Whitby-Oshawa By-election

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ctrl190
Whitby-Oshawa By-election

Christine Elliot has stepped down as MPP immediately. 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/28/tory-christine-elliott-qui...

The NDP hit 23% in the riding in 2014, their highest percentage since the riding was created in 2007. Jennifer French won the neighbouring Oshawa riding last election. What are the NDP's chances in an upcoming by-election?

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David Young

I'm wondering if the Conservatives are so worried about losing Oshawa in the election that Harper's cooking up a plan for present M.P. Colin Carrie to step aside and retire, so Elliot can step in as Conservative candidate.

 

robbie_dee

I wouldn't rule it out but it sure would look desparate. Carrie is 7 years younger than Elliott and we're almost a month into the election (although admittedly this election is much longer than usual - but that too was solely the Conservatives' decision). Other than an unforeseen health issue what possible explanation could be proffered for the switcheroo? I think Elliott's resignation is also a dig at Pat Brown less than a week before his critical byelection. 

GTY

If Elliott were to jump into the Oshawa race she could be painted as a bitter woman who was no longer interested in sticking around the provincial scene, but too spiteful to give up her seat to Patrick Brown, forcing another Conservative to give up their seat.

oldgoat

As an Oshawa person I really don't think such a move is likely.  Even though the two town's are seperated by one rather ugly street, they are two rather different worlds, and there's not a lot of love between the two.  I think it would backfire.  Carrie has a lot of signs up (albeit on public property so far) and I think it would just cause both confusion and bad feelings. I'm not even sure of the legality of it

David Young

oldgoat wrote:

As an Oshawa person I really don't think such a move is likely.  Even though the two town's are seperated by one rather ugly street, they are two rather different worlds, and there's not a lot of love between the two.  I think it would backfire.  Carrie has a lot of signs up (albeit on public property so far) and I think it would just cause both confusion and bad feelings. I'm not even sure of the legality of it

Legality?

Do you really think a term like that means anything to the Harperites?

 

oldgoat

good point

ctrl190

Liberals picked their candidate. Any news on the NDP nomination?

http://www.cp24.com/news/grits-pick-whitby-councillor-roy-to-run-in-prov...

Stockholm

ctrl190 wrote:

Liberals picked their candidate. Any news on the NDP nomination?

http://www.cp24.com/news/grits-pick-whitby-councillor-roy-to-run-in-prov...

I heard they are nominating next week and that a couple of people are contesting the nomination  

Stockholm

Hey Lundquist sounds like a Swedish name. Stockholm likes that!

ctrl190

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-whitby-oshawa-poll-1.3403579

Mainstreet Poll:

PC - 49%

LIB - 40%

NDP - 8%

ctrl190

By-election called for February 11. Labour lawyer Niki Lundquist is running for the NDP.

http://www.lundquistndp.ca/

 

Debater

The Federal Liberals won Whitby in October, so perhaps that is why these numbers are showing a PC-Liberal race with the NDP in 3rd.

adma

Actually, that poll almost exactly echoes the fed byelection to replace Flaherty (Con 49.31, Lib 40.65, NDP 8.08).  And I'm not surprised at all that "Mulcair disarray" has migrated down to provincial numbers...

Debater

Yes, although Whitby was one of the unexpected Liberal pickups in the Federal Election in October.

I imagine that former Whitby Mayor Pat Perkins was pretty upset with Harper & the CPC.  She served less than a year in the House of Commons between the November 2014 by-election and her loss in October 2015:

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/federal-ridings-toronto-gta...

adma

Debater wrote:

Yes, although Whitby was one of the unexpected Liberal pickups in the Federal Election in October.

"Unexpected" within the whole picture yet not implausible; I remember rolling my eyes at all those who viewed Perkins' byelection victory in "woe is us, the Cons can't be beat here" terms (usually not factoring in how Perkins might have had a "mayoral bump" going for her)

Debater

True.

In retrospect it makes sense that the Liberals would be in contention in Whitby in a year in which they won a Majority nationally (and 80 seats in Ontario).

The predecessor riding did elect Judi Longfield for several terms, and Celina Caesar-Chavannes had established a strong 2nd-place base of support in the 2014 by-election and that may have also helped put her over the top in 2015.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

It seems that "Znoneofthe Above" will be on the ballot.

Geoff

I got a call a couple of nights ago from the ONDP, looking for a donation to support "a very important election for New Democrats". I feel so badly for the folks who have to phone party members, asking them to flush their money down the toilet for a lost cause. It can't be easy for these poor souls.

Debater

If the above poll is accurate, it sounds like the ONDP is running 3rd in this byelection and isn't really in the game.

It looks like a PC vs OLP race, with the PC's probably winning.

But if the OLP finishes a respectable 2nd, Wynne can claim some sort of victory, I suppose.

Horwath, I'm not so sure.

ctrl190

PCs win handedly. Silver lining (?) is that the NDP didn't hit single digits which some polls were suggesting. We move on. 

Geoff

ctrl190 wrote:

PCs win handedly. Silver lining (?) is that the NDP didn't hit single digits which some polls were suggesting. We move on. 

For sure, we'll win Whitby next time! Wink

nicky

The news stories all seem to avoid mentioning that Justin Trudeau campaigned in the riding for the Liberal candidate a couple days before the vote.