babble is rabble.ca's discussion board but it's much more than that: it's an online community for folks who just won't shut up. It's a place to tell each other — and the world — what's up with our work and campaigns.
Support rabble | Advertise with us | Contact our staff | About rabble | Log-in or Register for a new account | Corrections | Privacy policy | Newsfeeds | Mailing lists
rabble: Features | Columnists | In Cahoots | Blogs | Books | Photos | What's Up | Polls
babble: Forum Topics | Active Topics
The rpn: About the RPN | Become a podcaster
rabbleTV: Program Guide | Features | Indie Inside | Best of the net
Copyright © 2001-2013 the authors
Syndicate
In Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, small business owner Trevor Westerhoff has been nominated for the NDP
He did. "In October, Ontario is going to see the Orange Crush again," Singh said after being nominated last week to run in the same Ontario riding that he almost won in the May 2 federal vote.
If we win St. Catharine's we should win government. On May 2 we got only 23.8% there, compared with 25.6% across Ontario.
Any news from any of the Etobicoke ridings?
I'm not so sure about that - you can get all kinds of anomalies depending on whether a seat is heavily targetted and depending on whether or not a seat has a popular incumbent. One could argue that if the Liberals HOLD St. Catherine's they shoudl win re-election - but they have won it in the past while being crushed across the province on the strength of Bradley's personal popularity. (e.g. in 1990 when the ONDP won 74 seats in Ontario - they failed to beat Bradley). In the federal election, my impression is that the NDP did not put any priority on St. catherine's. The Tory incumbent seemed impregnable and all available resources were focused on holding on to Welland. But in reality when you look at the demographics of St. Catherine's - it is a place that should be winnable for the NDP IF it is an open seat and IF they get a high profile candidate.
I thought Layton did earlier pinpoint St. Kitts as one of his Ontario "HST targets"--but in previous elections, yes, the NDP rather underprioritized, or else the "Hargrove Liberal" impetus hogged the spotlight. (And even so, they continued to bob around the 20% mark.)
Don't make too much of 23.8 vs 25.6 provincially; a lot of that balance-shifting "upper vote" was hogged by incumbent or supertarget seats...
Breaking news - grade Z Liberal incumbent MPP for Cuba - I mean Davenport - Tony Ruprecht is retiring You have to think that after Andrew Cash’s 10,000 vote win in May, Ruprecht saw the writing on the wall. I’m not sure if this is good news or just neutral news. He is such a weak MPP and so out of step with the way Davenport has evolved that almost anyone else the Liberals run would probably be (slightly) more formidable (or less repulsive). Also, I would have enjoyed seeing Ruprecht lose rather than retire undefeated!
"Ladies and gentlemen, please give a warm welcome for your new MPP, Jonah Schein"
I'm still dumbfounded as to how Glen Murray managed to squeeze past the saintly Cathy Crowe in the recent by-election. If I remember correctly, he received basically the entire vote north of Gerrard, which would account for the Village and Rosedale.
Cathy is an amazing person and just the sort we need to be handling health care and social housing.
Here are the Toronto Centre by-election results by neighbourhood (and there's a link to a map too!):
http://rabble.ca/comment/1150361
Thanks for that. Looks like the NDP numbers rose over 2007-2010 and maybe, just maybe, Cathy Crowe can come away the victor this fall.
Might Silva refuse to take the hint, and ru(i)n as a provincial Liberal?
Silva is likely unemployed right now - so I guess he might try to run provincially. Then again after the way he was shellacked - its hard to imagine him having any chance. It would also be great if one of the two deadbeat Ford supporting city councillors from Davenport decided to run provincially for the Liberals - that way someone progressive could win a municipal byelection and replace worthless deadwood like Cesar Palacio or Ana Bailao - but they probably both know that they'd lose as well. Quite frankly, I think the Ontario Liberals will have a very hard time finding a candidate who is anything more than a name on the ballot.
The PC vote completely imploded, thanks to Pamela Taylor being arm-twisted into running, who then proceeded to run a decidedly half-hearted campaign (witness her outing of John Baird to Andy Barrie on CBC). She was also decidedly independently-spirited, which can't have endeared her to PC HQ, who simply wanted someone to parrot the party line. The PC vote on election night was the bedrock Tory vote, and centre-right voters who weren't committed PCers waltzed into the welcoming arms of Glen Murray. This is the one riding where having George Smitherman on your side is an actual advantage.
The mathematics of the riding meant that in 2010 the NDP needed the PCs to bite into the right-wing Liberal vote in order to pull down Murray's numbers into the mid-30s (or lower). That didn't happen.
