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I was amused by Stockholm's post in the other thread:
The federal NDP caucus is now 40% female and while that is not quite 50% its getting close enough that its hard to argue that the next NDP candidate in T-D asbolutely has to be a woman.
40% huh? Heck, that's only a third more men in caucus than women - that's practically equality, right? Certainly when women earned a third less than men, we considered that close enough to be equal...didn't we?
I would personally be happier if the NDP decided "not to stop until the job was done" when it comes to gender equity in caucus.
I am asking this in the spirit of genuine curiosity: how would trans candidates fit into this dynamic of gender equity? By the very fact of having a trans candidate, you're automatically not going to have 50% female candidates / 50% male candidates.
I have no problem with trans candidates at all, and would consider it an improvement if the NDP were to run a trans candidate in a riding that is easily winnable like T-D, whether that person identifies as male or female. Obviously, having a trans candidate would contribute to fulfilling the vision of ensuring that marginalized communities are represented within the caucus.
But I have a feeling that, since the NDP has never to my knowledge ran a trans candidate (or, at least, not in a riding that is winnable), and since not one name of a trans person has come up in any thread about the leadership or in these threads about T-D, this question is really a diversion from the issue of gender equity, which still eludes all parties, including the NDP.
I would personally be happier if the NDP decided "not to stop until the job was done" when it comes to gender equity in caucus.
Quebec NDP MPs who are women: 45.8% of that caucus.
ROC NDP MPs who are women: 29.5%.
The job isn't done yet.
I would personally be happier if the NDP decided "not to stop until the job was done" when it comes to gender equity in caucus.
Quebec NDP MPs who are women: 45.8% of that caucus.
ROC NDP MPs who are women: 29.5%.
The job isn't done yet.
Agreed! There needs to be more female M.P.s, specificially New Democrats.
Here in South Shore-Margaret's, since Gordon Earle has let it be known that he will not be a candidate in the next election, the local New Democrats have already started work on finding the first-ever female NDP candidate here in S.S.S.M., which is very high on the NDP target list of ridings where a Conservative can be beaten (provided the Liberal vote doesn't collapse even more and go to the Conservatives, as it did on May 2nd!)
Perhaps the success on May 2nd will convince Alexis MacDonald to return as NDP candidate in Central Nova, and then we'd be rid of Keddy and McKay in 2015!!!
I am asking this in the spirit of genuine curiosity: how would trans candidates fit into this dynamic of gender equity? By the very fact of having a trans candidate, you're automatically not going to have 50% female candidates / 50% male candidates.
Does anyone know btw what percentage of the adult Canadian population is "trans"? I've never actually seen a statistic.
As a Toronto Danforth resident, I'd been wondering where the coverage was on who would be running in our riding. I should have just been reading this thread.
I hope that none of the lefties on council think of running. We have a real battle fighting the Ford administration, and every seat counts there, as much or more than in Ottawa.
Marilyn Churley would be a neighbourhood natural for the seat. (The Communists used to have an office right above her MPP constituancy office on the Danforth, if I remember right.) I don't think the riding would appreciate an outsider running here. I remember Jack getting some flac from people here that thought he didin't care enough about the riding. But he did have strong connections here, dating back to being a city councillor here. There is a lot of active citizen power here from both the NDP-Riverdale side and Liberal-East York side. If the Liberals run anyone stronger than Andrew Lang, they would get about a third of the vote. If the NDP parachutes someone in, and backlash develops, the seat could be lost.
Of those mentioned so far, Michael Rachlis in interesting. According to his bio, he has had ties to the riding. Rick Mercer is also interesting as the Canadian Al Franken. But would that work here? Doug Ford has been prodding Margaret Atwood to run for office, but she's fairly old, and I don't know where she lives in town.
For now I'd say Churley is probably the best fit.
On a similar topic. How does one join a party? There is a form on the NDP site. But is that universal for both provincial and federal? Or should I call the T-D office? Or should I wait until the leadership campaign and 'buy' a membership then? Reading Jack's thoughts over the past week has inspired me to get a bit more involved.
The Toronto Danforth NDP riding association website is here with contact info.
And phone the campaign office and they will help you with your membership application. One membership that is both provincial and federal - welcome thomaus.
Marilyn Churley would be a neighbourhood natural for the seat. (The Communists used to have an office right above her MPP constituancy office on the Danforth, if I remember right.)
What if they did? Are you trying to imply something about her by pointing that out?
Jian Ghomeshi would be a good candidate. I have no idea if he's thinking about making that jump, but the riding is full of people living and working in the arts. The candidate should reflect that in some way.
Marilyn Churley would be a neighbourhood natural for the seat. (The Communists used to have an office right above her MPP constituancy office on the Danforth, if I remember right.) I don't think the riding would appreciate an outsider running here. I remember Jack getting some flac from people here that thought he didin't care enough about the riding. But he did have strong connections here, dating back to being a city councillor here. There is a lot of active citizen power here from both the NDP-Riverdale side and Liberal-East York side. If the Liberals run anyone stronger than Andrew Lang, they would get about a third of the vote. If the NDP parachutes someone in, and backlash develops, the seat could be lost.
Of those mentioned so far, Michael Rachlis in interesting. According to his bio, he has had ties to the riding. Rick Mercer is also interesting as the Canadian Al Franken. But would that work here? Doug Ford has been prodding Margaret Atwood to run for office, but she's fairly old, and I don't know where she lives in town.
For now I'd say Churley is probably the best fit.
