Toronto-Danforth byelection - 4

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

In a UK election, the showing of the Harpercrite candidate tonight would come close to resulting in the loss of the "deposit", the cash payment candidates have to make to stand in a an election.

Wilf Day

Party, 2011; 2012
NDP 29,235; 16,810
Lib 8,472; 8,028
Con 6,885; 1,507
Green 3,107; 1,321

flight from kamakura

astonishingly high turnout, still 10 polls to go and it's 41% of registered (hehe, and an advance of nearly 10.000 votes for the good guys).

janfromthebruce

That's very interesting Wilf - it looks like we didn't get our voters out but we had so many more than the others that it didn't make a difference in the end result. The big difference was that the Libs held their vote and got it out and/or (and we won't know) the previous con voters switched to lib.

I don't think that those who voted NDP last time had the same urge to get out and vote - perhaps because there was a strong sense of the NDP winning no matter what happen.

adma

bagkitty wrote:

Out of interest, does anyone know of the last time the Cons got less than 6% of the vote in any riding... election or byelection?

I think that might have been the case in some Quebec ridings last time out.

In Ontario, the nearest recent case was...Loftus Cuddy, here, in 2004 (6.2%)

janfromthebruce

maybe I should wait until all the polls are in -

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

The Liberal vote percentage tonight in T/D was below their vote share in 2006 and 2008(to say nothing of 2004 and earlier).

Wilf Day

bagkitty wrote:

Out of interest, does anyone know of the last time the Cons got less than 6% of the vote in any riding... election or byelection?

Hardly ever happened last May. Three Quebec ridings:

Laurier-Sainte-Marie 3.5%

Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie 4.3%

Papineau 4.7%

Albireo

The late-reporting polls are normally strongly NDP, at all 3 levels of gov't. Even as leader Layton trailed early in an election or 2, and then won comfortably by the end.

So there's a good chance that Scott will easily be over 60%, and Gordon will slide down a bit. Maybe 61-27 ?

 

EDIT: Oops, looks like it stayed about the same, about 59.5-28.5 ... Still a great win, by more than a 2-1 margin.

jerrym

It's all over except for the crying (by Liberals and Conservatives)

NDP Craig Scott  19,084  59.4%

Liberal  Grant Gordon  9,185 28.6%

Conservative Andrew Keyes 1,730  5.4%

Green PartyAdriana Mugnatto-Hamu 1,515  4.7%

195/ 196 Polls

Wilf Day

Final:

Party, 2011; 2012

NDP 29,235; 19,210

Lib 8,472; 9,215

Con 6,885; 1,736

Green 3,107; 1,517

nicky

Bob Rae invested a lot of capital in TD.

He was very conspicuous campaignning for Gordon. His pictures were larger and more prominent than Gordon's.

He represents the adjoining riding.

He used to represent the major portion of TD when he was an NDP MP.

This is a very bad night for him. 

Nice to see Mulcair, Topp, Nash and Dewar at the Opera House for Craig's celebration.

flight from kamakura

43.5% turnout, 10,000 vote majority, amazing new mp who has already been caucusing and no doubt slip into a very prominent critic role next week - not bad for 4 days out of convention.

we'll keep dominating news this week, into the weekend, at the start of next week, and hopefully into next week until the budget comes - a springboard to drowning out the liberals' bleats and polarizing the budget debate into ndp vs cpc, opposition vs government.  all in all, a nice result here tonight.

Howard

So glad Smile

flight from kamakura

wow, check out the photo accompanying the cbc story:

[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/Qz7K0.jpg[/IMG]

jeez, how many mps can you squeeze into a victory photo?

ctrl190

I am more than happy to have been wrong by +11%

Wilf Day

nicky wrote:

Bob Rae invested a lot of capital in TD.

He was very conspicuous campaignning for Gordon. His pictures were larger and more prominent than Gordon's.

He represents the adjoining riding.

He used to represent the major portion of TD when he was an NDP MP.

This is a very bad night for him. 

Interesting posts on Facebook page of our local Liberal past candidate:

"Honoured to have worked with such an amazing group of dedicated lpc volunteers on the GrantGordonLib campaign in TorDan. Inspiring. We doubled the vote share, 2015 will be a shoe-in!"

flight from kamakura

if by "shoe-in" it is meant "crucifixion", i can't agree more.  Money mouth

howeird beale

Watched Grant Gordon's concession speech.

You could see Rae et al wincing the entire time he spoke.

At one point he smilingly referred to Craig as a 'bugger.'

Am I paranoid or is that WAY out of line?

 

Idealistic Prag... Idealistic Pragmatist's picture

janfromthebruce wrote:

That's very interesting Wilf - it looks like we didn't get our voters out but we had so many more than the others that it didn't make a difference in the end result. The big difference was that the Libs held their vote and got it out and/or (and we won't know) the previous con voters switched to lib.

I don't think that those who voted NDP last time had the same urge to get out and vote - perhaps because there was a strong sense of the NDP winning no matter what happen.

I read things differently, actually. This was a byelection, which means that turnout is always lower--much lower. What's surprising, then, are the Liberal numbers. Because the Conservatives went down so much in actual numbers, though, I'd guess this is a matter of former Conservative voters turning to the Liberals rather than the Liberals holding onto all of the voters they got in the 2011 election (very unlikely in any byelection).

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

howeird beale wrote:

Watched Grant Gordon's concession speech.

You could see Rae et al wincing the entire time he spoke.

At one point he smilingly referred to Craig as a 'bugger.'

Am I paranoid or is that WAY out of line?

 

No. you're right...it IS way out of line.  It also begs the question of what might have happened to Gordon's vote share if he'd been caught on tape or camera saying that BEFORE the votes were cast.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

howeird beale wrote:

Watched Grant Gordon's concession speech.

You could see Rae et al wincing the entire time he spoke.

At one point he smilingly referred to Craig as a 'bugger.'

Am I paranoid or is that WAY out of line?

 

No. you're right...it IS way out of line.  It also begs the question of what might have happened to Gordon's vote share if he'd been caught on tape or camera saying that BEFORE the votes were cast.

MegB

CFL

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