Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette bye-election

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Lttle Mudddy
Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette bye-election

 Inky the former MP was a long-time maverick in the CP,  but a much-loved and very clever politician in the riding. He had joined the ginger group of Reformers who quit the party and joined the CPCs in protest of Stockwell Day's policies.
The ginger group rejoined the party after the reform alliance was formed. Among other things he supported the Wheat Board during Harper's  vicious attacks on it's right to exist. Following that Inky was delegated to the back benches. Harper runs a tight ship. One could call it dictatorial.  I believe Harper, as he had with many other MPs, put pressure on Inky to quit. The alternative being the possibility of one of the bagfull of nasty King Steven's dirty tricks.

 Inky resigned, figuring he could return to his Dauphin base as Mayor. He considered it a safe haven as he had been a very popular mayor. On leaving he gave a subtle dig at the party. See parts of his National Post interview here  http://www.uglychinesecanadian.com/?p=489 and here http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ex-tory-mp-calls-nomination... ( the comments are also interesting).

 The riding nominations were called for in the summer of this year. There was not the usual process of mailing out a nomination kit which one would imagine would give a closing date for nominations. Inky's preferred candidate Wayne Matheson stated that early on he was told by the national office to hold off putting himself forward until the bye-election was called. One would imagine that other potential candidates were also told this.
The riding nomination committee was not formed until the day before nominations closed in late summer, the busiest time of year for farmers. The potential candidates were supposedly informed by an automated telephone service. There was only one acclaimed candidate, Robert Sopuck, altho others had expressed interest in running.
 
Inky protested to many former PC MPs about the the nomination process, without getting any support. The fix was on and and none of them dared oppose Harper and the national council. The President of the riding Brian Chita launched an appeal of the process on behalf of the local Conservative board.and sent a long letter  to riding members stating “a process that failed to follow our party's candidate nomination rules, thereby limiting your opportunity to take part in the process.” It was of course rejected by the national council. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ex-tory-mp-calls-nomination...

It's interesting to note that Brian Chita, who admittedly ran for mayor of Dauphin in the previous election, ran as a mayoralty candidate against Inky. One would imagine that the riding president of Inkys long-time held riding would have deferred to him in the mayorality contest. One must wonder whether the Harper SS exerted pressure on him to run. Inky lost by 40 votes.

Robert Supock is/was a paid staffer of the Frontier Center for Public policy, a harder-right subsiduary of the Frazer Institute which is funded by many of the large corporations, especially the oil-patch industry.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Frontier_Centre_for_Public_Po....
"http://www.desmogblog.com/calgary-foundation-friends-friends-science#com.... They also support Tim Ball a noted antienvironmentalist and friend of big oil. http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Tim_Ball.

 FCPP is an active player in the climate change debunker movement, and likely linked to the "Calgary School" of Harper and many of his advisors, folllowers of the Plutocrat Leo Straus. Strauss was the ideological underpinning for most of the neocons and upper elite of the GW Bush administration. http://evatt.labor.net.au/publications/papers/112.html
http://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2005/11/29/HarperBush/   http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2003/05/12/030512fa_fact

 Sopuck will certainly not step out of line with Harper's devious policies,  nor support The Wheat Board's continuance which impedes Harpers plans to turn the nations agriculture over to big business. Indeed he will urge  for policies even more right-wing, such as weakening our Medicare, cutting welfare expenditures, and of course even weaker environmental laws.

 I don't buy the common conception that Swan River-Marquette is a PC shoo-in even with the gerrymandering some years back which brought in to the riding the prosperous regions of Neepawa-Minnidosa. We are still, if I remember correctly, the 4th poorest federal riding in Canada and one of the largest. Inky was the glue which held it together for the conservatives. There were Liberal MPs before Inky and even an NDP MP. The riding is also surrounded by provincial NDP ridings and of course the Swan River riding is held by Rosanne Wowchuck the present Treasurer.

 There must be many dissaffected Conservatives especially if the electorate is informed on Sopucks affiliations and his real positions. He even has the audacity of presenting himself as an enviromentalist when his main interest there is his hunting background. This guy must be defeated because if he gets elected this gives him credence which will carry over to the next election.

 Inky, understandably, is pissed off and is now mobilizing behind the Green Party candidate Kate Storey. This could seriously split the CP support in the south of voters who would never vote NDP. The Liberals are no threat but do reduce CP support.

 Denise Harder, the NDP candidate is very credible and competent, a Cupe staffer and chairman of the midmanitoba health authority. She was born in Ste Rose du Lac, but now lives in Portage La Prairie, just outside the riding (which of course the CPers are making much of). Jack and Olivia were supposed to be at a rally in Dauphin today, but the roads out here are virtually impassable because of a blizzard the last few days. This seat is winnable with more support from the NDP National Council. Keep a close eye on this riding. Harper and the CP might be in for a big surprise.