Margaret Atwood is 8 years older than Marilyn. Churley. Besides, since when was 71 "fairly old" for a woman in the 21st century? Toronto activist Bea Levis is in her 90s. Born in 1917, Indian Prime Minister Indira Ghandi was still very actively in office at 68 when she was assasinated.
Also, regardless where Ms. Atwood lives, I suspect she wouldn't piss on Doug Ford if he were on fire, so it's unlikely she'd be prodded by the taunts of that borderline-literate tea party wannabe. In other words, her age has nothing to do with anything.
Atwood lives in Trinity Spadina. And I think Jian Ghomeshi lives in Toronto Centre. I believe Stephen Page, formerly of the Barenaked Ladies, lives in Toronto Danforth but I don't think him being a candidate is a good idea.
No, I don't stalk Canadian celebrities. Really, I don't.
And a huge no to Rick Mercer, who isn't a lefty what with all the military-worship stuff he does.
Hee hee.
Jian is having far too much fun being insulted by Billy Bob and the like to make the jump. A NOW article by him on Jack makes it sound like he's warm to progressive ideas, but he's very far from buying a membership.
Jian suported Jack in the 2003 leadership contest. I do not know if Jian was an NDP member but usually one does join if you are publically supporting a candidate so you can vote for them.
I tried to recruit Jian Ghomeshi to run for the NDP provincially in Yorkview in 1990, when he was President of the York Federation of Students. He declined and George Mammoliti won the nomination.
Jian lives in Riverdale. He probably won't run, but he'd be great.
How about the elephant in the room?
Maybe someone noted it in thread 1 that I didnt read. Anyway...
The next leader may not have a seat. And if so, guess where everyone expects per will run?
So much so, that there will be a hue and cry should Harper call for once call a quick by-election... to make it that much harder for a seatless leader to get going.
All the more reason to make sure the next leader HAS a seat already. In fact, that scenario should automatically disqualify anyone who isn't an MP. I mean, with 102 MP's, what possible reason could there still be to choose someone who isn't in the House right now? It's not as if there's any non-MP's who are that massively superior to the members of the parliamentary caucus.
(The Communists used to have an office right above her MPP constituancy office on the Danforth, if I remember right.)
What if they did? Are you trying to imply something about her by pointing that out?
No, I always thought it was kind of cool having them over the Danforth. Don Cherry was right about one thing -- that there are Commies in Toronto. Like that's a bad thing. Maybe someday the general populace will bristle at the term "Tea Partier" or "Gravy Trainer" the same way they have over the "Communist" label.
How about the elephant in the room?
...
The next leader may not have a seat. And if so, guess where everyone expects per will run?
I thought the elephant in the room was that Dalton is going to raise taxes. I saw a lady on TV that said it was so.
...
Isn't it a bit presumptious for Toronto-Danforth to get two leaders in a row? What it the rest of the country finds out we have Communist offices right in the riding? So much for the centrist strategy to gain power.
George Strombolopolous? I also like the ideas of Marilyn Churley and Michael Rachlis.
Sarah Polley is out. According to the paper she's expecting.
I tried to recruit Jian Ghomeshi to run for the NDP provincially in Yorkview in 1990, when he was President of the York Federation of Students. He declined and George Mammoliti won the nomination.
The mind reels at the alternative history.
Jian lives in Riverdale. He probably won't run, but he'd be great.
Well its up to the Executive search committee (i believe) to go forth and ask him. I'm quite sure that there will be strong names lining up. My preference (as a TD member) would be for a woman, but Jian would be a well know strongh voice from an underrepresented community (ethnic community and the arts). I think the party is going to be very pre-occupied with the leadership race, and so will members that is until Harper calls for a by-election which could end up in the middle or right near the end of the leadership race.
Has anyone heard anything on the by-election in the way of candidates?
I would think that we will not hear anything about candidates, because the expectation, or at least the hope, would be that the Prime Minister will wait until after the leadership race, or call the date for long enough after.
Granted, that is likely not the hope of a lot of riding people. But even in the NDP, with an open seat at the same time as a leadership race, the party will be in practice the ones to decide what goes forward on a formal basis. Really, the party is going to have the final say on timing for ANY by-election.... its just that it is generally a case that you get everything moving as quickly as possible.
But I dont know and cannot guess what all the strategic considerations are. So even if that is the hope, plans may be made. It would be kind of tricky for prospective candidates to be guessing / anticipating. Because if it is going to be after the race, you stand to running a very uphill nomination battle with Brian Topp- whether he is Leader or not.
My guess is that both party and prospective candidates are waiting to see when it is.
But I am also inclined to think there are at least some prospectives doing what they can to gauge potential support.
I would think that we will not hear anything about candidates, because the expectation, or at least the hope, would be that the Prime Minister will wait until after the leadership race, or call the date for long enough after.
Granted, that is likely not the hope of a lot of riding people. But even in the NDP, with an open seat at the same time as a leadership race, the party will be in practice the ones to decide what goes forward on a formal basis. Really, the party is going to have the final say on timing for ANY by-election.... its just that it is generally a case that you get everything moving as quickly as possible.
But I dont know and cannot guess what all the strategic considerations are. So even if that is the hope, plans may be made. It would be kind of tricky for prospective candidates to be guessing / anticipating. Because if it is going to be after the race, you stand to running a very uphill nomination battle with Brian Topp- whether he is Leader or not.
My guess is that both party and prospective candidates are waiting to see when it is.
But I am also inclined to think there are at least some prospectives doing what they can to gauge potential support.
The latest I believe the by-election can be called is in January and then it has to be held 36 days after it's called. The by-election will have to occur before the leadership vote.
