Nominated Candidates - Manitoba Provincial Election 2011

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ghoris
Nominated Candidates - Manitoba Provincial Election 2011

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genstrike

Here's hoping McGifford retires or gets shitcanned soon.

ghoris

OK, admittedly it's a bit early, but I've noticed that the opposition parties are starting to nominate candidates for next year's provincial election.

As I posted in another thread, the Liberals have nominated Roldan Sevillano Jr. as their candidate in the new Tyndall Park constituency, which overlaps the existing Inkster constituency (held by Liberal Kevin Lamoureux, who is departing to run federally for Judy WL's old seat) and the existing Wellington constituency (held by Culture Minister Flor Marcelino).  Former PC MLA Marcel Laurendeau is vying to recapture his old St. Norbert seat, only this time under the Liberal banner.

The Tories have started nominating candidates as well. First out of the blocks in February was Kelly de Groot in Kirkfield Park. She lost in a close race to Grant Nordman (another Tory) in St. Charles in the 2006 municipal election. She ran against Jim Rondeau in Assiniboia in 2007 and finished a fairly distant second. She's already got her website up and has been doorknocking in the constituency. I expect she'll have a good shot at retaking this traditional Tory seat.

The Tories have also nominated Scott Gillingham in St. James, Karen Velthuys in St. Norbert, Martin Morantz in River Heights, Rochelle Squires in Riel, Judy Eastman in Southdale, Jeff Wharton in Gimli and John Zasitko in Interlake. Except for Velthuys, who is a school trustee in Pembina Trails, I've never heard of any of these folks before. Morantz looks decent on paper (and apparently there were over 500 people at the nomination meeting), while Squires and Eastman appear to have lots of backroom party experience and not much else.

PC incumbents Blain Pederson, Cliff Graydon, Ralph Eichler, Ron Schuler, Kelvin Goertzen, Heather Stefanson, Cliff Cullen, Myrna Driedger and Bonnie Mitchelson have been nominated in Midland, Emerson, Lakeside, St. Paul, Steinbach, Tuxedo, Spruce Woods, Charleswood and River East, respectively.

As for Team Orange, well there's nothing on the party website to indicate that nomination meetings have even taken place. It will be interesting to see where incumbents like Flor Marcelino, Diane McGifford, Kerri Irvin-Ross, Marilyn Brick and Ron Lemieux will run given that their constituencies are all being radically altered (or eliminated) by redistribution.

If anyone else has any news or nomination gossip, please share.

Aristotleded24

genstrike wrote:
Here's hoping McGifford retires or gets shitcanned soon.

I agree.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/canada/manitoba/story/2010/12/15/mb-borotsik-politics-... Borotsik is stepping down[/url] This opens up the seat. Given the recent election victory for Shari Decter-Hirst, the NDP should (but probably won't) invest some serious resources to try and win back this riding. Same in Portage, how David Farschou is not running again and the NDP has a good shot there, as its vote total has been on the upswing in past elections.

jas

That surprises me about Borotsik. Many of them are fairly salivating, sure that they see victory next fall. Dyck is stepping down too.

jas

genstrike wrote:

Here's hoping McGifford retires or gets shitcanned soon.

Why, because Manitoba is still one of the least expensive provinces in which to get an education? Because MBA students, who actually support a tuition hike, saw the highest tuition increases?

 

Aristotleded24

jas wrote:

genstrike wrote:

Here's hoping McGifford retires or gets shitcanned soon.

Why, because Manitoba is still one of the least expensive provinces in which to get an education? Because MBA students, who actually support a tuition hike, saw the highest tuition increases?

Because she showed absolutely no leadership whatsoever on the post-secondary education file when she was overseeing it. Specfically, she failed to speak up when administration at the 3 universities was bashing the tuition freeze, and she was not able to crack down on them raising "ancilliary" fees to get around the freeze.

genstrike

I heard that constituencies need to seek permission to have a nomination meeting from head office.  Is this normal?

