Toronto-Danforth byelection - 4
February 10, 2012 - 12:52pm
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re: Stockholm
I still think the NDP has to be the slight favourite. I feel voter enthusiasm, a key factor in byelections, is on the NDP's side.
My primary concern is the lack of a strong Conservative establishment in the riding, despite Lastman ally Case Ootes' previous reign in the northern half of the riding. They usually fight for third against the Greens. I think it could explain the Liberal spillover effect, and the fact that the Libs still had a strong showing in 06 and 08 against a national leader.
I hope in an effort to spare the embarrassment of fourth place the Cons will throw some of their national prowess into the riding. That could certainly eat into Liberal growth.
The Conservatives have run very very weak campaigns in danforth for the past 20 years - its really doesn't affect the outcome. There is a small Tory base in the riding. If the Tories runa reasonably competent, visible campaign - they vote. If the Tory campaign is non-existent they will just stay home as opposed to voting for a Liberal.
So I just went looking for the Gordon ad that was witty and cute to show it to my family. Apparently it was a little too cute for the real election. It's been pulled. There's still the CBC article that shows much of it, but the original link goes to a 404 error. And this link pulls up with blanks for the images. But, the ALT tags were still there...so here's the text in case you missed it the first time:
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Grant Gordon for the Liberal Nomination Get me on the ballot. Hey Dippers, Grits, Tories, Greens and Non-voters—there’s a by-election coming up in Toronto-Danforth to elect our new Member of Parliament. Whatever your political stripe, help Grant Gordon win the Liberal Party’s Nomination. Here’s why.
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Dear NDPers, In the upcoming by-election, you guys are going to wipe up. But why go through this elaborate process without a spirited debate? I’m the ONLY Liberal nominee who can push the NDP and hold it accountable. Help get me on the ballot, and I’ll create intelligent dialogue. (And don’t worry, I’m not a threat. The NDP owns this riding.)
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Dear Liberals, Pay no attention to that last paragraph. We can win this thing. But only with a fresh, new voice. Get me on the ballot and I’ll prove the Libs are rebuilding from the ground up. I live on Logan with Gill Deacon; my kids go to Withrow; and I’m passionate about making our riding—and the world—a better place.
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Dear Tories, Do you really want to see those pinko commie bike-riding NDPers take this riding in a walk? No. You want to see them sweat. Help me get nominated and I’ll go after their economic policy. I believe taking care of profits is just as important as taking care of people and the planet. You can’t have sustainability without all three.
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Dear Greens, I’m not green. I’m verdant green. Ask Elizabeth. She’ll vouch for me. I’ve spent the last 10 years helping environmental companies and NGOs make the world a healthier place. (I’m the guy who created the FLICK OFF campaign.) Help get me on the ballot and I’ll rally the people of our riding to take positive action.
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Dear Non-voters, You’re the biggest constituency out there. Why don’t you vote? Because you hate careerist politicians? Because there’s no real choice? Because no one speaks for you? I get why you don’t vote. But what if an authentic person got into politics—someone who actually listened more than he talked?
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Dear Rhinos, Your party is a pathetic, hollow shell of what it once was. Your late founder Cornelius the First, that visionary rhino from the Granby zoo, must be rolling in his grave. Where are you guys?!! If you help get me on the ballot and I win, I promise to give every family in Toronto-Danforth a goat.
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You can’t vote for Grant if you don’t register. All joking aside, I’m dead serious. To vote for me to become the candidate for the Liberals, you have to join the Party. Joining a party sounds scary, but all it means is that you pay ten bucks and your name goes on a confidential list. If you’re tired of all the rhetoric you hear during election time, get me on the ballot. Registration ends soon, so please do it now.
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To register, go to action.liberal.ca/en/membership.
Like me: facebook.com/GrantGordonLiberal
To volunteer or donate: grantgordoncampaign@gmail.com
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So, why did it get pulled from the internet? A little too real? We'll see how the Libs package him shortly.Gordon runs Key Gordon Communications, a marketing firm.
http://www.keygordon.com/
From my perspective – a spear-carrier on the Scott campaign – the Liberals have been very, very slow out of the gate. There have been campaign signs on the subway for Scott for weeks, as it wasn't exactly a secret that a byelection was imminent. By having a nomination meeting AFTER the byelection was called, the Liberals look disorganized, possibly even slightly amateurish. The NDP has the jump on Liberals in signs - plenty of orange signs out, and I suspect plenty more to come. Even after a Liberal sign blitz yesterday (with the added bad luck of the ground being frozen), I think Scott will have a clear advantage, even before the sign crews ramping up.
One more in the race:
http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/news/canadian_news/2012/02/11/2937.html
I think edmund is right. That the Liberals were having a somewhat hard time even getting the easy stuff lined up. Doesn't have the look of a deep enough crew that is ready and chomping to do everything it takes.
I know that when we dont have everything ready to go in a by-election where we have a strong shot... I take that as most likely a terminally bad sign. [As in the case in Cumberland Colchester when Bill Casey resigned with tons of warning.]
the Liberals were having a somewhat hard time
The hard time has got somewhat harder, thanks to the former candidate, Andrew Lang.
Right now, I'm on a telephone town hall hosted by Tabuns and Craig Scott. I'm not crazy about these things but what the heck, I just put it on speaker phone, treat it like background noise, tune in the interesting stuff, tune out the boring stuff. But I guess it's a way to see how the candidate connects with people.
I was amused, however by the "poll" they took when I was first connected to the call. I don't remember the exact wording, but there was some sort of preamble to the question and then the question went something like, Do you think Stephen Harper is leading the country in the right direction? Press 1 if you say no, and press 2 if you say yes. Don't forget! Press 1 if you think Stephen Harper is leading the country in the wrong direction! Probably a slight exaggeration, but such an glaringly obvious push poll. And shockingly, 82% of respondents said yes, Stephen Harper is leading the country in the wrong direction! Gee, what a meaningful poll!
