Sudbury By-Election, 2015

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Hunky_Monkey

nicky wrote:

We'll see where the criminal investigation leads. This may turn out to be a very expensive win for Wynne.

Agreed.  Sleaze always catches up to the Liberals.  And if people in her office get charged, it'll be a big blow to her image.

Aristotleded24

So what, if anything, does this by-election loss mean for Horwath's leadership?

NorthReport

The nastiness here is not necessary

When debater posts let it be

Silence often can be golden and can be the best response of all

Misfit Misfit's picture

North Report, Agreed.

terrytowel

NorthReport wrote:

The nastiness here is not necessary

When debater posts let it be

Silence often can be golden and can be the best response of all

I'm going to quote you on that NR

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

232 Polls out of 238

Thibeault (OLP) 10,017 (41.0%)

Shawbonquit (ONDP) 8,713 (35.6%)

http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/welcome.jsp

So the right-wing conned its way to a narrow win.

Depressing, but doesn't really mean that much.

Debater

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

And if you want to look at byelections before a general election, ask Adrian Dix or Andrea Horwath.  Though I know you're aware of that, Debater.  You're just being your typical Liberal self on here.  I should do like most do and just ignore you.

Those are provincial by-election results.  They don't necessarily reflect on an incumbent government.  True.  We all know that.

But what we're talking about is Federal by-election results between two Opposition parties.

It's very unusual to have the Official Opposition regularly placing behind the 3rd party in by-elections.

That definitely could say something about the next Federal election.

The other important point is that the by-election results at the Federal level actually have predicted the last couple of general elections:  Both Dion & Ignatieff had bad by-election results whereby they lost seats (Dion - Outremont, Ignatieff - Vaughan) and lost ground in many others.  That reflected the declining support of the Liberal Party going into 2008 & 2011.

By contrast, the Trudeau Liberals have gained seats and gained ground in every by-election under his leadership, which is a big contrast with the results under Dion & Ignatieff.  So we see a big difference going into 2015 from what we saw going into 2008 & 2011.

Does that explanation make what I was trying to say clearer?

takeitslowly

 

so disgusting..so turned off from  politics. I dont know if i am more turned off by the same poster(s) on this forum or by politics..lol. its a hard one.

Rokossovsky

NDP did a great job on this campaign and brought out the troops. Felled by chance.

Will be interesting to see the results of the OPP investigation.

Debater

It was interesting to see The Toronto Sun in bed wth the NDP in another by-election.

Last June we saw The Toronto Sun endorse Joe Cressy over Adam Vaughan in Trinity-Spadina in a desperate attempt to swing the by-election to the NDP since they know the Trudeau Liberals pose a greater threat to Harper.

Today we saw The Toronto Sun publicize the OPP investigation before the rest of the media in order to give the NDP an assist in Sudbury. NDPers were tweeting The Sun story on the OPP investigation throughout the day to influence tonight's vote.

Debater

Speaking of The Toronto Sun, here's their editorial on the Sudbury by-election results tonight:

Wynne’s tainted win bad news for NDP

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/02/05/wynnes-tainted-win-bad-news-for-ndp

Rokossovsky

Debater wrote:

It was interesting to see The Toronto Sun in bed wth the NDP in another by-election.

Tacky, and desperate sounding. Strange on the occassion of an Ontario by-election win for the Wynne government. One would think it would be champagne corks popping in response to the confirmation of Wynne's mandate to govern, and a sign that the Liberal brand is not entirely sullied in Ontario.

One would think this would all be cause for hope. Do you know something I don't?

Debater

Happens to be true, as I demonstrated in 2 examples above.

And look at the links to The Toronto Sun earlier in this thread.  They were the first ones out with the OPP story and NDP supporters eagerly quoted The Sun.

But the point is that The Sun can't be trusted.  They ultimately serve the Conservatives and they have it in for both the NDP & Liberals.  If they are trying to help one party, it is because they want it to be at the expense of the other one so the Conservatives can benefit.

