Toronto-Danforth by-election 2

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Wilf Day

robbie_dee wrote:

I think a good option for Topp could be Hull-Aylmer. Nycole Turmel has capped off a stellar career with a stint as Opposition leader, but any shadow cabinet position after her current one will be a step down. She'll be 72 by the time of the next election, so even if the NDP became the government she may be too old for a cabinet position. I could see her stepping aside sooner, for the good of the party, if the new leader needs a seat.

Very logical, but raises a question for Pierre Ducasse and his fans. He was going to run again in Hull-Aylmer until he stepped aside for Nycole Turmel. Assuming she does not run again in 2015, Pierre would be a logical candidate. If Topp took Hull-Aylmer in a by-election, would he move elsewhere in 2015? Not necessarily.

KenS

Pierre did not stand aside for Nycole. He has very young kiids now, and just stood down period. But that does not change your point, and my educated guess is that Pierre will be ready to come back to it whenever there is an opening.

When he stood down it had been nearly 10 years of hard uphill slogging. It is a totaly transformed picture now. 

toaster

I hope it's Marilyn Churley.

Spadina25

I hope the executive does a better job than Marilyn Churley. Marilyn is pretty much retired into her sweet gig as justice of the peace. If the NDP has to reach into its distant past for a candidate its in bad shape. Sorry - she was a powerful figure in her day but that day has passed. New blood please!

Spadina25

I hope the executive does a better job than Marilyn Churley. Marilyn is pretty much retired into her sweet gig as justice of the peace. If the NDP has to reach into its distant past for a candidate its in bad shape. Sorry - she was a powerful figure in her day but that day has passed. New blood please!

janfromthebruce

Well it's the riding association who does a candidate search and not the NDP executive!

Joe Murray

Given our caucus composition and strategic position, the last thing we need is to add 'new blood'.

We don't need another person who has never held a seat to be figuring out the gig and climbing the learning curve. The many newbies in our caucus would benefit from having someone like Marilyn Churley sharing her 15 years of experience. She's great as a local member, really listening and working with the community and local groups. And she was great as a opposition member for 10 years and as a cabinet minister - she knew how to push issues and make things happen from both sides of the house.

Next election, we need to present ourselves as a government in waiting. We need to show we have people who understand how government work. We don't need a 'ministeriable' person, but a proven, effective minister.

I've lived in Toronto Danforth most of the time since my family moved here when I was kid in the sixties. I've chatted with friends and neighbours over the past weeks and months and there's lots of warmth and affection and support for Marilyn. It's a pretty political, and by that I mean, NDP political riding. People noticed Topp's statement about not running here. It makes sense to us that he should want to concentrate on his leadership bid. It's not like we've got a tiny caucus, public support in the single digits, and a leader desparate to find somewhere they can win in order to get into the House. Time enough.

We've been blessed with many NDP MPPs and MPs here - John Gilbert, Jim Renwick, Bob Rae, Lynn Macdonald, Gary Malkowski, Peter Tabuns, Jack Layton, Marilyn Churley.  Marilyn is up there with the best of them, and has always done well here in her home riding where she has such deep roots. I'd love it if she ran, for the sake of the riding, our caucus, and all Canadians who will benefit from electing a New Democrat government in 2015.

Spadina25

I still think there is a limit to how many time you dippers can go back to the same well and replace yourselves with older less impressive versions of yourself. (ie marilyn).

Where ahs it been said that Topp isn't running in Danforth? is that confirmed?

 

Joe Murray

Yes, KenS is right.

I'm embarrassed to have omitted David Reville from the list. I loved the way he was so approachable and interested, the great work he did on behalf of people with Mental Health issues, and his strong sense of what makes a community and city work. I learned a lot from him when we worked together in Rae's office in 92/93. Renwick and Reville and Churley all came up through working as City Councillors. David exemplified the great style and approach that Marilyn has in spades.

With regard to women, we have a great history here in the East End of Toronto. Agnes MacPhail, Canada's first female MP, represented our area for a while. And I remember working for Kay MacPherson, former President of the National Action Committee on the Status of Women when she ran in the early 70's in the north end of what is now Toronto Danforth, and how she did so well standing up to my overbearing father. ;)

KenS

I'm not sure that Joe meant to say that unqualified.