I really wish politicians (of all stripes) would use the polling feature on telephone town halls to actually get useful information from the people they're calling. It's an amazing tool. Why not ask people a real question instead of treating us like morons?
I don't think you are a moran Michelle. And good for you for listening in - maybe you could suggest to the "crew" a better question or two or three.
thomaus, you can find that ad here. I was looking for it a couple of nights ago, not having seen it yet myself.
janfromthebruce, I'm glad you don't think I'm a moran. :D
As for suggesting better questions - I don't really care enough to go out of my way to think up questions for them. I wouldn't bother with coming up with questions just for the sake of asking questions. If I were planning the calls, I'd be asking myself what kind of real information I want to get from people that could be gathered using that polling feature - or maybe something that makes people think you're actually looking for real information or guidance from them.
looks like Lang isn't the only one eating sour grapes...so's his buddy Warren:
http://warrenkinsella.com/2012/02/sigh-5/
"...An experienced, great guy like Lang gets pushed aside for, um, no one in particular...."
(seems that iPolitics article this and edmund's link go to are behind a paywall)
My opinion, based on my personal unpleasant encounters with Andrew, and the feedback during the last campaign, is that Andrew has only himself to blame, and was more than likely asked to step aside because of that. speculation of course, but grounded in experience.
looks like the damage to the Liberal brand he did was pretty deep though...no movement in the latest poll from his 18% plummet:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1131505--poll-ndp-will-win-toronto-danforth-byelection-by-wide-margin
"...
Scott — a human rights lawyer and law professor with no previous political experience — is predicted to take it at 61 per cent....
/snip/
...The survey shows Liberal advertising executive Grant Gordon with 19 per cent support, compared with 14 per cent for the Conservatives’ Andrew Keyes, a communications specialist. That’s almost on par with results from last May’s federal election."
ouch.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1131505--poll-ndp-will-win-toronto-danforth-byelection-by-wide-margin
The article contains an interesting hypothetical about the NDP's leadership contest:
Though it's not clear if they're talking about two separate scenarios (Liberal fortunes rising if Mulcair is leader or if Trudeau is leader), or if both at the same time (liberal fortunes rising if both Muclair and Trudeau were the leaders of their respective parties).
But Muclair hurting the NDP? Interesting. I wonder if the poll considered any of the other leadership contenders?
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1131505--poll-ndp-will-win-toronto-danforth-byelection-by-wide-margin
I think you meant to link to this Toronto Star article, right? When I click on your link above, I go to an iPolitics article.
Edited to add: Oh, never mind. The link was right in farnival's post. It was changed to the iPolitics link somehow in A_J's post when A_J quoted it. Weird!
Of course that poll asked about Justin Trudeau as a hypothetical Liberal leader the night before his act of self-immolation with his comments about Quebec. If there was EVER any chance of Justin becoming liberal leader for the 2015 election - that chnace has now totally vanished. He will now be persona non grata in the liberal party.
If there was EVER any chance of Justin becoming liberal leader for the 2015 election - that chnace has now totally vanished. He will now be persona non grata in the liberal party.
I'm not so sure. Desperation does strange things to people.
a random question about mulcair vs trudeau? the media types are really lame.
Given what an overwhelmingly NDP riding Tor-Dan is, the Forum poll should maybe have asked all the NDP voters there who they wanted to see as NDP leader! Instead they waste time with an absurd question about Mulcair vs. Justin!
That's why I'm curious - did they ask people about multiple scenarios (how would you vote if Topp were the leader? Nash? etc.) and Muclair/Trudeau was the only data-point that saw anything worth reporting (a dip in NDP support) or was it just these two?
Makes sense to ask about Muclair - he's the front-runner and likely future leader, but the Liberals really aren't discussing the leadership at all right now. And seeing how this was a by-election poll, not a NDP leadership poll, there really wasn't any need to get too in-depth into people's leadership choices.
I wonder if the media's trying to spin Mulcair into being the Real Caouette of the NDP, i.e. the kind of leader that'd turn the party into a Quebec ghetto...
http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/15/ndp-support-still-strong-in-layt...
the Liberals are sounding more than a little desperate in their repetitive messaging:
"The poll numbers put NDP candidate Craig Scott ahead by 61% compared to Liberal candidate Grant Gordon’s 19%..."
-snip-
"“...Essentially the riding is Liberal,” said Mr. Mills, dismissing any notions otherwise as a “myth.”
“It was a Jack riding, not an NDP riding. People were voting for Jack, not the party...."
"...What he is hearing on the streets is that people voted for Mr. Layton, not the party..." /says Gordon/
and Grant gets classy right out of the gate:
“They didn’t vote for the NDP. Mr. Layton was the party leader and larger than life,” he said. “If the NDP wants to believe [in the polls], then maybe Mr. Scott should go to Las Vegas for the rest of the campaign..”"
one thing you can count on with the Liberals in T-D, they do apparently drink thier own kool-aide, and in the absence of anything substantive to offer the voters, they resort to snarky smears of thier opponents.
"“...Essentially the riding is Liberal,” said Mr. Mills, dismissing any notions otherwise as a “myth.”
“It was a Jack riding, not an NDP riding. People were voting for Jack, not the party...."
But the thing is: until Dennis Mills won in 1988, it *was* an NDP riding--and not only that, but the "strongest" in Toronto, then as now. To the point where under no sane judgment could the Liberals have been bet on to win in '88--trouble is, Lynn McDonald was complacent, Mills conducted a superb retail campaign, and the whole anti-free-trade Liberal boomlet did the rest.
So: speak for yourself, Mr. Mills.
I was one of the 538 people who responded to the push-button poll. I was pretty busy, but it seemed interesting so I stayed on the line.
The Mulcair and Trudeau questions were separate and the only leader questions posed. ("Justin" was pronounced with a very distinct French accent. BTW) I thought it was pretty random that they got the only questions. But aren't they both leading in the respective leader polls at this point? So maybe it makes sense.