Aristotleded24

There probably has to be some co-ordination of nomination meetings so that things don't get confused (i.e. holding a nomination in Thompson and Virden the same evening and expecting Steve Ashton to be a guest speaker at both), but I haven't heard anything along that lines. What exactly did you hear?

genstrike

Well, I've heard that any constituency that wants to have a nomination meeting needs to seek the permission of some "Election strategy committee" or something like that.

Stockholm

Usually there is a freeze on nominations until a certain time before the election

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

Usually it's the Provincial Council or some established process to get permission to proceed with a nominating convention.  I aslo think that most sections now have a pre-clearance process for candidates (ie, criminal record check etc.).

Aristotleded24

Malcolm wrote:
Usually it's the Provincial Council or some established process to get permission to proceed with a nominating convention.  I aslo think that most sections now have a pre-clearance process for candidates (ie, criminal record check etc.).

I'd also add to that a google search in this day and age.

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

I'm not intimately familiar with the clearance checks, but I'm sure a straightforward google search or something like it would be part of it.  There is also a questionnaire about the skeletons in your closets.

ghoris

I see from the events calendar on the party website that the new Logan constituency will have its nomination meeting on Monday, January 10, 2011.  Any word on who the candidates are?  This is a new seat that essentially covers downtown and takes in chunks of the existing Fort Rouge, Minto, Wellington and Point Douglas seats. Will Flor Marcelino run here or in the new Tyndall Park seat? I guess we'll find out as of Monday.

Other upcoming nomination contests are in Spruce Woods (January 23) and Radisson (February 5). 

It looks like Assiniboia, Selkirk, Rossmere, Fort Richmond, Minto, Kildonan, Gimli, Southdale and Riel have had their meetings already. I assume the incumbents got nominated in all but Fort Richmond, another new seat. Did Marilyn Brick decide to run here or opt to stay in the new, more Tory-friendly St. Norbert seat?

 

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
Fort Richmond

Kerri Irvin-Ross was nominated for that spot.

What do you think about the shifting of the ground in Brandon?

ghoris

Irvin-Ross is running in Fort Richmond, eh? Would have thought Fort Garry-Riverview was a more natural fit, but then that would have meant Diane McGifford would be squeezed out. I'm sure the brass had a hand in co-ordinating this game of musical chairs to make sure everyone has a seat when the music stops. This smacks a bit of Becky Barrett moving over to Inkster in 1999 - a convenient way to avoid a nasty nomination fight and get a higher-profile candidate into a swing seat - but it also means that some 'past-their-best-before-date' MLAs like McGifford get a free ride in a safe seat.

A year ago I would have thought Brandon West was a real pickup opportunity (and even more so now with Borotsik's announcement), but having been back in Winnipeg over the holidays and talking about the current political state of affairs with family, old friends, former colleagues and fellow veterans of the 1990s political wars (from across the political spectrum, currently politically active and not), there seems to be a real anti-NDP sentiment out there among the general public and a lot of NDP supporters seem pretty convinced they are likely to lose in October. (Yeah, yeah, I said the same thing about Doer in 2006 but the zeitgeist of the place on this most recent visit suggested the NDP was on the outs with the public.)  If that's the case, it will be a struggle to hold onto existing seats. On the other hand, Brandon did just elect an NDP mayor so who knows?

In any event, Brandon West will be by far the best chance for an NDP pickup this cycle (possibly the only one).  I also fear for Drew Caldwell in Brandon East unless NDP numbers outside the Perimeter start improving fast.  The Tories keep getting closer and closer with each election as the residual Len Evans coattails start to dissipate.  You would know better than I, but I get the sense that Brandonites feel slighted by the lack of cabinet representation and that there is a perception that Caldwell has not been a particularly effective MLA. If the Tories get a good candidate in there (not a shnook like Waddell) Drew could be in the fight of his life.

genstrike

You mean McGifford is staying?

shit.