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
But the point is that The Sun can't be trusted.  They ultimately serve the Conservatives and they have it in for both the NDP & Liberals.  If they are trying to help one party, it is because they want it to be at the expense of the other one so the Conservatives can benefit.

And this helps the PCs in an NDP/Liberal constituency where the PCs don't stand a chance because....

Rokossovsky

Sadly you just argued yourself into a circle, expurgating the NDP of any responsibility for what the Toronto Sun publishes, or their motivations. Since you know they are at best "tag-teaming" the NDP for the benefit of the Conservative brand, why on earth are you trying to use this association to smear the NDP?

As I said, it's "tacky" and it just exhibits your underlying knowledge that this victory in Sudbury is as hollow as Justin Trudeau deflating poll numbers.

What you guys just don't get is that the terrain of the Canadian political landscape irrevocably changed in 2011, and you have no strategy to compensate for this other than the vain hope that you can miraculously turn back the clock to 1982, and you can win, by not being the other guys.

Hence the desperation, in the shadow of what should be a small victory on the way to success.

You are not a gracious victor, but bitter in the knowledge that is will likely be the last.

Sad.

Rokossovsky

It's not really resonating is that more people hate the Liberals, than actually hate the Conservatives, which is why the Sun can play this game. How they managed this trick is hard to fathom.

Oh yeah, spinning and lying compulsively.

Debater

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Debater wrote:
But the point is that The Sun can't be trusted.  They ultimately serve the Conservatives and they have it in for both the NDP & Liberals.  If they are trying to help one party, it is because they want it to be at the expense of the other one so the Conservatives can benefit.

And this helps the PCs in an NDP/Liberal constituency where the PCs don't stand a chance because....

I thought this was explained already.  It's the same reason why Cristina Blizzard endorsed Joe Cressy over Adam Vaughan in Trinity-Spadina last year.  Do you think Blizzard, a right-wing shill, suddenly became a big-time NDP supporter?  It's because she and The Sun wanted the Trudeau Liberals to lose.  The Cons weren't in contention in that riding either - that wasn't the point.  It was because they don't want the Trudeau Liberals getting momentum against Harper.

Debater

Rokossovsky wrote:

What you guys just don't get is that the terrain of the Canadian political landscape irrevocably changed in 2011, and you have no strategy to compensate for this other than the vain hope that you can miraculously turn back the clock to 1982, and you can win, by not being the other guys.

You're really overreaching with that one.

And you don't notice how ungracious NDP supporters can be or how much some of you gloat.  It's not just the Liberals who do that.

You're always predicting the defeat of the Liberals and claiming they will be wiped out.

And yet since 2011, it's been the NDP that's been on a downward trend across the country and the Liberals that have been on an upward trend.

These trends could change of course.  There is no guarantee for any of these parties and the wheel of fortune rises & falls.

But overall right now, the landscape across the country is not very good for the NDP.

Here's a piece by Chantal Hébert a few months ago:

"Going from west to east, the NDP landscape outside Quebec is a picture of desolation."

http://www.ourwindsor.ca/opinion-story/4951265-the-ndp-s-problems-are-pi...

Rokossovsky

Only a Liberal would call a 5 point slide in polling over 5 months an upward trend, but the again they also pass laws banning certain activities and call them the "Making Healthy Choices Act", as if making things "illegal" and "choice" are synonymous.

nicky

There are doubtless a number of lessons to be learned from Sudbury and I am mulling them over.

One lesson is clear however. Forum Research has struck out again. It has been plain wriong in at least half a dozen  by-election polls in the last couple years. Surely it is time for the media to stop giving Forum any attention.

adma

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Oh well, the NDP will win this one back in 3 years.

Or in a third of the year, should yesterday's news lead to legal action.

 

But seriously: this is a case where the results might have been a lot different had the election taken place 24 hours later...

terrytowel

Debater wrote:

It was interesting to see The Toronto Sun in bed wth the NDP in another by-election.

Last June we saw The Toronto Sun endorse Joe Cressy over Adam Vaughan in Trinity-Spadina in a desperate attempt to swing the by-election to the NDP since they know the Trudeau Liberals pose a greater threat to Harper.