The liberals don't pick a new leader for at least another year and Justin Trudeau (aka "the airhead") has already very explicitly said he will not run under any circumstances! And that was even before he self-destructed with his Quebec comments. So what's the point of asking about something that won't happen? If you are going to poll about that why not also ask people how they would vote if Jack Layton came back to life and was NDP leader again?
"“...Essentially the riding is Liberal,” said Mr. Mills, dismissing any notions otherwise as a “myth.”
“It was a Jack riding, not an NDP riding. People were voting for Jack, not the party...."
But the thing is: until Dennis Mills won in 1988, it *was* an NDP riding--and not only that, but the "strongest" in Toronto, then as now. To the point where under no sane judgment could the Liberals have been bet on to win in '88--trouble is, Lynn McDonald was complacent, Mills conducted a superb retail campaign, and the whole anti-free-trade Liberal boomlet did the rest.
So: speak for yourself, Mr. Mills.
Of course, in 2004 the Liberals were spinning that it was a 'Dennis Mills' riding and that Jack didn't have a prayer against him.
The twitter feed #tordan is hilarious. Liberal supporters are tweeting every little thing they do, and posting photos of any Liberal sign they can find - me thinks if they spent a little less time on their keyboards and a little more time knocking on doors they wouldn't be 40 points behind in the polls.
I have to agree, Lou. The feed is populated by Liberals posting any titbit of information they have. I've been involved with campaigns where the aim is to throw a big shadow via social media to make up for a lack of on-the-ground resources. This looks like one of those campaigns. Their office must be humming with the tapping of keyboards and cells. I don't think they're quite 40 points behind – although I am willing to be pleasantly surprised on election night – but things are grim if their sole aim is to win over the twitterati (which admittedly exists in outsize proportions in TD).
Look at the charming lit the Liberals are now dropping.
The sponsorship scandal has been missed off, as has Mackenzie King's abominable treatment of Japanese-Canadians in WWII and his blithely sending Jews back into the welcoming arms of Hitler to appease anti-Semitic bigots. Not enough room on the page, I guess.
I find it charming that the Liberals have such a facile view of history. So J S Woodsworth *didn't* run the Liberals hard for the Old Age Pensions Act? Pearson wasn't feeling the heat from the NDP when he introduced the Medicare Act? Please.
And I find the inclusion of the ratification of Kyoto, but omitting the years of inaction following, idiotic.
Well, what do you expect from this guy?
Here's Tuesday's itinerary for Grant:
-Pick up spouse's drycleaning
-Walk dog
-Check office voice mail
-Phone office voice mail, leave message, check to see if test message recieved, let out plaintive sigh
-Write dull Flick Off entry
-Write dull campaign press release
-Nap
I knew the Liberals were in bad shape in this riding - but this is really sad. Is it just me or is this video by the Liberal candidate totaly bizarre and quixotic...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=AC86iUenZes
That is an odd video. It seems to have three-quarters of a good idea behind it, but misses the boat somehow. It seems to be begging someone to make fun of a candidate who is preparing to lose.
What one can do in a campaign like this...where it's clear you're going to lose, is use it for doing a "dry run" on certain types of campaign tactics, observe what "works" and what doesn't so that you can refine your tactics and use them in campaigns where you do have a chance of winning in future.
The other thing is that you can have some fun while you're doing it because there aren't any real consequences for screwing up.
This is true...but above all - you don't want to embarrass yourself and/or your party. No one expects the Liberals to win in Toronto-Danforth - even though we should not forget that it used to be Bob Rae's seat and it was once a Liberal stronghold - but they could at least put in credible performance and try to improve on their 18% showing in the May election. Instead they are becoming a laughing stalk and an object of ridicule.
Sounds like a good book:
Not a Liberal stronghold. A Dennis Mills stronghold.
Otherwise, you might as well say that *all* of Toronto was once a Liberal stronghold. (Even Trinity-Spadina--ironically more on the back of its Peter Stollery distant-past than Tony Ianno's more recent stint.)
What one can do in a campaign like this...where it's clear you're going to lose, is use it for doing a "dry run" on certain types of campaign tactics, observe what "works" and what doesn't so that you can refine your tactics and use them in campaigns where you do have a chance of winning in future.
The other thing is that you can have some fun while you're doing it because there aren't any real consequences for screwing up.
1.) I see no indication he has ANY ideas that work. His idea of an 'idea' is designing a logo that looks like the words Fuck Off. (and he's still riding that one ten years later.)
2.) He's not gonna be run anywhere in the future.
3.) No consequences? Maybe... Maybe the Libs could run a lamprey eel in the riding and still be able to bank on a built in 19% of the vote.
Or maybe they'll get 6% of the vote because their candidate is such an embarrassment, and that WILL have consequences. I can write the article now
"While the NDP was favoured to win the riding, few anticipated the complete collapse of the Liberal vote in this, their former stronghold. Insiders say it is reflective of the continuing disarray within the party in the wake of the last election's historic defeat..."
I'm starting to feel sorry for this guy. All he has to do in life is keep his mouth shut and not be remembered as the weirdest spouse at his wife's office Christmas party.
And now he wont even be able to do that.
How is the sign war shaping up?
How is the sign war shaping up?
I actually spotted the first Tory signs in my neighbourhood yesterday One of them was actually on the lawn of a house that wasn't vacant.
I was thinking that maybe they might be doing another invisible campaign where all they do is put up a website.
Anyway, I wish the hardcore dippers in this thread could just step back a bit and be a little less partisan in their comments. The last time dippers were over confident in this part of town we got stuck with Dennis Mills for fifteen years.
I think in this case, "overconfidence" might mean not NDP loss a la 1988, but NDP under 50% And maybe something even unforeseen such as the Tories in 2nd...
Anyway, I wish the hardcore dippers in this thread could just step back a bit and be a little less partisan in their comments. The last time dippers were over confident in this part of town we got stuck with Dennis Mills for fifteen years.
I believe Scott is taking this bielection seriously, I saw him on the global new the other day with Nicole Turmel and Olvia Chow, so I don't think not putting his all into it.
