Toronto-Danforth by-election 2

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Catchfire Catchfire's picture
Toronto-Danforth by-election 2

Continued from here (and moved to the Ontario forum).

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Michelle

I was amused by Stockholm's post in the other thread:

Quote:

The federal NDP caucus is now 40% female and while that is not quite 50% its getting close enough that its hard to argue that the next NDP candidate in T-D asbolutely has to be a woman.

40% huh?  Heck, that's only a third more men in caucus than women - that's practically equality, right?  Certainly when women earned a third less than men, we considered that close enough to be equal...didn't we?

I would personally be happier if the NDP decided "not to stop until the job was done" when it comes to gender equity in caucus.

edmundoconnor

I am asking this in the spirit of genuine curiosity: how would trans candidates fit into this dynamic of gender equity? By the very fact of having a trans candidate, you're automatically not going to have 50% female candidates / 50% male candidates.

Michelle

I have no problem with trans candidates at all, and would consider it an improvement if the NDP were to run a trans candidate in a riding that is easily winnable like T-D, whether that person identifies as male or female.  Obviously, having a trans candidate would contribute to fulfilling the vision of ensuring that marginalized communities are represented within the caucus.

But I have a feeling that, since the NDP has never to my knowledge ran a trans candidate (or, at least, not in a riding that is winnable), and since not one name of a trans person has come up in any thread about the leadership or in these threads about T-D, this question is really a diversion from the issue of gender equity, which still eludes all parties, including the NDP.

Wilf Day

Michelle wrote:

I would personally be happier if the NDP decided "not to stop until the job was done" when it comes to gender equity in caucus.

Quebec NDP MPs who are women: 45.8% of that caucus.

ROC NDP MPs who are women: 29.5%.

The job isn't done yet.

David Young

Wilf Day wrote:
Michelle wrote:

I would personally be happier if the NDP decided "not to stop until the job was done" when it comes to gender equity in caucus.

Quebec NDP MPs who are women: 45.8% of that caucus.

ROC NDP MPs who are women: 29.5%.

The job isn't done yet.

Agreed!  There needs to be more female M.P.s, specificially New Democrats.

Here in South Shore-Margaret's, since Gordon Earle has let it be known that he will not be a candidate in the next election, the local New Democrats have already started work on finding the first-ever female NDP candidate here in S.S.S.M., which is very high on the NDP target list of ridings where a Conservative can be beaten (provided the Liberal vote doesn't collapse even more and go to the Conservatives, as it did on May 2nd!)

Perhaps the success on May 2nd will convince Alexis MacDonald to return as NDP candidate in Central Nova, and then we'd be rid of Keddy and McKay in 2015!!!

 

Stockholm

edmundoconnor wrote:

I am asking this in the spirit of genuine curiosity: how would trans candidates fit into this dynamic of gender equity? By the very fact of having a trans candidate, you're automatically not going to have 50% female candidates / 50% male candidates.

Does anyone know btw what percentage of the adult Canadian population is "trans"? I've never actually seen a statistic.

thomaus

As a Toronto Danforth resident, I'd been wondering where the coverage was on who would be running in our riding. I should have just been reading this thread.

I hope that none of the lefties on council think of running. We have a real battle fighting the Ford administration, and every seat counts there, as much or more than in Ottawa.

Marilyn Churley would be a neighbourhood natural for the seat. (The Communists used to have an office right above her MPP constituancy office on the Danforth, if I remember right.) I don't think the riding would appreciate an outsider running here. I remember Jack getting some flac from people here that thought he didin't care enough about the riding. But he did have strong connections here, dating back to being a city councillor here. There is a lot of active citizen power here from both the NDP-Riverdale side and Liberal-East York side. If the Liberals run anyone stronger than Andrew Lang, they would get about a third of the vote. If the NDP parachutes someone in, and backlash develops, the seat could be lost.

Of those mentioned so far, Michael Rachlis in interesting. According to his bio, he has had ties to the riding. Rick Mercer is also interesting as the Canadian Al Franken. But would that work here? Doug Ford has been prodding Margaret Atwood to run for office, but she's fairly old, and I don't know where she lives in town. 

