Quebec 2018 Election Results and Analysis

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Pondering
Quebec 2018 Election Results and Analysis

Just posting numbers and saving my commentary to make it easier to quote just the numbers. My second post will be QS riding by riding results although they all aren't posted on Wikipedia yet. 

Vote share 2018 compared to 2014

  • CAQ………..37.48………..+14.43
  • PLQ…………24.74………...-16.78
  • PQ………….17.09…………-8.29
  • QS………….16.06…………+8.43
  • Others……..4.63………..+3.48

*Green had .55 in 2014.

I understand that PR can lead to people voting differently but assuming we had the same results

125 seats result rounded

  • CAQ………..37.48………..47 seats instead of 74................ - 27
  • PLQ…………24.74………... 31 seats instead of 32............. -1
  • PQ………….17.09…………  21 seats instead of 9...............+ 12
  • QS………….16.06………… 20 seats instead of 10.............+10 doubled!
  • Others……..4.63………..  6 seats instead of 0...................+6

63 seats for a majority.

Pondering

QS ridings (will add to this as detailed results are posted)

  • Gouin since 1977 it has been PQ, Ind, or QS
  • QS ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+7.75
  • CAQ ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-1.33
  • Liberal,,,,,,,,,,,,,-6.23
  • PQ ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-5.28
  • Green,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+3.49 new
  • Nul,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-.29
  • Pot,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.47 new

 

  • Jean-Lesage- taken from the Liberals
  • QS ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+23.8
  • CAQ ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+8.65
  • Liberal,,,,,,,,,,,, -19.41
  • PQ ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-13.10

 

  • Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques – traditional PQ territory
  • QS ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +18.68
  • CAQ ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +2.43
  • Liberal,,,,,,,,,,,,, -9.12
  • PQ ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, -13.62
  • Green,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+1.43
  • Pot,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+.29 new
  • Conservative,,,,,,+.52 new

 

  • Sherbrooke traditionally flips between Liberals and PQ
  • QS ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +21.35
  • CAQ ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +6.70
  • Liberal,,,,,,,,,,,,, -11.77
  • PQ ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, -16.39

 

  • Taschereau traditionally flips between Liberals and PQ
  • QS ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+27.23
  • CAQ ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+2.58
  • Liberal,,,,,,,,,,,,,-12.79
  • PQ ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, -13.97
  • Green,,,,,,,,,,,,, +1.49 New
  • Nul,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-.40
  • NDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+.54 New
  • Citoyens au pouvoir,,,,,,,,,,,,+.42 New
  • Équipe autonomiste,,,,,,,,,,,,+.0.04 New

Pondering

Optimistically, because it's a lot of work, this post will be ridings in which either the NDP or QS showed in. 

Let discussion begin. 

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

There was no surprise in St-Henri Ste-Anne. Liberals ran away with it. But what I was surprised about seeeing how gentrified this riding has become with a large number of anglo professionals, QS finishing second. Kind of distant but second all the same.

I don't think there were many surprises on the Island. I was disappointed with Chateauguay. I know a lot of people from there, middle aged, parents of milennials even a few grandparents. If you look at CAQ (and any Conservative) support, it''s mostly people my age. No wonder I haven't spoke to any of them in 25 or 30 years.

They say you become more conservative with age.  I think that's an urban legend. I get more liberal (I'm sure most of us here know the difference with being liberal and supporting the Liberals) even when I contradict myself and prefer the Libs both provincially and federally far above any conservative government. I hate conservatives and I can't stand right wingers. I probably have more support to the LPC simply because they legalized something I have been beating the drum to for decades. I'm happy people will no longer be oppressed with a criminal record for cannabis possession thus no longer destroying people's lives. And I am very encouraged to hear the Liberals may pardon all minor cannabis offenders.

2019 is either going to go Liberal or Conservative. I'd much rather the Liberals. But if that asshole Maxime Bernier's party splits the conservative vote maybe the Liberals will be battling with the NDP. I don't want to think about it yet.

Sorry for the thread drift.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

alan smithee wrote:

There was no surprise in St-Henri Ste-Anne. Liberals ran away with it. But what I was surprised about seeeing how gentrified this riding has become with a large number of anglo professionals, QS finishing second. Kind of distant but second all the same.