No, someone will tell us the exact length.... but it can be called for about 6 months later.
No, someone will tell us the exact length.... but it can be called for about 6 months later.
It has been over 3 months already. Layton died on August 22, the election must be called within 180 days, which means it must be called on February 26, 2012, at the latest.
http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=bkg&document=ec90700&lang=e
Jian Ghomesh as the candidate? Well goddamn, does the NDP wants to shoot itself in the foot?
I would not mind Marilyn Churley.. She would make a far more genuine candidate than say Margaret Atwood..
"Someone" should definitely speak to the timing possibilities range.
But it is 180 days after the warrant was issued by the Speaker- whenever that was... that is the deadline for when the date for the writ [eday] has to be issued [day the election is announced]. It can be issued for X amount - a long time- after that.
So, by early in March the eday has to be set- and it can be a long time after that.... long enough after the leadership race is over that the NDP can just wait until then before doing anything about the by-election. If Harper chooses to let it be that way, which would be the custom when its wrapped up with a parties leadership race.
For those who remember it, back in 2004, Paul Martin was so afraid of seeing Ed Broadbent win the vacant Ottawa Centre seat that he waited until almost the last possible day to call the by-election, and then the date was set for about 8 months later, ensuring that it would be 'folded in' with a general election call coming that year.
With what we've been seeing Harper doing lately, I still think he'll call the Toronto-Danforth by-election for the Monday before the leadership convention, March 19th, just to show that he can irritate an opposition party whenever he wants to.
"Someone" should definitely speak to the timing possibilities range.
But it is 180 days after the warrant was issued by the Speaker- whenever that was... that is the deadline for when the date for the writ [eday] has to be issued [day the election is announced]. It can be issued for X amount - a long time- after that.
So, by early in March the eday has to be set- and it can be a long time after that.... long enough after the leadership race is over that the NDP can just wait until then before doing anything about the by-election. If Harper chooses to let it be that way, which would be the custom when its wrapped up with a parties leadership race.
It was issued the day the seat became vacant, which was the day Jack died. The information is also on PunditsGuide.
"Waiting for Topp" is a big mistake.
Harper could call the election early, Topp could lose the leadership and decide he doesn't want to run after all.
I would much rather see us nominate someone local early, and get them out on the doorstep right away. We shouldn't take any seat for granted.
It isnt just waiting for Topp. The party would have issues now even if every leadership candidate had a seat- let alone, when has that last happened?
"Someone" should definitely speak to the timing possibilities range.
But it is 180 days after the warrant was issued by the Speaker- whenever that was... that is the deadline for when the date for the writ [eday] has to be issued [day the election is announced]. It can be issued for X amount - a long time- after that.
So, by early in March the eday has to be set- and it can be a long time after that.... long enough after the leadership race is over that the NDP can just wait until then before doing anything about the by-election. If Harper chooses to let it be that way, which would be the custom when its wrapped up with a parties leadership race.
It was issued the day the seat became vacant, which was the day Jack died. The information is also on PunditsGuide.
No. The Speaker officially notified the Chief Electoral Officer of the vacancy August 30th.
http://ndpldr.punditsguide.ca/
A by-election can be called any time between now and February 26th and the by-election would be held at least 36 days later. There is no specified maximum length of the by-election campaign.
The NDP calling for nominations is a crap shoot around the probabilities. Here is my first run through.
1.] Harper can call the election anytime for 36 days later. It could be a snap call to end any time during or soon after the end of the leadrship race [soon after having the same effect]. They would be most unlikely to get the seat anyway, and look very bad to swing voters they need. In other words: fill your boots boys and girls. Still, if there were not other considerations, you would go ahead and do the nominations anyway. But there are other considerations, so it is a matter of weighing pros and cons of the various courses of action.
2.] Topp has said he will not run if it is called during the leadership race- that he cannot do both at once. Whether it is your intention to wait for him and Singh or not, you still have to consider the 'what ifs'. So what if you nominate someone, and then it turns out Harper does the right thing and waits until the race is over? [If for no other reason than to spite us, given we went ahead and did the nominations. And if Topp or the longshot Singh wins, then what? It will put everyone in a difficult position. A big mess.
Add, amend or critiqe probabilities of options as you like.
One thing we know for sure is that the date for the Danforth byelection has to be set at least a month before the NDP picks a new leader. I don't expect Harper to do the NDP any "favours" setting the byelection date in May or something like that. One way or the other - the writ period starts the day the byelection is called. If Topp wants to run in Danforth and if he won the nomination (not necessarily a foregone conclusion when he is still just a candidate for leader) - then it would give him a bit of an unfair advantage over the other leadership candidates since the party would have to spend something like $80k promoting him in the byelection which would coincide with the final phase of the leadership campaign. Its all a bit of a "sticky wicket". If Topp has a "plan B" in his back pocket to run somewhere else (i.e. maybe there is someone in Quebec who never really wanted to be an MP in the first place and is happy to stand aside for him if he becomes leader) then maybe he is better off announcing that he will NOT run in Danforth.
Harper will want the NDP to hold this seat, he knows they cannot win it and he'd rather see the NDP take it then the Liberals. I think it's best for the NDP to go ahead and nominate someone soon. The Liberals will be going after this seat, I'm surprised they don't have a candidate yet, and while the NDP shouldn't have trouble holding onto this seat you never know what could happen.
Winnipeg North is a good example of how you cannot assume a seat is safe. Judy Wasylycia-Leis won 63% of the vote in 2008, while the Liberals only won 9%, she resigns and a popular Liberal increased the party's support by 37% to win the seat.
