Sudbury By-Election, 2015

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janfromthebruce

I don't know Nicky, perhaps sleazy?

New poll by Liberal friendly pollster Fourm.

With Sudbury by-election tomorrow, latest poll shows NDP Suzanne Shawbonquit leading Liberal Glenn Thibeault 36-33. Now that is within the margin of error.

Liberals, NDP neck and neck in Sudbury byelection, poll finds

Take note of headline in the Liberal friendly Torstar: although NDP is ahead Liberals get lead-in.

Article also soft peddles Wynnegate with no mention of latest court order for tapes.

Olivier has released tapes that he says show two Liberal operatives offered him a job in exchange for stepping aside quietly — an accusation denied by the Liberals and under investigation by Ontario Provincial Police and Elections Ontario.

And no link to listen to the tapes although they are all available online.

Other tidbits in article:

Ranked third in the poll is independent candidate Andrew Olivier, who ran for the Liberals in June but was rejected by Wynne this time. At 14-per-cent support, he’s down from 22 per cent last week.

Paula Peroni, running for the Progressive Conservatives, was at 11 per cent in the poll with the Green Party’s David Robinson at 6 per cent.

Anyway if the Liberal strategy is to try to smear Oliver with allegations of treachery and manipulation, it's backfiring. The mess of this byelection rests completely in Liberal pork barrel politics.

nicky

Good new but I wish it was a more authoritative poll than Forum.

FWIT, comparing the numbers to the last Forum poll released Jan 21:

Lib 33%  even

NDP  36%  plus 6

Olivier 14   Down 8

PC   11   even

It would seem that much of Olivier's support has bled to the NDP. Now that several polls show Olivier out of the running this trend may continue.

I have heard anecdotally that NDP polling shows a deadheat but with a lot more enthusiasm for the NDP than for Thibeault. This is largely fueled by fury at Thibeault's chicanery. They expect a low turnout with many Liberals staying home because of the smell.

But the race is still very much up in the air.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

nicky wrote:
If Debater uses the word "treachery" to describe Oliver I wonder how he would describe Thibeault, Wynne, Lougheed, Sorbara, .........?

I believe he'd describe them as "Liberals".

NorthReport

Go Andrea go!

Ciabatta2

Debater wrote:

The Liberals are not likely to forgive Olivier for his treachery in this mess - he's been almost as manipulative as Thibeault.  What sort of person secretly records phoone calls and then releases them to the press?

If Olivier had taken his lumps gracefully, he might have had a shot at running for the Federal nomination in Sudbury this year.  But he's burnt those bridges, too.

 

Of course, Olivier saying nothing would have been best for his Liberal career. (Although some of the "jobs" they "offered" him were pretty minor.  A job in the constit office?  Really? That in-itself shows how small-time they thought he was and I bet sealed his decision to release the info to the public.)

But beyond that, you've got it a bit backwards.

Olivier running doesn't hurt his Liberal relationships.  It potentially salvages them.

It allows Olivier to potentially win (and rejoin the Liberals as MPP at Queen's Park), or draw enough anti-Liberal votes away from the NDP to allow Thibeault to win.

What will be telling is if he rejoins the Liberals after all this.  If so, it is probably indicative that someone in Liberal HQ tapped him on the shoulder and told him "after all this, the only way back is to run."

 

NorthReport

Please Go Andrea go To Sudbury today and stay till Friday morning please, please

every single vote counts

Ciabatta2

I don't know, I've been involved in these one-off by-election situations and pretty much 80 percent of voters really hate seeing their community invaded by politicos when the parties have something in it for themselves only to have the community return to political backwater status the minute the whole ordeal is over.

Admitedly, this dislike extends more to governing parties (who send in loads of "political staff") but sometimes I don't think the parties know how annoying this all can be.

Robo

Debater wrote:

The Liberals are not likely to forgive Olivier for his treachery in this mess - he's been almost as manipulative as Thibeault.  What sort of person secretly records phoone calls and then releases them to the press?