For now I'd say Churley is probably the best fit.

On a similar topic. How does one join a party? There is a form on the NDP site. But is that universal for both provincial and federal? Or should I call the T-D office? Or should I wait until the leadership campaign and 'buy' a membership then? Reading Jack's thoughts over the past week has inspired me to get a bit more involved. 

radiorahim radiorahim's picture

The Toronto Danforth NDP riding association website is here with contact info.

janfromthebruce

And phone the campaign office and they will help you with your membership application. One membership that is both provincial and federal - welcome thomaus. Kiss

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

thomaus wrote:

 

Marilyn Churley would be a neighbourhood natural for the seat. (The Communists used to have an office right above her MPP constituancy office on the Danforth, if I remember right.)

What if they did?  Are you trying to imply something about her by pointing that out?

Olly

Jian Ghomeshi would be a good candidate. I have no idea if he's thinking about making that jump, but the riding is full of people living and working in the arts. The candidate should reflect that in some way.

MegB

thomaus wrote:

Marilyn Churley would be a neighbourhood natural for the seat. (The Communists used to have an office right above her MPP constituancy office on the Danforth, if I remember right.) I don't think the riding would appreciate an outsider running here. I remember Jack getting some flac from people here that thought he didin't care enough about the riding. But he did have strong connections here, dating back to being a city councillor here. There is a lot of active citizen power here from both the NDP-Riverdale side and Liberal-East York side. If the Liberals run anyone stronger than Andrew Lang, they would get about a third of the vote. If the NDP parachutes someone in, and backlash develops, the seat could be lost.

Of those mentioned so far, Michael Rachlis in interesting. According to his bio, he has had ties to the riding. Rick Mercer is also interesting as the Canadian Al Franken. But would that work here? Doug Ford has been prodding Margaret Atwood to run for office, but she's fairly old, and I don't know where she lives in town. 

For now I'd say Churley is probably the best fit.

Margaret Atwood is 8 years older than Marilyn. Churley.  Besides, since when was 71 "fairly old" for a woman in the 21st century?  Toronto activist Bea Levis is in her 90s. Born in 1917, Indian Prime Minister Indira Ghandi was still very actively in office at 68 when she was assasinated.

Also, regardless where Ms. Atwood lives, I suspect she wouldn't piss on Doug Ford if he were on fire, so it's unlikely she'd be prodded by the taunts of that borderline-literate tea party wannabe.  In other words, her age has nothing to do with anything.

Maysie Maysie's picture

Atwood lives in Trinity Spadina. And I think Jian Ghomeshi lives in Toronto Centre. I believe Stephen Page, formerly of the Barenaked Ladies, lives in Toronto Danforth but I don't think him being a candidate is a good idea.

No, I don't stalk Canadian celebrities. Really, I don't.

And a huge no to Rick Mercer, who isn't a lefty what with all the military-worship stuff he does.

Rebecca West wrote:
 Also, regardless where Ms. Atwood lives, I suspect she wouldn't piss on Doug Ford if he were on fire

Hee hee. 

edmundoconnor

Jian is having far too much fun being insulted by Billy Bob and the like to make the jump. A NOW article by him on Jack makes it sound like he's warm to progressive ideas, but he's very far from buying a membership.

Paul Gross

Jian suported Jack in the 2003 leadership contest. I do not know if Jian was an NDP member but usually one does join if you are publically supporting a candidate so you can vote for them.

Krago

I tried to recruit Jian Ghomeshi to run for the NDP provincially in Yorkview in 1990, when he was President of the York Federation of Students.  He declined and George Mammoliti won the nomination.

Olly

Jian lives in Riverdale. He probably won't run, but he'd be great.

KenS

How about the elephant in the room?

Maybe someone noted it in thread 1 that I didnt read. Anyway...

The next leader may not have a seat. And if so, guess where everyone expects per will run?