Actually if Harper had his choice he would probably not mind the Liberals winning an upset victory in Danforth (not that there is much chance of that happening) - its in his interest for the Liberals and NDP to keep fighting each other and to as evenly matched as possible. The last thing he wants is for the Liberal downward spiral to continue and for the anti-Tory vote to totally consolidate behind the NDP.
I wouldn't discount the possibility of Peter Tabuns taking a run at it. He's not going to get another stab at ONDP leader before his age become at least a perceived issue and I'm sure the thought of participating a federal caucus of 103 NDPers with official opposition status sounds like fun to him. I'd be surprised if some of the local riding leadership hasn't at least kicked it around with him.
Actually if Harper had his choice he would probably not mind the Liberals winning an upset victory in Danforth (not that there is much chance of that happening) - its in his interest for the Liberals and NDP to keep fighting each other and to as evenly matched as possible. The last thing he wants is for the Liberal downward spiral to continue and for the anti-Tory vote to totally consolidate behind the NDP.
Do you think it's possible that Harper might be willing to NOT nominate a Tory candidate in the byelection in exchange for the Liberals choosing a nominee from the right wing of their party, and then push for a "coalition" victory against "the socialist hordes", as W.A.C. Bennett might say?
I can almost picture Harper being open to creating a national version of the old B.C. Socreds, the "Yukon Party" or the "Saskatchewan Party"...perhaps they'd call it the Canada Party?
You can forget about that scenario. If for no other reason- kiss of death for the Liberals.
Topp has been saying that if the by- is called during the race he will not offer.
Technically, it will be called during the race. So, presumably that means called, and eday too close to be thinking of nominations after the race is over. I think Stockholm gave another reason for this.
Its not a formal announcement per se, but I heard it from him as an answer at a meet and greet.... a question he probably gets at virtually every event where there are questions put to him.
He also ansers that a seat is important but not critical ASAP. Whether or not you agree with that, it butresses his intention viz the what ifs of running in Danforth or not.
If Topp has a "plan B" in his back pocket to run somewhere else (i.e. maybe there is someone in Quebec who never really wanted to be an MP in the first place and is happy to stand aside for him if he becomes leader) then maybe he is better off announcing that he will NOT run in Danforth.
And who might that be? Our oldest MP, Lise St-Denis is 70. A retired teacher, she ran in 2008 in the Montreal suburb of Longueuil where she lives. This year she was parachuted in Chretien's old riding of Saint-Maurice, far away, where she had no ties; she edged the Bloc by 4,600 votes. Shortly after her election, St-Denis was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. But Brian Topp has no ties to Saint-Maurice either.
Who else?
Dr. Djaouida Sellah in Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert, where she beat the Bloc by 9,000 votes? Maybe she wants to go back to practicing medicine? However, she's a Mulcair supporter.
Tyrone Benskin, his presumed ACTRA ally? Never presume: Benskin hasn't endorsed anyone.
Topp's home riding where he grew up in St. lambert. The NDP MP there is Sadia Groguhe, but I have no idea if she is one of the ones who might be looking for an "out". There is another issue no one has mentioned if there was a by election in Quebec. The front runner to succeed Duceppe as BQ leader is the rightwing ex-PQ cabinet Daniel Paille. He lost the NDP in Hochelaga in may and if he becomes leader he also needs a seat. If an NDP MP from a riding that the NDP took from the BQ stepped aside, it would be hard for Paille to avoid running there - setting up a very high stakes NDP/BQ by election.
I think a good option for Topp could be Hull-Aylmer. Nycole Turmel has capped off a stellar career with a stint as Opposition leader, but any shadow cabinet position after her current one will be a step down. She'll be 72 by the time of the next election, so even if the NDP became the government she may be too old for a cabinet position. I could see her stepping aside sooner, for the good of the party, if the new leader needs a seat.
As for Toronto Danforth, is there any talk of Mike or Sarah Layton running for the seat?
I doubt there will be to many MPs willing to give up a $100,000+ job unless they get something out of it.
As for Toronto Danforth, is there any talk of Mike or Sarah Layton running for the seat?
Absolutely none. Sarah has a young daughter and is pregnant again and i have no idea if she has any interest in running for public office. Mike Layton is just one year into being the city councillor for Trinity-Spadina across town and he seems to have a pretty high profile already and is emerging as one of the key "leaders of the opposition" to Ford. If he ever wanted to move up to another level of government - it would make more sense for him to focus on his current job someday run in Trinity-Spadina when Marchese or Olivia Chow retire.
Danforth should be an NDP lock no matter what - so its not as if the party desparately needs someone with the last name Layton to be able to hold it. As for Peter Tabuns - I'm sure the guy would rather be an MP than be an MPP - but the fact is he ran for re-election to the Ontario legislature just a month ago despite knowing that the federal seat was vacant - I think the idea of him resigning so soon after being re-elected and sparking a provincial byelection in the same riding where there will be a federal byelection is ludicrous.
I think the bottom line on Topp is that he does not have any reason to worry about a seat should he bacome Leader. That he is not just giving that implicit message because he needs to.
1. He needs to win the leadership.
2. He needs to win the leadership.
3. If he wins, and nominations are not closed for Danforth. Perfect. [And likely the same for if he does not win the leadership.]
4. If it is not THAT easy, there are a number of possibilities for a seat where we are not losing someone who wants to be there.
5. But even that isnt necessary. If getting a seat is in the indefinite future- big deal, he's the Leader of the Opposition. He will not have to jump in front of the microphones like Jack did when he was a seatless newbie Leader of a small Caucus.
