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New Westminster-Coquitlam federal byelection

robbie_dee
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Joined: Apr 20 2001

Continued from this thread: MP Dawn Black Ready to Jump to Provincial Politics?

The first potential contender for Dawn Black's soon-to-be-vacant federal seat has stepped forward. 

Tri-City News: Coquitlam Councillor Barry Lynch to seek federal NDP nomination

Quote:

A Coquitlam civic politician wants to make the leap into the federal arena.

Coun. Barrie Lynch told The Tri-City News this week he'll run for the NDP nomination to replace Dawn Black, the New Westminster-Coquitlam MP who's stepping down to run provincially in May. The NDP defence critic said she'll quit her job on or before the provincial writ is dropped on April 14.

"It wasn't something that I anticipated to do this early," Lynch said. "The federal level is something I have thought about. With Dawn resigning, and with people supporting me and encouraging me to run, I have given it some serious consideration."

"I am interested," he said.

Lynch said he planned to complete his third term in municipal politics before running for a senior government seat and he has even considered putting his name forward for the provincial race.

Should Lynch win the NDP nomination, which may be decided in June for a possible federal by-election in the fall, he said he will forfeit his $13,000 surplus he raised during the civic campaign last November for the municipal by-election.

Asked about a possible challenge with Elizabeth May, the federal Green Party leader who is thinking about running in New West-Coquitlam, Lynch called her bid "opportunistic," adding, "She doesn't even live out here."

A six-year NDP member, Lynch has been a Coquitlam resident for 33 years, though not in the New West-Coquitlam riding. A paramedic, he has a bachelor's degree from Simon Fraser University and a Master's degree in leadership from Royal Roads University.

First elected to Coquitlam city council in 2002, Lynch was the second-highest scoring candidate in last November's civic election, earning 9,238 votes.


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robbie_dee
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Joined: Apr 20 2001

Another potential NDP hopeful has now stepped forward, too.

Theresa McManus, "New Westminster's Lorrie Williams eyes run at federal seat," Vancouver Sun, March 21, 2009.

Quote:

New Westminster city councillor Lorrie Williams is giving serious consideration to seeking the NDP nomination for the federal New Westminster-Coquitlam riding, where MP Dawn Black is resigning because she's running as the NDP candidate in May's provincial election.

Coquitlam councillor Barrie Lynch has thrown his name into the hat to be the NDP candidate in the federal riding.

"I may, but that isn't a total 'Yes' yet," Williams told The Record Friday. "I've got to think of my home situation."

Williams said it's probably the worst time to be a politician, given the global economic downturn, but she is seriously considering a run at the NDP nomination.

"Everybody is all over the map federally," she said. "We can't lose sight of the fact we need housing, we need child care."

Williams said federal politics is a good fit for her as she thinks nationally and internationally. In addition to teaching in Africa, Thailand and Germany before her retirement, she founded and continues to operate a school for girls in Africa.

"My very first foray into politics was a federal campaign," she said. "I first dipped my toes in the federal pool."

In 2000, Williams was the NDP candidate in the former New Westminster-Coquitlam-Burnaby riding, placing third behind incumbent Paul Forseth and Liberal Lee Rankin.

"In a way, we knew it was a lost cause," she said. "People were upset with Mr. (Glen) Clark at that time."

In addition to having a tenant, the animal lover said she also has to consider the needs of her dogs as she would often be in Ottawa.

Williams said she has been holding back on making a decision until after the NDP holds its March 28 nomination meeting for the provincial riding.

"I am going to wait until after the nomination meeting," she said. "To me, that is respectful. Maybe it doesn't matter."

Williams said New Westminster-Coquitlam is a swing riding. Prior to Black's past two federal victories, the seat was held by Reform/Canadian Alliance/Conservative MP Paul Forseth.

"I certainly am known in New Westminster," said Williams, who lives in the riding. "I would have to work on Coquitlam-Port Moody."

On the Conservative side, apparently Paul Forseth is considering a comeback as well.


Basement Dweller
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Joined: Nov 27 2006

So anyone care to comment on Lynch and Williams?

From what I can tell, they are a copy of nobodies. Neither could hold the seat.


no1important
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Joined: Mar 29 2005
Why would Dawn Black rsign her seat to join the ranks of the unemployed trying to run under Ms. James the worse NDP leader this province ever had? I am a lifelong NDP supporter and member but even I think Carole James is bad news..

