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Sondage

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NorthReport

11 au 15 mars 2015

Sondage CROP

Libs - 29%, bas 8%

PQ - 27%, haut 1%

CAQ - 26%, haut 4%

QS - 16%, haut 5%

 

 

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201503/...

swallow

Franophones PQ 32 CAQ 30 PLQ 18

Non-francophones PLQ 74

Nice to see QS at highest level in a long time - maybe ever. 

I'm not sure polls matter much before the Appointed Annointing of PKP, though. 

This is my most acronym-heavy post ever. 

Unionist

The polls mean nothing, but I always admire those whose optimism ascribes meaning to them (including our old friend Ethan Cox):

[url=https://ricochet.media/en/356/austerity-kills-liberals-tumble-quebec-sol... kills: Liberals tumble, Quebec Solidaire gain in new poll[/url]

Quote:
What’s perhaps most interesting is that with PQ support almost unchanged, the five point increase in support for QS appears to represent voters stolen from the Liberals. Conventional wisdom suggests that the PQ and QS broadly share one universe of supporters, the Liberals and CAQ another, with some middle ground. For a significant number of supporters of the federalist, right-wing Liberals to swing to the sovereigntist, left-wing QS would require a trigger.

That trigger is austerity. Long-discussed but little understood until recently, the details, and consequences, of Liberal cuts have begun to come into more focus for the population over the past months, partially thanks to a significant mobilization of civil society to oppose them.

God I hope he's right.

 

NorthReport

Liberals sliding in latest public opinion poll

The biggest winner was Quebec Solidaire which gained 5 points sitting at 16 percent, that's an all time high for the party since the 2014 election.

http://www.cjad.com/cjad-news/2015/03/20/update-liberals-sliding-in-late...

lagatta

It would be great if QS could steal votes from the Liberals. But wouldn't those mostly be progressive anglo and some allo votes? Would that be enough to raise it by 5%?

I convinced some people including the editor of Rover Arts to vote QS: it is important culturally, but certainly didn't make a difference in the riding she lived in (Mercier).

Obviously these changes are fleeting, but it does do my heart good in this endless fucking winter. In 2012 I was demonstrating on this date, and it was so hot I had to take both my denim jacket and my light merino pullover off - I was still too hot with a long-sleeved tee shirt. Out for a walk in the sun anyway...

NorthReport

Things may get even better for for QS down the line especially if PKP is chosen leader of the PQ.

PQ blind spot keeps Pierre Karl Péladeau the party favourite: Hébert

With every passing week Pierre Karl Péladeau is becoming the favourite candidate of the other parties in Quebec’s national assembly.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/03/20/pq-blind-spot-keeps-pierre...

Debater

Chantal Hébert just posted this new LEGER poll this morning.  Looks like Peladeau becoming PQ leader has given his party a bump and they now have a lead over the Couilliard Liberals.

--

Péladeau replace le PQ

19 mai 2015

Tout nouveau, tout beau. L’élection de Pierre Karl Péladeau comme chef du Parti québécois (PQ) vendredi a eu comme effet immédiat de doper les appuis à la formation souverainiste, révèle un sondage Léger mené cette fin de semaine pour Le Devoir et Le Journal de Montréal.

Le coup de sonde permet de mesurer le chemin parcouru par la formation souverainiste depuis un an. En mai 2014, Léger avait situé le PQ dans un creux historique : 19 % dans les intentions de vote, troisième parti chez les francophones (23 %), quatrième choix des électeurs de moins de 45 ans…

Or, aux premiers jours de l’ère Péladeau, le PQ semble avoir renversé la vapeur et retrouvé ses repères. Il est ce matin premier dans les intentions de vote, premier chez les francophones, premier également auprès des électeurs de 18 à 54 ans. Dans la foulée, l’appui à la souveraineté est passé de 32 % à 42 %.

Les résultats montrent que le PQ aurait obtenu 34 % si une élection avait eu lieu samedi ou dimanche, alors que les confettis de la soirée de victoire de M. Péladeau étaient à peine ramassés. C’est une hausse de six points par rapport au dernier sondage Léger, réalisé le 11 avril. Les libéraux suivent de près avec 32 %, en baisse de cinq points depuis avril (le taux d’insatisfaction est passé de 61 % à 65 %). La CAQ pointe à 20 %, et Québec solidaire à 10 %.

---

More:

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/440396/sondage-leger-peladeau-r...

---

Full poll numbers:

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage_polqc_mai2015.pdf

Stockholm

This is more of a reflection on how unpopular Couillard is right now than any "PKP-mania" and if the best the PQ can do on the morning after PKP becomes leader si to lead the Liberals 34-32% - colour me unimpressed.