That said, I still think that does not make the choice of when to push the nomination process an easy one for the party.
If the seat is still open for nominations after the race, I would not be surprised to see Martin Singh offer.
I think he is probably in this come what may. But even if he did follow up the leadership race with a run for a seat, and it did not have to be Nova Scotia... it would also make sense to take a pass on Danforth that a number of others want... and take a run at a Conservative held seat in Mississauga or Brampton, where it will be otherwise probably a long shot for us.
That is by the way not based on any inside information. Beyond the fact that Martin is a positive, charming and persistent guy who is not going to be looking at one big role of the dice.
I think a good option for Topp could be Hull-Aylmer. Nycole Turmel has capped off a stellar career with a stint as Opposition leader, but any shadow cabinet position after her current one will be a step down. She'll be 72 by the time of the next election, so even if the NDP became the government she may be too old for a cabinet position. I could see her stepping aside sooner, for the good of the party, if the new leader needs a seat.
Very logical, but raises a question for Pierre Ducasse and his fans. He was going to run again in Hull-Aylmer until he stepped aside for Nycole Turmel. Assuming she does not run again in 2015, Pierre would be a logical candidate. If Topp took Hull-Aylmer in a by-election, would he move elsewhere in 2015? Not necessarily.
Pierre did not stand aside for Nycole. He has very young kiids now, and just stood down period. But that does not change your point, and my educated guess is that Pierre will be ready to come back to it whenever there is an opening.
When he stood down it had been nearly 10 years of hard uphill slogging. It is a totaly transformed picture now.
I hope it's Marilyn Churley.
I hope the executive does a better job than Marilyn Churley. Marilyn is pretty much retired into her sweet gig as justice of the peace. If the NDP has to reach into its distant past for a candidate its in bad shape. Sorry - she was a powerful figure in her day but that day has passed. New blood please!
I hope the executive does a better job than Marilyn Churley. Marilyn is pretty much retired into her sweet gig as justice of the peace. If the NDP has to reach into its distant past for a candidate its in bad shape. Sorry - she was a powerful figure in her day but that day has passed. New blood please!
Well it's the riding association who does a candidate search and not the NDP executive!
Given our caucus composition and strategic position, the last thing we need is to add 'new blood'.
We don't need another person who has never held a seat to be figuring out the gig and climbing the learning curve. The many newbies in our caucus would benefit from having someone like Marilyn Churley sharing her 15 years of experience. She's great as a local member, really listening and working with the community and local groups. And she was great as a opposition member for 10 years and as a cabinet minister - she knew how to push issues and make things happen from both sides of the house.
Next election, we need to present ourselves as a government in waiting. We need to show we have people who understand how government work. We don't need a 'ministeriable' person, but a proven, effective minister.
I've lived in Toronto Danforth most of the time since my family moved here when I was kid in the sixties. I've chatted with friends and neighbours over the past weeks and months and there's lots of warmth and affection and support for Marilyn. It's a pretty political, and by that I mean, NDP political riding. People noticed Topp's statement about not running here. It makes sense to us that he should want to concentrate on his leadership bid. It's not like we've got a tiny caucus, public support in the single digits, and a leader desparate to find somewhere they can win in order to get into the House. Time enough.
We've been blessed with many NDP MPPs and MPs here - John Gilbert, Jim Renwick, Bob Rae, Lynn Macdonald, Gary Malkowski, Peter Tabuns, Jack Layton, Marilyn Churley. Marilyn is up there with the best of them, and has always done well here in her home riding where she has such deep roots. I'd love it if she ran, for the sake of the riding, our caucus, and all Canadians who will benefit from electing a New Democrat government in 2015.
I still think there is a limit to how many time you dippers can go back to the same well and replace yourselves with older less impressive versions of yourself. (ie marilyn).
Where ahs it been said that Topp isn't running in Danforth? is that confirmed?
I'm not sure that Joe meant to say that unqualified.
What Toppe said is that he would like to run ther me:akes sense even for personal/family reasons. But that if the by-election is called during the leadership race, then he cannot do both, and he will pass on Danforth.
[As noted, technically, the by-election has to be called during the leadership race. The actual consideration whether it is called late enough, and with the eday late enough, that nominations can happen after the leadership vote, without the party hobbling itself. If you want to get real technical and 'what if'... it is quite conceivable that the eday would be called for late enough that Brain Topp and/or Martin Singh could say that they are going to offer for Danforth whatever the outcome of the leadership vote. The point Topp was making is that he cannot be expected to run in two full out campaigns at the same time, and he will not.]
For Joe's puropses of the thoughts and conversations in the riding- it is relevant enough that Topp has ruled himself out as definitely offering there.
Yes, KenS is right.
I'm embarrassed to have omitted David Reville from the list. I loved the way he was so approachable and interested, the great work he did on behalf of people with Mental Health issues, and his strong sense of what makes a community and city work. I learned a lot from him when we worked together in Rae's office in 92/93. Renwick and Reville and Churley all came up through working as City Councillors. David exemplified the great style and approach that Marilyn has in spades.
With regard to women, we have a great history here in the East End of Toronto. Agnes MacPhail, Canada's first female MP, represented our area for a while. And I remember working for Kay MacPherson, former President of the National Action Committee on the Status of Women when she ran in the early 70's in the north end of what is now Toronto Danforth, and how she did so well standing up to my overbearing father. ;)
I think Joe makes a very valid point about the fact that the NDP caucus has sooo much new young blood right now that what we need more of are experienced people who could serve in a future cabinet. Marilyn Churley would be one of several people who could fit that bill since she had several portfolios in the Rae government and she certainly has name recognition in T-D to say the least. This is not an endorsement - but I agree with the points raised.