What Toppe said is that he would like to run ther me:akes sense even for personal/family reasons. But that if the by-election is called during the leadership race, then he cannot do both, and he will pass on Danforth.

[As noted, technically, the by-election has to be called during the leadership race. The actual consideration whether it is called late enough, and with the eday late enough, that nominations can happen after the leadership vote, without the party hobbling itself. If you want to get real technical and 'what if'... it is quite conceivable that the eday would be called for late enough that Brain Topp and/or Martin Singh could say that they are going to offer for Danforth whatever the outcome of the leadership vote. The point Topp was making is that he cannot be expected to run in two full out campaigns at the same time, and he will not.]

For Joe's puropses of the thoughts and conversations in the riding- it is relevant enough that Topp has ruled himself out as definitely offering there.

Stockholm

I think Joe makes a very valid point about the fact that the NDP caucus has sooo much new young blood right now that what we need more of are experienced people who could serve in a future cabinet. Marilyn Churley would be one of several people who could fit that bill since she had several portfolios in the Rae government and she certainly has name recognition in T-D to say the least. This is not an endorsement - but I agree with the points raised.

David Young

For what it's worth....

Marilyn Churley was born in 1948, so she's 63 now.  Were she to become the NDP candidate in Toronto-Danforth and win the by-election, she would be younger than several (6-8?) of the female NDP M.P.s there now.

She served 15 years as a provincial politician, including holding cabinet porfolios.  And represented that particular area.

The NDP needs more experienced politicians to help all of the newbies through to the next election, to act as a government in waiting.

The more female NDP M.P.s there are, the closer the Party comes to truly reflecting Canadian society.

Unless someone can come up with some factual reason why Churley shouldn't try for the nomination, I say 'Go For It!'

 

adma

Spadina25 wrote:
If the NDP has to reach into its distant past for a candidate its in bad shape.

cf. Link in Sask

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

I agree Joe's logic for an experienced hand in Ottawa makes excellent sense.

One other point, I saw a Facebook post from a Toronto based friend tonight that he had been called by the Conservatives asking for support in the by-election.  They may have little hope in the riding, but they appear to be getting ready.

Newfoundlander_...

Lou Arab wrote:

I agree Joe's logic for an experienced hand in Ottawa makes excellent sense.

One other point, I saw a Facebook post from a Toronto based friend tonight that he had been called by the Conservatives asking for support in the by-election.  They may have little hope in the riding, but they appear to be getting ready.

I'm surprised that there has been no mention of the Liberals yet, I know Andrew Lang plans on running for the nomination again but it's odd that the party has yet to nominate someone. I heard George Smitherman's name mentioned but I don't know if he has discussed possibly running federally or if it's just rumors. 

Wilf Day

Joe Murray wrote:

We've been blessed with many NDP MPPs and MPs here - John Gilbert, Jim Renwick, Bob Rae, Lynn Macdonald, Gary Malkowski, Peter Tabuns, Jack Layton, Marilyn Churley.


Joe Murray wrote:

I'm embarrassed to have omitted David Reville from the list.

Andrew Brewin, MP from 1962 to 1979; Reid Scott, MPP from 1948 to 1951, MP from 1962 to 1968; Neil Young, MP from 1980 to 1993. Ken Bryden, MPP from 1959 to 1967. Marion Bryden, MPP from 1975 to 1990. John Brown, MPP 1967 to 1971.

radiorahim radiorahim's picture

Lou Arab wrote:

 

One other point, I saw a Facebook post from a Toronto based friend tonight that he had been called by the Conservatives asking for support in the by-election.  They may have little hope in the riding, but they appear to be getting ready.

Hey I just got called about half an hour ago by someone asking me if I was going to "support Stephen Harper"...no mention of a local candidate at all.    Could be the Harperites are trying to figure out whether it's worth their while to find a high profile candidate and then pour piles of campaign cash into the riding to tie the NDP up in knots.   Thing is, the Harperites have tons of cash to play with even though their chances of winning are zilch in this part of town.

 

Newfoundlander_...

Is it possible Harper will call the by election soon then?

vaudree

RE: I don't think the riding would appreciate an outsider running here.

I agree with that - if someone too far outside of the riding runs, they will be punished. It should be someone local and respected. They may accept someone from a bordering riding if they live near the border, but there is no such thing as a safe seat.