What sort of person? How about the kind of person who is quadriplegic, and cannot just take notes.  Olivier has recorded his calls for years, which must include the time he spent as a Liberal candidate in 2014.  Of course, had Wynne's people in Toronto actually spoken to anyone locally about what they were doing - or heaven help us, let local people actually have a discussion with their former candidate -- I presume that they would have known that their former candidate recorded his calls as a routine practice.

And this is coming from someone who claims to never use personal attacks -- criticizing someone for a practice arising from accommodating his disability!

Yes, Debater, let's blame someone with limited dexterity and mobility for being "that kind of person".  (And before you tell me that I am taking your words out of context, please note (1) I routinely cite the words that you have actually used when responding to the offensive things that you write; and (2) you said in Post #275 in this thread that you "use your words carefully".  I think I have reached my limits in addressing the venom that you spread here and won't bother in the future.)

Debater

I wasn't criticising Olivier for being disabled.  I was criticising his practice of not telling people he was recording their phone calls (something I think he admitted in an interview he kept secret) and then going ahead and releasing them to the press in an act of revenge.  I understand this is a difficult situation, but all it has done is make the atmosphere more poisonous and damaged Olivier's prospects of a career.  Earlier in this thread I said I admired the good result he achieved last year and was hoping he would run Federally.  But this was not the way to handle it.

Debater

janfromthebruce wrote:

New poll by Liberal friendly pollster Fourm.

With Sudbury by-election tomorrow, latest poll shows NDP Suzanne Shawbonquit leading Liberal Glenn Thibeault 36-33. Now that is within the margin of error.

Forum is not really a Liberal friendly pollster.

The Sudbury polls by Forum have the Ontario Liberals LOWER than they are in Oracle.  It's Oracle that has the OLP ahead, so Forum is certainly not giving the Liberals good numbers in this by-election.

And Forum's by-election polls have caused a lot of trouble for the Liberals in the past - particularly in Brandon-Souris where their ridiculous poll showing the Liberals 30 points ahead probably caused more harm than good.  It may have motivated enough Conservatives to come out and cause the narrow 300 vote loss.

Debater

Here's a summary of the Sudbury polls by Eric Grenier.  Glenn Thibeault appears to be favoured, and the Oracle poll may be more accurate since it is a local pollster based in Northern Ontario which knows the area better.  But there are no guarantees, and it could be close either way.

---

Glenn Thibeault favoured in dramatic Sudbury byelection

Feb 04, 2015

Excerpt:

---

While the race is tight between Thibeault, Shawbonquit and Olivier, two polling methodologies are also facing off in the byelection.

Oraclepoll has conducted all of its surveys via telephone with live operators, whereas both Mainstreet and Forum have been using interactive voice response (IVR) for their polls.

On the face of it, Oraclepoll would seem to have the advantage. The firm is local to Sudbury, and it has been carrying out its polling over three or four days. This allows it to do callbacks, in which a polling firm attempts to reach people who did not pick up the phone when first contacted. The value of a local area code showing up on caller ID, as opposed to the Toronto-based Mainstreet and Forum, may not be insignificant in terms of response rates as well.

On the other hand, IVR technology makes it easier to amass larger samples. The sample in Mainstreet's latest poll was 882, compared to 400 for Oraclepoll. Forum's samples have also been larger, which reduces the margin of error. However, the consistency in Oraclepoll's findings suggests that sample size has not been much of an issue. 

In the end, we won't know which methodology will produce the better results until Thursday night.

---

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/glenn-thibeault-favoured-in-dramatic-sud...

Winston

Regardless of the results, Debater, we'll just have to wait and see whether Gerry Lougheed, Pat Sorbara and maybe even Kathleen Wynne end up in jail over this by-election. It seems that their alleged offenses may carry up to a 5-year prison term. With the OPP ratcheting up their investigation, it's not looking good for any of them.  

