Toronto-Danforth byelection - 4

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Michelle

57.6% to 30.1% with 35 polls reporting.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Scott 57.6%

Gordon 30.1%

(35/176 polls now in)

ctrl190

Twitterati suggesting voter turnout in the low 30s, a relatively typical byelection number.

 

Michelle: I think Gordon will eek out 28-32%. They ran a much more visible campaign than Lang did in '11 or '08. Rae will call it a vindication of the party (+leadership), regardless.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

It does look like a lot of Harpercrite supporters are voting tactically for Gordon tonight.  I wonder if any particular pro-Liberal posters will have anything to say about that...given that that seems to be the sole reason for any significant increase in the Liberal vote share tonight.

Michelle

Jack got 60.7% in the last election.  The one before that, he got less than 50%.

The Tory vote has collapsed - it was 14% in the last election and now it's 5.3% so far.  I guess that's where Gordon is picking up most of the votes - someone should let the Tories know that their weirdo attack literature on Bob Rae didn't work.

ctrl190

What a smack in the face if the Cons sit in the single digits.

 

Hard to imagine their "tough on crime" leaflets directed towards bohos, yoga moms and freelance writers didn't resonate.

bekayne

Maybe the Conservatives are supressing their own vote

Michelle

It's interesting, because the Con guy, Keyes, actually ran a campaign.  Not a strong one, but we got literature at the door, which we didn't in 2011.  As I said above, it was really dumb literature, mind you.  I guess it goes to show that the saying "all publicity is good publicity" ain't necessarily so...

ctrl190

Newstalk 1010 - Bob Rae concedes defeat.

Albireo

What a nail-biter for 9th place! John Turmel and the Canadian Action Party tied at 14 votes. The alphabetically-challenged Yazdanfar trails with 7. By all rights the Conservative should be duking it out down there with those guys...

Albireo

{double post}

flight from kamakura

this turnout is looking to get pretty high for a by-election, probably over 30%, really not bad, all things considered.  i bet the voters were just pounded with calls and lit, it was probably willfulness more than ignorance that kept some folks from voting (well, and the belief on the part of some ndp and cpc supporters that the result was a foregone conclusion).

Michelle

The PC Party has a nice lead on the Libertarian candidate...

BTW, that was a humungo ballot we got today.  Jebus.  I couldn't believe all the names on it.  Must have been a full moon when the writ was dropped or something.

Albireo

ctrl190 wrote:

Newstalk 1010 - Bob Rae concedes defeat.

 

Heh... I'd forgotten that he was even running.

ctrl190

Mansbridge makes it official: Craig Scott wins T-D.

 

In other news, Elvis Reincarnated sitting at 22 votes.

Michelle

flight from kamakura wrote:

i bet the voters were just pounded with calls and lit,

Oh, you're not kidding.  Between this by-election and the leadership race, we've had so many phone calls that we just assume now whenever the phone rings, it's the NDP.

edmundoconnor

59.9% with five polls reporting. Scott's lead over Gordon already in three figures.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

In response to Gordon's snarky little tweet earlier in the evening...I think they should play "Viva Las Vegas!" when Scott comes in to make his victory speech!

adma

edmundoconnor wrote:

bekayne wrote:

John Turmel's on the ballot!

In his 76th campaign, and hoping to crack 20 votes.

 

As of this moment, 85 polls in, and he's got 21 (3 more than BahYaz)

Michelle

That tweet wasn't earlier in the evening - that was weeks ago, in February.  But yeah, that would be funny. :) 

Wilf Day

Green closing the gap, only 18 votes behind!

bekayne

Albireo wrote:

What a nail-biter for 9th place! John Turmel and the Canadian Action Party tied at 14 votes.

He should have merged his Abolitionist Party with the Canada Party when he had the chance

Michelle

Yeah, I really want the Greens to beat the Tories too!

bekayne

Wilf Day wrote:

Green closing the gap, only 18 votes behind!

13 votes now

Albireo

Nice to see the Green gaining on the Conservative. (The Cons would look fine in 4th place!)

 

After 95/196 polls:

Conservative Andrew Keyes 637 5.0%

Green Party Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu 593 4.9%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Now the Green is within 13 votes of Keyes.  Who'd a-thunk it?

ctrl190

Twitter: Roars of laughter at NDP Party when Con numbers announced.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Also, if Rae was hoping that his efforts in Danforth might give him a permanent grip on the LPC leadership...it doesn't look like that panned out for him tonight.  Failing to crack 30% is a pretty devastating setback for him.

Michelle

This is cute:

Quote:

Conservatives: Who cares? We weren’t going to win anyway!

NDP: We won! And look how bad the Conservatives did!

Liberals: Our share of the vote went way up! And look how bad the Conservatives did!

Greens: We almost beat the Conservatives!

Michelle

Ken Burch wrote:

Now the Green is within 13 votes of Keyes.  Who'd a-thunk it?

That's not unusual in this riding.  The Cons and Greens are usually neck-and-neck, and two elections ago, the Greens beat the Cons.

janfromthebruce

good one Michelle - so are we cheering for the Greens now - go Greens and beat the Cons! Kiss

what's the tweeter freed tag?

edmundoconnor

59.9% with five polls reporting. Scott's lead over Gordon already in three figures.