Today we saw The Toronto Sun publicize the OPP investigation before the rest of the media in order to give the NDP an assist in Sudbury. NDPers were tweeting The Sun story on the OPP investigation throughout the day to influence tonight's vote.

It is not so much a vote for the NDP, but a vote against the Liberals.

In both cases the PC had no shot at either riding. So they would rather see the NDP than the Liberals.

If it was a fight between the PC and the NDP, they would endorse the PC

btw the Toronto Sun despises Adam Vaughan, which was one of a number of reasons they endorsed Joe Cressy.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

There is nothing wrong with hating the Liberals more than the Conservatives, so long as you vote NDP.

Pondering

montrealer58 wrote:

There is nothing wrong with hating the Liberals more than the Conservatives, so long as you vote NDP.

Not as long as you own it.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Why shouldn't progressives hate the Liberals more than the Conservatives, now that it is clear that the Liberals are the enemies of social and economic change?  Of progressive advance in any real form?

ctrl190

The Liberals won the election, but what they lost was the positive narrative and post-victory honeymoon that accompanies by-election wins.

The Globe, Post and even The Star are lambasting the Liberals for the dirty tactics. It will leave a bad taste in the mouths of Ontarians.

terrytowel

ctrl190 wrote:
The Liberals won the election, but what they lost was the positive narrative and post-victory honeymoon that accompanies by-election wins. The Globe, Post and even The Star are lambasting the Liberals for the dirty tactics. It will leave a bad taste in the mouths of Ontarians.

Unfortunately by the time 2018 rolls around, no one will remember this story.

Sudbury Star Reports wrote:
Yesterday Nickel Belt New Democrat MPP France Gelinas started working at 8:30 a.m. when the temperature was -28 C to get out the vote.

I'm really impressed by her dedication and her stamina to get out the vote yesterday.

Nickel Belt is lucky to have her as an MPP

Debater

Ken Burch wrote:

Why shouldn't progressives hate the Liberals more than the Conservatives, now that it is clear that the Liberals are the enemies of social and economic change?  Of progressive advance in any real form?

Because that narrative is TOTALLY FALSE.

And it's been shown over & over again.  There are major differences between Liberals & Conservatives.  I listed a whole series of differences between Trudeau & Harper in the Canadian Politics forum, starting with women's rights and gay rights.

ajaykumar

Congrats NDP! change that's ready! btw , all parties block/stop candidates  and offer them stuff.Kathleen Wynne didn't open a satellite office in the North Pole to monitor climate change.

ajaykumar

Congrats NDP! change that's ready! btw , all parties block/stop candidates  and offer them stuff.Kathleen Wynne didn't open a satellite office in the North Pole to monitor climate change.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

self-delete.  dupe post.

TiradeFaction

Debater wrote:
I listed a whole series of differences between Trudeau & Harper in the Canadian Politics forum, starting with women's rights and gay rights.

What about on economics? I don't think anyone here really disputes the Liberals being "socially liberal" (though their committment to such social liberalism seems pretty iffy at times) but people here do associate them with being on the right economically speaking. Given their history when in government, and their current attack ads against the NDP for advocating higher taxes, I think that viewpoint is justified.

ajaykumar

TiradeFaction wrote:

Debater wrote:
I listed a whole series of differences between Trudeau & Harper in the Canadian Politics forum, starting with women's rights and gay rights.

What about on economics? I don't think anyone here really disputes the Liberals being "socially liberal" (though their committment to such social liberalism seems pretty iffy at times) but people here do associate them with being on the right economically speaking. Given their history when in government, and their current attack ads against the NDP for advocating higher taxes, I think that viewpoint is justified.

Is NDP still left wing economically? i.e advocating lower taxes for rich small businesses. I thought NDP removed socialisim from constitution.NDP has become what it has mocked! I thought NDP was moving to the centre to increase base? Whats so left wing about provincial NDP govts?  i.e NSNDP Darrel Dexter

Aristotleded24

ajaykumar wrote:
Whats so left wing about provincial NDP govts?  i.e NSNDP Darrel Dexter

In Manitoba, the NDP has moved to undo the damage the previous government did to the health care system, it froze tuition fees, it expanded funding for urban renwal in almost every major city in the province, and it's expanded wages and pension benefits for child care workers.