Baddwolf
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Joined: Jul 1 2005
I also am a lifelong supporter of the NDP who finds it hard to understand why Dawn Black would resign her federal seat. As for Williams running, that doesn't seem like the best thing for the party. When she was the candidate in 2000 she ran 3rd and got 15% of the vote. In 2004 she lost the nomination to Steve McClurg who narrowly missed defeating the incumbant Paul Forseth. Forseth is now talking about running for the Conservatives. The Liberal who ran second in 2000 is now running in the provincial election but if he loses maybe he will run federally and we can have a replay of the 2000 elecitonCry

Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

From what I heard Dawn Black almost didn't run again in October. The commuting every week from Vancouver to Ottawa and back is very very grueling. Then when the NDP incumbent in New Westminster unexpectedly retired for health reasons, she figured that it would be a good move. The riding is a supersafe NDP seat - so either the NDP forms government and she becomes a cabinet minister - or the NDP loses and and she probably figures that if she is going to be in opposition why not enjoy the lifestyle of commuting between vancouver and Victoria rather than Vancouver and Ottawa. Makes sense to me.

I know nothing about Lorrie Williams - but I don't hold it against her that she got 15% in the riding in 2000. That was the NDP's worst showing in BC of all times with just 11% of the vote provincewide and the Clark governemtnwas at its peak of unpopularity. 


ottawaobserver
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Joined: Feb 24 2008

I take it that we probably won't hear much more about potential Liberal and Conservative candidates there until after the provincial election is out of the way, is that right?


Adam T
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Joined: Nov 7 2003

Zoe Royer may join race to replace NDP MP Dawn Black in New Westminster-Coquitlam

http://www.straight.com/article-210305/zoe-royer-may-join-race-replace-ndp-mp-dawn-black-new-westminstercoquitlam 


V. Jara
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Joined: May 12 2005

It's good several candidates are taking a sniff at the post. A contested nomination would get a lot more party activists engaged in any potential upcoming byelection than would otherwise. It also allows for a bit of a seasoning process, regardless of who gets elected. The most unfortunate thing about this byelection is that it's going to be very expensive. The NDP must spend the maximum. Given the NDP's strength in New Westminister, they need a candidate stronger in the Coquitlam part of the riding.

For those that are more visual:

Coquitlam (provincial NDP):

http://bc2009.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/coquitlam-m-portcoquitlam.gif

New Westminister (provincial NDP)

http://bc2009.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/burnaby-newwestminster-2005...

And those more numerical...

Federally 2008 results:

New Westminster    48.29%
Group 2/Groupe 2    42.57%
Mobile poll/Bureau itinÈrant    42.39%
Port Moody    39.92%
Coquitlam    38.75%
Group 1/Groupe 1    32.54%

ETA: Here are the demographics for Coquitlam. As you can see, there has been some gentrification that has gone on.


Lord Palmerston
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Joined: Jan 25 2004

In what sense?


Basement Dweller
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Joined: Nov 27 2006

Re Demographics:

The most notable statistic is the drop in rental units from 2001 to 2006. For this riding it was a 12.7% drop versus 3.6% for all of BC.

This probably means less affordable housing. No surprise. However, average rent has only gone up 4.3% over five years versus 10.4% for all of BC. I know my rent has only gone up about 1% a year in the recent past (less than inflation) with no increase this year (zip, zero, nada).Money mouth

The real estate bubble has messed with the housing market around here. Its harder to find purpose-built rental housing which is usually the most affordable. However, the "luxury" condos are flooding the market. Those "investors" are coming up against a hard reality. Good, stable tenants can and will pay only so much rent. Holding onto high rents means the "investors" have short-term tenants who are often sketchy characters and might wreck the place. Eventually they will have to come to terms with the level of rent required to keep good , long-term tenants.

Gentrification? No, the pot got stirred a bit but things are settling down again.

 


ottawaobserver
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Joined: Feb 24 2008

You can get all the census data for the federal riding at the Pundits' Guide ...

New Westminster - Coquitlam

The percent tenants has gone down across the riding.  Also, the percent of visible minority population has gone up.  And interestingly only 56% of the population lived at the same address 5 years ago.  And the average family size is up.