For what it's worth....
Marilyn Churley was born in 1948, so she's 63 now. Were she to become the NDP candidate in Toronto-Danforth and win the by-election, she would be younger than several (6-8?) of the female NDP M.P.s there now.
She served 15 years as a provincial politician, including holding cabinet porfolios. And represented that particular area.
The NDP needs more experienced politicians to help all of the newbies through to the next election, to act as a government in waiting.
The more female NDP M.P.s there are, the closer the Party comes to truly reflecting Canadian society.
Unless someone can come up with some factual reason why Churley shouldn't try for the nomination, I say 'Go For It!'
cf. Link in Sask
Marilyn Churley was born in 1948, so she's 63 now. Were she to become the NDP candidate in Toronto-Danforth and win the by-election, she would be younger than several (6-8?) of the female NDP M.P.s there now.
Four: Nycole Turmel, 69; Denise Savoie, 67; Francine Raynault, 65 or 66; and Lise St-Denis, 70 or 71. (By the way, both the last two ran in 2008.)
I agree Joe's logic for an experienced hand in Ottawa makes excellent sense.
One other point, I saw a Facebook post from a Toronto based friend tonight that he had been called by the Conservatives asking for support in the by-election. They may have little hope in the riding, but they appear to be getting ready.
We've been blessed with many NDP MPPs and MPs here - John Gilbert, Jim Renwick, Bob Rae, Lynn Macdonald, Gary Malkowski, Peter Tabuns, Jack Layton, Marilyn Churley.
I'm embarrassed to have omitted David Reville from the list.
Andrew Brewin, MP from 1962 to 1979; Reid Scott, MPP from 1948 to 1951, MP from 1962 to 1968; Neil Young, MP from 1980 to 1993. Ken Bryden, MPP from 1959 to 1967. Marion Bryden, MPP from 1975 to 1990. John Brown, MPP 1967 to 1971.
I agree Joe's logic for an experienced hand in Ottawa makes excellent sense.
One other point, I saw a Facebook post from a Toronto based friend tonight that he had been called by the Conservatives asking for support in the by-election. They may have little hope in the riding, but they appear to be getting ready.
I'm surprised that there has been no mention of the Liberals yet, I know Andrew Lang plans on running for the nomination again but it's odd that the party has yet to nominate someone. I heard George Smitherman's name mentioned but I don't know if he has discussed possibly running federally or if it's just rumors.
One other point, I saw a Facebook post from a Toronto based friend tonight that he had been called by the Conservatives asking for support in the by-election. They may have little hope in the riding, but they appear to be getting ready.
Hey I just got called about half an hour ago by someone asking me if I was going to "support Stephen Harper"...no mention of a local candidate at all. Could be the Harperites are trying to figure out whether it's worth their while to find a high profile candidate and then pour piles of campaign cash into the riding to tie the NDP up in knots. Thing is, the Harperites have tons of cash to play with even though their chances of winning are zilch in this part of town.
Is it possible Harper will call the by election soon then?
RE: I don't think the riding would appreciate an outsider running here.
I agree with that - if someone too far outside of the riding runs, they will be punished. It should be someone local and respected. They may accept someone from a bordering riding if they live near the border, but there is no such thing as a safe seat.
I would like El Farouk Khaki, but he may be too far outside the riding.
There are concrete benefits for the Conservatives working the riding for everything they can get, even if the chances of winning are faint.
But yes, it has everything to do with having buckets of cash.
By comparison, we put virtually nothing into a riding like mine, Kings-Hants, that we should win when the incumbent steps down, which easily could be the next election. We put zip in when there is little chance of winning NOW.
There are concrete benefits for the Conservatives working the riding for everything they can get, even if the chances of winning arevery faint.
But yes, it has everything to do with having buckets of cash.
By comparison, we put virtually nothing into a riding like mine, Kings-Hants, that we should win when the incumbent steps down, which easily could be the next election. We put zip in when there is little chance of winning NOW.
We've been blessed with many NDP MPPs and MPs here - John Gilbert, Jim Renwick, Bob Rae, Lynn Macdonald, Gary Malkowski, Peter Tabuns, Jack Layton, Marilyn Churley.
I'm embarrassed to have omitted David Reville from the list.
Andrew Brewin, MP from 1962 to 1979; Reid Scott, MPP from 1948 to 1951, MP from 1962 to 1968; Neil Young, MP from 1980 to 1993. Ken Bryden, MPP from 1959 to 1967. Marion Bryden, MPP from 1975 to 1990. John Brown, MPP 1967 to 1971.
Those are all people who represented what is now Beaches-East York NOT Toronto-Danforth (which used to be called Broadview and then Broadview-Greenwood)
I would like El Farouk Khaki, but he may be too far outside the riding.
And I understand he's heavily involved with EGALE right now.
He also ran twice in Toronto-Centre and both times had just about the worst NDP results of all time in that riding...
Actually, he did better there than Jack Layton did in 1993. Just saying. (Yeah, I know. 1993.)
There are concrete benefits for the Conservatives working the riding for everything they can get, even if the chances of winning arevery faint.
But yes, it has everything to do with having buckets of cash.
By comparison, we put virtually nothing into a riding like mine, Kings-Hants, that we should win when the incumbent steps down, which easily could be the next election. We put zip in when there is little chance of winning NOW.
The tories get to test out their newest micro-targeting gimmicks, might just win, and if they win or come close, all of a sudden the NDP and Libs will have to spend a lot more energy in T.O.
