With the rise of the CAQ in recent polls, it's possible that PQ majority might get more fragile ... We'll see.
The best possible scenario, from my point of view, would be a minority PQ government with a couple of QS MPs holding the balance of power...
Actually, the recent CROP poll showed the PQ at 34%, with the other 2 parties in the mid-20s may seal the deal.
CAQ is basically poaching on Liberal demographics -- middle class, right of centre, anti-PQ -- and in the many three-way races across the province on Sept 4, the CAQ's new votes will largely be taken from the Liberals and help put the PQ over the top.
Hence the PQ could have a lopsided majority with only a modest , 30-something share of the popular vote. Let's hope not, but the math seems clear in a first-past-the-post electoral system with 3 major parties.
Cf. the British election results of 2010:
Tories 36 per cent (306 seats),
Labour 29 per cent (258 seats),
Liberals 23 per cent (57 seats).
Notice the steeply diminishing returns for the 3rd party.