I don't think there were many surprises on the Island. I was disappointed with Chateauguay. I know a lot of people from there, middle aged, parents of milennials even a few grandparents. If you look at CAQ (and any Conservative) support, it''s mostly people my age. No wonder I haven't spoke to any of them in 25 or 30 years.

They say you become more conservative with age.  I think that's an urban legend. I get more liberal (I'm sure most of us here know the difference with being liberal and supporting the Liberals) even when I contradict myself and prefer the Libs both provincially and federally far above any conservative government. I hate conservatives and I can't stand right wingers. I probably have more support to the LPC simply because they legalized something I have been beating the drum to for decades. I'm happy people will no longer be oppressed with a criminal record for cannabis possession thus no longer destroying people's lives. And I am very encouraged to hear the Liberals may pardon all minor cannabis offenders.

2019 is either going to go Liberal or Conservative. I'd much rather the Liberals. But if that asshole Maxime Bernier's party splits the conservative vote maybe the Liberals will be battling with the NDP. I don't want to think about it yet.

Sorry for the thread drift.

It's alright, Alan.  The results are deeply disturbing.  "The Regions" essentially voted to return the Union Nationale to power.  Can somebody post a list of the ridings where CAQ had the narrowest margins of victory?  It would be interesting to think of which CAQ ridings will be most vulnerable to by-election losses.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I don't think there's anything which could have saved the PLQ from defeat.  Couillard knew that he had alienated a lot of long-standing supporters through years of relentless austerity-at this stage, I doubt that much of any of the social benefits created by either the "Quiet Revolution" PLQ government of 1961-66 or the first PQ government(after 1980, the PQ also became a party of the right on social spending, economics and workers' rights) remains, or remains in anything but badly-butchered remnant form.

QS really, really REALLY needs to look at going to neutrality on sovereigntism.  From last night's results, it looks as though maybe 30% of Quebecers, if that, actually see sovereignty as a meaningful thing to pursue.  They absorbed ON, but what good is the ON contingent in QS to them, really?  Are there truly THAT many people on the Quebec francophone left who put bitterness towards anglophones above anything else?  

If NPD-Q is to go anywhere-it received .57% of the vote overall-it truly needs to get away from being perceived as "center-left" rather than left.  The result there clearly shows there's no support base for a Romanow-Tony Blair-Bob Rae type of party.  It needs to be federalist yet clearly anti-austerity, pro-labour, and outspokenly pro-immigrant in its orientation, and that will require a leadership change.  

Les Vertes...did they even run in this election?  Did they come close to a respectable showing anywhere?  They seem to have lived the wisdom of Kermit the Frog last night.

Pondering

As people, setting aside political views, QS has the best two politicians in Quebec by far. Manon Masse and Gabriel Nadeau Dubois have enormous support because their authenticity is unmistakeable. For QS honesty is the best policy. Just tell the truth. They and the party continue to believe Quebec's best future lies in being a separate country but it is beyond obvious that a referendum in the foreseeable future would fail and that people don't want to talk about it. The party still wants to serve and form a government that is dedicated to the well-being of citizens in areas that are under provincial control.

People crave honest politicians that will not take being elected as a mandate to substitute their will for that of the people. Valerie Plante is sitting in her chair because she convinced people she would listen to them and do what they want her to do. Coderre lost because he refused to listen to the people. 

lagatta4

Actually, the two QS candidates of ON origin elected in Québec are very progressive indeed, and not at all of the identitaire current among sovereignists; they admire progressive and inclusive sovereigntist movements as in Scotland and Catalonia. They are also very appealing people in the same way Manon and Gabriel are. Catherine can play a major role in our work on defending and improving the lot of artists, cultural workers and other precarious workers.  Sol speaks four languages...

Pondering

I was going to put all the electoral district info in the second post but it is too time consuming. Under FPTP and even under PR each electoral district is a separate election.

