Ontatio Polling - started January 30, 2015

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NorthReport
Ontatio Polling - started January 30, 2015

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NorthReport

So who's is the more accurate pollster for Sudbury?

Oracle or Forum?

Aristotleded24

NorthReport wrote:
So who's is the more accurate pollster for Sudbury?

Oracle or Forum?

The term "accurate pollster" seems to be an oxymoron these days, particularly in by-elections where it can be much harder to contact key demographics within the riding.

Unionist

Where the fuck is Ontatio?

 

josh

Unionist wrote:

Where the fuck is Ontatio?

 

A little west of Fellatio.

swallow

It's a little ways on the other side of the Decatie.

onlinediscountanvils

josh wrote:
Unionist wrote:

Where the fuck is Ontatio?

 

A little west of Fellatio.

*resists making a "place to stand, a place to grow" joke*

NorthReport

Last polls how the Ontario NDP at 19 per cent holding Steady

NorthReport

So in the last Ontario election using a Nate Silver style analysis to reduce and/or prevent herding we got the following results:

Actual Results L - 39%, P - 31%, N - 24%

Pollster / Liberals / Dif / PCs / Dif / NDP / Dif / Total Percentile Difference

Abacus / 35% / 4% / 33% / 2% / 26% / 24% / 2% / 8% - most accurate

Forum / 40% / 1% / 36% / 5% / 19% / 5% / 11% - second most accurate

Ipsos Reid / 33% / 6% / 34% / 3% / 27% / 24% / 3% / 12% - close third  

EKOS / 31% / 8% / 33% /  2% / 20% / 4% / 14% - dead last of these 4 pollsters

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Looking for a bite of data to do a similiar-type analysis for the recent Feb 5th by-election - can anyone supply the missing figures or corrections - and thanks:

Feb 5th, 2015 By-Election Results

Libs  - %?,  NDP - %?, PC - %?, Ind - %?

Polls from January 15, 2015 to February 4, 2015 only:

Pollster / Dtae / LIbs / NDP / PCs / Ind

Forum / Jan / 40% / 42% / 13% / 1%

Forum / Jan / 33% / 30% / 11% / 22%

Forum  / Feb / 34% / 36% / 14% / 11%

Mainstreet / ? / 37% / 32% / 13% /16%

Mainstreet / ? / 32% / 28% / 9% / 14%

Oracle / Jan / 44% / 26% / %? / %?

Oracle / Feb / 42% / 26% / 10% / 19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unionist

onlinediscountanvils wrote:

josh wrote:
Unionist wrote:

Where the fuck is Ontatio?

 

A little west of Fellatio.

*resists making a "place to stand, a place to grow" joke*

Groan!

Misfit Misfit's picture

BTW, my mother's sister was on the government committee that came up with that song.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Actually doesn't look like any of the pollsters were that accurate.

Sudbury Feb 5, 2015 By-Election Results:

L - 41%, N - 35%, I - 12%, PC - 7%

Now averaging the polling to help reduce and/or prevent herding:

Pollster / Libs / NDP / Ind / PCs/ Difference

Maintreet / 35% / 30% / 15% / 11% / 18%

Forum / 33% / 33% / 12% / 12% / 18%

Oracle / 42% / 26% / 20% / 10% / 21% 

 

NorthReport

Let's actually do an analysis of the polling, using the process to reduce or prevent "herding" for the 2014 Ontario election:

Election Results: L - 39%; PC - 31%; N - 24% 

It appears to show poor results for all, except one of the pollsters which confirms that it is almost impossible to be sure we are getting reasonably accurate polling from most pollsters when it comes to politics. 

Pollster / Libs / Dif / PCs / Dif / NDP / Dif / Total Difference

Angus Reid / 36% / 3% / 32% / 1% / 26% / 2% /  6% - not too shabby!

EKOS / 36% / 3% / 33% / 2% / 20% / 4%/  9%

Oracle / 34% / 5% / 36% / 5% / 25% / 1% / 11%

Forum / 40% / 1% / 36% / 5% / 19% / 5% / 11%

Abacus  / 35% / 4% / 38% / 7% / 26% / 2% / 13%

Ipsos Reid / 33% / 6% / 36% / 5% / 27% / 3% / 14%

 

Additional pollsters who released polls outside of the three week period prior to E-Day as follows:

Pollster / Date / Libs / Dif / PCs / Dif / NDP / Dif / Total Difference

Innovative  / May 6 '14 / 39% / 0% / 33% / 2% / 20% / 4% / 6%

Nanos / Apr 11 '14 / 36% / 3% / 36% / 5% / 22% / 2% / 10%

Campaign R / Sep 19 '13 / 36% / 3% / 32% / 1% / 22% / 2% / 6%


 

Stockholm

Actuallty the PCs would be up 8% since the election - they only got 31% on election day

NorthReport

I thought what was going on in the Sudbury by-election might be the beginning of the end for the Wynne Liberals, and I still do, as the PCs, even without a Leader, have now gained 15% on the Liberals since the 2014 election. 

