Next Manitoba Premier

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Unionist

What do you mean "of course"?? What prevents him from resigning right now? How can a premier announce his next plum career move to go work for Stephen Harper, but carry on in the meantime? Doesn't EI pay enough? Doesn't Manitoba have a deputer premier???

Doer is a shameless careerist and a neo-Liberal, and it's awfully nice to see his hypocrisy being defended here. Goes well with Selinger making financial promises that he forgot to implement during his 9 years and 11 months as finance minister.

 

Fidel

Unionist wrote:
Doer is a shameless careerist and a neo-Liberal,

Bullshit

aka Mycroft

Paul Moist was rumoured to be interested a few years ago. Are there any recent indications?

Unionist

Fidel wrote:

Unionist wrote:
Doer is a shameless careerist and a neo-Liberal,

Bullshit

Yeah, I'd add that too - good point.

aka Mycroft wrote:
Paul Moist was rumoured to be interested a few years ago. Are there any recent indications?

Good question. I hope not, for selfish reasons, because I think he's a huge asset where he is right now (notwithstanding that some consider not enough like Sid Ryan...). He's a diplomat and has the ability to overcome cheap inter-union rivalries. I like him.

 

Fidel

The average person would be confused by the rabid anti-NDP rhetoric in this thread by those sewing dubious seeds of doubt and concern. It's against babble policy to post false and misleading bullshit at the same time.

Canadian neoliberalism 101:

Mulroney was instrumental in beginning  the top-down neoliberal agenda in Canada.

Chretien and Martin were neoliberal stooges for the top-down federal neoliberalism foisted on the provinces.

Grant Devine's conservative caucus were stooges for neoliberalism. And some of them went to jail for being caught with hands in cookie jar.

Gary Philmon was a crooked neoliberal stooge with pawning off Manitoba's most profitable utility to rich friends of the conservative party. Today's Conservatives love crooking taxpayers as much as any Liberal Party does.

Ralph Klein was neoliberal with giving away the oil and gas for peanuts and raiding Heritage Fund to cover up the theft.

Pinocchio in Ontario is a neoliberaler.

Campbell is a neoliberaler with power deregulation and privatizing BC's rivers.

Gary Doer has worked marvels with balancing budgets(not neoliberal), maintaining Canada's lowest cost of living among all Canadian provinces(not neoliberal) and refusing temptations to pawn off Manitoba's next-most profitable utility after the neoliberal 90's selloffs, Manitoba Hydro, to private enterprising jackals.

Quote:
[url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberalism#Canada]In Canada,[/url] these policies are often associated with Brian Mulroney, Mike Harris, Ralph Klein, Gordon Campbell and Stephen Harper.[/url]

 

Unionist

Fidel wrote:

Gary Doer has worked marvels with balancing budgets(not neoliberal)

That's socialism.

Quote:
... maintaining Canada's lowest cost of living among all Canadian provinces(not neoliberal)

Not true, either - even if you ignore the fact that "cost of living" means nothing unless you compare wages too!

Anyway, if you're a single parent earning $30,000, here's what it costs to live (Source: Govt. of Manitoba website):

 

Whoops! almost 30% cheaper in Québec than in socialist Manitoba!! Those damn statistics, eh?

Quote:
... and refusing temptations to pawn off Manitoba's next-most profitable utility after the neoliberal 90's selloffs, Manitoba Hydro, to private enterprising jackals.

Doer used to be Minister in charge of the Manitoba Telephone System. The minute his party lost power, the Tories sold it off. He's been back for 10 years, but hasn't even tried to acquire it back. That tells you what will happen in case anyone ever decides to sell off Hydro. Not neoliberal? I don't know. Cowardly? Yup.

 

Fidel

And here are two more graphs for you to drool over

 

[IMG]http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v697/rabblerabble/Capture-19.gif[/IMG]

 

[IMG]http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v697/rabblerabble/Capture-18.gif[/IMG]

 

Unionist wrote:
Doer used to be Minister in charge of the Manitoba Telephone System. The minute his party lost power, the Tories sold it off.

 

If we apply your logic to a real neoliberal stooge in Brian Mulroney, we could say that he was a socialist for not privatizing the Bank of Canada in mirroring the US Federal Reserve. But it would be absurd. What you're saying about who is responsible for half-baked neoliberalism in Manitoba is absurd.

 

In fact, real provincial level neoliberal stooges like Mike Harris and Pinocchio McGuinty have backed off major neoliberal policy planks here in Ontario with OH privatization and deregulation. And it's because it doesnt work to do what proponents of neoliberal deregulation and privatization said it would.