Debater

Keep in mind that the NDP & PC's asked the OPP to investigate.  They wanted to cause as much trouble for Wynne as they could.  They are working as hard as they can to make this scandal as bad as it can be.

nicky

I think you once said you were a lawyer debater or at least that you had some legal training.

Prima facie the Liberals, certainly Sorbara and Lougheed and perhaps others, offered Olivier a job or an appointment if he dropped out tof the race and supported Thibeault. That much is very clear on the tapes.

You should know that this is a likely violation of the provincial Elections Act and quite possibly of the Criminal Code.

The Liberals are the ones who have made this a "bad scandal", not the opposition parties.

You Liberals have to stop feeling entitled to you entitlements and recognize that the law applies to you too.

Winston

Debater wrote:

Keep in mind that the NDP & PC's asked the OPP to investigate.  They wanted to cause as much trouble for Wynne as they could.  They are working as hard as they can to make this scandal as bad as it can be.

Since you had trouble parsing the content of the G&M link I posted, Debater, I will make it clear for you.

And, following the request by the PCs and NDP, the OPP decided NOT to investigate further, since there was insufficient evidence to make a case. That was, until Olivier released his tapes. Now there is sufficient evidence of wrongdoing and the case is reopened. This current investigation has nothing whatsoever to do with the NDP or Tories.

PrairieDemocrat15

Debater wrote:

Keep in mind that the NDP & PC's asked the OPP to investigate.  They wanted to cause as much trouble for Wynne as they could.  They are working as hard as they can to make this scandal as bad as it can be.

 

Poor Liberals. The opposition is opposing them! Why won't they just let this criminal activity slide? I mean, its almost been a year since the Liberals were last investigated by the police!

nicky

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/02/04/robyn-urback-ontario-liberals-pr...

 

No matter the outcome of Thursday’s byelection in Sudbury, the it should go down as yet another debacle delivered by the Ontario Liberals. It has had everything a good political scandal should have: secret recordings, a political turncoat, bribery allegations, public denials and a police investigation. And throughout it all, Premier Kathleen Wynne has maintained the position that the Ontario Liberal Party did nothing wrong. Indeed, the fact Ms. Wynne appears to be sincere in that belief may be the foulest aspect of it all.

 

Nicely said. It really does sum up th Liberals. Even when they are caught breaking the law they act oblivios.

 

 

terrytowel

Andrew Olivier now says "Kathleen Wynne made no job offers"

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/kathleen-wynne-made-no-job-offers-...

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

If the Liberals didn't do the evil things in the first place, no one would be trying to make it more or less afterwards. Then the Liberals complain that they are being attacked for sleazy and possibly illegal activities. Poor Liberals!

Stockholm

terrytowel wrote:

Andrew Olivier now says "Kathleen Wynne made no job offers"

Yeah right, Wynne didn't personally try to bribe him with job offers - she just delegated the dirty work to her top political aid Pat Sorbara...she is just as guilty as Sorbara and this whole incident shows how corrupt to the core the Ontario Liberal Party is.

At the very least Sorbara should go to jail.

NorthReport

Repeat after me

Cbc does not support the liberals  

NorthReport

Repeat after me

Cbc does not support the liberals  

NorthReport

Repeat after me

Cbc does not support the liberals  

adma

In the event that the NDP wins, may I ask: can anyone think of any other First Nations MPPs over the years?  For some reason, I can't think of any...

terrytowel

adma wrote:

In the event that the NDP wins, may I ask: can anyone think of any other First Nations MPPs over the years?  For some reason, I can't think of any...

She would be the first, which is why the NDP is puishing so hard. And she is polling so high.

Robo

[url=http://www.mediaindigena.com/tim-fontaine/issues-and-politics/an-aborigi... web site[/url] indicates that there currently is no MPP in Ontario who is aboriginal, and that the only such MPP ever elected was a New Democrat from the class of 1990.  Only BC, Nova Scotia, and PEI have never elected MLAs of aboriginal ancestry.  Other than Saskatchewan and Manitoba, there have been very few elected in any province -- the territories have a better record.

