Nominated Candidates - Manitoba Provincial Election 2011

OK, admittedly it's a bit early, but I've noticed that the opposition parties are starting to nominate candidates for next year's provincial election.

As I posted in another thread, the Liberals have nominated Roldan Sevillano Jr. as their candidate in the new Tyndall Park constituency, which overlaps the existing Inkster constituency (held by Liberal Kevin Lamoureux, who is departing to run federally for Judy WL's old seat) and the existing Wellington constituency (held by Culture Minister Flor Marcelino).  Former PC MLA Marcel Laurendeau is vying to recapture his old St. Norbert seat, only this time under the Liberal banner.

The Tories have started nominating candidates as well. First out of the blocks in February was Kelly de Groot in Kirkfield Park. She lost in a close race to Grant Nordman (another Tory) in St. Charles in the 2006 municipal election. She ran against Jim Rondeau in Assiniboia in 2007 and finished a fairly distant second. She's already got her website up and has been doorknocking in the constituency. I expect she'll have a good shot at retaking this traditional Tory seat.

The Tories have also nominated Scott Gillingham in St. James, Karen Velthuys in St. Norbert, Martin Morantz in River Heights, Rochelle Squires in Riel, Judy Eastman in Southdale, Jeff Wharton in Gimli and John Zasitko in Interlake. Except for Velthuys, who is a school trustee in Pembina Trails, I've never heard of any of these folks before. Morantz looks decent on paper (and apparently there were over 500 people at the nomination meeting), while Squires and Eastman appear to have lots of backroom party experience and not much else.

PC incumbents Blain Pederson, Cliff Graydon, Ralph Eichler, Ron Schuler, Kelvin Goertzen, Heather Stefanson, Cliff Cullen, Myrna Driedger and Bonnie Mitchelson have been nominated in Midland, Emerson, Lakeside, St. Paul, Steinbach, Tuxedo, Spruce Woods, Charleswood and River East, respectively.

As for Team Orange, well there's nothing on the party website to indicate that nomination meetings have even taken place. It will be interesting to see where incumbents like Flor Marcelino, Diane McGifford, Kerri Irvin-Ross, Marilyn Brick and Ron Lemieux will run given that their constituencies are all being radically altered (or eliminated) by redistribution.

If anyone else has any news or nomination gossip, please share.

I agree.

That surprises me about Borotsik. Many of them are fairly salivating, sure that they see victory next fall. Dyck is stepping down too.

Because she showed absolutely no leadership whatsoever on the post-secondary education file when she was overseeing it. Specfically, she failed to speak up when administration at the 3 universities was bashing the tuition freeze, and she was not able to crack down on them raising "ancilliary" fees to get around the freeze.

There probably has to be some co-ordination of nomination meetings so that things don't get confused (i.e. holding a nomination in Thompson and Virden the same evening and expecting Steve Ashton to be a guest speaker at both), but I haven't heard anything along that lines. What exactly did you hear?

Usually there is a freeze on nominations until a certain time before the election

I'd also add to that a google search in this day and age.

I see from the events calendar on the party website that the new Logan constituency will have its nomination meeting on Monday, January 10, 2011.  Any word on who the candidates are?  This is a new seat that essentially covers downtown and takes in chunks of the existing Fort Rouge, Minto, Wellington and Point Douglas seats. Will Flor Marcelino run here or in the new Tyndall Park seat? I guess we'll find out as of Monday.

Other upcoming nomination contests are in Spruce Woods (January 23) and Radisson (February 5). 

It looks like Assiniboia, Selkirk, Rossmere, Fort Richmond, Minto, Kildonan, Gimli, Southdale and Riel have had their meetings already. I assume the incumbents got nominated in all but Fort Richmond, another new seat. Did Marilyn Brick decide to run here or opt to stay in the new, more Tory-friendly St. Norbert seat?

Irvin-Ross is running in Fort Richmond, eh? Would have thought Fort Garry-Riverview was a more natural fit, but then that would have meant Diane McGifford would be squeezed out. I'm sure the brass had a hand in co-ordinating this game of musical chairs to make sure everyone has a seat when the music stops. This smacks a bit of Becky Barrett moving over to Inkster in 1999 - a convenient way to avoid a nasty nomination fight and get a higher-profile candidate into a swing seat - but it also means that some 'past-their-best-before-date' MLAs like McGifford get a free ride in a safe seat.