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Does anybody know why the man born Mài Dǐnghóng decided to call himself "Inky Mark" when he moved to Canada?  You'd think there'd be some sort of joke attached to that decision.

Lttle Mudddy

Ken Burch wrote:

Does anybody know why the man born Mài Dǐnghóng decided to call himself "Inky Mark" when he moved to Canada?  You'd think there'd be some sort of joke attached to that decision.

 

 Your insightful and astute political analysis overwhelms me. I am in awe. Perhaps it was because he was forced to cut off his que so he couldn't go back and be buried in China. Can you imagine someone running for office with his chinese name on a ballot ? In rural Canada years ago ? Could he even get a job ?

Stockholm

Lttle Mudddy wrote:

Can you imagine someone running for office with his chinese name on a ballot ? In rural Canada years ago ? Could he even get a job ?

True, but then why be "Inky Mark" which is still kind of an odd name. If you want to anglicize your name and be more employable and electable in rural Canada - why not go all the way and be "Tyler Wolverhampton"?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Lttle Mudddy wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Does anybody know why the man born Mài Dǐnghóng decided to call himself "Inky Mark" when he moved to Canada?  You'd think there'd be some sort of joke attached to that decision.

 

 Your insightful and astute political analysis overwhelms me. I am in awe. Perhaps it was because he was forced to cut off his que so he couldn't go back and be buried in China. Can you imagine someone running for office with his chinese name on a ballot ? In rural Canada years ago ? Could he even get a job ?

You are assuming a racist intent in my question that is was totally absent, and your line about cutting off the "que" was more bigoted than anything I would ever even have allowed myself to think(btw, when Mr. Mark left China, he was only six, and it was four years AFTER Mao's revolution, so he wouldn't even have had a cue to cut off).

Anglicizing the name I could see.  Making it "Inky Mark" was a bit more out there. 

Besides, Mr. Mark entered federal politics in 1997, which wasn't THAT many "years ago".  It's not like he got his start when the Canadian version of the Chinese Exclusion policy was still in effect.

 

And what the heck did I do to deserve THAT much hostility in your response?

Threads

There's a very elegant explanation of how Inky Mark got "Mark" from "Mai" - he didn't.  The various Chinese dialects all use the same script, but pronounce the characters in differing ways, based on the sound changes in their respective phonological histories.  The different pronunciations could be due to consonants, or vowels, or tones, or any combination of those three.

The thing to note here is that Mai Dinghong, which is the transcription of Mark's Chinese name given on his Wikipedia article (which is what I'm assuming Ken's question arises from), is the pinyin transcription of the characters that compose his name.  Pinyin is used for Mandarin Chinese.  But Mark's family comes from Taishan, and the Taishanese dialect of Chinese is more immediately a dialect of Yue Chinese (another such dialect is Cantonese).

And as it happens, the character in Mark's Chinese name which is written mai in pinyin, is written something like mak in jyutping (a system for transcribing Cantonese).  Since Taishanese is closer to Cantonese than it is to Mandarin, chances are his family pronounced their family name somewhat more similarly to mak than to mai.

(Yes, I'm aware this is almost certainly not what Ken was asking about, but I'd finished pretty much the whole post before that fact dawned on me.)

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Well, that's actually a plausible explanation.

 

takeitslowly

Threads wrote:

There's a very elegant explanation of how Inky Mark got "Mark" from "Mai" - he didn't.  The various Chinese dialects all use the same script, but pronounce the characters in differing ways, based on the sound changes in their respective phonological histories.  The different pronunciations could be due to consonants, or vowels, or tones, or any combination of those three.

The thing to note here is that Mai Dinghong, which is the transcription of Mark's Chinese name given on his Wikipedia article (which is what I'm assuming Ken's question arises from), is the pinyin transcription of the characters that compose his name.  Pinyin is used for Mandarin Chinese.  But Mark's family comes from Taishan, and the Taishanese dialect of Chinese is more immediately a dialect of Yue Chinese (another such dialect is Cantonese).

And as it happens, the character in Mark's Chinese name which is written mai in pinyin, is written something like mak in jyutping (a system for transcribing Cantonese).  Since Taishanese is closer to Cantonese than it is to Mandarin, chances are his family pronounced their family name somewhat more similarly to mak than to mai.

(Yes, I'm aware this is almost certainly not what Ken was asking about, but I'd finished pretty much the whole post before that fact dawned on me.)

And just to show off, "mai" means horse in Chinese! lol

and "mak" is also horse in Cantonese

Wilf Day

Threads wrote:
the character in Mark's Chinese name which is written mai in pinyin, is written something like mak in jyutping (a system for transcribing Cantonese).  Since Taishanese is closer to Cantonese than it is to Mandarin, chances are his family pronounced their family name somewhat more similarly to mak than to mai.