Debater

It's true that the PQ numbers aren't huge by any means, but what may be more significant is that LEGER shows a 10-point increase on support for sovereignty, from 32% to 42%.

That may not last long-term, but it could change a few calculations in the short-term.

NorthReport

CROP - le 16 juin '15

 

PLQ / 34%

PQ / 34%

CAQ / 17%, Down 3%, and down 13% since September

QS / 13%

 

francophones

PQ / 41%

PLQ / 25%

CAQ  / 19%

QS / 13%

 

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201506/19/01-48796...

NorthReport

CROP - le 17 aout, 2015

PLQ - 33%

PQ - 29%

CAQ - 23%

QS - 13%

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201508/...

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

This is the reason that I will NEVER support a PQ government run by Péladeau.

http://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/peladeau-suggests-sharing-federal...

swallow

You only have one reason, Alan? I can think of 101! 

 

josh

CROP:  PLQ 35 PQ 27 CAQ 19 QS 16.

lagatta

I'm glad to see we are up, but these things can change quickly. It would be lovely to outflank the CAQA.

josh

CROP federal Quebec:  LPC 51 NDP 21 CPC 12 BQ 11.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I'm ecstatic to learn that the CPC is down to 12% and that QS is almost even with the CAQA. Great news. I hope it gets better.

swallow

Francophones PQ 33 PLQ 24 CAQ 22 QS 19 

Non-franco PLQ 75 

Montreal Metro PLQ 39 PQ 25 QS 16 CAQ 14 

Outside Montreal & capital region PLQ 31 PQ 31 CAQ 21 QS 16

[url=https://sondage.crop.ca/survey/start/cawi/Rapport%20politique%20-%20Jan%... CROP results in french

This seems promising... 

NorthReport

QS!  Smile

swallow

alan smithee wrote:
CAQA. 

I've often wonder: What could have possed them to name their party CAQ? Didn't they know what it would sound like? Have none of them ever changed a diaper? 

lagatta

I guess it is the French equivalent of Canadian Reform Aliliance Party. But it stuck. Baby caca does that.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

What's maddening is how the media (anglo especially) cover the CAQA. You hear a lot about them and never hear anything about QS. Do they read the polls? Or are they their new right wing Knights in Armour?

I guess the PLQ aren't right wing enough for the Gazette or CTV. Maniacs.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

alan smithee wrote:

What's maddening is how the media (anglo especially) cover the CAQA. You hear a lot about them and never hear anything about QS. Do they read the polls? Or are they their new right wing Knights in Armour?

I guess the PLQ aren't right wing enough for the Gazette or CTV. Maniacs.

It is similar to the coverage that Sanders gets in relaton to Trump. It is also worth noting that in Alberta prior to the NDP win it was the Wild Rose Party that was the darling of the media and Notely was under reported and laughed at as a serious contender. Who knows the voters might just suprise everyone and QS will win a majority of seats by being the top party in four way races.

swallow

Tooclosetocall simulateur gives PLQ 60 PQ 48 CAQ 12 QS 5 (all in Montreal) on those numbers. 

lagatta

I don't see how we could have fallen so quickly. Sounds suspicious.

Right now we are listening to, reading about the Québec cabinet reshuffle... Of course it is just a matter of putting new faces on the Couillard austerity agenda (there is another thread on that under the Québec rubric).

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

We had a by-election in my riding a couple months ago. Unfortunately,the PLQ candidate won but on the bright side (if there really is one) was that the QS candidate finished ahead of CAQ and just under the PQ with over 20% of the vote. This is a positive. QS is gaining momentum (very slowly). After 4 years of Couillard,with an opposition that does not represent any change,QS could make significant gains next election. I'm just sitting back watching CAQA and Parti Québecor slowly implode.

I hope I'm not being too optimistic. I'm usually a pessimist.

lagatta

The crap involving party leaders who use tax havens does seem to be hitting the fan; certainly spotlighted on Enquête. These are the people calling for austerity and cuts in much needed government services while they are not paying their part in income and other taxes.

swallow

Hey, if Alan is optimistic, I feel good about things! And 5 seats wouldn't be bad at all.... 

The TCTC simulator doesn't start giving QS more than a handful of seats until the support goes up to 25% or so. It's flawed in keeping numbers constant across Quebec based on previous elections - so the number spile up in Gouin etc, while a QS win outside Montreal is almost impossible under the simulator on under 25% of the vote. But if QS numbers are actually at 19% in the regions, as CROP says, then wins become at least conceivable in places like Sherbrooke (where [url=http://www.quebecsolidaire.net/equipe/helene-pigot/]Hélène Pigot[/url] is a great candidate). 

swallow

Not about a poll, but this being the cloest ting to a QS thread with recent activity: 

Quote:
Last week Québec Solidaire celebrated 10 years of existence. Given the ambitions of the party when it was founded and the evolution of Quebec’s political landscape, what evaluation can be made of the party's progress? Does the party really find itself “at a crossroads” as some would have us believe?

