Quebec polls and parties 2014

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Debater

Is the PQ running on empty?

Recent poll shows the party in third place and it’s easy to see why. The Parti Québécois seems to have plenty of dreams for itself, but little for Quebec.

By Chantal Hébert

Fri., May 19, 2017

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/05/19/is-the-pq-running-on-empt...

josh
josh
Debater

Quebec poll: Fed by Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois's charm campaign, QS nipping at PQ's heels

http://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/quebec-poll-fed-by-gabriel-nadeau...

robbie_dee

I am wondering if this thread title should be updated since it is now the middle of 2017? In any case here is a seat projection based on averaging the latest Leger and Mainstreet polls. Liberal minority with QS achingly close to holding the balance of power.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2017/06/nouveaux-sondages-mainstreet-et-leg...

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..from #505 post

quote:

Bordering on cocky in a recent interview with the Presse Canadienne, Nadeau-Dubois said he is thinking big. He said QS is ready to take power in Quebec and he can see himself premier.

“We are now in the stage of marching toward (forming) government,” Nadeau-Dubois said, predicting his party will be nibbling at the voters of all the other parties.

“From now on, QS will be telling voters we are ready to form the next government. I intend to disturb (the other parties). I didn’t get into politics to sit quietly in my corner.”

Debater

The latest Léger poll shows PQ support is lower than when Pierre Karl Péladeau quit:

Un sondage confirme le déclin du Parti québécois

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201706/...

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/502025/un-nouveau-sondage-confi...

josh
Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
He said QS is ready to take power in Quebec and he can see himself premier.

Isn't he a "co-spokesperson"?

And according to Wikipedia:

Quote:
The party's secretary-general, currently Pierre-Paul St-Onge, is the de jure party leader recognized by the Chief Electoral Officer of Quebec.

NorthReport

Finally a progressive party is showing serious signs of life in Quebec. How wonderful this is.

Too bad Ontario can't seem to do the same thing 

NorthReport

Now all QS needs to do is find out some way to reach out to the non-francophone progressive voters in Quebec

http://globalnews.ca/news/3613078/quebec-liberal-party-losing-voter-supp...

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I wouldn't celebrate so fast. QS splits the PQ and QS vote. Which means the next election will be a race between PLQ and CAQ. If people are fed up with PLQ,they will most likely turn to the party highest in the race and that would be CAQ.

A CAQ government would be a disaster,much worse than the PLQ.

So great,QS gets 20% support but CAQ walks away with the election win.

This is something I don't celebrate at all. Québec will go hard right before it goes left. With an election looming with CAQ the clear second place party,I fear Québec will put in power Frank Legault. A fucking asshole. And a man who has been inspired by Trump.

So great..QS is at 19% and only a couple points behind the PQ...That's wonderful...But the likely outcome of an election done today,would not be a victory for progressives. It will be a nightmare.

 

JKR

alan smithee wrote:

I wouldn't celebrate so fast. QS splits the PQ and QS vote. Which means the next election will be a race between PLQ and CAQ. If people are fed up with PLQ,they will most likely turn to the party highest in the race and that would be CAQ.

A CAQ government would be a disaster,much worse than the PLQ.

So great,QS gets 20% support but CAQ walks away with the election win.

This is something I don't celebrate at all. Québec will go hard right before it goes left. With an election looming with CAQ the clear second place party,I fear Québec will put in power Frank Legault. A fucking asshole. And a man who has been inspired by Trump.

So great..QS is at 19% and only a couple points behind the PQ...That's wonderful...But the likely outcome of an election done today,would not be a victory for progressives. It will be a nightmare.

 

Thank you FPTP.

Pogo

That assumes that the PQ votes wouldn't collaps during an election as people become strategic.

 

JKR

I don't think people will vote strategically for a party that's in 3rd or 4th place.

Pogo

JKR wrote:

I don't think people will vote strategically for a party that's in 3rd or 4th place.

3rd or 4th place provincially is differnent than the riding  by riding battles. If you are in a progressive leaning riding, you will likely consider electability in your voting decision and will be looking for the best progressive option.

Moreover 3&4 is where they are now (and hovering around 20% is not bad for 4th place). During the campaign the general rule is that the status quo will change, one party will go up and other will go down.  If the party going up is QS then it will create a momentum.

 

JKR

Pogo wrote:

JKR wrote:

I don't think people will vote strategically for a party that's in 3rd or 4th place.