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
A year ago I would have thought Brandon West was a real pickup opportunity (and even more so now with Borotsik's announcement), but having been back in Winnipeg over the holidays and talking about the current political state of affairs with family, old friends, former colleagues and fellow veterans of the 1990s political wars (from across the political spectrum, currently politically active and not), there seems to be a real anti-NDP sentiment out there among the general public and a lot of NDP supporters seem pretty convinced they are likely to lose in October. (Yeah, yeah, I said the same thing about Doer in 2006 but the zeitgeist of the place on this most recent visit suggested the NDP was on the outs with the public.)  If that's the case, it will be a struggle to hold onto existing seats. On the other hand, Brandon did just elect an NDP mayor so who knows?

In any event, Brandon West will be by far the best chance for an NDP pickup this cycle (possibly the only one).  I also fear for Drew Caldwell in Brandon East unless NDP numbers outside the Perimeter start improving fast.  The Tories keep getting closer and closer with each election as the residual Len Evans coattails start to dissipate.  You would know better than I, but I get the sense that Brandonites feel slighted by the lack of cabinet representation and that there is a perception that Caldwell has not been a particularly effective MLA. If the Tories get a good candidate in there (not a shnook like Waddell) Drew could be in the fight of his life.

It does seem to me that the ground is shifting in Brandon, as the election of Decter-Hirst shows. She took all but a few west end polls. Looking at the 2 constituencies:

If the NDP doesn't pick up Brandon West, it will be because the party had an attack of Perimiteritis and decided not to invest any resources there. Borotsik is the best the Tories could do, becuase he attracted voters who wouldn't normally vote Conservative. The only person I could think of for the Tories who could match Borotsik would be Leeann Rowatt (her seat will be eliminated with the re-distribution) but unless she's willing to move, she would be vulnerable to the charge of being a parachute.

Brandon East should be safe. Yes, Errol Black lost his council seat, but by 2 votes, and local labour council president Jan Chaboyer picked up a council spot in that part of Brandon. Combined, this tells me that the NDP brand in Brandon is gaining in strength. As for Mike Waddell? I wouldn't write him off as a schnook. He is very well-respected in Brandon through his work through Youth For Christ. I actually suspect that the rising PC total for Brandon East has much, if not everything, to do with Waddell, and once again, I can't think off hand of anybody who could run in Brandon East. If people vote for their preferred local candidate, Waddell wins. If people vote for their preferred party, Caldwell wins.

genstrike
Aristotleded24

I second the motion.

Hunky_Monkey

Curious... what was so wrong with McGifford?

Aristotleded24

She showed an apalling lack of leadership in her capacity as Minister for Advanced Education, effectively going against NDP policy on the tuition freeze. Ancillary fees rose under her watch, and there was no effort whatsoever to clamp down on the university administrators.

Stockholm

Do we necessarily want politicians to "clamp down" on university administrators?? 

Hunky_Monkey

I think most students in Nova Scotia would appreciate the almost $2000 difference in tuition with Manitoba being one of the lowest in the country. 

genstrike

Stockholm wrote:

Do we necessarily want politicians to "clamp down" on university administrators?? 

It's not a matter of "clamping down".  The provincial government has every right to regulate tuition fees, and most provincial governments do so.  University administrators tend to go for the highest fees they can get away with - especially in a province like Manitoba where for many programs the U of M has a monopoly in the province, which is why it needs to be regulated.  Unfortunately, what the NDP did was start out with a decent policy (10% reduction at the outset was good, but the tuition freeze is by definition neutral, and essentially "signs off on" Tory tuition increases from the 90s), but then choose to allow so many loopholes such as ancillary fee increases, faculty specific increases, and that many students were not protected from tuition fee increases.  Then they abandoned even that and decided to increase tuition fees by 5% a year.

Besides, the NDP is clamping down on university administrators already.  They're trying to force them to freeze wages so it doesn't undermine the wage freeze they're trying to get out of MGEU.  Clearly, that's way more progressive and more beneficial to the working class than freezing or lowering tuition so working class students can go without being saddled with debt.

genstrike

Aristotleded24 wrote:

School Division Chair Jim Murray will carry the NDP banner in Brandon West, which is odd since nearly everyone who follows local politics even loosely says his views are more in line with the PC Party.