I find that Google Translate says the Chinese Characters for Inky Mark's name are transcribed "Mak Ting Hong." If the above needed verifying, there you are. 

Stockholm wrote:
why be "Inky Mark" which is still kind of an odd name.

Dinky ("Dǐnghóng") Mark would have been worse, surely. At age 6 he accompanied his mother when she left China to join her husband and his father in Gilbert Plains, the first town (and rail stop) west of Dauphin. (The train to Churchill still stops at Gilbert Plains twice a week, as it swings west through Canora and eight other stops in Saskatchewan's Yorkton--Melville riding before swinging back to The Pas.) 

The boy needed an anglicized first name rather quickly when he started at Gilbert Plains Elementary School, and with all the Ukrainians there, nobody was too picky. The fashion today is to make up an entirely new first name that sounds good in English. (I have a friend whose very pretty first name is ZiLin, but she uses Adele.) I expect this was not the case in 1953.

Stockholm

I realize this is major thread drift - but I wanted to mention that I've met a number of Chinese-Canadians and Chinese living in Hong Kong who have "anglo" first names (in addition to a Chinese first name) that seem a bit "odd" to Canadian ears - for example I once met someone named Johann Sebastian Wong! and there seem to be a lot of people who are given names of historical figures - so you get a lot of Winstons in hong Kong. But, what takes the cake was when i met a woman from Hong Kong named Cinderella! - seems her mother liked the fairy tale and thought it would make a good "English name" for her daughter.

dwegowy dwegowy's picture

I've met more "disaffected Conservatives" who doggedly vote Conservative every chance, than any other permutation of voter sentiment and party.

ottawaobserver

By the way, Layton did make it to Dauphin on Friday.  There is a great set of photos on Denise Harder's Facebook page.

http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=34401&id=164057203625315

ottawaobserver

Lttle Mddy, do I take it that you live in Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette riding?  If so, whereabouts?  What's the latest from up that way?

Lttle Mudddy

Yes I do live in the riding. I have 2 large NDP signs on my 109-year-old corner-block house just 1 block from the main shopping area, kitty-corner from the post office and town bulletin board, 1 block away from the library and Municipal offices, and just around the block from the Election center. Location, location !

Some of us just helped turf out a particularly bad town council who attempted to change the town's taxation from an assessment-based property-tax to a poll tax basis. That shattered usual voting patterns based on family connections and we swept the council. That could also spill over, in this community at least, into altering some of the federal right-wing voting habits.

 I retired out here to this beautiful village, about 75mi from where I was born in Grandview, when I reached 65. I had left in 1947. I lived for about 5 decades and had a particularly radical past, in Montreal and Toronto. I knew Dan Heaps, Jack and Olivia from when I was around Kensington Market. One of my heros was the old socialist Bert Herridge, the NDP MP from the Kootenays. I met him when he and the equally great Quebec judge Robert Cliche addressed a left caucus at an NDP national convention many years ago. When asked the secret of his political longetivity , he said "I wave the Red flag in the south (Trail BC. the site of some hard miner strikes) and the Union Jack in the north" ( a particularly Brit area who had many casualties in the war against fascism, WWII). My mantra here is for fairness and democracy. The same as always but not as confrontational.

 Inky knows very well that the Greens can't win the riding, and CPers would never vote NDP, but if enough of the conservative vote is pissed off at his treatment by the Harperites, they could post their vote with the greens. Some might also move to the liberals who are not electable at this time and that could allow Denise Harder, who is of aboriginal descent to breeze thru in an area of high aboriginal demographics, if they will vote. The provincial NDP is very aware of  the changing demographics as more and more of the rural non-aboriginals are forced out by the big agricultural corporations and move to the cities, while the population %age becomes more aboriginal fueled by a higher birthrate and a greater attachment to some extent, to their communities.

It's hard for me to guage at this point, especially because the NDP was late out of the starting gate, but I think Harper and the hard-right Frontier Society, of which the federally-parachuted CP candidate Robert Sopuch was a staffer, are in for a long night when the polls are counted. The CP is the only party not vowing support for the Wheat Board which local farmers, many of whom who have in the last while voted conservative, strongly support.

 I am sorry I wasn't able to reacquaint myself with Jack and Olivia but driving on treacherously snow-covered icy roads at 74 years old could end my attempts to become one of the first radical centennarians. We're usually killed or bought out. Perhaps that means I've failed. I'll have to try harder.

 

 

Wilf Day

I'd love to see this week's issues of the local papers. Does Denise Harder have as big an ad blitz as Sopuck?

That's the Dauphin Herald, Swan Valley Star and Times, Russell Banner, Roblin Review, Neepawa Press, Neepawa Banner, Minnedosa Tribune, The Exponent (Grandview and Gilbert Plains), and Crossroads This Week (Shoal Lake, Birtle, Hamiota, and Rossburn). Unfortunately, they are almost all subscriber-only.