I would like El Farouk Khaki, but he may be too far outside the riding.

KenS

There are concrete benefits for the Conservatives working the riding for everything they can get, even if the chances of winning are faint.

But yes, it has everything to do with having buckets of cash.

By comparison, we put virtually nothing into a riding like mine, Kings-Hants, that we should win when the incumbent steps down, which easily could be the next election. We put zip in when there is little chance of winning NOW.

KenS

There are concrete benefits for the Conservatives working the riding for everything they can get, even if the chances of winning arevery  faint.

But yes, it has everything to do with having buckets of cash.

By comparison, we put virtually nothing into a riding like mine, Kings-Hants, that we should win when the incumbent steps down, which easily could be the next election. We put zip in when there is little chance of winning NOW.

Stockholm

Wilf Day wrote:
Joe Murray wrote:

We've been blessed with many NDP MPPs and MPs here - John Gilbert, Jim Renwick, Bob Rae, Lynn Macdonald, Gary Malkowski, Peter Tabuns, Jack Layton, Marilyn Churley.

Joe Murray wrote:

I'm embarrassed to have omitted David Reville from the list.

Andrew Brewin, MP from 1962 to 1979; Reid Scott, MPP from 1948 to 1951, MP from 1962 to 1968; Neil Young, MP from 1980 to 1993. Ken Bryden, MPP from 1959 to 1967. Marion Bryden, MPP from 1975 to 1990. John Brown, MPP 1967 to 1971.

Those are all people who represented what is now Beaches-East York NOT Toronto-Danforth (which used to be called Broadview and then Broadview-Greenwood)

Wilf Day

David Young wrote:

Marilyn Churley was born in 1948, so she's 63 now.  Were she to become the NDP candidate in Toronto-Danforth and win the by-election, she would be younger than several (6-8?) of the female NDP M.P.s there now.

Four: Nycole Turmel, 69; Denise Savoie, 67; Francine Raynault, 65 or 66; and Lise St-Denis, 70 or 71. (By the way, both the last two ran in 2008.)

edmundoconnor

vaudree wrote:

I would like El Farouk Khaki, but he may be too far outside the riding.

And I understand he's heavily involved with EGALE right now.

Stockholm

He also ran twice in Toronto-Centre and both times had just about the worst NDP results of all time in that riding...

adma

Actually, he did better there than Jack Layton did in 1993.  Just saying.  (Yeah, I know.  1993.)

howeird beale

KenS wrote:

There are concrete benefits for the Conservatives working the riding for everything they can get, even if the chances of winning arevery  faint.

But yes, it has everything to do with having buckets of cash.

By comparison, we put virtually nothing into a riding like mine, Kings-Hants, that we should win when the incumbent steps down, which easily could be the next election. We put zip in when there is little chance of winning NOW.

 

The tories get to test out their newest micro-targeting gimmicks, might just win, and if they win or come close, all of a sudden the NDP and Libs will have to spend a lot more energy in T.O.

Orangutan

A couple weeks ago I met a young woman at Occupy Toronto who mentioned she is planning on seeking the nomination.  She is a union organizer staying at Occupy Toronto.  Don't recall her name, though she mentioned she ran previously in another riding.  I am glad at least one woman will be seeking the nomination.

Also, doesn't Michael Shapcott live in Toronto-Danforth?  I know he ran in Toronto-Centre a few years back.  Has anyone approached him about running?  What about Cathy Crowe as a potential candidate?

Stockholm

howeird beale wrote:

The tories get to test out their newest micro-targeting gimmicks, might just win, and if they win or come close, all of a sudden the NDP and Libs will have to spend a lot more energy in T.O.

The Tories can "micro-target" all they want - but the votes have to be there for them in the first place. Of the 308 ridings in Canada - Toronto-Danforth is close to dead last as a riding with any significant level of Tory support. They would win there the day they will EVERY seat in the country. The NDP would probably WELCOME a major Tory effort in 416 Toronto ridings since it would take votes from the Liberals and help the NDP win those ridings by an even bigger margin than before!

adma

Stockholm wrote:
Of the 308 ridings in Canada - Toronto-Danforth is close to dead last as a riding with any significant level of Tory support.