With a brand-spanking-new PC candidate, Martin Abell, who seems to all appearances an extremely good outlet for His Master's Voice, the PC vote can only go up. This is oddly good news for the NDP, since the PCs will never have a prayer south of Bloor.
http://www.niagarathisweek.com/news/article/1040188--forster-steps-up-to-replace-kormos
Great news!
Forster's was teh first name that popped into my head; shes a woman, with years of political experience... Anyone from the Niagara region on here want to comment on how well liked/well known? she is/her chances of winning?
If the NDP was able to hold on to Welland Federally i think this is a hold provincial especially with a weakened liberal party but i wouldn't call this a cake walk just yet. Just like Parkdale, we will have to run good strong local campaigns and hope that Andrea can run a good province-wide campaign.
In Welland I don't think the Liberals will be a factor at all. If there is any threat to the NDP it will come from the PCs - look at how close Welland was federally between the NDP and the CPC with the Liberals and very distant third.
...and that very distant third with the former MP, yet. Remember, too, from a PC POV that this is also Hudak country--quite literally, as Port Colborne (and Wainfleet) was Hudak-held from 1995 to the last redistribution...
(though yes, Port Colborne was Hudak's weakest part. And Wainfleet's too much of an outlier rump.)
Another Liberal bites the dust. David Caplan is quitting in Don Valley East. Believe it or not this could actually be an NDP target. In the federal election, the NDP came out of no where to take 26% of the vote there and demographically it is very much an extension of Scarborough. The NDP candidate there seems very impressive:
"Pediatrician named NDP candidate in Don Valley EastDr. Robert Hilliard is expected to be named the NDP candidate in the provincial riding of Don Valley East this week. Hilliard is a pediatrician at the Hospital for Sick Children and is also a professor of pediatrics at the University of Toronto."
There is some specualtion about who would run for the Liberals - and Shelley Carroll would be an obvious possibility. But I think she is better off being the de facto leader of the opposition on Toronto city council and running for mayor in 2015 - as opposed to running provincial and either losing and being stuck with nothing or winning and being stuck in opposition for the foreseeable future.
Yasmin Ratansi?
She wouldn't have to resign from council to run provincially. Agreed that she'd probably rather be mayor than an MPP, though.
If you have 25% or more of the vote you are defnitely a contender and you should have the slight delusion that you are going to win.
It seems now to be a race for the NDP nomination in Welland, with retired police officer Mick Riddle now in the running there. in addition to the previously announced Welland Regional Councillor and nurse Cindy Forster .
And considering the federal polling map
methinks the old "ethnoboomburbs = NDP no-man's land" formula has been shattered for keeps. (NB: the recent megagrowth has been in the mainly-orange zone at the top--a decade ago or more, there was scarcely any subdivision there)
Some nominations from Eastern Ontario, really not our strongest suit but maybe this time... in May the NDP recieved 17.5, just shy of the Liberal 17.9... ok the torries won 62... but i'm looking at teh positive here.
http://www.ourhometown.ca/news/EM0001.php this will probably be a PC win... but Elaine is well known (city councilor, former teacher) her daughter ran in 99 (my first election campaign was working for Maggie. It shows some muscle for the NDP out east. From 74-85 the NDP held the Cornwall portion of the riding with George Samis
Paul Loewenberg (Operations manager of two business's) is the candidate in Subdury http://www.northernlife.ca/displayArticle.aspx?id=49861
Irene Lowell (CAW activits) http://bulletnewsniagara.ca/2011/06/09/irene-lowell-nominated-as-st-catharines-ndp-candidate/ Thoughts? Sudbury is a target this time (ok probably in 07 too, but this is legit) how do these candidates stack? I think we've mentioned St. Caths is probably on the list as a potential targetToday, according to twitter, Andrea Horwath was visiting "her friend" Grant Robertson's farm in Huron-Bruce and then making a visit to support the Walkerton Jail and the workers there. I expect an announcement must be coming.
If it were all about putting heavy leverage upon Cornwall proper (and maybe a touch of rural populism for good measure), I wouldn't even write off Stormont et al--at least, to send a message that the NDP means business...
Have a look and see how it went:
re: Welland
It's a 2-person race in Welland for the NDP nomination between college professor and former police officer, Mick Riddle and former mayor, Cindy Forster. The vote is on August 7.
Well I'm not all that keen on that confused answer on the GEA, but the work done on the Walkerton Jail is important.
Local radio was actively and openly speculating on Robertson running with this going on. I can't remember the last time that was the case locally for any NDP candidate. Things have sure changed since the federal election and that seems to have rolled right over to provincial politics.