A year ago I would have thought Brandon West was a real pickup opportunity (and even more so now with Borotsik's announcement), but having been back in Winnipeg over the holidays and talking about the current political state of affairs with family, old friends, former colleagues and fellow veterans of the 1990s political wars (from across the political spectrum, currently politically active and not), there seems to be a real anti-NDP sentiment out there among the general public and a lot of NDP supporters seem pretty convinced they are likely to lose in October. (Yeah, yeah, I said the same thing about Doer in 2006 but the zeitgeist of the place on this most recent visit suggested the NDP was on the outs with the public.)  If that's the case, it will be a struggle to hold onto existing seats. On the other hand, Brandon did just elect an NDP mayor so who knows?

In any event, Brandon West will be by far the best chance for an NDP pickup this cycle (possibly the only one).  I also fear for Drew Caldwell in Brandon East unless NDP numbers outside the Perimeter start improving fast.  The Tories keep getting closer and closer with each election as the residual Len Evans coattails start to dissipate.  You would know better than I, but I get the sense that Brandonites feel slighted by the lack of cabinet representation and that there is a perception that Caldwell has not been a particularly effective MLA. If the Tories get a good candidate in there (not a shnook like Waddell) Drew could be in the fight of his life.

It does seem to me that the ground is shifting in Brandon, as the election of Decter-Hirst shows. She took all but a few west end polls. Looking at the 2 constituencies:

If the NDP doesn't pick up Brandon West, it will be because the party had an attack of Perimiteritis and decided not to invest any resources there. Borotsik is the best the Tories could do, becuase he attracted voters who wouldn't normally vote Conservative. The only person I could think of for the Tories who could match Borotsik would be Leeann Rowatt (her seat will be eliminated with the re-distribution) but unless she's willing to move, she would be vulnerable to the charge of being a parachute.

Brandon East should be safe. Yes, Errol Black lost his council seat, but by 2 votes, and local labour council president Jan Chaboyer picked up a council spot in that part of Brandon. Combined, this tells me that the NDP brand in Brandon is gaining in strength. As for Mike Waddell? I wouldn't write him off as a schnook. He is very well-respected in Brandon through his work through Youth For Christ. I actually suspect that the rising PC total for Brandon East has much, if not everything, to do with Waddell, and once again, I can't think off hand of anybody who could run in Brandon East. If people vote for their preferred local candidate, Waddell wins. If people vote for their preferred party, Caldwell wins.

I second the motion.

She showed an apalling lack of leadership in her capacity as Minister for Advanced Education, effectively going against NDP policy on the tuition freeze. Ancillary fees rose under her watch, and there was no effort whatsoever to clamp down on the university administrators.

I think most students in Nova Scotia would appreciate the almost $2000 difference in tuition with Manitoba being one of the lowest in the country. 

Well, looks like you guys got your wish: Southdale MLA Erin Selby is the new Advanced Education Minister.

This is clearly an effort by Selinger to shore up the NDP's middle-class, suburban appeal. There will no doubt be some consternation over the fact that Western Manitoba (ie, Drew Caldwell) has - again - been left out of cabinet. 

Selinger is following the same path Doer did in replacing ministers who are not running again in the run-up to the election (which makes sense). Until last month's announcement, I assumed McGifford was running again in Fort Garry-Riverview and that's why Kerri Irvin-Ross was nominated for the more marginal Fort Richmond seat.  Anyone know who's running in Fort Garry-Riverview? Should be a reasonably safe seat.

[Edited to add: found the answer. Former party prez, Fort Rouge nomination candidate and Winnipeg South Centre federal candidate Jamie Allum is running in Fort Garry-Riverview. The Tory candidate, Ian Rabb, looks like he's no slouch, but the demographics of this area seem to have shifted significantly away from the Tories in recent years.]

Anyone who has followed Manitoba politics as of late wouldn't consider that odd.

In Murray's case, I think it's more a desire to attach himself to a winning team as opposed to advocating for one viewpoint or another.

Any word on who the Tories have nominated to replace Rick?

I saw that Gerald Hawranik not only decided not to run again, but actually resigned his seat the other day. Strange that all these guys - some of whom are not that long in the tooth - like Borotsik, Faurschou, Hawranik and Dyck, are leaving when the Tories are (supposedly, if you believe Scott MacKay) on the cusp of power.  Fortunately, the PC caucus remains a delightful assortment of Filmon-era has-beens (Mitchelson, Derkach, Driedger), Murray-era never-will-bes (Goertzen, Schuler, Stefanson) and of course, a solid block of cranky old white rural guys (Briese, Cullen, Maguire, Eichler, Graydon, Pedersen)

Edited to add: I see Leanne Rowat has been nominated for Riding Mountain, which is the successor to Len Derkach's Russell seat.  Did she defeat him for the nomination or did he decide to retire?  I've seen news reports that said he was running for the nomination but the Freep's 'Under the Dome' blog says he is retiring.

