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josh

Two polls published in the last week suggest that the margin between the CAQ and the Liberals has narrowed significantly. The surveys, conducted by Léger (Apr. 6-8) and Mainstreet Research (Apr. 7-9), put the CAQ at between 30 and 34 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 29 to 30 per cent, the PQ at 16 to 21 per cent and Québec Solidaire at nine to 12 per cent.

Léger gives the CAQ a five-point edge. Mainstreet puts the CAQ and the Liberals in a tie.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/grenier-quebec-polls-tighten-1.4621648

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I think a lot of Quebecers are waking up that CAQ may not be the smartest option. If the PQ would cool off on the sovereignty crap,I think their numbers would be significantly higher and it would be more of a race betwen the Liberals and the PQ.

Whoever the PQ strategist is,their doing a pathetic job. Support for sovereignty has fizzled out to almost extinction next to where it was in 1976.

They should find some real issues to cling to and prove they are the best option in leading Québec for the next minimum 4 years.

pietro_bcc

These polls are pretty interesting, my biggest take away surprise from each was.

1. Leger: The Liberals are leading among the 18-34 year old demographic by a lot and that is in fact their best demo and the only one in which they lead. You would think that the Liberals would do best among the older Quebecers and worst among the young seeing as they are the most establishment and lean clearly to the right. I think this is directly attributable to the identity debate, the talk of niqabs, hijabs, burkas and burkinis may get the older people going, but young people in general find that nonsense dogwhistle race baiting disgusting. If the opposition keeps pushing this nonsense they may mobilize the youth for the Liberals in a shocking turn.

2. Mainstreet: The results of 10% for the Conservatives and 9% for the NDPQ among anglos is actually predictable and it will get worse for the Liberals because many anglos are fed up with the Liberals. What the francophone pundits who scoffed at this don't get is that Anglos don't vote Liberal because they love the Liberals. They vote Liberal because they haven't had a choice as far as a viable alternative that could win seats since 1989 with the Equality party (and even the Equality party lacked a coherent political message and any potential of breaking out of Anglo ridings). The vast majority of Anglos will never vote PQ, QS or CAQ (they did get a temporary bump but that is subsiding as people look at Legault's policies and history in government) now with the Conservatives and NDPQ they have choices regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum, really for the first time.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

pietro_bcc wrote:

These polls are pretty interesting, my biggest take away surprise from each was.

1. Leger: The Liberals are leading among the 18-34 year old demographic by a lot and that is in fact their best demo and the only one in which they lead. You would think that the Liberals would do best among the older Quebecers and worst among the young seeing as they are the most establishment and lean clearly to the right. I think this is directly attributable to the identity debate, the talk of niqabs, hijabs, burkas and burkinis may get the older people going, but young people in general find that nonsense dogwhistle race baiting disgusting. If the opposition keeps pushing this nonsense they may mobilize the youth for the Liberals in a shocking turn.

2. Mainstreet: The results of 10% for the Conservatives and 9% for the NDPQ among anglos is actually predictable and it will get worse for the Liberals because many anglos are fed up with the Liberals. What the francophone pundits who scoffed at this don't get is that Anglos don't vote Liberal because they love the Liberals. They vote Liberal because they haven't had a choice as far as a viable alternative that could win seats since 1989 with the Equality party (and even the Equality party lacked a coherent political message and any potential of breaking out of Anglo ridings). The vast majority of Anglos will never vote PQ, QS or CAQ (they did get a temporary bump but that is subsiding as people look at Legault's policies and history in government) now with the Conservatives and NDPQ they have choices regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum, really for the first time.

I highly doubt that the Conservatives or NDP polling is going to mean anything. Fact is,anglo voting means very little in deciding elections. If there is a bump,and that bump seems to be favouring the Liberals,it just takes a plurality of Francophones to decide the election. I must add that anglos make up I think just under 10% of the overall results. Their allegiences mean pretty much nothing.

lagatta4

I know quite a few anglos who voted QS in my riding. They also voted NDP and Projet Montréal. And shhh, there is a hell of a lot of pooling of activists in support of those three parties.

lagatta4

I know quite a few anglos who voted QS in my riding. They also voted NDP and Projet Montréal. And shhh, there is a hell of a lot of pooling of activists in support of those three parties.

pietro_bcc

alan smithee wrote:

pietro_bcc wrote:

These polls are pretty interesting, my biggest take away surprise from each was.