This was Amir Kadir’s seat. Ghazal is a relative unknown so  I would say she won because this is a QS seat. Even so she added to the QS vote share by 11.62 which is a lot when you are already in the lead and your predecessor was popular. Liberals and the PQ are the only two parties that lost vote share. The NDPQ picked up 2.68 which I guess came from the Liberals. They are certainly no threat to QS in this particular riding.

Pondering
Pondering

It appears that PR is much more popular in Quebec than it is in BC. It has 64% support here. 

Check out these numbers. 

Could it be because Quebec has been polarized on the independence issue so people think PR will bring more choices?

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Are federalists dancing on an empty coffin?

quote:

In English Canada, Quebec independence is far too often explained as a proxy war between the PQ and the Liberals. You vote Liberal if you’re a federalist. You vote PQ if you’re a sovereignist, and never the two shall meet. On Monday night, both parties had crushing defeats. The PQ’s was anticipated. The extent of the Liberal defeat was not: from majority government with 68 seats to 32. Leader Philippe Couillard resigned.

Does that mean that Quebecers are also rejecting federalism?

No, because the strict binary employed by far too many English pundits inside and outside Quebec has always decontextualized sovereignty to make it an obvious, straight-forward debate: sovereignty, bad versus federalism, good. This obscures what’s really happening. The demise of the traditional parties is not a proxy for where the sovereignty or federalist movements are today.

Left-right polarization

What’s emerging in Quebec is a debate that’s polarizing around left versus right, where federalism is used by the CAQ to assure Quebecers that the economy will remain strong, that their milk will remain federally managed and that business will stay happy. Québec solidaire advocates sovereignty to empower the province to reject Canadian national energy projects and to build a new, more just society.

That’s what makes Quebec solidaire so exciting: it’s a party that believes that the Canadian federation, in its current form, causes more harm than good and that breaking from this (or, giving Quebecers the chance to decide if they would like to break from this) is a democratic struggle for justice. For progressive activists who agree with independence, the discussion is never about independence alone. It’s always tied to a progressive social project that, in the interim, we can fight to achieve with the levers that exist today.

quote:

Sovereignty in itself can be left wing or right wing and it’s right-wing sovereignty that most Canadians see from outside. It’s far easier to to dismiss the sovereignty movement as either racist (as expressed by groups like neo-Nazi Atalante) or dead (as expressed by the PQ) than contend with the progressive aspirations of the movement. It’s important to be clear about who is saying what, especially when the federalist Liberals and the CAQ have been the most recent purveyors of division in Quebec politics. Systemic racism isn’t the domain of sovereigntists alone.

‘A permanent campaign for social justice’

Sol Zanetti, former leader of Option Nationale and newly-elected Québec solidaire MNA from Quebec City, summed up progressive sovereignty during his victory speech on Monday night: “We will use every platform to fight back prejudice and to push further the limits of what’s possible in our collective spirit ... We need to be in a permanent campaign for a country, for social justice, for feminism and the environment, for democracy and inclusion.”

Like Quebecers, average Canadians never voted on the Constitution. With politicians like Ontario Premier Doug Ford thumbing their noses at convention, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau purchasing a pipeline or betraying the dairy industry through trade deals, and with the pressing need to end Canada’s neocolonial control over Indigenous nations, the positives of our federation are hard to justify against the clear negative impacts.

Imagining what’s possible through a new federal arrangement shouldn’t be a Quebec thing alone; it should be part of all progressive debates across Canada. If we believe in democracy, there is no better democratic project than allowing people to write their own future, and ditch those parts of power that have never served average people.

The future is local: local energy production, local food, local merchandise, local transportation. Importantly, local doesn’t mean closed. It means ensuring that people's political will can directly influence political decision making, like finding new ways to enter into international treaties, or forcing public participation in government decisions that have far-reaching consequences. Or rejecting trade deals that make it harder for Canada to create a national system of pharmacare, like the new NAFTA seems to do. How can we have fulsome debates without talking about how a radical break with the status quo could offer us a solution?

lagatta4

Very interesting article, as is this one by Ethan Cox: https://ricochet.media/en/2368/quebec-solidaire-are-now-quebecs-third-party

Indeed, redefining sovereignty to include Indigenous nations as well as the issue of local production and control does not mean "partition". Except for the far North, Indigenous nation partition would be impossible, and in Ungava, it could well undo the progress the Inuit and Cree peoples have made - the situation remains deplorable, but the Cree on the Québec side of the bay are far better off than on the Northern Ontario side. And this is because of the protracted fight those peoples (and the smaller Naskapi people) waged against the Québec government's high-handed approach to hydroelectric development. Despite many shortcomings, it was a qualitative leap in terms of Indigenous action and organisation.