3rd or 4th place provincially is differnent than the riding  by riding battles. If you are in a progressive leaning riding, you will likely consider electability in your voting decision and will be looking for the best progressive option.

Moreover 3&4 is where they are now (and hovering around 20% is not bad for 4th place). During the campaign the general rule is that the status quo will change, one party will go up and other will go down.  If the party going up is QS then it will create a momentum.

 

I think it would be better if there was electoral reform so there would be no obstacle to people voting for their 1st choice because of FPTP.  Does the QS support proportional representation?

pietro_bcc

NorthReport wrote:

Now all QS needs to do is find out some way to reach out to the non-francophone progressive voters in Quebec

http://globalnews.ca/news/3613078/quebec-liberal-party-losing-voter-supp...

The QS will never get significant support in the non-francophone population for the same reason that the PQ never did, they're separatists. That is the number one issue in my community that supercedes all others. I as an anglophone have voted QS, but I'll finally have a left wing federalist choice in the next election and I will choose it, the NPD-Q.

QS supporters tell me its a wasted vote, but so was a vote for QS in 2007. The QS would be irrelevant if not for people initially "wasting" their vote in QS' early days.

lagatta4

What happened to my comment?

pietro_bcc

Latest Mainstreet poll: http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/pq-gains-august-race-tightens/

LPQ: 31% (-2)

CAQ: 28% (=)

PQ: 24% (+3)

QS: 17% (-2)

NorthReport

And what is the NPDQ polling at?

pietro_bcc

NorthReport wrote:

And what is the NPDQ polling at?

0% I assume, its never registered in a poll so its lumped into "other".

NorthReport

The NDP has enough internal trouble without creating more for itself.

Better to join QS and work with them.

Even if Quebec left Canada (which is not gonna happen), it would not be moving away, as it is still going to be in the same geographical place, and life would go on.

It is no longer socially acceptable for minorities to rule majorities.

 

NorthReport

Post it again - it's needed here.

lagatta4 wrote:

What happened to my comment?

NorthReport

Opinion: On racism, PQ action plan beats Liberal commission's talk

Parti Québécois Leader Jean-François Lisée questions the government over the Bombardier bonus increase to it's management, during question period, Wednesday, April 5, 2017 at the legislature in Quebec City.JENNIFER DROUIN

Premier Philippe Couillard’s government recently announced that it would hold a “Commission sur la discrimination systémique et le racisme.” This commission is misnamed. “Systemic” is an American buzzword; it is more accurate to use the term “institutional” to describe racism within social and political institutions, such as employment or policing. Easily confused with “systematic,” “systemic” gives the false impression that Quebec society is plagued with racism, like Alabama even after the abolition of Jim Crow laws.

I spent six years in Alabama witnessing institutional racism and becoming attuned to white privilege. Institutional racism in Quebec is not “systemic” in the American sense.

This commission’s “primary objective” is to “propose concrete and lasting solutions” to eradicate discrimination and racism. The Parti Québécois has already proposed 20 concrete solutions. However, the governing Liberals refuse to implement them, making their commission appear to be merely an attempt to play wedge politics in the lead-up to the October 2018 election. 

The 20 PQ proposals are divided along four axes: better recognize foreign qualifications; end structural obstacles in hiring; fight strongly against racism and discrimination; and take steps toward inclusion.

In the first axis, the PQ proposes one-stop-shopping for recognizing foreign diplomas and experience as well as extending the Qualification Montréal program across Quebec and establishing a common legal framework for internships through universities and professional orders. The PQ also wants immigrants to be better informed about requirements before they arrive and for there to be a reboot of negotiations toward reciprocal agreements with Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria that Couillard’s government quashed three years ago.

http://montrealgazette.com/opinion/opinion-on-racism-pq-action-plan-beat...

pietro_bcc

NorthReport wrote:

The NDP has enough internal trouble without creating more for itself.

Better to join QS and work with them.

Even if Quebec left Canada (which is not gonna happen), it would not be moving away, as it is still going to be in the same geographical place, and life would go on.

It is no longer socially acceptable for minorities to rule majorities.

I am an anglophone and while I have voted for QS in the past because I am against the Liberals' right wing politics, but now that I'm given a left wing federalist option I'm taking it. I was also more comfortable voting QS in the past because they had a low chance of winning (making the threat of a referendum less significant), today they have a good chance of winning or at the very least securing a coalition government with the PQ.