So much so, that there will be a hue and cry should Harper call for once call a quick by-election... to make it that much harder for a seatless leader to get going.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

All the more reason to make sure the next leader HAS a seat already.  In fact, that scenario should automatically disqualify anyone who isn't an MP.  I mean, with 102 MP's, what possible reason could there still be to choose someone who isn't in the House right now?  It's not as if there's any non-MP's who are that massively superior to the members of the parliamentary caucus.

thomaus

Ken Burch wrote:

thomaus wrote:

(The Communists used to have an office right above her MPP constituancy office on the Danforth, if I remember right.)

What if they did?  Are you trying to imply something about her by pointing that out?

No, I always thought it was kind of cool having them over the Danforth. Don Cherry was right about one thing -- that there are Commies in Toronto. Like that's a bad thing. Maybe someday the general populace will bristle at the term "Tea Partier" or "Gravy Trainer" the same way they have over the "Communist" label.

KenS wrote:

How about the elephant in the room?

...

The next leader may not have a seat. And if so, guess where everyone expects per will run?

I thought the elephant in the room was that Dalton is going to raise taxes. I saw a lady on TV that said it was so.

...

Isn't it a bit presumptious for Toronto-Danforth to get two leaders in a row? What it the rest of the country finds out we have Communist offices right in the riding? So much for the centrist strategy to gain power.Wink

 

Howard

George Strombolopolous? I also like the ideas of Marilyn Churley and Michael Rachlis.

thomaus

Sarah Polley is out. According to the paper she's expecting. 

edmundoconnor

Krago wrote:

I tried to recruit Jian Ghomeshi to run for the NDP provincially in Yorkview in 1990, when he was President of the York Federation of Students.  He declined and George Mammoliti won the nomination.

The mind reels at the alternative history.

lil.Tommy

Olly wrote:

Jian lives in Riverdale. He probably won't run, but he'd be great.

Well its up to the Executive search committee (i believe) to go forth and ask him. I'm quite sure that there will be strong names lining up. My preference (as a TD member) would be for a woman, but Jian would be a well know strongh voice from an underrepresented community (ethnic community and the arts). I think the party is going to be very pre-occupied with the leadership race, and so will members that is until Harper calls for a by-election which could end up in the middle or right near the end of the leadership race.

Newfoundlander_...

Has anyone heard anything on the by-election in the way of candidates?

KenS

I would think that we will not hear anything about candidates, because the expectation, or at least the hope, would be that the Prime Minister will wait until after the leadership race, or call the date for long enough after.

Granted, that is likely not the hope of a lot of riding people. But even in the NDP, with an open seat at the same time as a leadership race, the party will be in practice the ones to decide what goes forward on a formal basis. Really, the party is going to have the final say on timing for ANY by-election.... its just that it is generally a case that you get everything moving as quickly as possible.

But I dont know and cannot guess what all the strategic considerations are. So even if that is the hope, plans may be made. It would be kind of tricky for prospective candidates to be guessing / anticipating. Because if it is going to be after the race, you stand to running a very uphill nomination battle with Brian Topp- whether he is Leader or not.

My guess is that both party and prospective candidates are waiting to see when it is.

But I am also inclined to think there are at least some prospectives doing what they can to gauge potential support. 

 

Newfoundlander_...

KenS wrote:

I would think that we will not hear anything about candidates, because the expectation, or at least the hope, would be that the Prime Minister will wait until after the leadership race, or call the date for long enough after.

Granted, that is likely not the hope of a lot of riding people. But even in the NDP, with an open seat at the same time as a leadership race, the party will be in practice the ones to decide what goes forward on a formal basis. Really, the party is going to have the final say on timing for ANY by-election.... its just that it is generally a case that you get everything moving as quickly as possible.

But I dont know and cannot guess what all the strategic considerations are. So even if that is the hope, plans may be made. It would be kind of tricky for prospective candidates to be guessing / anticipating. Because if it is going to be after the race, you stand to running a very uphill nomination battle with Brian Topp- whether he is Leader or not.

My guess is that both party and prospective candidates are waiting to see when it is.

But I am also inclined to think there are at least some prospectives doing what they can to gauge potential support. 

 

The latest I believe the by-election can be called is in January and then it has to be held 36 days after it's called. The by-election will have to occur before the leadership vote.