When I first heard of Grant I thought the Libs might actually be onto something: A corporate marketing guy who has done pro-bono communications work for progressive causes.
Not exactly a Rhodes scholar who worked with Nelson Mandela, but someone who could potentially bring the Mills voters back to the Libs.
Except Grant isn't really a corporate guy. His website lists charities he's worked with, and a few corporations involved, It gives no indication of any paying corporate work he ever landed. No links to say... a swiffer ad or a car ad or something. Or anything.
Usually when one does charitible work with corporations, a spin-off is sooner or later some paying business gets thrown your way:
"I appreciate the work you did on the Sick Kids campaign, it means a lot to me as my child was very sick when they were a newborn. How would you like to come in Tuesday to talk about doing some spots for our new lattes we're rolling out?"
or
" Who have you worked with? Virgin and MuchMusic? You don't say. Well, you must have some ability, sure I'll take the meeting."
But there's no indication he was ever able to capitalize on the charitible gigs. This is because his charitible work is, well, ineffectual and embarrassing.
Look up his youtube videos for the campaign. They're just... bad. As in inept. You cant hear what he's saying because they're filmed on windy days outside. And there's no substance to them. In one of his videos Bob Rae gives a really effective pitch on why to vote Liberal. But Grant doesn't get to speak at all. And that's just sad
In other words, he's flicked.
On Saturday and Sunday in TO it was the prov NDP council mtg and they ended early on Saturday so the reps from all the ridings could go to TorDan and canvas - no, I'd say they are not taking the riding for granted - in fact, it's about getting out and knocking on every door and showing strength.
Heavens.
Wrong thread, sorry.
Heavens.
Alert to any electors in Toronto-Danforth. If you shake hands or have any physical contact with the Liberal candidate - you will put yourself at risk of being infested with lice!
THIS THE SAD TRUTH. Voting Liberal gives you lice. It's why Bob Rae's hair turned white. IT'S MOVING!
2x
Actually, I think Gordon is running a pretty smart campaign here in T-D. He's putting up YouTube videos that, yes, are somewhat eccentric, but still get across the idea that he's a nice, ordinary family guy who coaches kids' hockey in the neighbourhood.
His wife posting a blog on his website humanizes him, gives people a peek into their happy homelife, shows he has his family support behind him, he's a "nice guy", etc.
He's gotten attention through his funny and silly flyers. That first one addressing all the different party supporters was hilarious and got him lots of local press. The one about what the Liberals have achieved and the NDP have achieved? Well, as an NDP voter, I don't like it much, especially since they take credit for stuff the NDP had to push them into doing (like, hello, MEDICARE?), but it will probably be effective for swing voters. When you're starting as far behind as he is, you've got to take risks and be bold, and that's what he's doing.
He's basically running in a faint-hope (no-hope?) campaign, and trying all sorts of interesting tactics to see if anything will stick, and trying to get some attention. So, the party has a gigantic billboard that everyone sees when driving or riding their bike east on the Danforth into the riding from the Bloor Street Viaduct bridge with Bob Rae saying, "We want you back" (which I also think is an effective slogan). They have rented an extremely visible campaign office, also the first thing you see when you come into the riding, at the corner of Broadview and Danforth.
I know everyone here is partisan (including me - I'll be voting NDP in the by-election too, since Mulcair won't be leader yet), but I think people aren't giving the competitor's campaign enough credit. In fact, the NDP could probably learn some stuff from it for their own no-hope campaigns.
He won't win. But if he increases the Liberal Party's vote share by a decent margin, they will probably consider that a success in itself, and use some of those campaign tactics in other ridings where they have a better chance.
sorry michelle, while i'm completely ndp partisan, i think you're being overly generous to a very oddball candidate, likely because you are nice person giving the "underdog" the benefit of the doubt. regardless of my affiliation, i want to know what he's done and what he will do for the riding and country as an MP, not weird videos of hockey metaphors by someone who looks like they drank wayyyyy to much coffee, and his spouse's reliance on him to delouse thier kids hair. that's ok if you have put out a serious platform, and would as you say, work to humanise the candidate. but in the absence of that, and in the presence of the very misleading flyer you mentioned, it's just plain weird.
being a federal MP is one of the most serious things a person can do in thier life. I want a candidate with a serious CV, a serious campaign message, and is serious about deliveringing on it. I've yet to get that in 8 years of campaigns from the Liberal camp. only that they want to "take back the riding" for themselves.
as for "we want you back" , i find this messaging from the T-D Liberals to be offensive as i've said before. Toronto-Danfoth wasn't "thiers", the NDP"s, nor is it anyone else's to "get back". Not once in any campaign since 2004 when i became an NDP volunteer, have i seen anything from the Liberal candidate saying what they will do, or have done, to improve or benefit the riding. What they did do though,when Dennis Mills was MP , was eliminate the Toronto Harbour Commission and replace it with the Federal Toronto Port Authority, which instantly started suing the city and refusing to pay it's taxes, not to mention being a plum patronage appointment location for both the Liberals, and now the Conservatives (lisa raitt anyone?), voting against SSM, and getting busted for claiming he secured a building being squatted by OCAP for social housing when he didn't. As for Lang in the last two elections, aside from being a toxic personality (if you've ever met him you'll instantly understand) he supported both the Portlands Energy Centre (a provincial Liberal pet project) and the SmartCentre's big box (one of his publicity people also worked at Media Profile, SmartCentre's pr firm), both of which were opposed by the riding.
why would we want the Liberals "back" ever? so they can wreck my neighbourhood all so they can put another feather in thier tattered hat?
as for the "prominent" office at Broadview and Danforth, it's basically prominent because it's completely boarded up with campaign signs so you can't see in. when i did last week, i counted two computers and three phones, one adult looking person, and three highschool aged kids. looks like a real juggernaut in there! :-P
Well, I'm not nice enough to want the underdog to win, even if I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt... ;)
That's interesting, about the campaign office! That's not what it looks like from the outside, and of course I've never ventured inside nor even peeked - just noticed it when going past it recently in a cab! :)
Anyhow, the point isn't that he's running a high-budget campaign filled with volunteers. The point is that he's NOT, which is why he has to do some oddball things to get attention.