I too am baffled by recent polls. My sense of the polling is that the Tories are probably running up huge margins in seats they already hold in Southern Manitoba (which does not help them) and perhaps recovering to traditional levels of support in Winnipeg (such that they are likely to regain southern suburban seats). But I think people do not fully appreciate the mountain the Tories have to climb to win (not unlike the Tories in the UK last year). I do not see more than maybe three or four seats outside Winnipeg, at the absolute most, that the Tories can steal from the NDP (I'm thinking of Dawson Trail, Gimli, and maybe Brandon East and Dauphin-Roblin). That means they have to win seven or eight seats in Winnipeg, minimum, to form government. On the current numbers, they likely win back Kirkfield Park, Southdale and St. Norbert, and have a good shot at regaining Riel, Seine River and Fort Richmond (although all of these were won by pretty healthy margins in 2007). That still leaves another two or three seats they need to win and I have a hard time seeing where they come from. The next likely targets are St. James, Rossmere, Assiniboia and Radisson, but all of these seats were won by margins of 20 to 30 percent - such a significant swing to the Tories seems unlikely, especially if they are level-pegging with the NDP in Winnipeg but not yet beating the NDP.

I definitely agree winning all four of these seats would have to be a best case scenario for them, since none of them were *that* close in 2007. 

I'm not sure what the result in Dawson Trail would have been on the old boundaries, but it's basically the western end of the current La Verendrye seat (basically exurban bedroom communities like Lorette, St. Anne and Ile Des Chenes). Ron Lemieux won the current La Verendrye seat by a surprisingly healthy margin, and I would have to think that now that all of the more rural parts have been hived off into the 'new' La Verendrye, this can only assist Lemieux.

Gimli loses West. St. Paul to the new St. Paul seat, so again, I'm not sure what impact that has on the 2007 results, but in any event Peter Bjornson won by 2,500 votes (roughly 25 percentage points) so it's not like he'll be that easy to dislodge.  Similarly, Drew Caldwell won by 1,100 votes (also roughly 25 percentage points).  The closest call was in Dauphin-Roblin, where Stan Struthers won by just under 1,000 votes (approximately 12 percentage points).

What's also interesting is the Tories scored similar or smaller margins in three seats outside the Perimeter: Brandon West - 56 votes, Portage - 400 votes, and Minnedosa - 1,000 votes. The incumbents in the first two are not running for re-election, and Minnedosa disappears under the redistribution.

Probably a positive thing for the party. Leanne Rowat strikes me as one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal caucus. Plus she's one of only two rural female MLAs in the Tory caucus (and one of only five female Tory MLAs in total) so it might not have looked good if she got squeezed out in favour of yet another cranky old white guy. Speaking of, (well, OK, cranky *young* white guys), I gather Mike Waddell is running for the Tories in Brandon East again - could make things interesting.

As I understand it, Marilyn Brick, Diane McGifford, Gerard Jennissen and George Hickes are not offering again for the NDP, while Rick Borotsik, Len Derkach, Gerald Hawranik, David Faurschou and Peter George Dyck are the Tories who are bowing out.  Kevin Chief is expected to replace Hickes in Point Douglas and Jamie Allum is running to replace McGifford in Fort Garry-Riverview, but any word on who's been nominated in St. Norbert or Flin Flon?  I'm also curious to know where Flor Marcelino is running. It's quite maddening that the NDP does not have its candidates listed on the website but the Tories do.

What's done can be undone

Wasn't Interlake one of the key constituencies involved in the vote splitting affair that brought down Gary Filmon's government?

The demographics of Radisson have changed a lot over the last 25 years. Lots of new suburban McMansion developments in Eaglemere, Harbour View South and Kildonan Meadows.  Also the boundaries shifted quite a bit in the 1998 redistribution, losing South Transcona and everything west of Molson Street/Panet Road (very solid NDP areas) and taking in about half of Windsor Park, which was distinctly less hospitable to the NDP. In 2003, Bidhu Jha won by less than 1,000 votes (halving Marianne Cerilli's 2,000-vote margin from 1999) - one of the narrower margins for a victorious NDP candidate in Winnipeg. Daryl Reid's margins in Transcona have been consistently strong since 1990, so there's no question in my mind that Transcona is a much safer seat (1988 being an historic aberration).

Bidhu did improve his margin in Radisson to about 1,800 votes in 2007, so while it's not low-hanging fruit for Tories at this point, it could become a possible target if the campaign really starts to go their way (or the NDP tanks). Of St. James, Rossmere, Assiniboia and Radisson, Radisson was the closest race for the last two elections.

For 2011, the boundaries are shifting south again, picking up the rest of Windsor Park and adding a fairly upscale new subdivision south of Fermor, while losing Harbour View South and about half of Lakeside Meadows to Rossmere. I don't have a poll-by-poll breakdown, but my sense is that the redistribution is more likely to slightly favour the Tories, on balance.