KenS

No, someone will tell us the exact length.... but it can be called for about 6 months later.

Newfoundlander_...

KenS wrote:

No, someone will tell us the exact length.... but it can be called for about 6 months later.

It has been over 3 months already. Layton died on August 22, the election must be called within 180 days, which means it must be called on February 26, 2012, at the latest.

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=bkg&document=ec90700&lang=e

youngsocialist

Jian Ghomesh as the candidate? Well goddamn, does the NDP wants to shoot itself in the foot?

I would not mind Marilyn Churley.. She would make a far more genuine candidate than say Margaret Atwood..

KenS

"Someone" should definitely speak to the timing possibilities range. 

But it is 180 days after the warrant was issued by the Speaker- whenever that was... that is the deadline for when the date for the writ [eday] has to be issued [day the election is announced]. It can be issued for X amount - a long time- after that.

So, by early in March the eday has to be set- and it can be a long time after that.... long enough after the leadership race is over that the NDP can just wait until then before doing anything about the by-election. If Harper chooses to let it be that way, which would be the custom when its wrapped up with a parties leadership race.

David Young

For those who remember it, back in 2004, Paul Martin was so afraid of seeing Ed Broadbent win the vacant Ottawa Centre seat that he waited until almost the last possible day to call the by-election, and then the date was set for about 8 months later, ensuring that it would be 'folded in' with a general election call coming that year.

With what we've been seeing Harper doing lately, I still think he'll call the Toronto-Danforth by-election for the Monday before the leadership convention, March 19th, just to show that he can irritate an opposition party whenever he wants to.

 

Newfoundlander_...

KenS wrote:

"Someone" should definitely speak to the timing possibilities range. 

But it is 180 days after the warrant was issued by the Speaker- whenever that was... that is the deadline for when the date for the writ [eday] has to be issued [day the election is announced]. It can be issued for X amount - a long time- after that.

So, by early in March the eday has to be set- and it can be a long time after that.... long enough after the leadership race is over that the NDP can just wait until then before doing anything about the by-election. If Harper chooses to let it be that way, which would be the custom when its wrapped up with a parties leadership race.

It was issued the day the seat became vacant, which was the day Jack died. The information is also on PunditsGuide. 

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

"Waiting for Topp" is a big mistake.

Harper could call the election early, Topp could lose the leadership and decide he doesn't want to run after all.

I would much rather see us nominate someone local early, and get them out on the doorstep right away. We shouldn't take any seat for granted.

KenS

It isnt just waiting for Topp. The party would have issues now even if every leadership candidate had a seat- let alone, when has that last happened?

Policywonk

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

KenS wrote:

"Someone" should definitely speak to the timing possibilities range. 

But it is 180 days after the warrant was issued by the Speaker- whenever that was... that is the deadline for when the date for the writ [eday] has to be issued [day the election is announced]. It can be issued for X amount - a long time- after that.

So, by early in March the eday has to be set- and it can be a long time after that.... long enough after the leadership race is over that the NDP can just wait until then before doing anything about the by-election. If Harper chooses to let it be that way, which would be the custom when its wrapped up with a parties leadership race.

It was issued the day the seat became vacant, which was the day Jack died. The information is also on PunditsGuide. 

No. The Speaker officially notified the Chief Electoral Officer of the vacancy August 30th.

http://ndpldr.punditsguide.ca/

A by-election can be called any time between now and February 26th and the by-election would be held at least 36 days later. There is no specified maximum length of the by-election campaign.

KenS

The NDP calling for nominations is a crap shoot around the probabilities. Here is my first run through.

1.] Harper can call the election anytime for 36 days later. It could be a snap call to end any time during or soon after the end of the leadrship race [soon after having the same effect]. They would be most unlikely to get the seat anyway, and look very bad to swing voters they need. In other words: fill your boots boys and girls. Still, if there were not other considerations, you would go ahead and do the nominations anyway. But there are other considerations, so it is a matter of weighing pros and cons of the various courses of action.