Anyone who has followed Manitoba politics as of late wouldn't consider that odd.

Fidel

I feel badly for all those dentistry and MBA students in Manitoba whose tuition increases will be the highest. It sucks to be middle and upper-middle class in that province. Meanwhile students in Liberal Ontario are paying highest tuition fees in the country on average. 

 

Aristotleded24

genstrike wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:
School Division Chair Jim Murray will carry the NDP banner in Brandon West, which is odd since nearly everyone who follows local politics even loosely says his views are more in line with the PC Party.
Anyone who has followed Manitoba politics as of late wouldn't consider that odd.

In Murray's case, I think it's more a desire to attach himself to a winning team as opposed to advocating for one viewpoint or another.

Aristotleded24

I believe the Tories will nominate a businessman by the name of Reg Hewler. I'm certainly not familiar with the name, but if he expects to just wave his PC membership card and expect Brandon residents to line up like lemmings and vote for him as they have in the past, he will be in for a rough surprise. As for that race, all candidates have their own potential and baggage, so I think the local campaigns will really play a role.

I agree with your assessment of all the Tories leaving. Almost a quarter of their caucus is stepping down, in fact I can actually name more total Tory candidates not running than NDPers (which would be Brick and McGifford). If I were the NDP, I'd certainly put resources into Brandon, Portage, and Lac du Bonnet because in each case, there is history the NDP can rely on, or they are polling new ground (assuming they can survive the BiPoleIII backlash). Assuming Lameroux is re-elected next month, that means Tyndall Park will almost certainly go to the NDP, so if the election goes well, the Tories are going to have a tough time keeping their ground overall, much less breaking new ground. They might win new seats in south Winnipeg, but that could easily be off-set by NDP pick-ups I just mentioned.

I'l also say that the provincail polling in Manitoba does not add up. Supposedly, the NDP is trailing the Tories quite significantly, and yet they are still tied in Winnipeg. I don't understand where that is coming from, since Winnipeg is the major centre. The only thing I can think of that would explain that would be if the Tories were beginning to break new ground in northern Manitoba, but if that was the case, I'm sure we'd hear about it.

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
I do not see more than maybe three or four seats outside Winnipeg, at the absolute most, that the Tories can steal from the NDP (I'm thinking of Carlton Trail, Gimli, and maybe Brandon East and Dauphin-Roblin).

Even that, I think from the Conservative's perspective that would be the best case scenario, not the most likely.

ghoris

I too am baffled by recent polls. My sense of the polling is that the Tories are probably running up huge margins in seats they already hold in Southern Manitoba (which does not help them) and perhaps recovering to traditional levels of support in Winnipeg (such that they are likely to regain southern suburban seats). But I think people do not fully appreciate the mountain the Tories have to climb to win (not unlike the Tories in the UK last year). I do not see more than maybe three or four seats outside Winnipeg, at the absolute most, that the Tories can steal from the NDP (I'm thinking of Dawson Trail, Gimli, and maybe Brandon East and Dauphin-Roblin). That means they have to win seven or eight seats in Winnipeg, minimum, to form government. On the current numbers, they likely win back Kirkfield Park, Southdale and St. Norbert, and have a good shot at regaining Riel, Seine River and Fort Richmond (although all of these were won by pretty healthy margins in 2007). That still leaves another two or three seats they need to win and I have a hard time seeing where they come from. The next likely targets are St. James, Rossmere, Assiniboia and Radisson, but all of these seats were won by margins of 20 to 30 percent - such a significant swing to the Tories seems unlikely, especially if they are level-pegging with the NDP in Winnipeg but not yet beating the NDP.

ghoris

I definitely agree winning all four of these seats would have to be a best case scenario for them, since none of them were *that* close in 2007. 

I'm not sure what the result in Dawson Trail would have been on the old boundaries, but it's basically the western end of the current La Verendrye seat (basically exurban bedroom communities like Lorette, St. Anne and Ile Des Chenes). Ron Lemieux won the current La Verendrye seat by a surprisingly healthy margin, and I would have to think that now that all of the more rural parts have been hived off into the 'new' La Verendrye, this can only assist Lemieux.