Pondering

Information in post from this link: http://angusreid.org/quebec-election-2018-analysis/

The majority of QS supporters are voting QS despite not because of their dedication to forming an independent country. 

For the Parti Quebecois, sovereignty remains an important issue. More than four-in-five PQ supporters (84%) said they support the pursuit of independence. While that party’s leader Jean-François Lisée stated that the PQ would not seek a referendum on independence in its first term in government, Quebec solidaire – which is also a sovereigntist party – made no such promise. That said, only 47 per cent of QS supporters supported the idea.

Of the voters that went QS only 47% support seeking independence.

I am, or was, part of the majority of QS voters who do not want to pursue independence yet been criticized on this forum for not understanding Quebec or for harping on the independence issue when discussing the need for the NDPQ in Quebec. I wouldn't need the NDPQ if QS would drop their focus on independence. As long as QS insists on going against the majority of their voters and against the majority of Quebecers we need a party in Quebec that listens to Quebecers. 

Independence is not a new topic in Quebec or one that hasn't been fully explored or debated like say, free public transport or higher personal exemptions. This is a subject that has been excruciatingly picked apart and argued in countless editorials for half a century. That is why most Quebecers on both sides of the issue just don't want to talk about it anymore. It isn't that people are just disinterested. People are actively repelled by the topic. Clear the room, send people running away from the water cooler don't want to talk about it.

The moment I read QS say that we need independence to protect the environment because Trudeau bought the pipeline I cringed, almost literally. My first thought was "here we go again" with an eye roll. I represent the majority of Quebecers in this by far. It isn't a matter of which side of the fence we are on, pro, against, left, right, we just don't want to talk about it anymore. This is a topic that divided families. The 1995 referendum loss was so close it left many feeling bitter on both sides. It didn't energize the movement it did the opposite. Support is down to 35% and shrinking. It's aging. The majority of youth do not support independence. 

It amazes me that we have parties representing business interests and parties representing left centre and right centre and centre but no parties representing the 99%. In my opinion that is why populism is on the rise. 

The NDPQ won't solve much because I doubt they will listen either but if they can get decent reps and become better known they could pick up a lot of moderate left votes especially under PR if we get it. 

voice of the damned

Like Quebecers, average Canadians never voted on the Constitution. With politicians like Ontario Premier Doug Ford thumbing their noses at convention, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau purchasing a pipeline or betraying the dairy industry through trade deals, and with the pressing need to end Canada’s neocolonial control over Indigenous nations, the positives of our federation are hard to justify against the clear negative impacts.

Which "convention" is Doug Ford thumbing his nose at? If the writer means his threatened invocation of Notwithstanding, that's a little odd, since Section 33 is actually what gives the elected legislatures a final overrule against the Charter, and he has just finished complaining that no one voted for the Constitution.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

You've been accused of harping on the independence issue simply because you seem to have decided that you won't stop bringing it up until QS formally renounces it.  

What a lot of us are saying is...It's going to be four years until the next Quebec election...what's the point of continuing to bring up the referendum issue when it's not pressing, and when it is entirely possible that there will be a discussion on that within QS and the matter will take care of itself?  We all get it that you oppose sovereignty...fine, you are within your rights to do so...but could you tell us why you have to keep belaboring it when it's fallen off the agenda anyway?  Is there a reason you can't simply accept that it has been made a moot point in practical terms and that it simply serves no purpose to keep bringing it up and bringing it up and bringing it up and never, ever letting it go?

You're fighting a battle that is, for all practical purposes, won.  Why can't you move on?

voice of the damned

Pondering wrote:

The moment I read QS say that we need independence to protect the environment because Trudeau bought the pipeline I cringed, almost literally.

