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Election Prediction Project for BC
January 14, 2009 - 11:10am
appears to be up and running.
It only offers predictions for 15 out of 85 ridings. It says nothing at all, not even "too close to call" about the other 70.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________ Our Demands Most Moderate are/ We Only Want The World! -James Connolly
I think the predictor wastes a great symbol on the "too close to call" category. B.C. politics would be immeasurably improved if it actually included a Rainbow Lightningbolt Party.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________ Our Demands Most Moderate are/ We Only Want The World! -James Connolly
Its a Liberal dream for sure and its been no tea party either but its not tea leaves at the bottom of their cups but Conservatives woes dressed up in Liberal schemes thats most likely going to hurt their futures. Conservatives cover Liberals hinnies? Makes you wonder doesn't it? Bet thats not in the tea cup either. Its a good idea to have a criteria in mind and know whats going on and stay informed and finally use your intuition as a fail safe resource. And there is the occasion or two or three that I was wrong like Harper, thought maybe he would come across for the people, but that doesn't appear to be in the leaves either, Maple Leaf.
"Prediction": Gordon Campbell's Liberal Credit will win once again. But don't pay no attention to me, it's just one of those krazy hunches I get...
Well I certainly hope you're wrong. I'm going out to B.C. to work on this campaign. It would be nice to work on an NDP campaign which won government for once!
As to the election prediction project. Disregarding the inherent bias of the owner (which certainly exists, and based on previous elections seems to favour the Liberals at least federally) the results come from the data which people post.
More weight is given to posters who identify themselves (rather than post anonymously) and to posters who claim some sort of knowledge of a riding. Either through anecdotal evidence, claims to internal information, or public polling.
The more NDP supporters who start posting credible predictions of NDP victories in certain ridings, the more ridings will start to be called for the NDP.
That said, i don't know if its worth the time. No one but us hardened politicos reads his site anyway. Its kind of like an inside joke among campaign staff.
You are correct, Milton has been a long time Federal/Prov Liberal.
Forget about the Election Prediction Project.
Here's the new 85 seat legislature with 2005 vote transposition for each seat, when the Lib - NDP spread was 4% on voting day:
http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.com/2009/02/looking-at-85-ridings.html
Here's the latest Mustel poll showing a 16% Lib - NDP spread:
http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20090213.pdf
Pretty easy to figure out the seat count right now.
Unless something dramatically changes over the next few weeks, I'm not holding my breath.
Interesting to note in the link that bciconcolast suggests that there are 32 safe Liberal seats and 18 safe NDP seats which means that 35 seats are up for grabs and the Liberals would only need a win a third of those to be re-elected
Milton currently has the Liberals with 34 seats and the NDP 20 so his predictions to date are pretty mainstream but then it was Remind that predicted Hedy Fry would lose big time in Vancouver Center and Milton correctly predicted her re-election.
"Unless something dramatically changes over the next few weeks"
this is BC! Something dramatic WILL happen over the next few days let alone the next few weeks! No province is as consistently volatile and unpredictable.
Well folks- I am new here- sort of- used to have a different name.
"Unless something dramatically changes over the next few weeks"
Guess what- huge story on the Tyee, Globe today about the legislature raids and the BC Rail sale. I suspect the Campbell Neo-cons are in for a bit of a rough ride.
remind, you're thinking of democraticSpace, which is run by Greg Morrow, who is now the National Campaign Committee Chair of the Green Party.