Adam T
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Joined: Nov 7 2003

The Federal Liberals have asked Port Moody mayor Joe Trasolini to run for them.  

Dawn Black's final legislation in parliament was to get Port Moody added to the name of the riding (I'm not sure if it passed). My understanding is that around half of Port Moody is in the riding (and the other half is in James Moore's riding). 

I believe that makes the population centres of this riding something like:

25,000 New Westminster (New Westminster is split practically in half)

25,000 Port Moody

50,000 Coquitlam

100,000

 


V. Jara
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Joined: May 12 2005

Here's where the votes were in the 2008 election:

Coquitlam    28219
New Westminster    14261
Port Moody    6074
Group 2/Groupe 2    599
Mobile poll/Bureau itinÈrant    578
Group 1/Groupe 1    126

If the NDP is going to spend all the money and resources that it will take to defend that seat, I hope there can be some sort of win-win like the NDP gets a young and promising MP or a BC MP from a diversity community (there are zero currently).


Baddwolf
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Joined: Jul 1 2005

The Coquitlam councillor Fin Donnelly has announce he will be contesting the NDP nomination in New Westminster-Coquitlam. He has a reputation as an environmentalist.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Here is the story. Its certainly a good sign that so many high profile people want to run for the NDP in the upcoming byelection.

 

http://www.bclocalnews.com/tri_city_maple_ridge/tricitynews/news/UPDATED...

 


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

Open season on guesses when this one might be called.

I have always been of the opinion that the Cons will do a great deal to get this seat. Since the odds are significatly in favour of the NDP, and sitting governments don't do as well in by-elections [let alone in the midst of bad economic news], I think its a safe bet that it will only be a by-election if they cannot avoid that.

Despite the fact a general in the Fall, let alone now, is looking pretty doubtful, it will not be certain it won't happen until the Cons cut a deal with the Bloc, which in turn is unlikely until farirly close to Fall confidence vote.

But they can have their cake and eat it to by as they did last year calling by-elections to fall before a possible general election date... so that if there is a general, it wipes out the by-elections. I expect this to be the case again.

After the confidence votes coming up in a couple weeks, the next opportunity will be the the Fall session vote on the 'report' of the fiscal stimulus progress. And I would say, the writ dropping about 6 weeks before that is expected to occur. [And those reports I think are slated near the end of each legislative supply cycle... if anyone knows what the estimate of that would be.]

[This by-election has to be called by October 13, but the e-day can (by law) be for far into the future. See http://www.punditsguide.ca/2009/05/third-seat-now-officially-vacant.php#links for the time frames on calling the elections for the now 3 open seats, this being the first that has to be called.]

The other possibility I can see is that if the government works out a deal with the Bloc for a confidence vote before this needs to happen, that the e-day will be put off till December to get it as far away as possible from a deal that will not be popular in BC. But as far as when the writ is dropped, this wouldn't likely make that date any earlier.


West Coast Lefty
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Joined: Feb 6 2003

KenS wrote:

Open season on guesses when this one might be called.

I have always been of the opinion that the Cons will do a great deal to get this seat. Since the odds are significatly in favour of the NDP, and sitting governments don't do as well in by-elections [let alone in the midst of bad economic news], I think its a safe bet that it will only be a by-election if they cannot avoid that.

Despite the fact a general in the Fall, let alone now, is looking pretty doubtful, it will not be certain it won't happen until the Cons cut a deal with the Bloc, which in turn is unlikely until farirly close to Fall confidence vote.

But they can have their cake and eat it to by as they did last year calling by-elections to fall before a possible general election date... so that if there is a general, it wipes out the by-elections. I expect this to be the case again.

After the confidence votes coming up in a couple weeks, the next opportunity will be the the Fall session vote on the 'report' of the fiscal stimulus progress. And I would say, the writ dropping about 6 weeks before that is expected to occur. [And those reports I think are slated near the end of each legislative supply cycle... if anyone knows what the estimate of that would be.]

[This by-election has to be called by October 13, but the e-day can (by law) be for far into the future. See http://www.punditsguide.ca/2009/05/third-seat-now-officially-vacant.php#links for the time frames on calling the elections for the now 3 open seats, this being the first that has to be called.]