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

Come on Olivier supporters, you can do your candidate proud by bringing down Thibeault.

Shawbonquit is now within 4%, almost tied, within the margin of error which is 3.38% (difference being 0.62%). 

Latest poll has Thibeault leading Shawbonquit 32%-28%

http://www.northernlife.ca/news/localNews/2015/02/03-mainstpoll.aspx

I'd rather she just win under her own steam but if not getting Oliver voters to switch would be the next best thing. If voters choose Thibeault then so be it but I'm not adverse to Shawbonquit winning.

Rokossovsky

NDP with slight lead over Liberals (36%-33%) in Sudbury according to Forum.

Quote:
Liberal candidate Glenn Thibeault, who quit Parliament to run for Premier Kathleen Wynne, has the support of 33 per cent of voters, while NDP candidate Suzanne Shawbonquit has 36 per cent, according to a Forum Research survey conducted Monday — a dead heat within the poll’s margin of error.

[Note: Torstar can not even bring themselves to say the NDP is in the lead, or, as is the standard, quote the leaders statistic first, before the runner up in the copy. For the Star, Liberals first -- always.]

Given the source of the data, it is at least safe to say that we know who the likely front runners are.

If true, it goes to show that a lot of those "undecideds" we saw in earlier polls, were probably trying to decide who would most likely beat Thiebault, and they have now figured out that Olivier is a long shot, even if they would have preferred him in spirit.

That is kind of sad. He is doing well as an independent (assuming Forums numbers are right) with 15% of the vote, but this too might dissipate a bit when the rubber hits the road.

Heard the Toronto Star Queens Park Bureau Chief, Robert Benzies, being interviewed by Matt Galloway on CBC, about the dirty scandals revolving around this election, and he sounded more like a defense attorney for Kathleen Wynne, than an investigative Reporter: Listen to this mouthpiece repeat the OLP talking points here, correcting himself saying that Lougheed is a Liberal Appointee (which he is, as he is appointed to the Sudbury police board by Wynne), and saying instead that he is an "activist", and calling the OPP investigation a "red herring" -- its worth listening to him grovel.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Robo wrote:

[url=http://www.mediaindigena.com/tim-fontaine/issues-and-politics/an-aborigi... web site[/url] indicates that there currently is no MPP in Ontario who is aboriginal, and that the only such MPP ever elected was a New Democrat from the class of 1990.  Only BC, Nova Scotia, and PEI have never elected MLAs of aboriginal ancestry.  Other than Saskatchewan and Manitoba, there have been very few elected in any province -- the territories have a better record.

Are you sure about that for BC?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Robo wrote:

[url=http://www.mediaindigena.com/tim-fontaine/issues-and-politics/an-aborigi... web site[/url] indicates that there currently is no MPP in Ontario who is aboriginal, and that the only such MPP ever elected was a New Democrat from the class of 1990.  Only BC, Nova Scotia, and PEI have never elected MLAs of aboriginal ancestry.  Other than Saskatchewan and Manitoba, there have been very few elected in any province -- the territories have a better record.

Are you sure about that for BC?

nicky

Frank Calder was elected an MLA for Atlin in the late 40s I beieve and served into the 70s.

adma

Robo wrote:

[url=http://www.mediaindigena.com/tim-fontaine/issues-and-politics/an-aborigi... web site[/url] indicates that there currently is no MPP in Ontario who is aboriginal, and that the only such MPP ever elected was a New Democrat from the class of 1990. 

Oh, yeah, forgot: Peter North.  Later ejected from caucus due to one of those silly Rae-era mini-"scandals", ran as an independent and won in 1995, and subsequently trying for various PC nominations and the like...

