberals at a big disadvantage, or we could maintain steady support. Hard to know this far out, but we're going to have an interesting set of by-elections to be sure.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

janfromthebruce wrote:

I'm thinking that with Buzz gone, long gone and a different leader, and also the Libs removing collective bargaining rights that the CAW members would be more inclined to support the NDP who voted against anti democratic legislation, and going down the path of the "right to work" state.

And blogger, Blunt Objects,  also suggests, like I thought, that the NDP actually stands a good chance in London West

 

By-election Outlook

While a PC win is not impossible, it doesn't necessarily look likely. Tim Hudak's party isn't going too well in polling, even if they're in first place most of the time; most polls have shown them underperforming the 35% they earned in 2011. If Hudak's party was polling better, I would actually be inclined to say they're the prohibitive favourites - but if it comes down to a Lib-PC fight, I'd place my bets on the Liberals.

Current Rolling Average for London West
34% Lib, 34% NDP, 27% PC, 4% Green

Innovative Jan. 27-29 Poll
37% Lib, 33% NDP, 25% PC, 4% Green

However, with the current upswing for the New Democrats in southwestern Ontario, they're the ones who could upset us! While the PCs haven't done as well in the region, the NDP have come up and their rise could threaten the Liberals in London West, especially in a by-election setting. The only reason we maintain the numbers we do is because of Bentley's strong performance in the riding; how much of that support is a personal vote for him, we don't really know. We could see the Liberals at a big disadvantage, or we could maintain steady support. Hard to know this far out, but we're going to have an interesting set of by-elections to be sure.

'Set of by-elections'?

To which seats are you referring to, jan?

 


autoworker
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Joined: Dec 21 2008
Wynne has six months to call by-elections. I doubt that her government will last that long. So, there's no point in strengthening her opposition's hand, while providing them with additional momentum. Until then, the Liberals will attempt to consolidate its base in and around Toronto.

David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

So, it's believed that McGinty and Bentley are going to resign as M.P.P.'s?

 


autoworker
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Joined: Dec 21 2008
David Young wrote:

So, it's believed that McGinty and Bentley are going to resign as M.P.P.'s?

 

Bentley has announced that he will, February 14th. McGuinty has indicated that he'll continue as an MPP, at least until an election.

janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

David Young wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

I'm thinking that with Buzz gone, long gone and a different leader, and also the Libs removing collective bargaining rights that the CAW members would be more inclined to support the NDP who voted against anti democratic legislation, and going down the path of the "right to work" state.

And blogger, Blunt Objects,  also suggests, like I thought, that the NDP actually stands a good chance in London West

 

By-election Outlook

While a PC win is not impossible, it doesn't necessarily look likely. Tim Hudak's party isn't going too well in polling, even if they're in first place most of the time; most polls have shown them underperforming the 35% they earned in 2011. If Hudak's party was polling better, I would actually be inclined to say they're the prohibitive favourites - but if it comes down to a Lib-PC fight, I'd place my bets on the Liberals.

Current Rolling Average for London West
34% Lib, 34% NDP, 27% PC, 4% Green

Innovative Jan. 27-29 Poll
37% Lib, 33% NDP, 25% PC, 4% Green

However, with the current upswing for the New Democrats in southwestern Ontario, they're the ones who could upset us! While the PCs haven't done as well in the region, the NDP have come up and their rise could threaten the Liberals in London West, especially in a by-election setting. The only reason we maintain the numbers we do is because of Bentley's strong performance in the riding; how much of that support is a personal vote for him, we don't really know. We could see the Liberals at a big disadvantage, or we could maintain steady support. Hard to know this far out, but we're going to have an interesting set of by-elections to be sure.

'Set of by-elections'?

To which seats are you referring to, jan?

 

Sorry about that David - The seat in Windsor area, and the seat in London West, which Bentley held. Both can be won by the NDP.


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

And concerning the Windsor riding the odds now greatly increase for an NDP win.

Kathleen Wynne picked Charles Sousa as finance minister after leadership runner-up Sandra Pupatello spurned overtures to return to politics, the Star has learned.