 

And they actually can't do much about the $100 billion dollar infrastructure deficit in Canada's largest economy since being starved of federal transfers since 1995 and even before that under Mulroney. It helps if you know the recent history of neoliberalism in Canada.

Unionist

In August 2009, the average hourly wage in Manitoba was $19.60.

In the same month, the average hourly wage in Québec was $20.73, or 5.7% higher.

Factor that in, and your argument falls apart - even for those tables you cherry-picked. Let me know if you'd like me to do the math.

[url=http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/labr69f-eng.htm]Statistics Canada.[/url]

Fidel

Unionist wrote:

In August 2009, the average hourly wage in Manitoba was $19.60.

In the same month, the average hourly wage in Québec was $20.73, or 5.7% higher.

Factor that in, and your argument falls apart - even for those tables you cherry-picked. Let me know if you'd like me to do the math.

[url=http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/labr69f-eng.htm]Statistics Canada.[/url]

That's average wage, which is a bullshit statistic anyway. Could you be any more vague about the situation in a province that has lost the second largest number of prosperous full-time jobs next to neoliberal-Liberal Ontario? Unemployment rates are a bit better in the prairie provinces.

So don't forget to factor in [url=http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/labour-travail/lfs-epa/lfs-epa-... force participation rates[/url] and [url=http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpposted/archive/2009/03/13/feb... rates[/url], and [url=http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090603/t090603a2-eng.htm]median family incomes by province[/url] into your calculations, professor.

Unionist

Our jazz festival is better than their folk festival.

 

Fidel

I have yet to see a world class formula car race in any city. I liked LaRonde when I was there a few years ago. Montreal is a wonderful city. Have to make Mecca to a cemetary somewhere there in the middle of town to see some dead relatives.

Winston

Selinger swept River Heights (21 delegates) and Fort Rouge (24 delegates) tonight.  Swan and Ashton suporters were not even close.

jas

Unionist wrote:

Our jazz festival is better than their folk festival.

Our cheese nips are better than your poutine. Or, as Manitobans would call it: "poo-teeen".

(OK, I don't really know what a cheese nip is still, but I'm pretty sure they're better anyway.)

 

jas

Unionist wrote:

Our jazz festival is better than their folk festival.

At the risk of starting a possible civil war, I am going to state one true fact: Manitoba beer is better than Queebeck beer. (Actually, almost any beer is better than Quebec beer.)

* engraves the above true fact in stone then ducks and runs *

 

Unionist

jas wrote:

Unionist wrote:

Our jazz festival is better than their folk festival.

Our cheese nips are better than your poutine. Or, as Manitobans would call it: "poo-teeen".

(OK, I don't really know what a cheese nip is still, but I'm pretty sure they're better anyway.)

 

Well, from a survival viewpoint, there's little to choose between poutine and a good ole Sals nip 'n chips (I used to favour chili nips myself in my less fat-free days). But I no longer make ritual pilgrimages to Salisbury House on my occasional trips to Winnipeg. The lowliest greasy spoon in Montréal outperforms the classiest joints in the Peg, in quality, service, and price. And it's not just me saying it - I surveyed half a dozen of my equally chauvinistic Prairie émigré buddies here. Accurate within 3%, 19 times out of 20.

jas wrote:
At the risk of starting a possible civil war, I am going to state one true fact: Manitoba beer is better than Queebeck beer.

There'll be nothing civil about that war once the hostilities break out.

Winston wrote:
Selinger swept River Heights...

See? Who said he was useless?

 

Stockholm

Winston wrote:

Selinger swept River Heights (21 delegates) and Fort Rouge (24 delegates) tonight.  Swan and Ashton suporters were not even close.

I'm just curious about the process is the delegate selection meetings. Is it winner take all or is it based on some sort of proportional allocation of delegates pledged to each candidate based on how many votes there were for each slate?

ghoris

According to the rules posted on the NDP website, "voting shall be by plurality with delegates chosen according to votes received. Alternates shall be selected in order of votes received." So it sounds like you vote for individuals pledged to a particular candidate (as opposed to a slate of delegates) and the top twenty-four vote-getters (or however many delegates are to be elected) win.

Given that delegates are allocated based on one delegate for every ten members, I'm kind of shocked that River Heights, where the NDP is perenially third and typically doesn't run much of a campaign, has almost as many members as Fort Rouge, one of the party's safest seats.