The Neepawa Banner says:

Quote:
Denise Harder campaigned for the New Democratic Party in the last provincial election and will represent the federal party in this year's byelection.  Harder says she supports the party because "it speaks for the average Canadian rural citizen".  She continues, saying that the party's values are "things rural people care about".
Harder also sees the ability to create a strong region by working with provincial NDP MLAs Rosann Wowchuk and Stan Struthers.
At the national level, Harder said two important issues to Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette constituents are the Canadian Wheat Board and health care.  
In the future, Harder sees improved infrastructure in the region, specifically broad band internet and  cell phone service.  She'd like to see "no dead spots" in the constituency.  She continues, saying there will be an "economic boom because we have the infrastructure".
With this increased technological infrastructure, Harder sees increased additional benefits such as the ability to provide better health care to those in rural or remote communities.
Overall she says she wants to see a "thriving, strong Parkland".
For the future to happen, at the federal level, Harder said the people "need an MP who knows the issues of the people... (and) doesn't forget what her people told her".

But I still can't see their ads.

If anyone cares, this riding is 73% rural, by Stats Can's definition (they say any settlement with urban density and more than 1,000 people is an urban area, which is why they say 80% of Canadians live in urban areas). The urban 27% areas are:

Dauphin 7,906

Swan River 3,859

Neepawa 2,980

Minnedosa 2,474

Roblin 1,672

Russell 1,428 

Denise Harder's Facebook page says she was interviewed 10 days ago "by two nice young men from CTV Yorkton." I suppose that station is watched more than Winnipeg in this riding, since it's much closer. I hadn't quite realized all the connections between eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba.

ottawaobserver

Hi again Lttle Mudddy,

So was it the Grandview Council where you staged your upset, then? What happened with the Dauphin municipal elections? I'm just wondering why Inky Mark didn't win.

Also, if traditional Conservative voters are strong supporters of the Single Desk at the CWB, would they switch over to vote NDP to save the Single Desk, or would knowing the Conservative candidate wanted to end the monopoly at least keep them home?

We're very interested in hearing more about this riding, as the eastern and Winnipeg media has decided it's not worth covering as the Conservative will be a "shoo-in".

Thanks in advance for any additional background you can give us, as we're all hungry for news.

Wilf Day

ottawaobserver wrote:
So was it the Grandview Council where you staged your upset, then?

He said he was 75 miles from Grandview. Sounds more like Neepawa. Fascinating story. I hope our west Manitoba correspondent will give us more reports.

Aristotleded24

Just for a point of reference, in 1984 the NDP had less than 20% in St. Johns East and the Yukon to the PCs. It went on to win both seats in the by-elections held in 1987.

Lttle Mudddy

ottawaobserver wrote:

Hi again Lttle Mudddy,

So was it the Grandview Council where you staged your upset, then? What happened with the Dauphin municipal elections? I'm just wondering why Inky Mark didn't win.

Also, if traditional Conservative voters are strong supporters of the Single Desk at the CWB, would they switch over to vote NDP to save the Single Desk, or would knowing the Conservative candidate wanted to end the monopoly at least keep them home?

We're very interested in hearing more about this riding, as the eastern and Winnipeg media has decided it's not worth covering as the Conservative will be a "shoo-in".

Thanks in advance for any additional background you can give us, as we're all hungry for news.

 

 No it was actually in Winipegosis.(I hope the identity thieves, or worse, the CPs SS don't get ahold of this) :^{

 I thought I had laid it out pretty obviously in my original post.

In the Dauphin mayoralty election Inky lost by 40 votes. He had been an extremely popular mayor which won him a seat as a Reform Party candidate and gave him 3 federal MP terms with landslide votes even tho he had quit and rejected the Reform Party under Stockwell(Doris) Day. He and the Ginger groupof PCers rejoined the non-progressive Conservatives under the leadership of Der Fuerher Harper, an enthusiast of the Calgary School's ideological idol Leo Strauss. A Plutocrat who couldn't abide democracy.

 Inky was a maverick with full confidence in the support of his riding and also a clever politician. He headed several parlimentary committees, but knowing the views of his constituency couldn't support Harper's attempts to get rid of the Wheat Board which farmers during the 30s fought so hard for to break the power of the Grain Barons, and are smart enough not to give in to the blandishments of Harper and the big US corporations. It has the support of virtually all the farmers, except for a few wealthy big busines shills

 So Inky was delegated to the back benches, and undoubtably felt he had no future in parliament and resigned figuring he could easily go back to a refuge as mayor of Dauphin. On his way out he got off a shot at the lack of independence of MPs and most figured as well as Inky himself I imagine, he was a shoo-in. He mounted a very strong campaign with 1/4 page ads in the Herald( which also appeared in the Parkland shopper, a free local advertising-sheet by the Herald, read by most including myself. He didn't count on the nasty vindictiveness of Godfather Harper. Inky hadn't gone quietly after experiencing Harper's wrath because he responded to his constituents

Here's the election results from CTV

Eric Irwin was voted in as mayor in Dauphin, beating out three other candidates in the city, accodring to unofficial results on Wednesday night.
Irwin, a lawyer, won 1289 votes, narrowly beating former Conservative MP Inky Mark who won 1253 votes, former deputy mayor Brian Chita who won 702 votes and incumbent mayor Alex Paul who won 237 votes.