I see your point about the "We want you back" campaign - but I'm sure you also realize that it's not aimed at you. They know they're not getting you "back" because you were never "theirs" to begin with. They want the swing voters "back". They want current Dippers who were formerly Liberals "back". It's supposed to speak to them, not you. :)
I didn't live in the riding when Dennis Mills was in office - in fact, I had just barely moved back to Toronto when Jack won it, so I don't know much about those things you mention. But I've heard from at least one other person who lived in the riding for years that Mills won the riding and held it by being extremely good at constituency work - in fact, even opening up a shadow constituency office before getting elected.
I'm not sure that I've ever met Andrew Lang. I got some "missed you" flyers from him in the last election when they were canvassing, so I never got to judge his personality for myself. And I don't think we attended an all-candidates debate either, come to think of it. We had a Jack sign on our lawn the last time around, and currently we have a ginormous Craig sign. I did manage to meet a canvasser for the Conservative candidate yesterday though! I couldn't believe it - first, that they were bothering to campaign, and secondly, that they'd bother knocking on our door with that huge honking orange sign there. The kid was nice and good natured about it when I told him I wouldn't be supporting the Conservatives.
Didnt know about the billboard. I think it's a good slogan. The campaign office, which I walked by a couple of weeks ago, is definiely prominent.
Of course they'll hope people vote for the brand (Libs/ Bob) rather than the lightweight candidate. One could even get a uniligual anglo elected in a francophone riding in Quebec with such a strategy, non?
So, they're putting an effort in. Let's not let their vote rise.
One other thing that gets to me is the hockey spot. He mentions a kid with an unusual name, who's not a very good player, by name, publicly, in the video, as being a crummy player.
That's shitty judgment. I felt bad for the kid.
Yeah, actually, that bothered me too, the mention of the kid's name - I forgot about that until you mentioned it. It's not like his name was "John" or something. Everyone would know exactly who he was talking about, and that kind of stuff gets around schools too once one kid hears it and passes it along.
These odd balls tactics shouldn't be discounted. They get Hedy Fry elected in Vancouver Centre and certainly didn't hurt Keith Martin in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. They don't injure Rob Anders in Calgary. Kevin Lamoureux's McDonald's hour is not a problem for him. Denis Coderre has not lost office despite his unflattering guignol on Laflaque. They helped Myron Thompson in Wildrose and Deborah Grey to become the first Alliance MP. Elsie Wayne dominated Saint John. In short, real characters can win real elections. They get people's attention and if quirks are not negatives and the other stuff is positives, it gets people elected.
As for Grant Gordon, I think his greatest flaw (tactic wise) is talking about being losers. Most voters hate a loser. The Liberals use to run whole campaigns on being "winners." It's damn tough spot to be in. Anyways, Grant is succeeding in getting noticed, and as an ad exec, he knows that's much of the battle, especially in a race the media (and others) want to ignore because the result is so dialed in.
Another place the result was supposed to be dialed in= Winnipeg North. Don't let this guy get anymore attention.
Needs a sound guy ;)
Craig Scott has a professional-looking video.
These odd balls tactics shouldn't be discounted. They get Hedy Fry elected in Vancouver Centre and certainly didn't hurt Keith Martin in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. They don't injure Rob Anders in Calgary. Kevin Lamoureux's McDonald's hour is not a problem for him. Denis Coderre has not lost office despite his unflattering guignol on Laflaque. They helped Myron Thompson in Wildrose and Deborah Grey to become the first Alliance MP. Elsie Wayne dominated Saint John. In short, real characters can win real elections. They get people's attention and if quirks are not negatives and the other stuff is positives, it gets people elected.
You forgot the most obvious/immediate example of all: Dennis Mills.
But as Lloyd Bentsen would say, Grant Gordon's no Dennis Mills.
Hey, we just found a flyer dropped by the Conservative candidate when we got home from Labour Council tonight. It's a total attack on - get this - Bob Rae!
So weird. Do they think the Liberals are in the lead here or something?
Very, very strange.
radiorahim's conspiracy theory is that the Cons want the NDP to win this riding. But I have no idea why they would want that.
The Cons don't expect to win Danforth but they want to get as many votes as possible. They presumably seek to attract some centrist voters who will choose between voting Con and Lib. Voters who switched from the Libs to the Cons gave the Cons their majority in 2011. The Cons need to keep these "Blue Liberal" voters and would like to gain some more. Running against Rae seems like a good strategy. The by-election is a chance to field test anti-Rae messaging.
The Cons don't expect to win Danforth but they want to get as many votes as possible. They presumably seek to attract some centrist voters who will choose between voting Con and Lib. Voters who switched from the Libs to the Cons gave the Cons their majority in 2011. The Cons need to keep these "Blue Liberal" voters and would like to gain some more. Running against Rae seems like a good strategy. The by-election is a chance to field test anti-Rae messaging.
The CPC would also squeal with delight if the Liberals finished 3rd in Toronto Danforth, because it would be embarassing and the CPC competes with the Liberals in the 905.
The Tories were actually only a couple of percentage points behind the liberals in the may election in T-D - its not inconceivable that they could come in second.
The Liberals have been campaigning on Bob Rae, so if they finish third, I'd say it is a judgment on him.
Grant is succeeding in getting noticed, and as an ad exec, he knows that's much of the battle,
Ad exec? Where? As far as i can tell he ran a one-man-band "agency" / ego trip that didnt make any money and didnt have any clients
I wonder if the media's trying to spin Mulcair into being the Real Caouette of the NDP, i.e. the kind of leader that'd turn the party into a Quebec ghetto...
I'm surprised we haven't seen more people writing about lessons to be learned from the experience of Social Credit.
That being said, the NDP has a culture of being a coalition of mutual interests, where everybody agrees to stick up for each other as long as it's for a good and compatible cause. The SoCreds were forebearers of western Reform and Quebec ADQ types, and their reactionary political culture did not lend itself to that kind of mutual support. We are not necessarily doomed to go down that road.