Gimli loses West. St. Paul to the new St. Paul seat, so again, I'm not sure what impact that has on the 2007 results, but in any event Peter Bjornson won by 2,500 votes (roughly 25 percentage points) so it's not like he'll be that easy to dislodge.  Similarly, Drew Caldwell won by 1,100 votes (also roughly 25 percentage points).  The closest call was in Dauphin-Roblin, where Stan Struthers won by just under 1,000 votes (approximately 12 percentage points).

What's also interesting is the Tories scored similar or smaller margins in three seats outside the Perimeter: Brandon West - 56 votes, Portage - 400 votes, and Minnedosa - 1,000 votes. The incumbents in the first two are not running for re-election, and Minnedosa disappears under the redistribution.

ghoris

Any word on who the Tories have nominated to replace Rick?

I saw that Gerald Hawranik not only decided not to run again, but actually resigned his seat the other day. Strange that all these guys - some of whom are not that long in the tooth - like Borotsik, Faurschou, Hawranik and Dyck, are leaving when the Tories are (supposedly, if you believe Scott MacKay) on the cusp of power.  Fortunately, the PC caucus remains a delightful assortment of Filmon-era has-beens (Mitchelson, Derkach, Driedger), Murray-era never-will-bes (Goertzen, Schuler, Stefanson) and of course, a solid block of cranky old white rural guys (Briese, Cullen, Maguire, Eichler, Graydon, Pedersen)

Edited to add: I see Leanne Rowat has been nominated for Riding Mountain, which is the successor to Len Derkach's Russell seat.  Did she defeat him for the nomination or did he decide to retire?  I've seen news reports that said he was running for the nomination but the Freep's 'Under the Dome' blog says he is retiring.

ghoris

Aristotleded24 wrote:

genstrike wrote:
Here's hoping McGifford retires or gets shitcanned soon.

I agree.

Well, looks like you guys got your wish: Southdale MLA Erin Selby is the new Advanced Education Minister.

This is clearly an effort by Selinger to shore up the NDP's middle-class, suburban appeal. There will no doubt be some consternation over the fact that Western Manitoba (ie, Drew Caldwell) has - again - been left out of cabinet. 

Selinger is following the same path Doer did in replacing ministers who are not running again in the run-up to the election (which makes sense). Until last month's announcement, I assumed McGifford was running again in Fort Garry-Riverview and that's why Kerri Irvin-Ross was nominated for the more marginal Fort Richmond seat.  Anyone know who's running in Fort Garry-Riverview? Should be a reasonably safe seat.

[Edited to add: found the answer. Former party prez, Fort Rouge nomination candidate and Winnipeg South Centre federal candidate Jamie Allum is running in Fort Garry-Riverview. The Tory candidate, Ian Rabb, looks like he's no slouch, but the demographics of this area seem to have shifted significantly away from the Tories in recent years.]

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
I see Leanne Rowat has been nominated for Riding Mountain, which is the successor to Len Derkach's Russell seat.  Did she defeat him for the nomination or did he decide to retire?  I've seen news reports that said he was running for the nomination but the Freep's 'Under the Dome' blog says he is retiring.

He was going to run initially but then he stepped aside for Leanne.

ghoris

Probably a positive thing for the party. Leanne Rowat strikes me as one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal caucus. Plus she's one of only two rural female MLAs in the Tory caucus (and one of only five female Tory MLAs in total) so it might not have looked good if she got squeezed out in favour of yet another cranky old white guy. Speaking of, (well, OK, cranky *young* white guys), I gather Mike Waddell is running for the Tories in Brandon East again - could make things interesting.