 

 Brian Chita, the president of Inky's long-time former Conservative riding takes 702 votes, most of which would have likely gone to Inky. Chita had also complained about the fraudulent nominations earlier. One would think he'd be at least deferrent to his former riding MP and bow out of running for mayor.

 Your terminology of "Single Desk at the CWB" shows how pervasive the right-wing propoganda is. It's opposite is "Free Trade"which most people in the Americas have learned, ain't so free. The right-wing agricorps in the US has been screaming about the Can WB for years. Why ?

Coffee workers in SA have banded together in a "Fair Trade" organization to get a fair shake for their labor. Is this so different if the WB deprives the big corporations of controlling the price AND sales price of grain ? Which they certainly did in the time of the robber grain barons. DeBoors has no financial crirics for it's "monopoly".

 It isn't conservative voters who support the Wheat Board it's Farmers who do, and only one party, the CP, opposes it because they want to turn Agribusiness even more over to the large corporations. The PCs aren't opposed to monopolies as long as Big Money controls it. Which is why you don't hear them yelping about "single desk" selling in all the agribusiness, like milk, eggs, or chickens.  Because big corporations have contol of those products.

Hide-bound conservatives will never vote for the NDP, but some might vote for the Greens, with Inky mobilizing behind Kate Storey as well as the many Inky Loyalists who had voted Conservative and others pissed off at how Inky was jobbed.

 Then of course there is the personage of Robert Sopuck himself. A would-be "little corporal"

ottawaobserver

Thank you very much. I didn't realize that use of the term "Single Desk" itself was already conceding some ideological terrain, or perhaps I haven't understood well enough. Certainly the ads I saw for the CWB directors elections talked about being in favour of the Single Desk.

So, your interpretation of the Dauphin mayoralty race was that someone was deliberately run against Mark to split his vote? Wow, that's cold. It certainly explains his campaigning for the Greens now.

I hope you will take a second to keep us informed of any other developments in the riding over the next week.  There has been virtually no coverage of it in the outside world, and it seems there may be reason to believe something's brewing there after all!

Thanks again!

Wilf Day

Lttle Mudddy wrote:
it was actually in Winipegosis.

Silly of me to miss that. "Winnipegosis is derived from a Cree word meaning "Little Muddy Water," so your handle was a pretty good clue.

Lovely village. I especially like the job they've done on the old railway station (now the Museum). (I checked it out on Google Earth.) Easterners would never guess the rails went as far north as that as early as 1897. Restoring 1897 railway stations is something I associate with towns like Port Hope.

ottawaobserver

Wilf Day never ceases to amaze me.

Aristotleded24

Lttle Mudddy wrote:
It's hard for me to guage at this point, especially because the NDP was late out of the starting gate, but I think Harper and the hard-right Frontier Society, of which the federally-parachuted CP candidate Robert Sopuch was a staffer, are in for a long night when the polls are counted. The CP is the only party not vowing support for the Wheat Board which local farmers, many of whom who have in the last while voted conservative, strongly support.

I really want to believe this, but aside from us lefties talking about this on an obscure discussion board, are there other indications you can point to that might support this contention? I'm not picking on you or questioning your judgement, and I agree that the NDP should invest a great deal, I just know historically how strong the Conservative brand is in that seat.

Lttle Mudddy

Just picked up that issue of the Herald. The rest of the much longer article focuses on the Harperites attempt to kill the Wheat Board and turn it over to the tender mercies of the likes of the huge US grain conglomerate Cargill.

 The Wheat Board issue is becoming a major issue in the riding. There was reasoning in the politically clever Inky Mark's non-support of Harpers moves against it, which delegated him to the back benches and his eventual resignation.

There was no editorial comment in this issue due, as the Herald says, because of the space taken by the letters to the editor.

One was headed "Democracy has been eroded" in which the author who was present at the CP riding non-nomination meeting writes "The forced choice for this riding is an insult to the Conservatives of Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette and a deliberate purloining of our voice.  This illegality of the Conservative party has prompted our resignation from this political group." There was much else in the same vein in his letter. Another letter was a comment on an earlier letter regarding the Wheat Board, and denied that the head of the Canola Board was against the Wheat Board's single desk. The Canola board's head was cited in this interesting article.

http://www.umanitoba.ca/faculties/arts/departments/philosophy/ethics/med...