A couple weeks ago I met a young woman at Occupy Toronto who mentioned she is planning on seeking the nomination. She is a union organizer staying at Occupy Toronto. Don't recall her name, though she mentioned she ran previously in another riding. I am glad at least one woman will be seeking the nomination.
Also, doesn't Michael Shapcott live in Toronto-Danforth? I know he ran in Toronto-Centre a few years back. Has anyone approached him about running? What about Cathy Crowe as a potential candidate?
The tories get to test out their newest micro-targeting gimmicks, might just win, and if they win or come close, all of a sudden the NDP and Libs will have to spend a lot more energy in T.O.
The Tories can "micro-target" all they want - but the votes have to be there for them in the first place. Of the 308 ridings in Canada - Toronto-Danforth is close to dead last as a riding with any significant level of Tory support. They would win there the day they will EVERY seat in the country. The NDP would probably WELCOME a major Tory effort in 416 Toronto ridings since it would take votes from the Liberals and help the NDP win those ridings by an even bigger margin than before!
I'm not argiung T-D is Con-winnable; however, Tory support there may have been artificially lowballed by Layton lately--whether it's the Liberals as a repository for anti-Layton votes, or Layton as a repository for anti-Liberal votes. (And municipally, Case Ootes must have gotten his erstwhile support from *somewhere*.)
I don't think CPC support in T-D has been at all suppressed by the "Layton effect". THe Tories tend to do very badly in ALL the ridings in the old inner city City of Toronto. They don't just do badly in T-D, they also do very badly in Trinity-Spadina, Davenport, Beaches-East York etc...
Case Ootes mostly got his votes from people who vote Liberal provincially and federally. In a riding like T-D that is such an NDP stronghold - the local Liberals tend to be particularly rightwing and viscerally anti-NDP.
It's only "suppressed" in the sense of it maybe being a few points below where it'd otherwise be, i.e. it's Layton who made it closer to "worst" than "one of the worst". Otherwise, it'd be closer to a B-EY type of seat, where the Conservatives don't do *that* badly, considering--and could even have assumed second place had Maria Minna not run again.
Which'd be the Conservative version of "moral victory" in T-D, I suppose: still getting thumped, but nipping the Liberals for 2nd...
The Cons making the best show possible in T-D is not about moral victories or at least coming out ahead of the Liberals [which in itself they could not care less about].
It is about a long term national/regional campaigning strategy- and having the cash to invest in that everywhere.
By comparison, even during election campaigns we do not even put resources into our entire 'third tier' of seats where the chances of winning this election are remote, but we have a serious chance for anytime after the current election. Let alone the spending across the range of riding development potential that the Conservatives do between elections, while we do virtually none anywhere.
A good result for the Conservatives in Toronto Danforth is having a sign up.
For the record, the Liberals did 17.62%, the Cons 14.32% in T-D last time. I mean, that's still the basement; but, still...
Ootes was almost knocked off last time he ran, which is why he decided to retire (at the end of his term) about, oh, a minute after the recount. Better to go out as the champ.
The Cons making the best show possible in T-D is not about moral victories or at least coming out ahead of the Liberals [which in itself they could not care less about].
It is about a long term national/regional campaigning strategy- and having the cash to invest in that everywhere.
By comparison, even during election campaigns we do not even put resources into our entire 'third tier' of seats where the chances of winning this election are remote, but we have a serious chance for anytime after the current election. Let alone the spending across the range of riding development potential that the Conservatives do between elections, while we do virtually none anywhere.
Good point, but as you say the Conservatives have a lot more money to spread around for things like this. The opposition parties don't. I suppose one could ask if you put 0$ in to 3rd tier ridings, or put 1000$ into them, which would on average take away from 1st and 2nd tier ridings would that really help the party's strategic position? A fair question and something to try perhaps.
I believe the Tories spent the full amount allowed by law in the Winnipeg North by election last year. They still barely saved their deposit.
Winnipeg North is different. They pursued that as a long shot at winning. Oops. They were after the immediate gains.
The efforts in downtown core Toronto- the old City- are stepping stones in a long term and national/regional development program.
To VK's point- I'm not advocating re-allocating the slices on the same small pie. If we want to beat the Conservatives, we have to raise more money. Period.
Which means it has to be made more of a priority. That in turn is part and parcel, integrated with growing the party organizationaly.... which is never going to happen as long as we continue to tiptoe our way through the balkanized federated structure where the federal party simply does not have an organizational infrastructure. This gets discussed from a few angles in the thread on beating the Conservatives. ....albeit that particular organizational question, more in the predecesor thread.
What about the timing of the by-election?
If I understand the law, Harper must call the by-election within six months of it being declared vacant, or by late February or early March. Harper then can schedule the byelection a full year into the future from that point. In other words as late as March 2013.
The leadership vote is on March 24. If Topp were to win Broadview would be an obvioius entry into Parlaiment.
Harper is fullly capabale of making mischief. He could call the byelection for shortly before the leadership vote presenting Topp withthe dilemma of whether he should run at the same time as pursuing the leadership. He would also have to secure the nomination, which may not be a sure thing. I have heard from one B-G member that there may be some opposition to him. It would be extremely embarassing for his leadership hopes if he tried for and lost the nomination.
This would necessitate a sitting member in likley a less "safe" seat that B-G steeping aside for Topp if he became leader and his entry into Parliament delayed as much as another 18 months.
The last time Topp was mantioned in this thread it was clarified that he said that if the by-election happens during the leadership race, he cannot run two elections at once, so he does not offer. Which moots the rest of the speculation.