... In sum, Québec Solidaire has brought a pedagogy of progressivism to Quebec. But pedagogy alone isn’t enough....

For one thing, despite its inclusive positions, the party has trouble getting support from immigrant communities, first and foremost because it hasn’t developed a network. The solidarist program should have an advantage with the part of the population who feel the effects of poverty and oppression acutely, even though this part of the electorate is considered “captive” of the Liberal Party. Certainly the Liberal government’s austerity isn’t going to help those in need.

(Not the most important quotes, but maybe the most relevant to rabble readership

[url=https://ricochet.media/en/934/10th-anniversary-of-quebec-solidaire-movin... anniversary of Québec Solidaire: Moving beyond marginality[/url]

lagatta

Sherbrooke has a very good local association; an old friend of mine who was one of the pioneer leaders of gay liberation in Québec is actve in it. I don't know Pigeot, but she sounds like a great candidate. I disagree with the writer about "miserabilism" - a party that doesn't defend poor people - many of whom DO work, by the way - is not a valid left party. Many people live very precarious lives nowadays, even educated people and even some people with skilled trades.

 

swallow

CROP:

PLQ 33% (+1 from last CROP poll)

PQ 26% (-4)

CAQ 25% (-1)

QS 14% (+3)

[url=http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201604/... CROP-La Presse: les libéraux en tête, malgré les mauvaises nouvelles[/url]

Not that this means much, but for fun it can be plugged into the tooclosetocall simulateur to get a predicted result of PLQ 56, PQ 37, CAQ 27, QS 5 (gaining Laurier-Dorion from the Liberals and Hochelaga-Maisonneuve from the PQ). 

Debater
Debater

le 18 août 2016

CROP

PLQ - 35%

PQ - 25%

CAQ - 25%

QS - 12%

-

Francophones:

PQ - 30%

CAQ - 30%

PLQ - 24%

-

Best Premier:

François Legault - 23%

Philippe Couillard - 20%

Françoise David - 10%

Sylvain Gaudreault - 8%

-

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201608/...

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

That's some real depressing news.

Debater

Intentions de vote au provincial au Québec

Léger

Le 3 septembre 2016

PLQ - 34%

PQ - 29%

CAQ - 23%

QS - 10%

-

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/pol_qccan_sond_030916.pdf

swallow
Debater

le 22 septembre 2016

CROP

PLQ - 37% [+2]

PQ - 27% [+2]

CAQ - 26% [+1]

QS - 9% [-3]

---

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201609/...

swallow

CROP:

Quebec vote intentions PLQ 36% (-1) CAQ 26% (+4) PQ 24% (-6) QS 11% (+2)

Federal PLC 60% (-1) NPD 16% (+1) BQ 10% (-4) Con 10% (+3)

[url=http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201611/... Presse[/url]

 

bekayne

swallow wrote:

CROP:

Quebec vote intentions PLQ 36% (-1) CAQ 26% (+4) PQ 24% (-6) QS 11% (+2)

[url=http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201611/... Presse[/url]

 

Is that the new leader's "honeymoon"?

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

CAQ makes me appreciate the PLQ. That's how bad they are.

swallow

bekayne wrote:

Is that the new leader's "honeymoon"?

It seems so. On the other hand, it's just a poll, and we know those are as much entertainment as they are science.

I know I couldn't vote for the PQ under the new leader's dog-whistle attacks on minorities, any more than I could have voted for them when they were led by a union-bashing plutocrat. 

lagatta

Lisée is back to refusing "religious signs" for daycare educators. He's making a hell of a big mistake there. Québec parents profit greatly from the extremely high credentials of daycare workers from Muslim countries (in particular, those of the Maghreb) who can't get jobs in their own professions because of bias towards women who wear the hijab. Many of these educators have masters' degrees. They all speak educated French and both literary and dialectal Arabic (or Berber dialect as well as standard, literary Arabic). Many also speak English and/or other languages (especially Spanish (Morocco) and Italian (Tunisia).

He has this weird psychobabble idea that because the educator is someone in authority who wears the veil, that the children will learn disrespect for their own, unveiled mothers. What the...?

By the way, I'm very much a secularist, but I don't think he's being rational.

NorthReport
NorthReport