Jacob Two-Two

Debater wrote:

And yet since 2011, it's been the NDP that's been on a downward trend across the country and the Liberals that have been on an upward trend.

You know as well as I do that this isn't even slightly true.

There was a massive shift that happened in the 2011 election that elevated the NDP and cratered the Liberal support. A few months later, with a charismatic new leader for the Liberals, that shift adjusted back to normal somewhat, as any reasonable person would expect it to. It was exactly what I predicted would happen. What I was worried about was that the correction would go straight back to the previous norm, but I've been pleased to see that this hasn't happened. Rossokovsy's assertion seems accurate in that the base levels of support appear to have shifted permanently in the NDP's favour.

Since that correction a few months after the election, both the Libs and the NDP have been pretty static. The Libs appear to be on a downward slide lately but I'm not convinced yet that it's more than a fluctuation. We'll have to wait and see. What isn't in question is that the NDP has been holding strong for the last three years at levels of support they never used to achieve. If they haven't dropped by now, they're clearly not going to. It seems the landscape has shifted, and that logically has to mean that the next election can't be judged by the usual standards, or be subject to the same expectations. We are somewhat in uncharted territory.

Robo

Debater wrote:

... Misfit, I didn't say this by-election was about Tom Mulcair.  I said that analysts are pointing out that he campaigned hard in Sudbury but once again it shows he has no coattails on the campaign trail.

Here's what David Akin posted a few minutes ago:

Also: @ThomasMulcair campaigned in #onpoli Sudbury. His opponents will remind him: he wears some of this

I know.  In the Niagara Falls provincial by-election in 2014, federal leader [url=http://www.niagarafallsreview.ca/2014/01/17/liberal-invasion]Justin Trudeau campaigned for the Liberal candidate[/url], an elected city councillor, who finished a distant third in the end. All that people have been talking about since then is how Trudeau wears the distant third place results of his preferred candidate in a seat the Liberals had held.  (This is where I regret the "roll eyes" emoticon no longer is available in Rabble...)

Just another example of Debater citing things about New Democrats that don't matter when the parallel applies to Liberals.

terrytowel

The following is neither an endorsement or support of Sudbury Reporter speculation. I'm just posting for public consumption and an FYI to Babble posters.

On Focus Ontario this week, discussion centred on analysing the Sudbury by-election.

Local Sudbury reporter said the Liberals won this for one simple reason. Sudbury wanted an MPP in government at the cabinet table.

The former Liberal MPP for Sudbury was a cabinet minister for a decade, and Sudbury was used to it. Made them feel important, as their representative was in government.

The community wanted that again, as it didn't feel the same with the short-lived NDP MPP

Again these are the reporters words, not mine. I'm just posting this for discussion as maybe that is the reason the Liberals won the by-election.

Pondering

terrytowel wrote:

The following is neither an endorsement or support of Sudbury Reporter speculation. I'm just posting for public consumption and an FYI to Babble posters.

On Focus Ontario this week, discussion centred on analysing the Sudbury by-election.

Local Sudbury reporter said the Liberals won this for one simple reason. Sudbury wanted an MPP in government at the cabinet table.

The former Liberal MPP for Sudbury was a cabinet minister for a decade, and Sudbury was used to it. Made them feel important, as their representative was in government.

The community wanted that again, as it didn't feel the same with the short-lived NDP MPP

Again these are the reporters words, not mine. I'm just posting this for discussion as maybe that is the reason the Liberals won the by-election.

Makes perfect sense to me. Voters are often pragmatic.

Ciabatta2

Debater wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Why shouldn't progressives hate the Liberals more than the Conservatives, now that it is clear that the Liberals are the enemies of social and economic change?  Of progressive advance in any real form?

Because that narrative is TOTALLY FALSE.

And it's been shown over & over again.  There are major differences between Liberals & Conservatives.  I listed a whole series of differences between Trudeau & Harper in the Canadian Politics forum, starting with women's rights and gay rights.