 A new wrinkle has been added to elections out here. A conference call Town Hall Forum. The first, which I missed, was done by the NDP last week. The Liberals also got me on their list and I listened to the Forum last night. It included the local candidate, Iggy, and a Lib policy hack. There was input for questions, and the most commented on was on the wheat board (all supportive).

 If anyone is interested in learning more about western farmer's issues,  you might check out this site where most of Paul Beingessner's articles are archived. He is, to me, perhaps the greatest prairie jounalist of modern times and was syndicated in many rural papers, including the Grandview Exponent, where I first discovered him. He died to all our loss, last year of a farm accident.  http://parkland_man.blogspot.com/

 

 

Aristotleded24

Is the Wheat Board enough of an issue, or will all the Wheat Board votes end up split among the challengers and the Conservatives come up the middle?

edmundoconnor

I think if Sopuck doesn't win, or wins but struggles to beat Harder, it'll be embarrassing to those parts of the media (pretty much all of them) who decided that a Tory was going to win here, because, hey, they're just rednecks out there. Maybe the result will force some re-examination of the stereotype.

Who am I kidding? Calgary's new mayor didn't change a damn thing. The Torontonian press gods know all! All!

KenS

Two different questions there.

One is the question of how splits will fall if the CWB is a deciding factor against previous Conservative voters repeating.

Cant speak to the riding. But generally thats going to depend mostly on the two big factors: comparative pre-existing on the ground visibility of the challenging parties, and comparative strength and attractiveness of the candidates and their campaigns.

[Plus how many of the switchers from the Cons will only vote for one other party- which is going to be a regional trend more than riding specific.]

So if one of the other candidates is with the party perceived to have always been the main challenger; and in this campaign is perceived to have a strong candidate, signs all over, and visible supprt from a strong national leader.... he or she is going to get the bulk of the votes leaving the Conservatives.

[And ditto for those who will desert the Conservatives because of the nomination process, and dont just stay home.]

Wilf Day

"Take the $100,000, put it in the bank, earn a bit of interest and send it back," said Ritz.

 

Quote:
Federal Minister of Agriculture Gerry Ritz was in Neepawa on Nov. 19 . . . In response to a question about farm cash flow, Ritz said he was somewhat amazed that with $400,000 is available on an advance basis to farmers and the first $100,000 being interest-free. He felt that more farmers should take advantage of the program.

Addressing about 30 farmers and interested rural leaders Ritz said, "Agriculture is a business that runs in being able to make decisions and move forward. Farmers want to get their dollars from the marketplace, not the mailbox." The mailbox remark refers to the fact that at many times in the past farmers have made part of their income by utilizing farm aid and insurance programs.

 

 

 

Wilf Day

A recent commercial or video for Denise Harder mentions that she is from Long Plain First Nation, a community of about 800 southwest of Portage La Prairie, in Portage--Lisgar riding. I don't think this has been mentioned in print.

[img]http://www.facebook.com/?ref=home#!/video/video.php?v=501432919001&oid=1...

edmundoconnor

Wilf Day wrote:

A recent commercial or video for Denise Harder mentions that she is from Long Plain First Nation, a community of about 800 southwest of Portage La Prairie, in Portage--Lisgar riding. I don't think this has been mentioned in print.

[img]http://www.facebook.com/?ref=home#!/video/video.php?v=501432919001&oid=1...

Link (doesn't show up in your original posting, for some reason).

Lttle Mudddy

I believe the results will depend on several things. The general strong support for the Wheat Board and against the Harper government's moves to dismantle it, whether the NDP's stance to AMMEND the long gun registry is taken seriously (most rural people 3 guns,a .22 calibre, a shotgun, and a higher calibre rifle for larger animals, so it can be expensive), and the outrage against the fraudulent nominations, which had sopuck run unapposed, and was protested by many CP members. Inky Mark was an extremely popular MP and has thrown his support to the Green's candidate Kate Storey as a protest vote for his supporters, which is important since most Conservatives in the south part of the riding would never vote for the NDP.(The riding was gerrymandered some time back to include the Marquette riding which had the prosperous Neepawa/Minnedosa areas)

 The Liberal party is running a very young little-known candidate and are widely disliked out here. If the PC vote is split over this issue, then some of Mark vote would go to the Greens, a certain number to the Libs, and the rest to the NDP.

 The press pundits who look only at the increasing Conservative vote since Mark was first elected, are missing the popularity of the maverick Mark as the main reason for the riding's lop-sided wins by Mark.

 Another determinant will be if Denise Harder can get out the Aboriginal vote who make up a large segment of the riding's population, but generally don't bother voting. The large local Metis community also don't show up in aboriginal population stats.