It's not surprising that Selinger did well in these contests. He seems to have the Chardonnay-socialist and granola belt vote locked up having been endorsed by all the MLAs in the area (Howard, McGifford, Altemeyer). He also did well in west Winnipeg where he has the endorsement of Jim Rondeau and Bonnie Korzienowski.

All of which is by way of saying that I think it's too early to read much into these results. If Selinger starts doing well in places like Transcona or St. Vital, then that will be very bad news for Ashton and Swan, respectively.

Stockholm

Isn't St. Vital right next dor to Selinger's home riding of St. Boniface?

ghoris

I should have been more clear that I was referring to the general area of Winnipeg known as "St. Vital", which includes a number of provincial seats - St. Vital, Riel, Seine River and Southdale (plus a chunk of Radisson if you include Windsor Park). Labour Minister Nancy Allan (St. Vital), Health Minister Theresa Oswald (Seine River) and Erin Selby (Southdale) have all endorsed Swan, while Water Stewardship Minister Christine Melnick (Riel) has endorsed Selinger. These are suburban areas, traditional Tory turf which has only elected NDP MLAs in the last couple of cycles, and I would expect that the voters in those areas would be more inclined support someone more in the mold of Doer (ie Swan) than someone like Ashton or Selinger, who seem to appeal to the more 'traditional' NDP constituencies.

Virtually all members of cabinet and caucus have made their endorsements. Swan has a slight edge on cabinet endorsements, with 7 compared to Selinger's 6. If you take caucus as a whole, however, Selinger clearly has the lead with 16 compared to 10 for Swan and 3 for Ashton.

All three candidates finally have websites up: Steve Ashton for Premier, Greg Selinger - Ready To Lead, Andrew Swan - Our Leader for Today and Tomorrow 

Tractor

Swan should be doing way better in Winnipeg than he is, so far.  I think he's just about done. The delegate selection process turns a plurality of support (no more than 34%, theoretically) into virtually 100% of the delegates if you can muster a full slate of candidates.  That's what gave Selinger most of the River Heights delegates, with less than 50% of the membership support -- same with Ashton getting Tuxedo.  Wait and watch the bigger ridings with up to 100 or more delegates up for grabs -- I'm thinking Transcona, The Maples, Inkster, The Pas, maybe Flin Flon, Interlake -- this is where we'll see whether Ashton has a hope of taking this thing to asecond ballot, let alone catch up on Selinger.

The Party Brass are well aware of this effect, and are doing all they can to keep Ashton out of the leadership.  Ashton could have walked away with most of the 200 MYND delegates if not for the party brass imposing a proportional delegate selection on them against their will.

 

Stockholm

Didn't i read that MYND endorsed Swan?

ghoris

Yesterday was "Super Thursday" with 12 ridings having DSMs. By all accounts, Swan is getting smoked at the constituency level. For example, endorsements of Swan by Dave Chomiak and Gord Mackintosh were not enough to prevent their ridings from voting for Selinger. Selinger is clearly dominating at the constituency level but Ashton has been getting a fair share of support as well. Swan might have most of the 'affiliate' (ie union) and super-delegate vote, but that's at best 20-25% of the electorate.

Unless there's a major shift in the campaign in the coming weeks, I have a hard time seeing how Selinger loses this thing. The way things are going, the only question may be whether he wins it on the first ballot or not.

This is such a weird campaign. Swan gets tagged as the 'establishment' candidate, so he suffers the backlash from the grassroots and Selinger benefits. Normally, you would think that the bean-counter, the right-hand-man, the guy with half the caucus behind him, would be viewed as the 'establishment' candidate, but not this time.

Tractor

MYND has not endorsed anyone.  Least of all Andrew Swan!

ghoris

I don't recall seeing any 'official' news of an endorsement either, however babbler genstrike indicated earlier in this thread that they had endorsed Swan. To be fair, while the MYND may not be officially endorsing anyone, it should be noted that one of the co-chairs of MYND is also reportedly a co-chair of Swan's campaign committee. Perhaps that's what genstrike was referring to.

Tractor

Ah!, well that explains things.  Rumour has it that there was disagreement in MYND over the issue of proportionate representation vs. the system being used in the ridings (whatever you want to call it...).  MYND asked for the latter, which Ashton supported, but the party brass went with the former, which Swan's campaign favoured.  This fits with the other rumour that the MYND membership is generally inclined to support Ashton, putting said Swan co-chair in a bit of a pickle!  Or should I say a bit of a "conflict of interest"...

remind remind's picture

continued over here

genstrike

Yeah, I think I must have gotten that jumbled up in my mind.  My bad

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