I'm not argiung T-D is Con-winnable; however, Tory support there may have been artificially lowballed by Layton lately--whether it's the Liberals as a repository for anti-Layton votes, or Layton as a repository for anti-Liberal votes.  (And municipally, Case Ootes must have gotten his erstwhile support from *somewhere*.)

Stockholm

I don't think CPC support in T-D has been at all suppressed by the "Layton effect". THe Tories tend to do very badly in ALL the ridings in the old inner city City of Toronto. They don't just do badly in T-D, they also do very badly in Trinity-Spadina, Davenport, Beaches-East York etc...

Case Ootes mostly got his votes from people who vote Liberal provincially and federally. In a riding like T-D that is such an NDP stronghold - the local Liberals tend to be particularly rightwing and viscerally anti-NDP.

adma

It's only "suppressed" in the sense of it maybe being a few points below where it'd otherwise be, i.e. it's Layton who made it closer to "worst" than "one of the worst".  Otherwise, it'd be closer to a B-EY type of seat, where the Conservatives don't do *that* badly, considering--and could even have assumed second place had Maria Minna not run again.

Which'd be the Conservative version of "moral victory" in T-D, I suppose: still getting thumped, but nipping the Liberals for 2nd...

KenS

The Cons making the best show possible in T-D is not about moral victories or at least coming out ahead of the Liberals [which in itself they could not care less about].

It is about a long term national/regional campaigning strategy- and having the cash to invest in that everywhere.

By comparison, even during election campaigns we do not even put resources into our entire 'third tier' of seats where the chances of winning this election are remote, but we have a serious chance for anytime after the current election.  Let alone the spending across the range of riding development potential that the Conservatives do between elections, while we do virtually none anywhere.

Olly

A good result for the Conservatives in Toronto Danforth is having a sign up.

adma

For the record, the Liberals did 17.62%, the Cons 14.32% in T-D last time.  I mean, that's still the basement; but, still...

howeird beale

Ootes was almost knocked off last time he ran, which is why he decided to retire (at the end of his term) about, oh, a minute after the recount. Better to go out as the champ.

Vansterdam Kid

KenS wrote:

The Cons making the best show possible in T-D is not about moral victories or at least coming out ahead of the Liberals [which in itself they could not care less about].

It is about a long term national/regional campaigning strategy- and having the cash to invest in that everywhere.

By comparison, even during election campaigns we do not even put resources into our entire 'third tier' of seats where the chances of winning this election are remote, but we have a serious chance for anytime after the current election.  Let alone the spending across the range of riding development potential that the Conservatives do between elections, while we do virtually none anywhere.

Good point, but as you say the Conservatives have a lot more money to spread around for things like this. The opposition parties don't. I suppose one could ask if you put 0$ in to 3rd tier ridings, or put 1000$ into them, which would on average take away from 1st and 2nd tier ridings would that really help the party's strategic position? A fair question and something to try perhaps.

Stockholm

I believe the Tories spent the full amount allowed by law in the Winnipeg North by election last year. They still barely saved their deposit.

KenS

Winnipeg North is different. They pursued that as a long shot at winning. Oops. They were after the immediate gains.

The efforts in downtown core Toronto- the old City- are stepping stones in a long term and national/regional development program.

To VK's point- I'm not advocating re-allocating the slices on the same small pie. If we want to beat the Conservatives, we have to raise more money. Period.

Which means it has to be made more of a priority. That in turn is part and parcel, integrated with growing the party organizationaly.... which is never going to happen as long as we continue to tiptoe our way through the balkanized federated structure where the federal party simply does not have an organizational infrastructure. This gets discussed from a few angles in the thread on beating the Conservatives. ....albeit that particular organizational question, more in the predecesor thread.

nicky

What about the timing of the by-election?

If I understand the law, Harper must call the by-election within six months of it being declared vacant, or by late February or early March. Harper then can schedule the byelection a full year into the future from that point. In other words as late as March 2013.

The leadership vote is on March 24. If Topp were to win Broadview would be an obvioius entry into Parlaiment. 

Harper is fullly capabale of making mischief. He could call the byelection for shortly before the leadership vote presenting Topp withthe dilemma of whether he should run at the same time as pursuing the leadership. He would also have to secure the nomination, which may not be a sure thing. I have heard from one B-G  member that there may be some opposition to him. It would be extremely embarassing for his leadership hopes if he tried for and lost the nomination.