1. Leger: The Liberals are leading among the 18-34 year old demographic by a lot and that is in fact their best demo and the only one in which they lead. You would think that the Liberals would do best among the older Quebecers and worst among the young seeing as they are the most establishment and lean clearly to the right. I think this is directly attributable to the identity debate, the talk of niqabs, hijabs, burkas and burkinis may get the older people going, but young people in general find that nonsense dogwhistle race baiting disgusting. If the opposition keeps pushing this nonsense they may mobilize the youth for the Liberals in a shocking turn.

2. Mainstreet: The results of 10% for the Conservatives and 9% for the NDPQ among anglos is actually predictable and it will get worse for the Liberals because many anglos are fed up with the Liberals. What the francophone pundits who scoffed at this don't get is that Anglos don't vote Liberal because they love the Liberals. They vote Liberal because they haven't had a choice as far as a viable alternative that could win seats since 1989 with the Equality party (and even the Equality party lacked a coherent political message and any potential of breaking out of Anglo ridings). The vast majority of Anglos will never vote PQ, QS or CAQ (they did get a temporary bump but that is subsiding as people look at Legault's policies and history in government) now with the Conservatives and NDPQ they have choices regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum, really for the first time.

I highly doubt that the Conservatives or NDP polling is going to mean anything. Fact is,anglo voting means very little in deciding elections. If there is a bump,and that bump seems to be favouring the Liberals,it just takes a plurality of Francophones to decide the election. I must add that anglos make up I think just under 10% of the overall results. Their allegiences mean pretty much nothing.

I know I was speaking about anglophones before, but that's actually not what these polls measure, all polls measure non-francophone voting intention which is both anglophone and allophone.

According to the 2016 census about 20% of the population has a mother tongue that is non-francophone. Further still that number is concentrated mostly in Montreal where in 2016 49.8% of people had a non francophone mother tongue, so those non-francophone voting numbers are deeply important for the Montreal ridings. Why do you think the Liberals are scrambling with the anglo affairs minister and the secretariat? Because the non-francophone vote is deeply tied to the Liberals' fortunes and if they lose or even have their massive lead lowered they're done, they can't win with the current 16% they have with francophones but can win a minority if they boost that to maybe 25-30% (even losing to the CAQ or PQ in the francophone vote) but only if they hold their non-francophone vote.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Whoever the PQ strategist is,their doing a pathetic job. Support for sovereignty has fizzled out to almost extinction next to where it was in 1976.

That's like telling the Marijuana Party to stop worrying about weed, and tell us their plan to create jobs (that aren't marijuana-based) and give the economy a shot in the arm.

I don't disagree.  But even as the NDP must always at least seem to be listening to that last Trotskyite, the PQ can't just go mum on sovereignty, any more than PETA can "tone it down" on the whole vegetarian diet thingy.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
Whoever the PQ strategist is,their doing a pathetic job. Support for sovereignty has fizzled out to almost extinction next to where it was in 1976.

That's like telling the Marijuana Party to stop worrying about weed, and tell us their plan to create jobs (that aren't marijuana-based) and give the economy a shot in the arm.

I don't disagree.  But even as the NDP must always at least seem to be listening to that last Trotskyite, the PQ can't just go mum on sovereignty, any more than PETA can "tone it down" on the whole vegetarian diet thingy.

Very well. But because of this they are not going to win an election any time soon or possibly never. Support for sovereignty has been on a nose dive for years. People are interested in real issues these days. And the PQ clinging to sovereignty puts them on the same level as the Marijuana Party and the PETA Party. They have become a fringe party and it's all of their own making.

Legault is a sovereignist but he's put a lid on it. And it will stay that way until he gets elected. He says a lot bullshit,anything to attain power. That's all he cares about.