Also I agree that minorities should not rule majorities, which is why we need more federalist options. Why should federalists only have 1 choice and separatists 2 choices (and the CAQ who can't seem to decide whether to have a referendum in 5 years, 10 years or never) when over 60% of Quebecers are federalist? Makes no sense.

I am well aware that the NPDQ will not be forming government in 2018, the goal of the next election for us, as I see it is to hopefully make a splash in a few ridings getting results that get us exposure even if they're not necessarily wins (even 1 seat would be shocking given that we're starting at zero, it could likely only happen with a star candidate) and get as many votes as possible province wide (in order to increase the amount we'll get in public financing.)

Its also very interesting because I hear from some of my anglo friends that we're going to split the vote with the Liberals and let the PQ win and I hear from some of my friends on the left that the NPDQ will steal votes from QS and let the Liberals win. Partizans from both the Liberals and the QS are so hostile to our existance, if the NPDQ were so irrelevant they wouldn't care on either side. The fact that so many people feel threatened encourages me that upturning the current political order and opening up a space for a left/right debate, rather than having every election be a referendum on a referendum isn't a lost cause.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

pietro_bcc wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

The NDP has enough internal trouble without creating more for itself.

Better to join QS and work with them.

Even if Quebec left Canada (which is not gonna happen), it would not be moving away, as it is still going to be in the same geographical place, and life would go on.

It is no longer socially acceptable for minorities to rule majorities.

I am an anglophone and while I have voted for QS in the past because I am against the Liberals' right wing politics, but now that I'm given a left wing federalist option I'm taking it. I was also more comfortable voting QS in the past because they had a low chance of winning (making the threat of a referendum less significant), today they have a good chance of winning or at the very least securing a coalition government with the PQ.

Also I agree that minorities should not rule majorities, which is why we need more federalist options. Why should federalists only have 1 choice and separatists 2 choices (and the CAQ who can't seem to decide whether to have a referendum in 5 years, 10 years or never) when over 60% of Quebecers are federalist? Makes no sense.

I am well aware that the NPDQ will not be forming government in 2018, the goal of the next election for us, as I see it is to hopefully make a splash in a few ridings getting results that get us exposure even if they're not necessarily wins (even 1 seat would be shocking given that we're starting at zero, it could likely only happen with a star candidate) and get as many votes as possible province wide (in order to increase the amount we'll get in public financing.)

Its also very interesting because I hear from some of my anglo friends that we're going to split the vote with the Liberals and let the PQ win and I hear from some of my friends on the left that the NPDQ will steal votes from QS and let the Liberals win. Partizans from both the Liberals and the QS are so hostile to our existance, if the NPDQ were so irrelevant they wouldn't care on either side. The fact that so many people feel threatened encourages me that upturning the current political order and opening up a space for a left/right debate, rather than having every election be a referendum on a referendum isn't a lost cause.

I hope you'd at least agree that there's no good reason for NPD-Q candidates to stand in any ridings currently held by QS, or any QS would have a real chance of gaining from the PLQ, PQ, or CAQ.  Staying out of that type of riding would at least make sure an NPD-Q(if they actually go through with the plan to stand at the next election)did no damage.

pietro_bcc

Unless the NPDQ and QS were to form some alliance where each would stand down in chosen ridings, no (and at this point I don't know why QS would consider doing so given their size in comparison to the NPDQ, perhaps in future elections.)

I don't know why its assumed that the NPDQ should stand down anywhere unilaterally, they owe nothing to QS and are trying to form their own distinct base of left wing federalist support. They shouldn't ask for permission or apologize to QS, ultimately if they can't hold onto their supporters and lose them to some new party that was formed a few years ago that's their problem.

This is the same kind of argument the PQ tried to pull, where they accused QS of letting the Liberals win because they split the separatist vote, it was wrong then and its wrong now.

lagatta4

È assurdo, pietro. The PQ is no longer really a progressive party, and the NDP is considerably to the right of Québec solidaire.

Non capisco il tuo odio del Québec...

Of course you can vote however the fuck you want, but trying destroy Québec solidaire makes you objectively a splitter, a wrecker and a bloody reactionary. Go worship your goddam Queen...

Note that I have nothing at all personal against Her Majesty, just against people who pretend to be leftists and try to scuttle one of the few progressive parties north of the Rio Grande.

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