Kathleen Wynne picks Charles Sousa as finance minister after Sandra Pupatello declines


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

NDP would win riding of Windsor-Tecumseh in by-election: Poll

 

http://blogs.windsorstar.com/2013/02/11/new-poll-suggests-ndp-would-take...


autoworker
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Joined: Dec 21 2008
NorthReport wrote:

NDP would win riding of Windsor-Tecumseh in by-election: Poll

 

http://blogs.windsorstar.com/2013/02/11/new-poll-suggests-ndp-would-take...

...presuming there will be one before the next general election.

NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

The ONt NDP sure seem like they are on fire with Andrea. Finally the Bob Rae stench that has stuck to the Ont NDP for so long, is starting to wear off. Sweet!

NDP to 'work like hell' for Windsor-Tecumseh seat

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath wouldn't say who will run in the riding but said there is lots of interest in the vacant seat

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/story/2013/02/12/wdr-ndp-andrea-ho...


autoworker
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Joined: Dec 21 2008
NorthReport wrote:

The ONt NDP sure seem like they are on fire with Andrea. Finally the Bob Rae stench that has stuck to the Ont NDP for so long, is starting to wear off. Sweet!

NDP to 'work like hell' for Windsor-Tecumseh seat

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath wouldn't say who will run in the riding but said there is lots of interest in the vacant seat

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/story/2013/02/12/wdr-ndp-andrea-ho...

If Wynne is crazy enough to call a by-election, the NDP would be equally nuts to parachute a candidate into this riding.

janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

autoworker wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

The ONt NDP sure seem like they are on fire with Andrea. Finally the Bob Rae stench that has stuck to the Ont NDP for so long, is starting to wear off. Sweet!

NDP to 'work like hell' for Windsor-Tecumseh seat

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath wouldn't say who will run in the riding but said there is lots of interest in the vacant seat

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/story/2013/02/12/wdr-ndp-andrea-ho...

If Wynne is crazy enough to call a by-election, the NDP would be equally nuts to parachute a candidate into this riding.

Reading the article, Horwath clearly states it is up to the riding association.

 

Horwath, while in Windsor touring the Unemployed Help Centre, said she has already talked to the local NDP riding association about potential candidates.

"We’re well into the process of a candidate search,” Horwath said.

She said it will ultimately be up to the riding association to decide on a candidate.

“There’s a lot of interest and not surprisingly,” Horwath said.


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

Meanwhile, in London West

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/02/13/liberals_in_dogfight_t...

Forum Research: PC 34, Lib 30, NDP 28, GP 4--and that's generic party choice, one presumes.  Another byelection on NDP radar, folks.


autoworker
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Joined: Dec 21 2008
@janfromthebruce: Fair enough, but there's nothing to preclude the local riding association from approving an outsider. It's the electors who get the final say.

adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

Federally, Malcolm Allen was an "outsider" when first elected in Welland (i.e. he served on council in Pelham, which is just outside the riding's present boundaries)


autoworker
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Joined: Dec 21 2008
adma wrote:

Federally, Malcolm Allen was an "outsider" when first elected in Welland (i.e. he served on council in Pelham, which is just outside the riding's present boundaries)

I was thinking of someone with little or no local connection. For that matter, Paul Martin, or Buzz Hargrove, could claim one.

Doug
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Joined: Apr 17 2001

NorthReport wrote:

The ONt NDP sure seem like they are on fire with Andrea. Finally the Bob Rae stench that has stuck to the Ont NDP for so long, is starting to wear off. Sweet!

 

But it certainly could be reattached if Horwath isn't clear about and successful in defending NDP economic and budget plans. I worry that if polling shows the NDP likely to form government during the next campaign, some supporters might have second thoughts.


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Agreed!


NorthReport
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Windsor City Councillor Percy Hatfield seeks NDP nomination in Windsor-Tecumseh

 

 

http://windsor.ctvnews.ca/hatfield-seeks-ndp-nomination-in-windsor-tecum...


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