This would necessitate a sitting member in likley a less "safe" seat that B-G steeping aside for Topp if he became leader and his entry into Parliament delayed as much as another 18 months. 

KenS

The last time Topp was mantioned in this thread it was clarified that he said that if the by-election happens during the leadership race, he cannot run two elections at once, so he does not offer. Which moots the rest of the speculation.

But I would certainly hope there was opposition in the riding to him running. And anyone else who might run. This is the NDP isnt it?.

adma

Stockholm wrote:

I believe the Tories spent the full amount allowed by law in the Winnipeg North by election last year. They still barely saved their deposit.

 

And yet in the following *general* election, they jumped to an astronomical-for-that-seat quarter of the vote.  Go figure.

howeird beale

KenS wrote:

The last time Topp was mentioned in this thread it was clarified that he said that if the by-election happens during the leadership race, he cannot run two elections at once, so he does not offer. Which moots the rest of the speculation.

I think that's a stance a politician could break without much repercussionSmile

KenS wrote:

But I would certainly hope there was opposition in the riding to him running. And anyone else who might run. This is the NDP isnt it?.

Well put.

Aristotleded24

adma wrote:
Stockholm wrote:

I believe the Tories spent the full amount allowed by law in the Winnipeg North by election last year. They still barely saved their deposit.

 

And yet in the following *general* election, they jumped to an astronomical-for-that-seat quarter of the vote.  Go figure.

That had more to do with Rebecca Blaikie not being able to get as many votes for the NDP as the previous and popular MP, Judy Wasylicia-Lies, could. It looks like the Conservatives did much better, but if Blaikie had received as many votes as the NDP traditionally does in Winnipeg North, the Conservatives would not have had that large of a percentage.

NorthReport

Well said as usual.

Michelle wrote:

I was amused by Stockholm's post in the other thread:

Quote:

The federal NDP caucus is now 40% female and while that is not quite 50% its getting close enough that its hard to argue that the next NDP candidate in T-D asbolutely has to be a woman.

40% huh?  Heck, that's only a third more men in caucus than women - that's practically equality, right?  Certainly when women earned a third less than men, we considered that close enough to be equal...didn't we?

I would personally be happier if the NDP decided "not to stop until the job was done" when it comes to gender equity in caucus.

Newfoundlander_...

Aristotleded24 wrote:

adma wrote:
Stockholm wrote:

I believe the Tories spent the full amount allowed by law in the Winnipeg North by election last year. They still barely saved their deposit.

 

And yet in the following *general* election, they jumped to an astronomical-for-that-seat quarter of the vote.  Go figure.

That had more to do with Rebecca Blaikie not being able to get as many votes for the NDP as the previous and popular MP, Judy Wasylicia-Lies, could. It looks like the Conservatives did much better, but if Blaikie had received as many votes as the NDP traditionally does in Winnipeg North, the Conservatives would not have had that large of a percentage.

Governing parties don't tend to do as well in by elections. In 2008 the Conservatives won 22% of the vote. Ignoring the by election, from 2008 to 2011 the Conservative vote increased by exactly 4 percentage points. The Liberals have gone from 9% to 36%, so the NDP has lost a lot of support to both the Liberals and Conservatives. This was obviously more of a Judy seat then an NDP seat. 

KenS

It is obviously nothing.

This is a riding where voter turnout means everything. Look over changes in the raw votes.

It was not a Judy seat. It should be an NDP seat. The Liberal Lamoreaux ran a superb campaign, getting out his vote. Beat us at our own game.

Policywonk

KenS wrote:

It is obviously nothing.

This is a riding where voter turnout means everything. Look over changes in the raw votes.

It was not a Judy seat. It should be an NDP seat. The Liberal Lamoreaux ran a superb campaign, getting out his vote. Beat us at our own game.

It has been NDP/CCF/Labour for most of its history. But we still have to win the seat each election.

Newfoundlander_...

Winnipeg North is a perfect example of why people shouldn't just assume Toronto Danforth is safe. 

adma

Except, who'd be the Kevin Lamoureux figure?  (Actually, there was one once ruling the roost here--Dennis Mills.)

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