 The NDP was late out of the starting gate, even though Inky had resigned almost a year ago. Lately however, the NDP has mounted a strong campaign, with the well reported and featured in the Dauphin Herald visit to Dauphin by Jack Layton, multiple daily NDP radio plugs on Dauphin radio(which I imagine was also done on other regional radio) and a 1/4 page ad in the Herald, as Sopuck has also done. She's been working hard and could even have a higher presence than Sopuck.

 I see the outcome as a close fight between the NDP and the CP, a stronger vote % than before by the Greens with the Libs closely behind Storey.

Aristotleded24

Lttle Mudddy wrote:
The riding was gerrymandered some time back to include the Marquette riding which had the prosperous Neepawa/Minnedosa areas

Minnedosa shouldn't be that bad, because it was part of the Minnedosa constituency which at the provincial level almost delivered for the NDP in 2003 and had a respectable showing in 2007.

E.Tamaran

Lttle Mudddy wrote:

 Another determinant will be if Denise Harder can get out the Aboriginal vote who make up a large segment of the riding's population, but generally don't bother voting.

Voting in settler elections is pointless.

adma

Besides an Inky "endorsement", another thing which *could* buoy Green hopes was their surprising share in Brandon-Souris next door in 2008.

Policywonk

E.Tamaran wrote:

Lttle Mudddy wrote:

 Another determinant will be if Denise Harder can get out the Aboriginal vote who make up a large segment of the riding's population, but generally don't bother voting.

Voting in settler elections is pointless.

You should tell that to the people of Old Crow. They consistently have the highest turnout of any constituency (territorial) or poll (federal) in the Yukon.

edmundoconnor

X-posted from the by-election thread

Interesting story from CBC.

The section re: the Dauphin seat in the above story has a wishful Tory spin. My, my, Sopuck is considered a "shoo-in", is he? Did you do ANY on-the-ground reporting on this, CBC, or were you oblivious to Mark making very rude noises about the Tory nomination process, etc., etc.? Rather telling that you mention the Liberal candidate there (who seems to be a complete non-factor), but there's no mention of Harder, or of Layton visiting the riding. While Sopuck is *likely* to take the seat, events in the riding make that a good deal less sure than the numbers would suggest.

Stockholm

My understanding is that the NDP wants to catch the Tories complacent and asleep at the switch in DSRM and so they are happy to have the national media pay no attention to that byelection and to totally downplay the strength of the NDP campaign there.

Aristotleded24

Lttle Mudddy wrote:
The riding was gerrymandered some time back to include the Marquette riding which had the prosperous Neepawa/Minnedosa areas

Of all the provincial constituencies that overlap with the federal constituency, Ste. Rose was the weakest constituency for the NDP at 33%. This is also where Denise ran previously. If the provincial vote is any indication, there are a great deal of votes to be held throughout.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

E.Tamaran wrote:

Lttle Mudddy wrote:

 Another determinant will be if Denise Harder can get out the Aboriginal vote who make up a large segment of the riding's population, but generally don't bother voting.

Voting in settler elections is pointless.

Would a REAL FN person say that?  It sounds like something from the scam artist on THIS side of the border who was trying to encourage Hispanics not to vote in the midterm Congressional elections(supposedly to remind Democrats not to take Hispanic voters for granted), and who was later exposedd as an operative of the Republican party, and the large gains made by that party will now likely doom chances for the passage of legislation providing amnesty and safety for undocumented immigrants forced to work in the U.S. by the economic consequences of NAFTA.

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

I don't know if E.Tamaran is a real First Nations person.  I do know that there is a body of opinion among First Nations people that voting in "settler elections" (not a common phrase, but not unknown) is a dimunition of FN sovreignty.  So, it COULD be a real FN person.

Aristotleded24

I am very disappointed that voters in Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette have, after shaking things up municipally last month, decided to reward a party machinery and apparatus that took their votes for granted and made no effort.

ottawaobserver

ETA: Evidently, they've changed the front page since I posted it last week, eh! (no longer Jack Layton and Denise Harder, but the Conservative victor Bob Sopuck with a youngster in his arms.)

Who are you

Aristotleded24 wrote:

I am very disappointed that voters in Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette have, after shaking things up municipally last month, decided to reward a party machinery and apparatus that took their votes for granted and made no effort.

The voter is always right.  Whats disappointing is this type of commentary leaves the impression of elitism and that will turn voters off faster than Campbells fall from grace.  No one should never ever criticize the electorate.  If you do you lose them.  No one likes to be told how they should vote or that they failed in how they voted.  Parties should congratulate the electorate and then work on earning the vote away from the other parties, you can not force voters to vote your way you have to earn it.  It was obvious that Cons earned the vote and the other parties couldn't earn them.  No different is Winnipeg or Vaughn.