This morning I was sipping a pretentious beverage at The Only Cafe when Gordon and Bob Rae walked in from mainstreeting. I shook Bob's hand and he passed me a Gordon flyer.
I can definitely see Gordon doing well at the door. He is soft-spoken and quite personable.
Still, the clientele, of largely writers, post-docs and neighbourhood bohos, was uninterested. The former premier in particular did not resonate with the locals, as he stood around awkwardly, remarked about the eclectic decor, and proceeded to walk out with Gordon.
60 very strange seconds of my life. To add to the drama, the young Liberal handler introduced Rae as the "Leader" of the Liberal Party. Hmmmmm.
Anywho, out and about in the riding, the Grits are definitely putting up a fight. I have received more Grit lit at the door than NDP. The signs, on the other hand, are about 2:1 in favour of Scott, and in some areas of East York 3:1. I have also seen the first trace of the Cons who have a few signs up near Mortimer. A stronger Con campaign than the virtually non existant campaign by the Tories in '11 should probably help the NDP.
Still, I hope the Scott campaign isn't on cruise control.
Grant Gordon had his "telephone town hall" this afternoon with Bob Rae and Judy Sgro...with Bob Rae doing most of the talking.
It was pretty normal Liberal campaign stuff...campaign from the left and govern from the right.
However the one issue that discussed that had me puzzled was housing. I am curious as to how Bob Rae was able to talk about the Liberal housing plan without losing his breakfast, lunch and between meal snacks.
The Chretien/Martin Liberal government spent over a dozen years in office and made "re-announcing" a national housing programme over and over again without ever delivering one into an art form.
Even more hypocritical was Judy Sgro also raising the issue of housing. I mean Rae might be forgiven...he had another job at the time. But Judy Sgro was a cabinet minister in that government.
ctrl190, radiorahim and I were a little further east, eating a delicious brunch at Morgan's, probably around the time you were sipping your pretentious beverage at The Only. ;) So we missed them.
We had the telephone town hall radiorahim mentions above on speakerphone (on mute of course), so we were both howling at the phone at intervals, especially when that thing about the national housing strategy came up - or, indeed, any issue they mentioned that they had 12 or 13 years to do something about while they were in government and didn't bother, but really, they're going to do it this time, honest!
Rae did talk, however, about wanting to make it so people could buy into CPP more than they do already, in order to have a pension plan. Not bad, for a Liberal. But, like a Liberal, they'll promise it and not bother delivering.
He also critiqued the NDP plan to remove the GST from home heating in order to provide relief to people with low incomes, and while he made a good point, he kind of missed the overall issue. The good point he made is that such a plan would give more relief to people who can afford bigger homes, and he's right. He also made the point that if you want to help people with lower incomes, then it should be through personal income taxes - lower rates for people with lower incomes and higher rates for people with higher incomes. And I think he also said something about how he would increase the GIS.
However, the overall issue that I think he missed in his analysis is that when it comes to the GST, if, as he is arguing, it would be regressive to remove it because people with larger houses will get larger savings and if progressive taxation is better, then why not make that leap to considering sales taxes regressive, period? (Although I do realize that the GST/HST is less regressive than if it was simply a flat tax on everything, since people with lower incomes get GST/HST rebates, and they spend a higher percentage of their income on necessities that are GST/HST exempt.)
I would personally just rather have much more progressive taxation and no sales tax at all. But what the NDP is proposing (cutting the sales tax on home heating) probably isn't going to help anyone that much, including the environment. People with comfortable incomes aren't going to care about the five bucks they're going to save on their gas bill. Not to mention that people who are renting places with utilities included aren't going to see any savings at all since there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that landlords are going to pass the savings along, and most people who have low incomes rent. So people with low incomes will either never see a gas or electricity bill because they're renting places with utilities included, or they pay utilities on very small places they either rent or own, and it will only be a couple of bucks per month for them too, which isn't going to help their situation that much. Progressive taxation would help them much more.
I saw a profile of the Toronto-Danforth by-election on C-PAC this afternoon, and had to laugh at the fact that Bob Rae was featured almost as much as the Liberal candidate, even showing one of the billboards with Rae's picture, but not the actual Liberal candidate in the by-election.
'Congratulations, Captain Smith! You've been selected to command our newest ship on her maiden voyage...the R.M.S. Titanic. What could go wrong?!'
Liberals so think Canadians are stupid - a national housing strategy - ha ha ha. I remember when my first child was a toddler and the libs were promising national child care and I actually wrote the liberal govt of the day to really encourage them to do it and how expensive childcare was - ha ha ha - so out of it - we'll be lucky if that adult-child now gets national childcare for her child - which she doesn't have at (but of now child bearing age).
Let's keep in mind that Toronto-Danforth is the LITMUS TEST for Bob Rae's interim leadership. He was once MP for the riding and it is right next door to his current riding. The whole Liberal campaign there has been all Rae all the time. If the Liberals can't win Toronto-Danforth, then its proof that they cannot win anywhere and that Bob Rae does nothing for them.
Let's keep in mind that Toronto-Danforth is the LITMUS TEST for Bob Rae's interim leadership. He was once MP for the riding and it is right next door to his current riding. The whole Liberal campaign there has been all Rae all the time. If the Liberals can't win Toronto-Danforth, then its proof that they cannot win anywhere and that Bob Rae does nothing for them.
Amen!
Jan, I still remember the letter I wrote to the Globe, which got published, during the 2004 election. I wrote that the children who would have benefitted from a child care program back when the Liberals started promising it are just about approaching drinking age. I think my last line was, "You had your chance. I'm voting NDP."
I don't think so, Stockholm. I don't think the Liberals consider winning T-D to be a litmus test for Rae. They know it will be just about impossible to win it this time out. They didn't start early enough. Mills won it because he had been campaigning in it and setting up a shadow constituency office for a year beforehand. And I've also heard that the incumbent he won against was a bit slack (or perceived to be, anyhow) on the constituency work, so he capitalized on this (perceived?) weakness. I didn't live here at the time so I don't know firsthand the details.