2.] Topp has said he will not run if it is called during the leadership race- that he cannot do both at once. Whether it is your intention to wait for him and Singh or not, you still have to consider the 'what ifs'. So what if you nominate someone, and then it turns out Harper does the right thing and waits until the race is over? [If for no other reason than to spite us, given we went ahead and did the nominations. And if Topp or the longshot Singh wins, then what? It will put everyone in a difficult position. A big mess.

Add, amend or critiqe probabilities of options as you like.

Stockholm

One thing we know for sure is that the date for the Danforth byelection has to be set at least a month before the NDP picks a new leader. I don't expect Harper to do the NDP any "favours" setting the byelection date in May or something like that. One way or the other - the writ period starts the day the byelection is called. If Topp wants to run in Danforth and if he won the nomination (not necessarily a foregone conclusion when he is still just a candidate for leader) - then it would give him a bit of an unfair advantage over the other leadership candidates since the party would have to spend something like $80k promoting him in the byelection which would coincide with the final phase of the leadership campaign. Its all a bit of a "sticky wicket". If Topp has a "plan B" in his back pocket to run somewhere else (i.e. maybe there is someone in Quebec who never really wanted to be an MP in the first place and is happy to stand aside for him if he becomes leader) then maybe he is better off announcing that he will NOT run in Danforth.

Newfoundlander_...

Harper will want the NDP to hold this seat, he knows they cannot win it and he'd rather see the NDP take it then the Liberals. I think it's best for the NDP to go ahead and nominate someone soon. The Liberals will be going after this seat, I'm surprised they don't have a candidate yet, and while the NDP shouldn't have trouble holding onto this seat you never know what could happen.

Winnipeg North is a good example of how you cannot assume a seat is safe. Judy Wasylycia-Leis won 63% of the vote in 2008, while the Liberals only won 9%, she resigns and a popular Liberal increased the party's support by 37% to win the seat. 

Stockholm

Actually if Harper had his choice he would probably not mind the Liberals winning an upset victory in Danforth (not that there is much chance of that happening) - its in his interest for the Liberals and NDP to keep fighting each other and to as evenly matched as possible. The last thing he wants is for the Liberal downward spiral to continue and for the anti-Tory vote to totally consolidate behind the NDP.

Peter3

I wouldn't discount the possibility of Peter Tabuns taking a run at it. He's not going to get another stab at ONDP leader before his age become at least a perceived issue and I'm sure the thought of participating a federal caucus of 103 NDPers with official opposition status sounds like fun to him. I'd be surprised if some of the local riding leadership hasn't at least kicked it around with him.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Stockholm wrote:

Actually if Harper had his choice he would probably not mind the Liberals winning an upset victory in Danforth (not that there is much chance of that happening) - its in his interest for the Liberals and NDP to keep fighting each other and to as evenly matched as possible. The last thing he wants is for the Liberal downward spiral to continue and for the anti-Tory vote to totally consolidate behind the NDP.

Do you think it's possible that Harper might be willing to NOT nominate a Tory candidate in the byelection in exchange for the Liberals choosing a nominee from the right wing of their party, and then push for a "coalition" victory against "the socialist hordes", as W.A.C. Bennett might say?

I can almost picture Harper being open to creating a national version of the old B.C. Socreds, the "Yukon Party" or the "Saskatchewan Party"...perhaps they'd call it the Canada Party?

KenS

 You can forget about that scenario. If for no other reason- kiss of death for the Liberals.

 

Topp has been saying that if the by- is called during the race he will not offer.

Technically, it will be called during the race. So, presumably that means called, and eday too close to be thinking of nominations after the race is over. I think Stockholm gave another reason for this.

Its not a formal announcement per se, but I heard it from him as an answer at a meet and greet.... a question he probably gets at virtually every event where there are questions put to him.

He also ansers that a seat is important but not critical ASAP. Whether or not you agree with that, it butresses his intention viz the what ifs of running in Danforth or not.

Wilf Day

Stockholm wrote:

If Topp has a "plan B" in his back pocket to run somewhere else (i.e. maybe there is someone in Quebec who never really wanted to be an MP in the first place and is happy to stand aside for him if he becomes leader) then maybe he is better off announcing that he will NOT run in Danforth.