As I understand it, Marilyn Brick, Diane McGifford, Gerard Jennissen and George Hickes are not offering again for the NDP, while Rick Borotsik, Len Derkach, Gerald Hawranik, David Faurschou and Peter George Dyck are the Tories who are bowing out.  Kevin Chief is expected to replace Hickes in Point Douglas and Jamie Allum is running to replace McGifford in Fort Garry-Riverview, but any word on who's been nominated in St. Norbert or Flin Flon?  I'm also curious to know where Flor Marcelino is running. It's quite maddening that the NDP does not have its candidates listed on the website but the Tories do.

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
Mike Waddell is running for the Tories in Brandon East again

Correct.

And my mistake about the other NDP MLAs not running, but they still have less people retiring than the PCs.

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
The Tories have also nominated...John Zasitko in Interlake.

[url=http://www.interlakespectator.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=2983307]What's done can be undone[/url]

ghoris

From the linked article:

Quote:
n a letter from Don Plett, Chairman of the Candidate Selection Committee, Zasitko was told that the Committee made its decision "on the basis of its review of identified shortcomings with regard to your participation in the party's election preparedness program and campaign planning efforts."

I assume this means he was fired as a candidate because the party felt he was being lazy.  I've never heard of a candidate being relieved because of "identified shortcomings" in participating in election preparedness and campaign planning.  I wonder if there's some other skeleton that the party preferred not to have come dancing out of the closet in the glare of the campaign.

The Interlake Tories are somewhat notorious for allegations of questionable campaign tactics in the past (see: Campbell-Dewar, Heather and Barrett, Cubby).  For some reason the Tories always seem to see this as a swing seat, but it's been NDP since its creation and they held it even in the 1988 disaster.  The Tories came close a couple of times - in 1988, when Bill Uruski squeaked in by about 250 votes, and in 1999, when Tom Nevakshonoff only won by about 550 votes. Since then, he's held the seat by increasingly comfortable margins - winning by 2,600 votes last time.  I suppose this could become a target for the Tories if there's an NDP meltdown but right now I don't see it.

Aristotleded24

Wasn't Interlake one of the key constituencies involved in the vote splitting affair that brought down Gary Filmon's government?

genstrike

ghoris wrote:
The next likely targets are St. James, Rossmere, Assiniboia and Radisson, but all of these seats were won by margins of 20 to 30 percent - such a significant swing to the Tories seems unlikely, especially if they are level-pegging with the NDP in Winnipeg but not yet beating the NDP.

I don't know why anyone even considers Radisson to be a possibility for the Tories.  The NDP hasn't even been close to losing it since 1988, and even then, they lost it to the Liberals instead.  With that kind of record, it belongs in the same category as Transcona.

ghoris

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Wasn't Interlake one of the key constituencies involved in the vote splitting affair that brought down Gary Filmon's government?

Yep. (Again, see: Barrett, Cubby.)  This was the constituency where eventual 'whistle-blower' Daryl Sutherland ran as a "Native Voice" candidate in 1995 (with financial backing from the Tories in an effort to split the NDP vote).

ghoris

The demographics of Radisson have changed a lot over the last 25 years. Lots of new suburban McMansion developments in Eaglemere, Harbour View South and Kildonan Meadows.  Also the boundaries shifted quite a bit in the 1998 redistribution, losing South Transcona and everything west of Molson Street/Panet Road (very solid NDP areas) and taking in about half of Windsor Park, which was distinctly less hospitable to the NDP. In 2003, Bidhu Jha won by less than 1,000 votes (halving Marianne Cerilli's 2,000-vote margin from 1999) - one of the narrower margins for a victorious NDP candidate in Winnipeg. Daryl Reid's margins in Transcona have been consistently strong since 1990, so there's no question in my mind that Transcona is a much safer seat (1988 being an historic aberration).

Bidhu did improve his margin in Radisson to about 1,800 votes in 2007, so while it's not low-hanging fruit for Tories at this point, it could become a possible target if the campaign really starts to go their way (or the NDP tanks). Of St. James, Rossmere, Assiniboia and Radisson, Radisson was the closest race for the last two elections.