But I would certainly hope there was opposition in the riding to him running. And anyone else who might run. This is the NDP isnt it?.
I believe the Tories spent the full amount allowed by law in the Winnipeg North by election last year. They still barely saved their deposit.
And yet in the following *general* election, they jumped to an astronomical-for-that-seat quarter of the vote. Go figure.
The last time Topp was mentioned in this thread it was clarified that he said that if the by-election happens during the leadership race, he cannot run two elections at once, so he does not offer. Which moots the rest of the speculation.
I think that's a stance a politician could break without much repercussion
But I would certainly hope there was opposition in the riding to him running. And anyone else who might run. This is the NDP isnt it?.
Well put.
I believe the Tories spent the full amount allowed by law in the Winnipeg North by election last year. They still barely saved their deposit.
And yet in the following *general* election, they jumped to an astronomical-for-that-seat quarter of the vote. Go figure.
That had more to do with Rebecca Blaikie not being able to get as many votes for the NDP as the previous and popular MP, Judy Wasylicia-Lies, could. It looks like the Conservatives did much better, but if Blaikie had received as many votes as the NDP traditionally does in Winnipeg North, the Conservatives would not have had that large of a percentage.
Well said as usual.
I was amused by Stockholm's post in the other thread:
The federal NDP caucus is now 40% female and while that is not quite 50% its getting close enough that its hard to argue that the next NDP candidate in T-D asbolutely has to be a woman.
40% huh? Heck, that's only a third more men in caucus than women - that's practically equality, right? Certainly when women earned a third less than men, we considered that close enough to be equal...didn't we?
I would personally be happier if the NDP decided "not to stop until the job was done" when it comes to gender equity in caucus.
I believe the Tories spent the full amount allowed by law in the Winnipeg North by election last year. They still barely saved their deposit.
And yet in the following *general* election, they jumped to an astronomical-for-that-seat quarter of the vote. Go figure.
That had more to do with Rebecca Blaikie not being able to get as many votes for the NDP as the previous and popular MP, Judy Wasylicia-Lies, could. It looks like the Conservatives did much better, but if Blaikie had received as many votes as the NDP traditionally does in Winnipeg North, the Conservatives would not have had that large of a percentage.
Governing parties don't tend to do as well in by elections. In 2008 the Conservatives won 22% of the vote. Ignoring the by election, from 2008 to 2011 the Conservative vote increased by exactly 4 percentage points. The Liberals have gone from 9% to 36%, so the NDP has lost a lot of support to both the Liberals and Conservatives. This was obviously more of a Judy seat then an NDP seat.
It is obviously nothing.
This is a riding where voter turnout means everything. Look over changes in the raw votes.
It was not a Judy seat. It should be an NDP seat. The Liberal Lamoreaux ran a superb campaign, getting out his vote. Beat us at our own game.
It is obviously nothing.
This is a riding where voter turnout means everything. Look over changes in the raw votes.
It was not a Judy seat. It should be an NDP seat. The Liberal Lamoreaux ran a superb campaign, getting out his vote. Beat us at our own game.
It has been NDP/CCF/Labour for most of its history. But we still have to win the seat each election.
Winnipeg North is a perfect example of why people shouldn't just assume Toronto Danforth is safe.
Except, who'd be the Kevin Lamoureux figure? (Actually, there was one once ruling the roost here--Dennis Mills.)
Except, who'd be the Kevin Lamoureux figure? (Actually, there was one once ruling the roost here--Dennis Mills.)
Who knows who it might. The Liberals might have issues but this is Toronto, so I'm sure there's no shortage of Liberals in the area. I've heard George Smitherman's name mentioned, he may have represented the neighbouring riding provincially but he's still very well known and took over 50% of the vote in the area in the Mayoral election. Someone may also run with plans of running for the leadership of the party.
Warren Kinsella? (AFAIK he still lives next door)
Anybody remember the Kinsella column right after the election.
Remember that Kinsella made no bones about it before the election: the ship is ust about sunk, we deserve this, etc.
He didnt crow afterwards [didnt need to either]. Didnt launch straight away into "NOW, can we finally seriously discuss merger?"
He said essentially, now is the time to step forward, put my money where my mouth is, and run for office myself.
Guarantee you that Warren would make an interesting candidate.
Anybody remember the Kinsella column right after the election.
Remember that Kinsella made no bones about it before the election: the ship is ust about sunk, we deserve this, etc.
He didnt crow afterwards [didnt need to either]. Didnt launch straight away into "NOW, can we finally seriously discuss merger?"
He said essentially, now is the time to step forward, put my money where my mouth is, and run for office myself.
Guarantee you that Warren would make an interesting candidate.
I thought that was a pitch to become the Liberal candidate in Beaches-East York, where he lives.
I thought that was a pitch to become the Liberal candidate in Beaches-East York, where he lives.
This seat is now vacant though.
I think who ever is running the show at Liberal HQ would have to think long and hard about having someone as toxic as Warren Kinsella running for them. That guy seems to have sued half te population of Toronto and more often than not the people he sues are fellow Liberals who might have crossed him at some point. Keep away....keep far, far away.
Definitely. Even an allie like Bov Rae would not likely like Warren in a public position.
But if Warren wanted to run, with the white paper having criticisised interference in nominations, and needing the kerfuffle of denying exactly what they do not need.... I think they would let him run.
But this is sheer and pointless speculation.
Its fun to speculate about a Topp-Kinsella battle in a byelection - two backroom boys who have run war rooms attacking each other...it will never happen but its fun to speculate.
Closing for length.