Aristotleded24

Who are you wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

I am very disappointed that voters in Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette have, after shaking things up municipally last month, decided to reward a party machinery and apparatus that took their votes for granted and made no effort.

The voter is always right.  Whats disappointing is this type of commentary leaves the impression of elitism and that will turn voters off faster than Campbells fall from grace.  No one should never ever criticize the electorate.  If you do you lose them.  No one likes to be told how they should vote or that they failed in how they voted.  Parties should congratulate the electorate and then work on earning the vote away from the other parties, you can not force voters to vote your way you have to earn it.  It was obvious that Cons earned the vote and the other parties couldn't earn them.  No different is Winnipeg or Vaughn.

Do you ever plan on making an actual contribution to this discussion board? Since when does anybody here need to vet their opinions of election results by you?

Lttle Mudddy

Well, I was obviously wrong in my analysis. The NDP did get an increased vote, but the Greens Kate Storey, endorsed by Inky, had a minimal increase, much surpassed by the Liberals. Inky's moves, including letters to the editor of the Dauphin Herald obviously made little difference or else no one was even paying attention. Supock was campaigning right from when he was designated the candidate by Harper, while the NDP didn't really start their campaign until about 3 weeks before the election. The NDP riding committee didn't even have campaign literature untill about 2 weeks before the vote even though they had notice almost a year before. Is it any wonder the NDP Federal Party is felt by most voters out here to have abandoned the roots of the CCF to concentrate on the more fruitful urban voters in the big cities. Both local MLA's Struthers and provincial treasurer Wowchuck did come out in support of Harder but it was somewhat low profile. The voter turnout was around 25% on a cold windy day.

Another thing is that the aboriginal community didn't come out for one of their own. Grassroots News "Manitoba's Aboriginal Newspaper" had a 1/2 page ad by Denise Harder, while Kevin Chief the NDP candidate for Winnipeg North had a 1/8 page ad, in the Nov 23 issue. In the 32 page copy it had a 1/3 page on page 8 about the bye-elections. The article devoted only about 1/2 a PARAGRAPH about Denise and the rest was on Kevin Chief who was expected to win ! E Tamaran's comment "Voting in settlers elections is pointless" comes to mind.

 When one lives in rural ridings, particularly one of the largest in Canada, it is difficult to access the overall feeling unless you're a local travelling salesman. In the Dauphin area it appeared in the last 2 weeks as a strong campaign, and there was reportedly many Harder signs in Dauphin. Can anyone point me to a poll by poll reporting of the results ?

 

 

 

Aristotleded24

Lttle Mudddy wrote:
Another thing is that the aboriginal community didn't come out for one of their own. Grassroots News "Manitoba's Aboriginal Newspaper" had a 1/2 page ad by Denise Harder, while Kevin Chief the NDP candidate for Winnipeg North had a 1/8 page ad, in the Nov 23 issue. In the 32 page copy it had a 1/3 page on page 8 about the bye-elections. The article devoted only about 1/2 a PARAGRAPH about Denise and the rest was on Kevin Chief who was expected to win ! E Tamaran's comment "Voting in settlers elections is pointless" comes to mind.

Which is even more ironic considering that Chief lost.

Who are you

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Who are you wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

I am very disappointed that voters in Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette have, after shaking things up municipally last month, decided to reward a party machinery and apparatus that took their votes for granted and made no effort.

The voter is always right.  Whats disappointing is this type of commentary leaves the impression of elitism and that will turn voters off faster than Campbells fall from grace.  No one should never ever criticize the electorate.  If you do you lose them.  No one likes to be told how they should vote or that they failed in how they voted.  Parties should congratulate the electorate and then work on earning the vote away from the other parties, you can not force voters to vote your way you have to earn it.  It was obvious that Cons earned the vote and the other parties couldn't earn them.  No different is Winnipeg or Vaughn.

Do you ever plan on making an actual contribution to this discussion board? Since when does anybody here need to vet their opinions of election results by you?

All I said was that the voter is always right.  No elitest wanna be has the right to criticize the voter, they can only be dissapointed with the results.  The electorate are not engaged because all parties are telling them what to do.  Not asking the electorate what they want.  They view the parties as elitest and comments criticizing them just confirms their belief.  In stead of chastizing the voters A24 why not contribute discussion on how to win the voter?  That would be an actual contribution to this discussion board.  Wink

Aristotleded24

Who are you wrote:
In stead of chastizing the voters A24 why not contribute discussion on how to win the voter?  That would be an actual contribution to this discussion board.  Wink

I have seen elections where candidates try very hard to win over people's votes, only for the winning candidate to coast to victory on partisan connections, his or her big name, or what have you.

genstrike

well, I guess at the end of the day this is rabble.  Predictions for the NDP tend to be wildly optimistic on here to say the least.