The narrative is completely true.  Your tribalism prohibits your understanding.  Your response refutes nothing.

Your policy examples - undefined, meaningless buzzwords - are little more than errant signposts within social and economic systems that Ken and many others would argue continue to disadvantage at every turn.

Where the NDP has failed, utterly, along with many of its international counterparts (or, the Liberals have succeeded?) is that the mantle of "progressive" has been co-opted to represent a smattering of social policies that offer a sheen on top of an underlying foundation of economic and social structure that conservatives have no qualms with.  (That's what happens when you base appeal on language rather than action.  It gets co-opted and becomes meaningless.)

Your only answer to this question - time and time again - is that the Liberals have differences from the Conservatives.

That doesn't refute Ken's assertion.  He's right.  The Liberal Party is not progressive, and it is not supposed to be.  It's not its role.  You'd be better off (here, and elsewhere) to accept it.  

GTY

terrytowel wrote:

The following is neither an endorsement or support of Sudbury Reporter speculation. I'm just posting for public consumption and an FYI to Babble posters.

On Focus Ontario this week, discussion centred on analysing the Sudbury by-election.

Local Sudbury reporter said the Liberals won this for one simple reason. Sudbury wanted an MPP in government at the cabinet table.

The former Liberal MPP for Sudbury was a cabinet minister for a decade, and Sudbury was used to it. Made them feel important, as their representative was in government.

The community wanted that again, as it didn't feel the same with the short-lived NDP MPP

Again these are the reporters words, not mine. I'm just posting this for discussion as maybe that is the reason the Liberals won the by-election.

If this reporter believes that there is “one simple reason” then he or she is not a very good analyst.  The Liberals depended on the Liberal brand and a candidate who had a high profile from the years of being an MP.  (The opposite was true last June when NDP candidate Joe Cimino had a higher profile from being a city councilor.than Andrew Olivier).  The Liberals had more time to campaign as the by-election was called before the NDP could nominate their candidate.

 
Furthermore, while the Liberal were dropping hints that Sudbury would get more if their elected MPP was a member of government, he wasn’t promoted as being in line for a cabinet post.  Perhaps more of the 59% of the voters who did NOT vote liberal speculate that he Thibeault will receive a cabinet post than the 41% who did vote for him.

But the dominant issue in the by-election is the stench of Liberal corruption raised when Andrew Olivier made his recording public, not what Sudbury residents could get by electing a Liberal MPP.  

Pondering

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Where the NDP has failed, utterly, along with many of its international counterparts, is that the mantle of "progressive" has been co-opted to represent a smattering of social policies that offer a sheen on top of an underlying foundation of economic and social structure that conservatives have no qualms with.

A structure that the NDP executive is happy to support as well. "Progressive" and "left" are not synonyms.

Ciabatta2

Pondering wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Where the NDP has failed, utterly, along with many of its international counterparts, is that the mantle of "progressive" has been co-opted to represent a smattering of social policies that offer a sheen on top of an underlying foundation of economic and social structure that conservatives have no qualms with.

A structure that the NDP executive is happy to support as well. "Progressive" and "left" are not synonyms.

One wrong and one right.  You are correct - they aren't exactly opposites but are closer to antonyms than synonyms.  The Liberals aren't progressive, let alone remotely left.  And that's ok, they're not supposed to be either one.  They are centrists.  By definition, they believe the system works just fine.

You are wrong in the support of the structure.  The Liberals believe in perpetuating the structure for the betterment of society and that changes will destabilize the balance.  The NDP is critical of the structure in the places where it feels that the system fails significant segments of society and feels that an altered system is necessary to ensure societal viability.

Where the Liberals have done well (and the NDP failed) is promoting this critique, making their supporters feel "progressive", while perpetuating the problems that they purport to be critiquing.

 

NorthReport

This by-election may come back to haunt the Liberals yet.

 

http://www.thesudburystar.com/2015/02/09/sorbara-and-lougheed-should-ste...

 

MegB

Continued here.

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