Libs - 32%, Down 7%

PCs - 39%, Up 8% 

NDP - 21%, Down 3%

Progressive Conservatives lead Liberals in Ontario

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/240/progressive-conservatives-lead-li...

NorthReport

Thanks Stock

 

I thought what was going on in the Sudbury by-election might be the beginning of the end for the Wynne Liberals, and I still do, as the PCs, even without a Leader, have now gained 15% on the Liberals since the 2014 election. 

Libs - 32%, Down 7%

PCs - 39%, Up 8% 

NDP - 21%, Down 3%

Progressive Conservatives lead Liberals in Ontario

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/240/progressive-conservatives-lead-li...

 

ajaykumar

With Patrick Brown as PC Leader Ontatio liberals have nothing to worry about. 

NorthReport

 

 

I thought what was going on in the Sudbury by-election might be the beginning of the end for the Wynne Liberals, and I still do, as the PCs, even without a Leader, have now gained 15% on the Liberals since the 2014 election. 

Libs - 32%, Down 7%

PCs - 39%, Up 8% 

NDP - 21%, Down 3%

Progressive Conservatives lead Liberals in Ontario

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/240/progressive-conservatives-lead-li...

 

 

ajaykumar

NorthReport wrote:

 

 

I thought what was going on in the Sudbury by-election might be the beginning of the end for the Wynne Liberals, and I still do, as the PCs, even without a Leader, have now gained 15% on the Liberals since the 2014 election. 

Libs - 32%, Down 7%

PCs - 39%, Up 8% 

NDP - 21%, Down 3%

Progressive Conservatives lead Liberals in Ontario

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/240/progressive-conservatives-lead-li...

 

 

the election is 4 years away. Next election will be fought on Stop Patrick

NorthReport

Ontario Liberals losing votes to NDP, PCs in the lead: poll

PCs - 34%

NDP - 27%

Libs - 29%

 

Seat Projections:

PCs - 52 seats [3 short of majority)

NDP - 32 seats (Official Opposition)

Libs - 23 seats (third party status)

 

http://globalnews.ca/news/1910948/ontario-liberals-losing-votes-to-ndp-p...

NorthReport
nicky

I meant to post this here:

 

Normally the Toronto Star trumpets pro-Liberal Forum Research polling on its front page, notwithstanding Forum's dismal reputation as the least accurate pollster in Canada.

 

I looked in vain for some mention in the Star today of the party standings poll reflecting a Liberal slide. All I found was this:

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/03/30/ontario-poll-shows-hug...

 

Perhaps the Star has finally responded to criticisms that Forum is a junk pollster which always inflates Liberal numbers and for that reason refused to run it.

 

ajaykumar

Hahahahaha and a final haha. Polls like this were produced days before the Ontario election. We have a majority, and Patrick brown is becoming the PC leader. Plus, the sample size for forum poll was approx 800. But whatever makes the NDP happy.

Jacob Two-Two

Y'know, ajay, with you around I feel like I never have to slag the Liberals. Your comments are so nasty and trollish you do all the work for me. So thanks for that.

ajaykumar

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Y'know, ajay, with you around I feel like I never have to slag the Liberals. Your comments are so nasty and trollish you do all the work for me. So thanks for that.


You welcome and my comments are based on a combination of fact and reality.

Rokossovsky

You combine fact with reality?

Some facts aren't "real"?

Reality is sometimes unfactual?

I get it, a Liberal reality where it is possible that facts and reality don't accord. Reality being that the Liberals are the "natural party of power", except for the facts of the last ten years of Conservative governance.

Stephen Harper is working on being the logest serving Prime Minister in Canada. Fact!

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

I would hope that any Liberal would be able to pounce on what is to be the Ontario PC Party.

ajaykumar

Rokossovsky wrote:

You combine fact with reality?

Some facts aren't "real"?

Reality is sometimes unfactual?

I get it, a Liberal reality where it is possible that facts and reality don't accord. Reality being that the Liberals are the "natural party of power", except for the facts of the last ten years of Conservative governance.

Stephen Harper is working on being the logest serving Prime Minister in Canada. Fact!


Fact:NDP/ccf hasn't been in power for over 80 years
Fact: lpc is the only party that has existed since 1867!

nicky

AJ was the NDP actually in power before 1935?

Stockholm

ajaykumar wrote:
Hahahahaha and a final haha. Polls like this were produced days before the Ontario election.

Actually the polls by Forum during the Ontario election campaign consistently underestimated NDP and their final poll had the NDP under 20% and the NDP actually got 24%. The only time the Ontario NDP ever led in any poll in Ontario was in the fall of 2012 immediately after McGuinty quit in disgrace and proprogued for six months...

ajaykumar

nicky wrote:
AJ was the NDP actually in power before 1935?

I am too young to remember, but I bet ndp had satellite offices in lower canada in the 1700's . 

Jacob Two-Two

Oh ajay. The voice of reason as always. Please tell us more. I prefer your imaginary Canadian history to your imaginary Canadian politics.