And don't forget, Rae won this riding when he was NDP.
I think the Liberals will consider it a victory if they just greatly improve the vote share, and I think they'll probably be successful at that. I don't think there will be any 60% wins this time out, although I do think the NDP will win the by-election.
You know Michelle, I was a young mom, my husband went back to school and I was returning to work at the Y. We were obviously not rich and so the cost of childcare and good childcare for a toddler was very very expensive.
So you would be right on in your timing of your letter and the approx. age of those kids born when th elibs made the 1st promise. Ha Ha Ha - can't believe they are still using that "speech" to get elected. What do they think Canadians are - stupid!
I knew the Liberals were in bad shape in this riding - but this is really sad. Is it just me or is this video by the Liberal candidate totaly bizarre and quixotic...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=AC86iUenZes
wow, that's really strange.
Evidence that Ottawa is just letting the Liberal candidate's buddies do what they will, since they weren't going to throw anything into the pot.
I keep seeing this across the country- when a Liberal candidate happens to bring in their own cracker jack organization with them, they can win. They've beat us at out own game in the last few years a few times. But most of the time in any party, where there is no incumbent, the glue for a good campaign, and at least a lot of the resources, has to come from the party. And the Liberals just do not have that any more.
Their horizons shrink as their incumbents inevitably go down. And they have very, very few new recruits that bring their own gas with them. The Lamoreux's manage some pretty slick successes. But you cant [re]build a party on 2 or 3 of those.
And they obviously drew a fool for T-D.
T-9, how goes it?
Tories in places like Toronto Danforth are just as happy to vote NDP if it means putting the boots to a Liberal.
You know Uncle John, many people who aren't really politically engaged don't understand that. Now if the conservative voter believes that the lib is so weak that they may be able to boost their con candidate to 2nd place finish they will vote for their candidate but if not, they will vote NDP because they want to humiliate the libs.
When are the advance polls?
Would a large turn-out there indicate a high voter interest, or just people getting their voting out of the way ahead of time?
You know Uncle John, many people who aren't really politically engaged don't understand that. Now if the conservative voter believes that the lib is so weak that they may be able to boost their con candidate to 2nd place finish they will vote for their candidate but if not, they will vote NDP because they want to humiliate the libs.
Seriously does anybody vote like that? I hope to god no. I'd be enticed to switch my vote to Liberal, in a place like Ottawa-Orleans or Ajax-Pickering where it would actually make a difference, but voting for a party who is completely against my beliefs to make another party lose by a larger margin is shameful. Canadian's are not that bad.
Well Toaster, it happens in in say BC where most races are between NDP and conservatives. So conservatives will vote NDP over throwing their vote to a liberal. You might think that odd but they actually see the "closer to them" in position to their beliefs/values. So they see the NDP candidate as having basic values/principles but have distain for liberal politics.
Having grown up in Ontario and moved to BC - I can say that the Conservative/NDP dynamic is very interesting here and totally foreign to a large portion of Ontario. In much of Ontario there seems to be some sort of fluid middle, such that most Conservative and NDP ridings have Liberals coming second, and most Liberal ridings have in second place whichever party represents the side of the spectrum the riding leans towards from the centre. In BC the federal Liberals are truly persona non grata in most ridings. You also get these places like Burnaby and Surrey that attract a very polarized mix of right-leaning SUV suburban types and left-leaning bike/transit city types.
Some Ontario folks may be surprised at the list of BC ridings where the Liberal ran behind the Green last May: Kootenay-Columbia, British Columbia Southern Interior, Okanagan-Shuswap, Cariboo-Prince George, Prince George-Peace River, Nanaimo-Cowichan, and (of course) Saanich-Gulf Islands.
The Liberals fell below 10% in 17 of BC's 36 ridings, including six in the Lower Mainland. They got 3.5% in Kootenay-Columbia, and 3.6% in Skeena-Bulkley Valley.
Which is why Nathan Cullen being from BC and putting forth a "coop pact" with NDP/lib candidate may a no-brainer in BC, and even out west in general but a no go in Ontario. I'd think ditto in the Maritimes too!
Which is why Nathan Cullen being from BC and putting forth a "coop pact" with NDP/lib candidate may a no-brainer in BC, and even out west in general but a no go in Ontario. I'd think ditto in the Maritimes too!
When I think of Nathan's plan and I think of BC, I think of Blair Wilson and how Nathan's plan may have allowed him to stay in office. Or how people in Vancouver Centre should vote for Hedy "crossing burning on lawns as I speak" Fry, or how Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca NDPers should have heeded the Liberals and Reformers in their riding and stood down in favour of Keith "privatization of medicare is the cause of my life" Martin, or how NDPers in Vancouver Quadra should cede to Joyce "I presided over the elimination of the ministry of the environment as minister" Murray, or how Ujjal "BC NDP" Dosanjh should not have had to run against his former party in Vancouver South, etc etc. I also remember the disappointment NDPers in Saanich-Gulf Islands felt when in 2008 they had no candidate. Jack got asked repeatedly about who Saanich Gulf Island NDPers could vote for as he traveled BC. Saanich-Gulf Islands was ably represented by the NDP previous to the Conservatives.
My sense is that if anyone tries to dictate to the majority of BCers how they have to vote, they are probably going to vote the otherway. BC is a place where a different democratic reform party seems to spring up every couple of elections with the same theme: greater democracy in the system.
I feel like *some* of the supporters of Nathan Cullen want to have it multiple ways. They want to be able to vote for the Liberals and the NDP too. Or they want to be able to vote for the Greens and the NDP. They can have it both ways, but only if we introduce a ranked ballot, not if minorities impose restrictions on the majority's voting options.
I completely agree with you Howard. I don't believe 1 plus 1 equals 2 and that when I look various Lib MPs who lost last time - well many of them were not progressive and to suggest otherwise, is to be played a fool.