In other news, looks like Burrows MLA Doug Martindale is retiring after 20 years in the leg: "NDP MLA trades politics for the pulpit."

Rumours are now flying thick and fast that maverick Transcona councillor Russ Wyatt is going to seek the provincial Conservative nomination in Transcona and run against Daryl Reid. Has anyone heard anything? In one of Dan Lett's columns he suggested that Russ was turned down for a provincial NDP nomination and that put his nose out of joint.

I know Russ was increasingly coming persona non grata within the party, especially with his recent endorsement of the federal Tory candidate who beat Maloway, but I didn't imagine that he would swing all the way over to the provincial Tories. This is a guy who not too long ago chaired Steve Ashton's leadership campaign.

Russ is very personally popular but I wonder if even that personal popularity will convince people in Transcona to vote for Hughie McFadyen and his ragtag band of right-wing ideologues. Then again, they did all just vote for Harpo and his well-organized band of right-wing ideologues, so who knows? Either way, Daryl Reid is in for a tough fight.

Well, ideally he'd resign his seat to force a council by-election, and then lose in the provincial election. I'm sure he's got some preferred successor waiting in the wings, though.

In other nomination news, St. James MLA Bonnie Korzienowski announced the other day that she is packing it in, bringing the total number of NDP retirees to six by my count: Brick, Hickes, McGifford, Martindale, Jennissen and Korzienowski. The NDP retirees now exceed the number of confirmed Tory retirees (five): Dyck, Borotsik, Derkach, Hawranik and Faurschou. No matter who wins, at least 11/57 MLAs elected in October will be new faces.

I agree. Sooner or later the Tories are going to win, if for no other reason than eventually voters will get tired of the NDP and decide 'It's time for a change'. Frankly I'd rather have the NDP lose narrowly and be in a position to boot the Tories out at the very next opportunity than limp along for a fourth term only to get shellacked, 1988-style, in 2015 and spend another decade-plus in the wilderness. I don't know that the next four years are going to be a great time to be in government, and I'd rather have the Tories take the fall for any continued economic weakness or unpopular spending cuts, etc that have to be made. Normally I would concede that a change of government is not always a bad thing, but I have no confidence that Hugh and the Gang That Can't Shoot Straight will give Manitoba something even remotely resembling competent government.

I could very easily see the Tories winning very narrowly in the fall (say 29 or 30 seats) and then, due to the party's horrific lack of bench strength and Hugh's shortcomings as a leader, spend the next four years doing nothing but fucking up and lurching from crisis to crisis. Meanwhile the NDP will have a chance to have a change of leadership and renew itself. I can definitely foresee a repeat of the Lyon experience, where a very unpopular Tory government gets resoundingly turfed after just one term by a resurgent NDP.

From my perspective watching events from Toronto Sellinger has been quite impressive in making hard decisions concerning the flooding. Leaders often grow in a crisis, at least in public perception.

How is his performance regarded in Manitoba?

Shhh genstrike, what are you doing talking like that? Don't you know that the NDP is all good and that everyone should work to keep the NDP in power forever and then good things will always come? Don't you know that you can only have influence when you are actually at the seat of power?

Seriously, you hit the nail on the head. Unfortunately, there seems to be a structural hubris that has set in with the party, and while I would like to see the NDP come back in 2015, I wonder if it is to the point where the only thing that will shake the party of said hubris is some time in the political wilderness.

Let's be fair. Pawley was railroaded in many respects.

I don't disagree. My point was more about public perceptions (aided and abetted by the media). And there's no question that the government collapsed at about the worst possible time. I'm not under any illusions that the government would have been re-elected had it survived until 1990 or 1991, but I think with time the furore over Autopac would have subsided and the NDP would have held more of its core vote.

Good point. Manitoba has a tradition of not throwing governments out until the second term, but Sterling Lyon only governed from 1977 to 1981, followed by Pawley. That little tid-bit is never mentioned in "Pawley-ran-Manitoba-into-the-ground" revisionist history.

From out here in the east coast (Nova Scotia), it looks to me like the chances of the NDP retaining power in the next Manitoba provincial election lies in where the 'soft-Liberal' vote goes.

If it goes back to the Liberals, the Conservatives might squeek in with a narrow majority.

If it goes Conservative, the NDP will be lucky to hold onto 15 seats.

If it stays with the NDP because the Conservative leader has no traction with that block of voters, then another NDP majority will happen.

If it splits Liberal/NDP, then an NDP minority becomes a possibility

A Liberal/Conservative split or NDP/Conservative split should still mean an NDP majority.

Or am I way too far away to know better?

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/08/16/manitoba-saskatchewan-election-r...

Are these two brothers?