Centrist

Ken Burch wrote:

Robo wrote:

[url=http://www.mediaindigena.com/tim-fontaine/issues-and-politics/an-aborigi... web site[/url] indicates that there currently is no MPP in Ontario who is aboriginal, and that the only such MPP ever elected was a New Democrat from the class of 1990.  Only BC, Nova Scotia, and PEI have never elected MLAs of aboriginal ancestry.  Other than Saskatchewan and Manitoba, there have been very few elected in any province -- the territories have a better record.

Are you sure about that for BC?

Good question. Actually he is incorrect. The old riding of Atlin, sparsely populated in far NW BC had two FN's elected under the NDP banner - Frank Calder ('49 - '79) and Larry Guno ('86 - '91). 

 

Stockholm

Frank Calder was a CCF and then NDP BC MLA from Atlin in the 50s, 60s, 70s...he was a Nisga'a chief...and there may be others.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

In his last term, Calder crossed over to the Socreds, and stood as the Socred candidate in Atlin in '79...winning in '75 but losing by one vote in '79(he is said to have joked afterward that he lost because he'd gone on vacation with his wife at the end of the campaign and neither of them voted).

nicky
robbie_dee

If he loses tonight do you think Glen will try to run for the Liberals in the federal byelection or election this fall?

ajaykumar

Ajay is back and is predicting a NDP win in Sudbury. 

ajaykumar

My view is that Glenn Thibeault was probably trying to cross floor to Federal Liberals, but when the seat became vacant, he chose to become an MPP.

Hunky_Monkey

Ontario Liberals illegally tried to lure Sudbury byelection candidate Andrew Olivier into dropping out of a race with an offer of a job or appointment, an OPP document says.

The explosive allegation of criminal wrongdoing is contained in court documents sworn and filed by Det.-Const. Erin Thomas, of the OPP Anti Rackets Branch, and obtained by Sun Media Thursday, the same day as the Sudbury byelection.

Thomas said in the Information to Obtain (ITO), which has not been proven in court, that there are grounds to believe that a Criminal Code offence was committed — “the solicitation, negotiation in any manner or recommendation with respect to an appointment to an office in expectation of a direct or indirect reward, advantage or benefit.”

http://www.owensoundsuntimes.com/2015/02/05/liberals-behind-alleged-byel...

Aristotleded24

robbie_dee wrote:
If he loses tonight do you think Glen will try to run for the Liberals in the federal byelection or election this fall?

I'd love to see him try!

robbie_dee

[url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/police-allege-ontario-liber... Police Allege Ontario Liberals may have broken law with job offer in Sudbury (Globe & Mail)[/url]

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

robbie_dee wrote:

If he loses tonight do you think Glen will try to run for the Liberals in the federal byelection or election this fall?

That would depend on how badly he lost, and whether the Liberals would still see him as a "star candidate" if he did lose(since he would have blown a pretty sizeable lead in his own freaking home town, among voters who knew him better than anyone else).

You'd have to figure his lustre would be considerably dimmed, and that he would likely only be nominated in an unwinnable seat or only if the Liberals had suddenly experienced a catastrophic decline in support and were desperately seeking anyone anybody might have heard of simply to staunch the electoral bleeding.

So, most likely not.

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Do the polls close at 8, or at 9, btw?  

nicky

The Liberals and debater must be thanking their lucky stars that this headline came out only today.

http://www.thesudburystar.com/2015/02/05/grits-behind-alleged-bribe-opp?...

Hopefully it will still have an impact in shining a light on Liberal criminality and corruption.

nicky

Here is a direct quote from the affidavit the OPP swore to get the search warrant:

"..that there are grounds to believe that a Criminal Code offence was committed — the solicitation, negotiation in any manner or recommendation with respect to an appointment to an office in expectation of a direct or indirect reward, advantage or benefit.” -- OP

Comments, debater?

terrytowel

Two hours into the story on the Sudbury byelxn OPP ITO, and it's crickets from the TorStar Queens Park bureau & CBC. Ppl starting to notice.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Anyone have a link to the results?

adma

They'll be live here

http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/

Basement Dweller

I think polls close at 9pm. Should be a postive for the NDP.

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