For 2011, the boundaries are shifting south again, picking up the rest of Windsor Park and adding a fairly upscale new subdivision south of Fermor, while losing Harbour View South and about half of Lakeside Meadows to Rossmere. I don't have a poll-by-poll breakdown, but my sense is that the redistribution is more likely to slightly favour the Tories, on balance.

In other news, looks like Burrows MLA Doug Martindale is retiring after 20 years in the leg: "NDP MLA trades politics for the pulpit."

ghoris

Rumours are now flying thick and fast that maverick Transcona councillor Russ Wyatt is going to seek the provincial Conservative nomination in Transcona and run against Daryl Reid. Has anyone heard anything? In one of Dan Lett's columns he suggested that Russ was turned down for a provincial NDP nomination and that put his nose out of joint.

I know Russ was increasingly coming persona non grata within the party, especially with his recent endorsement of the federal Tory candidate who beat Maloway, but I didn't imagine that he would swing all the way over to the provincial Tories. This is a guy who not too long ago chaired Steve Ashton's leadership campaign.

Russ is very personally popular but I wonder if even that personal popularity will convince people in Transcona to vote for Hughie McFadyen and his ragtag band of right-wing ideologues. Then again, they did all just vote for Harpo and his well-organized band of right-wing ideologues, so who knows? Either way, Daryl Reid is in for a tough fight.

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
Rumours are now flying thick and fast that maverick Transcona councillor Russ Wyatt is going to seek the provincial Conservative nomination in Transcona and run against Daryl Reid. Has anyone heard anything? In one of Dan Lett's columns he suggested that Russ was turned down for a provincial NDP nomination and that put his nose out of joint.

I know Russ was increasingly coming persona non grata within the party, especially with his recent endorsement of the federal Tory candidate who beat Maloway, but I didn't imagine that he would swing all the way over to the provincial Tories. This is a guy who not too long ago chaired Steve Ashton's leadership campaign.

Russ is very personally popular but I wonder if even that personal popularity will convince people in Transcona to vote for Hughie McFadyen and his ragtag band of right-wing ideologues. Then again, they did all just vote for Harpo and his well-organized band of right-wing ideologues, so who knows? Either way, Daryl Reid is in for a tough fight.

Let's hope Wyatt succeeds, then the left flank of city council can try and win one more seat in the coming by-election.

ghoris

Well, ideally he'd resign his seat to force a council by-election, and then lose in the provincial election. I'm sure he's got some preferred successor waiting in the wings, though.

In other nomination news, St. James MLA Bonnie Korzienowski announced the other day that she is packing it in, bringing the total number of NDP retirees to six by my count: Brick, Hickes, McGifford, Martindale, Jennissen and Korzienowski. The NDP retirees now exceed the number of confirmed Tory retirees (five): Dyck, Borotsik, Derkach, Hawranik and Faurschou. No matter who wins, at least 11/57 MLAs elected in October will be new faces.

Aristotleded24

Still, I do see a stagnation that has set in the Manitoba NDP. Even if the NDP manages to hold on this Fall, they will almost certainly be defeated in 2015, as I can see them dropping below the Tories in the polls throughout this entire period and being unable to accomplish much. Kind of like what happened to the NDP in Saskatchewan in its most recent term.

Aristotleded24

It may be that allowing Hugh McFadyen to hang himself is the best opportunity, and the Manitoba NDP is in need of renewal. Hopefully there will be an actual renewal, instead of what's happening in Saskatchewan where the NDP chose a leader too closely tied to the previous regime and is looking at possibly losing seats this time around.

It's funny you mention Sterling Lyon. With the current economic situation and how voting patterns are changing. If the NDP plays their cards right, the 2015 election may produce a result that causes the PCs to look back on 1981 with fond memories. This dynamic may also come into play federally and could be key in winning large amounts of seats and playing a role in beating Harper.

Unfortunately, the PCs did not learn from the rebuke Manitoba voters gave them in 1981.

nicky

From my perspective watching events from Toronto Sellinger has been quite impressive in making hard decisions concerning the flooding. Leaders often grow in a crisis, at least in public perception.

How is his performance regarded in Manitoba?

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