I think the PQ should take a page from CAQ and stick to important issues. Break out the sovereignty talk AFTER being elected. Just like CAQ is doing.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Anyone still thinking a CAQ government won't be a disaster to our social safety net and just be like any other government? You must watch this. And read between the lines. War is going to waged on the poor of proportions that would make the Liberals look like Socialists.

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1372138

 

josh

alan smithee wrote:

Anyone still thinking a CAQ government won't be a disaster to our social safety net and just be like any other government? You must watch this. And read between the lines. War is going to waged on the poor of proportions that would make the Liberals look like Socialists.

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1372138

 

A lot of manure being spread there.  But flexible manure.

NorthReport
progressive17 progressive17's picture

I am not going to worry at all about the sovereignity issue when I am deciding who to vote for, and you can definitely count me in as an "Anglo" voter. I don't like the Liberals, and I really don't like the CAQ even more. However if there is a groundswell of Allophones to the Liberals to stop the CAQ, I may join them. Although I hate the Liberals, they seem to have been doing OK on the economy, although the jobs have been shitty and low paid. There are still many who have stopped looking for work, and are not counted in the vaunted unemployment statistics.

The Quebec Conservative Party seems to be a bit of a chauvanist joke. I wonder if there is a seat available :-) So that would leave the NDPQ, the PQ, and QS. I think the NDPQ are being carpetbaggers and should have left well enough alone. So now it is seriously between the PQ and QS, and living in Laurier-Dorion, there might be a good chance either could win. I don't think CAQ will have a chance in this riding. QS may have a good shot, but we will see. The PQ might come out with a good economic platform, so we will see there too. However the riding has a multicultural profile which might give the Liberals an advantage they might not have elsewhere. In that case, it is safe for me to vote for whoever I want, not having to worry about the wretched CAQ.

As the polls are this close, we have to consider the efficiency of the votes over the ridings. I think to beat the CAQ the Liberals have to be a couple of points up on them. QS on the other hand can benefit from the "pockets of support" phenomenon where most of their support is concentrated in a few ridings. I also think that the competence of the Project Montreal government should do QS well too.

I think it is a good thing that Anglos are looking at other parties. It means they are breaking out of their tribalism and want to join the whole. Also, increasingly, I think the Anglo thing is less and less important as the years go by.

NorthReport

oops

josh
josh
pietro_bcc

I always find the most interesting part of the Leger polls to be that the Liberals are consistently the most popular party among the youngest demographic of 18-34. Now that is truly puzzling because you'd think the young would be the group where the Liberals are least popular. I think this can be directly attributed to the debate surrounding religion, hell the fact that the NDPQ now supports Bouchard-Taylor made me leave the party so its certainly had an effect on my voting intention. I'll probably vote Green next election because of it. The majority of Quebecers may be in favor of these laws, but the young aren't.

NorthReport

Doesn't look good!

Voici la nouvelle projection électorale Qc125: la CAQ au seuil de la majorité.

https://twitter.com/Qc_125/status/999233159530254338

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I'm deeply ashamed of what Québec is turning into. The rise of the far right is troubling. Yet another far right group this time raiding the office of Vice Montréal.

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/anti-immigrant-group-barges-into-offices-of-...

I want to get the hell out of here before fascism becomes the norm. Only to be helped this election with the victory of the party pandering to these groups is elected.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

CTV Montreal keeps pushing CAQ. Could your agenda be any more blatant? Fuck you.

NorthReport

CAQ 83 seats

Libs 33 seats

PQ 5 seats

QS 4 seats

Looks like a Doug Ford repeat in Quebec although QS might come ahead of the PQ 

https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/politique/la-caq-se-dirige-vers-u...

NorthReport

New Quebec poll suggests Coalition Avenir Quebec has healthy lead

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2018/06/13/new-quebec-poll-suggests-co...

pietro_bcc
NorthReport

Check your link

pietro_bcc

NorthReport wrote:

Check your link

I checked, it links to the June 11th poll by Leger? I know its in french but that's how they are.

NorthReport

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