Michelle

Well, of course!  I'm quite happy for the Greens to beat the Cons!  Heck, I'd be happy if the Libertarians and the Animal Alliance Party did too! :)

jerrym

Results are from Elections Canada: (looks like slightly better than 2 to 1 victory over Liberals)

NDP Craig Scott  10,302  59.2%

Liberal  Grant Gordon  5,004 28.8%

Conservative Andrew Keyes 905  5.2%

Green PartyAdriana Mugnatto-Hamu 843  4.8%

125/ 196 Polls

Michelle

I know this is persnickety, but we're listening to Evan Solomon's analysis on The National right now. 

Talking about the last election, he said that Layton got 60% and the Liberals got 18%. 

Where I get picky is that he rounded down to 60% for Layton's vote, and rounded up to 18% for the Liberals.  Layton got 60.8% while Lang got 17.68%.

I know, I know, it's just a little thing.  But still.

edmundoconnor

.

edmundoconnor

.

ctrl190

It looks like Scott will be finishing in the high 50's. I was admittedly a bit pessismistic, what with the bombardment of Liberal literature and a sizeable sign campaign. Alas, it would seem that they stole more thunder from the Cons than they did with the NDP. Maybe his whole "hockey dad" image worked well with the right wingers.

adma

Essentially, this is a BC result.  The NDP vs the "united right" under the Liberal label, with Conservatives, Green, whatever picking up the scraps.

 

(Memo to the "untite-the-left-under-the-Liberals" crowd)

algomafalcon

So the greater Liberal spin is this means the Liberals are totally on track to take 9 seats from the Cons and 3 back from the NDP in the next election. 

I think the saying is "Turning a sow's ear into a silk purse." ;-)

adma

ctrl190 wrote:
Maybe his whole "hockey dad" image worked well with the right wingers.

Hockey dad vs LGBTer, I suppose.

algomafalcon

adma wrote:

Essentially, this is a BC result.  The NDP vs the "united right" under the Liberal label, with Conservatives, Green, whatever picking up the scraps.

 

(Memo to the "untite-the-left-under-the-Liberals" crowd)

 

That is just complete and utter baseless hogwash. All it indicates is that either the conservative vote collapsed, or they stayed home. We are also talking VERY LOW voter turnout.

But another classic example of the phrase, "Figures don't lie, but liars figure".

 

radiorahim radiorahim's picture

Well I must admit that living in a community where 95% of the voters have rejected the Harper agenda is truly a wonderful thing Cool

That's about as close to unanimous as it gets!

 

jerrym

NDP Craig Scott  15,062  59.6%

Liberal  Grant Gordon  7,232 28.6%

Conservative Andrew Keyes 1,305  5.2%

Green PartyAdriana Mugnatto-Hamu 1,191  4.7%

160/ 196 Polls

flight from kamakura

nice, looks like the victory is running over 30 percentage points.  though the liberals raised their percentage of the vote, i can't think of any measure by which a 30-point loss could be described as even a moral victory.

janfromthebruce

They both should have been rounded up - but we know that Solomon isn't an NDP supporter - lol. It wasn't even funny typing that.

 

Michelle wrote:

I know this is persnickety, but we're listening to Evan Solomon's analysis on The National right now. 

Talking about the last election, he said that Layton got 60% and the Liberals got 18%. 

Where I get picky is that he rounded down to 60% for Layton's vote, and rounded up to 18% for the Liberals.  Layton got 60.8% while Lang got 17.68%.

I know, I know, it's just a little thing.  But still.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

Out of interest, does anyone know of the last time the Cons got less than 6% of the vote in any riding... election or byelection?

Anyone care to join me in a happy dance of schadenfreude?

socialdemocrati...

Interesting to see we held our proportion of the vote.

The turnout is lower than the general eleciton. But that's typical. Just to give some general perspective, Mulcair won his by-election and the turnout was about 24k, which is 60% of what you might see in a general election.

Liberals increased their proportion of the vote. A lot of that might have to do with a lack of Conservative turnout. You get the impression they didn't try very hard. But that would cut both ways -- higher conservative turnout would eat into Mr. Scott's percentage.

Either way, it's great news for the NDP, terrible news for the Conservatives. The Liberal party might celebrate the increase in %, but it's too isolated and circumstantial to know what it means.

janfromthebruce

I'm dancing bagkitty

NorthReport

bagkitty that's a great pic - tks for that.

60% is so sweet. It's like being Cons in parts of Alberta. Laughing

Liberals thoroughly trounced and the Cons DESTROYED tonite in the Danforth.

You can try and keep that divisive firewall up Steevie, but we're coming to get you, and in Alberta as well.

 

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Canada/20120319/ndp-leads-toronto-danforth-bye...

The Orange Wave was strong in the byelection in Jack Layton's former riding Monday, as NDP candidate Craig Scott, a York University law professor with a long resume of human rights work, won the riding easily.

Scott beat out Liberal candidate Grant Gordon.

"The orange crush is here to stay," said a victorious Scott, as he took to the stage shortly before 10 p.m. on Monday night.

 

Scott said the people of Toronto-Danforth have said "yes" to the party that represents hope and optimism.

 

The NDP will take on Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party in Ottawa, Scott said.

 

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