(self-delete. Had the by-election date wrong. Thought it was today but it's NEXT Monday.)
I live on a major street in T-D and so it's a street where the parties are trying hard to get signs up.
Still, on my street NDP signs outnumber Liberal signs by about a three to on margin. There are no Tory or Green signs.
Am off this week and just had a knock on my door from the Liberal campaign and the canvasser asked me if I wanted to "balance" my NDP sign with a Liberal sign. I just smiled and shook my head no.
But, interesting to hear what the "line of the day" is at the door.
Nice little write up on Craig, they have been doing an interview with all three main candidates...
http://www.thegridto.com/city/politics/craig-scott-following-in-jack-lay...
I would hope that there is a victory party planned for Mr. Scott on Monday evening.
Does anyone know where it might be?
Give the office a shout. I know in the past they have been at the Fox and the Fiddle on the Danforth or the Estonian House on Broadview.
I'm gonna predict that the MSM line on Monday night will be that the result will be a "setback" for the NDP if Scott falls anywhere at all short of Jack's 2011 vote percentage.
You are right Ken - spin will know no bounds in bashing of the NDP!
I'm positive that Scott WILL fall well short of Jack's vote percentage. It's almost a sure thing. Scott is not the leader of the party and is brand new so doesn't have anywhere near Jack's profile in the riding. And even Jack didn't get 50% of the votes in the election previous to 2011 - he only got about 45% of the vote in 2008.
Gordon is campaigning heavily, and has some hard-hitting, excellent literature at the door. The latest leaflet we've received continues on the theme of his original nomination leaflet where he appeals to voters from every party, in bright primary party colours. Bob Rae has been campaigning heavily with him in this riding as well.
The orange machine is hard at work here, and radiorahim tells me that most of the NDP leadership candidates have shown up to volunteer on the campaign. But the red machine is hard at work here too, and it will make a difference to the outcome. It's a completely different race than 2011.
The number of red signs on our street (a main street) is way, way up from last election, and they're ginormous red signs, not those piddly little ones that no-hope campaigns usually use, so they're pushing really hard here. And I'm seeing red signs on the side streets too, although as RR says, a lot more orange signs overall (including the gigantic one on our tiny little postage-stamp front lawn).
Here's my bold prediction, which of course will be wildly inaccurate because I'm so bad at this:
NDP: 45%
Liberal: 35%
Conservative: 13%
Green: 7%
How much for "Elvis Priestley", though?
I'm positive that Scott WILL fall well short of Jack's vote percentage. It's almost a sure thing. Scott is not the leader of the party and is brand new so doesn't have anywhere near Jack's profile in the riding. And even Jack didn't get 50% of the votes in the election previous to 2011 - he only got about 45% of the vote in 2008.
Gordon is campaigning heavily, and has some hard-hitting, excellent literature at the door. The latest leaflet we've received continues on the theme of his original nomination leaflet where he appeals to voters from every party, in bright primary party colours. Bob Rae has been campaigning heavily with him in this riding as well.
The orange machine is hard at work here, and radiorahim tells me that most of the NDP leadership candidates have shown up to volunteer on the campaign. But the red machine is hard at work here too, and it will make a difference to the outcome. It's a completely different race than 2011.
The number of red signs on our street (a main street) is way, way up from last election, and they're ginormous red signs, not those piddly little ones that no-hope campaigns usually use, so they're pushing really hard here. And I'm seeing red signs on the side streets too, although as RR says, a lot more orange signs overall (including the gigantic one on our tiny little postage-stamp front lawn).
Here's my bold prediction, which of course will be wildly inaccurate because I'm so bad at this:
NDP: 45%
Liberal: 35%
Conservative: 13%
Green: 7%
That's scary close in terms of the gap you project between the Liberals and the NDP. Such a shame if it happens because Craig Scott is an amazing candidate and Grant Gordon...well I'll be nice.
It is a shame but personally I have no idea why someone would vote for Grant Gordon. We got to make sure to get our vote out.
It is a shame but personally I have no idea why someone would vote for Grant Gordon. We got to make sure to get our vote out.
Agreed!
Keep in mind Peter Tabuns won a plurality of votes back in October, just a few votes shy of 20,000.
There is no doubt the Liberals have put on a stronger fight this time around, but so too have the Cons, whose anti-crime literature is aimed at Rae. I still think Scott could squeak in at 50%+ if they don't rest on their laurels the next couple of days.
...and what if Craig Scott actually manages to match or even exceed Jack Layton's 60% vote last May? What will the spin/reaction be to that?
If Craig Scott loses on Monday, I will blame Ed Broadbent and the civil war he has sought to kick off this Thursday:
...and what if Craig Scott actually manages to match or even exceed Jack Layton's 60% vote last May? What will the spin/reaction be to that?
That "they're STILL voting for Jack...they don't realize he's dead...no, wait...it's worse than that...Craig Scott is actually ZOMBIE JACK!"
Opinion polls put us way ahead. However, getting your vote out is so importantin byelections.
Opinion polls put us way ahead. However, getting your vote out is so importantin byelections.
One opinion poll, at the beginning of the race. A few hours is a long time in politics these days...
If Craig Scott loses on Monday, I will blame Ed Broadbent and the civil war he has sought to kick off this Thursday:
Not really sure why that would cause a civil war. Nobody in the NDP is calling for the party to STOP being "left of center"...even those who
self-identify as "moderates".
Oh please, Howard, that is ridiculous. First of all, Craig Scott isn't going to lose. Secondly, if he does, it would be completely and totally ridiculous to blame it on Ed Broadbent. Get real.
You should be happy the by-election is happening before the leadership election, because once Mulcair wins, you'll be losing at least one vote in this riding for as long as he is leader of the party. And you can blame that on Mulcair, not on Broadbent.
(And apparently I'm not the only one. In this poll, they found that support for the NDP in Toronto-Danforth would go down slightly if Mulcair were to win the leadership. And this poll was taken long before Broadbent's comments.)
CFL