And who might that be? Our oldest MP, Lise St-Denis is 70. A retired teacher, she ran in 2008 in the Montreal suburb of Longueuil where she lives. This year she was parachuted in Chretien's old riding of Saint-Maurice, far away, where she had no ties; she edged the Bloc by 4,600 votes. Shortly after her election, St-Denis was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. But Brian Topp has no ties to Saint-Maurice either.

Who else?

Dr. Djaouida Sellah in Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert, where she beat the Bloc by 9,000 votes? Maybe she wants to go back to practicing medicine? However, she's a Mulcair supporter.

Tyrone Benskin, his presumed ACTRA ally? Never presume: Benskin hasn't endorsed anyone.

Stockholm

Topp's home riding where he grew up in St. lambert. The NDP MP there is Sadia Groguhe, but I have no idea if she is one of the ones who might be looking for an "out". There is another issue no one has mentioned if there was a by election in Quebec. The front runner to succeed Duceppe as BQ leader is the rightwing ex-PQ cabinet Daniel Paille. He lost the NDP in Hochelaga in may and if he becomes leader he also needs a seat. If an NDP MP from a riding that the NDP took from the BQ stepped aside, it would be hard for Paille to avoid running there - setting up a very high stakes NDP/BQ by election.

robbie_dee

I think a good option for Topp could be Hull-Aylmer. Nycole Turmel has capped off a stellar career with a stint as Opposition leader, but any shadow cabinet position after her current one will be a step down. She'll be 72 by the time of the next election, so even if the NDP became the government she may be too old for a cabinet position. I could see her stepping aside sooner, for the good of the party, if the new leader needs a seat.

As for Toronto Danforth, is there any talk of Mike or Sarah Layton running for the seat?

Newfoundlander_...

I doubt there will be to many MPs willing to give up a $100,000+ job unless they get something out of it. 

Stockholm

robbie_dee wrote:

As for Toronto Danforth, is there any talk of Mike or Sarah Layton running for the seat?

Absolutely none. Sarah has a young daughter and is pregnant again and i have no idea if she has any interest in running for public office. Mike Layton is just one year into being the city councillor for Trinity-Spadina across town and he seems to have a pretty high profile already and is emerging as one of the key "leaders of the opposition" to Ford. If he ever wanted to move up to another level of government - it would make more sense for him to focus on his current job someday run in Trinity-Spadina when Marchese or Olivia Chow retire.

Danforth should be an NDP lock no matter what - so its not as if the party desparately needs someone with the last name Layton to be able to hold it. As for Peter Tabuns - I'm sure the guy would rather be an MP than be an MPP - but the fact is he ran for re-election to the Ontario legislature just a month ago despite knowing that the federal seat was vacant - I think the idea of him resigning so soon after being re-elected and sparking a provincial byelection in the same riding where there will be a federal byelection is ludicrous.

KenS

I think the bottom line on Topp is that he does not have any reason to worry about a seat should he bacome Leader. That he is not just giving that implicit message because he needs to.

1. He needs to win the leadership.

2. He needs to win the leadership.

3. If he wins, and nominations are not closed for Danforth. Perfect. [And likely the same for if he does not win the leadership.]

4. If it is not THAT easy, there are a number of possibilities for a seat where we are not losing someone who wants to be there.

5. But even that isnt necessary. If getting a seat is in the indefinite future- big deal, he's the Leader of the Opposition. He will not have to jump in front of the microphones like Jack did when he was a seatless newbie Leader of a small Caucus.

 

That said, I still think that does not make the choice of when to push the nomination process an easy one for the party.

KenS

If the seat is still open for nominations after the race, I would not be surprised to see Martin Singh offer.

I think he is probably in this come what may. But even if he did follow up the leadership race with a run for a seat, and it did not have to be Nova Scotia... it would also make sense to take a pass on Danforth that a number of others want... and take a run at a Conservative held seat in Mississauga or Brampton, where it will be otherwise probably a long shot for us.

That is by the way not based on any inside information. Beyond the fact that Martin is a positive, charming and persistent guy who is not going to be looking at one big role of the dice.

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