Sudbury By-Election, 2015

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Debater

adma wrote:

They'll be live here

http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/

Here, to be precise: Wink

http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/welcome.jsp

Centrist

John Turmel is also running in this race? Man, this guy gets around! :)

Look forward to him running in BC sometime.

Debater

5 polls out of 238:

Thibeault - 49.0

Shabonquit - 28.2

Peroni - 14.1

Olivier - 6.0

Debater

Alice Funke is tweeting the results here:

https://twitter.com/punditsguide/with_replies

Centrist

NDP just pulled into lead!

Debater

Olivier is underperforming from what the polls said he would get.

Could be good news for the NDP.

ctrl190

Looks like it will be a long night. Go Suzanne!

Debater

Northern Life Live Feed:

Thibeault & Shawbonquit headquarters:

http://live.northernlife.ca/2015/02/05/watch-2015-sudbury-byelection.html

Basement Dweller

The Basement Dweller decision desk declares an NDP win at 9:26pm.

ctrl190

Olivier is polling below projections, as I expected. Get out the vote operations - particularly crucial in low turnout by-elections - require a party machinery. 

nicky

NDP up by 6% over Thibeault w 25 polls. Olivia has faded to about 11%. It seems some of his vote may have shifted to NDP. Long night ahead

Centrist

ctrl190 wrote:

Olivier is polling below projections, as I expected. Get out the vote operations - particularly crucial in low turnout by-elections - require a party machinery. 

Very true. I am wondering which polling stations have reported so far as well. Alberta reports each polling station as they come in. Wish everyone else would do same.

Misfit Misfit's picture

And it's Misty Meadow three lengths behind and closing in fast...

ctrl190

With just over a quarter of the polls reporting, Suzanne has a 6% lead. 

nicky

NDP numbers which are more complete than El On have NDP now up 2700 to 2300.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If this trend holds up, Suzanne will win with a larger plurality than Cimino's(though her vote share may be slightly smaller than his).

josh

Sid Ryan has more up to date numbers

https://mobile.twitter.com/SidRyan_OFL

ctrl190

Yeesh, polls are tightening. 

Debater

Basement Dweller wrote:

The Basement Dweller decision desk declares an NDP win at 9:26pm.

Way too early to predict.

Thibeault is not doing as well as predicted, but he's going to pull ahead in the next few polls.

Whether Thibeault's lead holds up until the end though remains to be seen.

Debater

Reports from Sudbury Liberal HQ now have Thibeault leading. (per Rob Silver).

On the ground reports are ahead of Elections Ontario website.

Basement Dweller

I stand behind my decision desk. It is based on solid sadistical analysis and sound sceintific principalia.

josh

If Sid Ryan's numbers are right, looks like Liberals have this.

ctrl190

josh wrote:
If Sid Ryan's numbers are right, looks like Liberals have this.

Sure looks like it yup.

Hunky_Monkey

Unbelievable.  Criminal activity on the part of the Liberals but they still manage to win?  

Pondering

I'm hoping the NDP pulls ahead again.

Debater

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Unbelievable.  Criminal activity on the part of the Liberals but they still manage to win?  

Nothing has been proven in court yet.

Although I agree that even though Wynne is likely to pull off a victory over Horwath (& Mulcair) tonight, there are going to be some reverberations for the OLP because of the way this was handled.

Charles

Not going to happen. Too big a lead for the criminals. As bad as politics is in the U.S. I find it less depressing than what is ocurring across Canada right now and I'm feeling glad to have left. 

Debater

Pondering wrote:

I'm hoping the NDP pulls ahead again.

How come?

Thibeault is ahead by about 1,000 votes.

I don't think Shawbonquit can catch him now.

Hunky_Monkey

I wonder if Wynne will still name him to cabinet.  Make it look all the more sleazy.  You know it was offered but with possible criminal charges...

Debater

I hope OLP has learned something from this.  They need to make sure they do everything above board when they ask a candidate to leave the race.

They should have just barred Olivier from running.  The leader has the right to bar any candidate.  There was no need to ask Olivier to step aside.

Horwath loses another seat, but Wynne will have some questions to answer herself in the days ahead.

Aristotleded24

Is there anybody on the ground who can answer what role, if any, that racism could have played in the result?

jjuares

If the report about a criminal investigation was released a week ago that may have had an effect. An investigation may mean that Wynne might be interviewed. For the Liberals this could be a case of winning the battle but losing the war.

Misfit Misfit's picture

I hope not. I think people know that the Liberals are in government and they stand to benefit by having an MPP on the government side. I also think the OPP could have acted sooner, and perhaps deliberately dragged their heals on this.

Misfit Misfit's picture

My post above was in reference to Aristotled24's post

Debater

As David Akin just said, this is also a slap in the face to Tom Mulcair.  He campaigned against Thibeault in Sudbury and yet the voters elected the man who walked out of his caucus.