Yes. The two openly pro-pipelines parties, the Liberals and Conservatives, between the two of them won 52% of the Quebec vote in 2015, and 52/78 seats. Surely, if Quebeckers were so outraged about pipelines that they'd vote for independence to escape them, they would at least be sending anti-pipeline politicians to Ottawa in the meanwhile.

(Not that I doubt that opposition to pipelines is stronger in Quebec than in, say, Alberta or Saskatchewan. Just that I don't think it makes a huge difference in how people vote, much less which country they want to be a part of.)

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
You've been accused of harping on the independence issue simply because you seem to have decided that you won't stop bringing it up until QS formally renounces it.  

Again, what if they just stop campaigning on it?  Is that a "renunciation"??

And why, if it's so dead in the water, do they campaign on it at all?  That's like a mayoral candidate campaigning with a promise to bring the 2016 Summer Olympics to Toronto. 

If it can't happen, it makes zero sense to campaign on it, yes? 

voice of the damned

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
You've been accused of harping on the independence issue simply because you seem to have decided that you won't stop bringing it up until QS formally renounces it.  

Again, what if they just stop campaigning on it?  Is that a "renunciation"??

And why, if it's so dead in the water, do they campaign on it at all?  That's like a mayoral candidate campaigning with a promise to bring the 2016 Summer Olympics to Toronto. 

If it can't happen, it makes zero sense to campaign on it, yes? 

Well, maybe it's like when the religious-right was supposedly taking over the Republican Party in the US. There was an unofficial line among GOP moderates telling everyone not to panic, you can still vote GOP without having to worry about losing reproductive rights or sexual equality, because the party is really controlled by neo-liberal yuppies who only care about lower taxes, and the religious stuff is just a ruse to get the fundies out to the voting booth.

And of course, I'm sure when Donald Trump chose Kavanaugh as his latest SCOTUS justice, he said "Okay, gotta make sure this guy understands he works for the yuppies, not the fundies."

Pondering

Ken Burch wrote:

You've been accused of harping on the independence issue simply because you seem to have decided that you won't stop bringing it up until QS formally renounces it.  

What a lot of us are saying is...It's going to be four years until the next Quebec election...what's the point of continuing to bring up the referendum issue when it's not pressing, and when it is entirely possible that there will be a discussion on that within QS and the matter will take care of itself?  We all get it that you oppose sovereignty...fine, you are within your rights to do so...but could you tell us why you have to keep belaboring it when it's fallen off the agenda anyway?  Is there a reason you can't simply accept that it has been made a moot point in practical terms and that it simply serves no purpose to keep bringing it up and bringing it up and bringing it up and never, ever letting it go?

You're fighting a battle that is, for all practical purposes, won.  Why can't you move on?

You still misrepresent my position and avoid my arguments. I haven't won anything. 

Both "left" wing parties in Quebec are devoted to a dead issue so Quebec is doomed to right leaning governments yet you don't think it worthy of discussion because the election is over or is it you don't think it impacted the election. I don't know because all I can ever remember you saying or implying that it's a non-issue in Quebec which isn't true. 

This thread is about the election results and analysis. That is why I named it that. I specifically sought out statistics on voter opinions and which way they voted so that we would have facts to base discussion on rather than just opinion. 

Over 50% of QS voters do not want a referendum. That is new information and it supports my argument that the left has to get over its obsession with promoting independence. 

Notice polling companies are still asking about peoples views on separation. The reason this election was not about independence is because the only parties in competition pledged no-ref not because people no longer care one way or another. Do you dispute that statement?

The election results being discussed in this thread were heavily impacted by the referendum issue. You don't acknowledge or counter any of my arguments. You just declare the topic dead. If you don't want to discuss the parameters that influenced the Quebec election that is over then I don't understand why you are in a thread named election results and analysis. The results part implies that it is over therefore you could argue all discussion is moot. 

How long have people been harping on the same criticisms of Singh? Or on the topic of an NDP membership revolt which never gets to the planning stages. How about the coming economic apocalypse that never arrives? Repetitive arguments abound. 

Everyone gets to choose what they want to discuss and who they want to respond to.