Aristotleded24

Looking at the numbers, the Liberals appear to have held their vote from the general election (actually up slightly) and that the anti-Liberal vote split between Shawbonquit and Oliver. The Ontario PCs appear to have lost a great deal of ground from 2014.

Oh well, the NDP will win this one back in 3 years.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Debater, I doubt voters went to the polls in a provincial byelection with a federal party leader on their mind at all, and especially not with the purpose of slapping anyone's face.

Hunky_Monkey

Let Debater gloat.  Think he did the same when the Liberals won Winnipeg North five months before the 2011 election.

And yes, if this report was released even a few days ago, the result might have been different.  Oh well.

Debater

Aristotle, in fairness to the PC's, I don't think they bothered to put much effort into this.  And they are busy with their leadership race anyway.

Misfit, I didn't say this by-election was about Tom Mulcair.  I said that analysts are pointing out that he campaigned hard in Sudbury but once again it shows he has no coattails on the campaign trail.

Here's what David Akin posted a few minutes ago:

Also: @ThomasMulcair campaigned in #onpoli Sudbury. His opponents will remind him: he wears some of this:

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/563538884559380481

Aristotleded24

Misfit wrote:
I also think the OPP could have acted sooner, and perhaps deliberately dragged their heals on this.

I think perhaps the NDP's angry reaction in the absence of the OPP acting created an impression of "sour grapes" among the electorate.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Ari, it could be. It could also be that the MSM downplayed the seriousness of what transpired in the absence off the OPP doing their job expediently, and some were simply not fully aware.

Pondering

Debater wrote:

Pondering wrote:

I'm hoping the NDP pulls ahead again.

How come?

Thibeault is ahead by about 1,000 votes.

I don't think Shawbonquit can catch him now.

Because I don't like the way Wynne handled this and I think she needs to be checked. The Liberals were very fortunate that voters decided not to hold Wynne responsible for the corruption within the Liberal party. The Liberal party would still have a majority so it wouldn't reduce their power any. Shawbonquit didn't have as illustrious a background as Thibeault but she is a very credible candidate and both aboriginal and a woman. This matters, even if the impact is only symbolic due to the Liberal majority. Every aboriginal woman who wins an election encourages others to try and in small part redresses the wrong.

Hunky_Monkey

What impact did The Hair have in the Kitchener byelection?  Didn't the Liberals finish third? You would think someone of Trudeau's brillance and star power, leader or not, would have propelled the Liberals to a first place showing then.  Funny that.

 

ajaykumar

Mulcair campaigned in this riding, I recommend he campaigns in all 338 ridings, will help the liberals. Congragulations a former NDPer has won! 

Debater

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

What impact did The Hair have in the Kitchener byelection?  Didn't the Liberals finish third? You would think someone of Trudeau's brillance and star power, leader or not, would have propelled the Liberals to a first place showing then.  Funny that.

The Federal Liberals have increased their share of the vote in all 11 Federal by-elections that have taken place under Justin Trudeau and won back 2 seats.

And btw, you've mentioned Winnipeg North & the 2011 Election many times over the past couple years.  We know all about that.  But the 2011 Election was a unique event because of Jack Layton and a lot of other factors.  You can't assume the same thing is going to happen again in 2015.  So far the patterns are very different.  WN was not a Liberal win, anyway, it was a Kevin Lamoureux win.  Ignatieff lost ground in almost all the other by-elections under his leadership (and lost Vaughan).  By contrast, the Liberals have gained ground under Trudeau in all by-elections.  So do you see how the 2015 pattern is already different than the one in 2011?

Aristotleded24

Hunky_Monkey wrote:
Let Debater gloat.  Think he did the same when the Liberals won Winnipeg North five months before the 2011 election.

Would this be the same 2011 election where the Liberals went on to hold Winnipeg North?

Debater

232 Polls out of 238

Thibeault (OLP) 10,017 (41.0%)

Shawbonquit (ONDP) 8,713 (35.6%)

http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/welcome.jsp

nicky

We'll see where the criminal investigation leads. This may turn out to be a very expensive win for Wynne.

Hunky_Monkey

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Hunky_Monkey wrote:
Let Debater gloat.  Think he did the same when the Liberals won Winnipeg North five months before the 2011 election.

Would this be the same 2011 election where the Liberals went on to hold Winnipeg North?

Yes.  And same election where they lost 43 seats.

Yes, Debater, I brought it up before.  You can't tell what's going to happen in a general election based on byelection results.  And in this case, a provincial byelection would have almost zip to do with how the next federal election turns out.

Hunky_Monkey

And if you want to look at byelections before a general election, ask Adrian Dix or Andrea Horwath.  Though I know you're aware of that, Debater.  You're just being your typical Liberal self on here.  I should do like most do and just ignore you.

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