The other possibility I can see is that if the government works out a deal with the Bloc for a confidence vote before this needs to happen, that the e-day will be put off till December to get it as far away as possible from a deal that will not be popular in BC. But as far as when the writ is dropped, this wouldn't likely make that date any earlier.

I believe Pundit's Guide predicts a mid-August writ drop for a Sept 14 E-Day for the by-elections (I could be a bit off on that date), and I think this is the more likely scenario.  As I wrote in an earlier thread, the Cons can't lose by calling these by-elections as they don't hold any of these 3 seats currently, and they are very likely to gain Bill Casey's seat (as I learned by the vehement babble reaction to my innocent query as to whether the NDP had a chance in that NS federal seat, given Dexter's surge provincially). 

Iggy and the Libs will be under a lot of media pressure to show increased support in all 3 ridings and to be competitive in the New West-Coquitlam seat in particular, so they will dedicate significant resources to the by-elections.  If the NDP wins New West-Coq (as I am now predicting with Donnely's entry in the nomination race), that's good for Jack and Harper as well as it helps stop the Iggy surge in the media and public opinion.  I don't see how it helps Harper to delay the by-elections,plus if they take place in mid-September, it will be one more argument for Harper to use against the opposition if they try to bring down the government ("you're forcing the voters in these ridings to vote twice in 3 months.")


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

I'm pretty sure PG did not make any predictions, just gave the possible ranges. Post a link if you see otherwise.

And I think you're being too fancy and attaching unwarranted importance to how things look overall. A seat is a seat, and the Cons want this one. Either they are better off in a general election for that, or not.


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

West Coast Lefty wrote:
As I wrote in an earlier thread, the Cons can't lose by calling these by-elections as they don't hold any of these 3 seats currently, and they are very likely to gain Bill Casey's seat (as I learned by the vehement babble reaction to my innocent query as to whether the NDP had a chance in that NS federal seat, given Dexter's surge provincially). 

Generally, I suspect that the NDP would only really have a chance of winning if Layton were having some "1987 Broadbent" wind in his sails.  But I wouldn't be surprised if the Dexter honeymoon leads to a surprisingly strong second place finish.  (Along the lines of how the NDP candidate fared in 2000's Maurizio Bevilacqua rerun byelection, right in the middle of Bob Rae's post-election honeymoon.)


West Coast Lefty
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Joined: Feb 6 2003

KenS wrote:

I'm pretty sure PG did not make any predictions, just gave the possible ranges. Post a link if you see otherwise.

And I think you're being too fancy and attaching unwarranted importance to how things look overall. A seat is a seat, and the Cons want this one. Either they are better off in a general election for that, or not.

Here's the link to the PG posting and the key quote from it is below:

 

PG quote: Thus I'm sticking with my earlier guess of a Monday August 3 call for Tuesday September 8, or a Monday August 10 call for Monday September 14 (the House reconvenes on Monday September 21).

 

I agree the Cons want the NWC seat, but they have other fish to fry and in my view, more reasons to call the by-elections then not to call them.

 


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

The only other fish to fry is the open Quebec seat, where the Cons may have Mario Dumont running. PG voted for Harper wanting to get that out of the way and Dumont on board.

If Dumont is not running, I wouldn't think they have much chance for that seat, and what chance they have is better in a general election. So in that case, I see them leaving this one seperate and calling it for after the Novemeber municipal elections.

If Dumont is the candidate, it is his personal popularity against the Bloc in a strong Bloc seat, while the Cons are in the dumps. Definitley doable, and I guess there is a possibility the attention he would get makes a by-election look somehet more attractive than it usually would for govt in power. But I don't know that Dumont winning is such a sure thing, and/or that he is best off running sooner than later, that the Cons will want to get that election done soon as PG suggests.

But if they do, that would indeed trump preferring to have this NWC election left hanging for longer.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

I actually think that the Tory's chances of winning NWC are quite remote. While they came relatively close there in 2008, that as in the context of a federal election where the Tories did particularly well in BC and took 44% of the vote there and in NWC the Liberals vote completely collapsed and seems to have largely gone Tory. What has changed since the election? Well for one thing the Tories have been dropping in the polls across Canada and are no where near 44% in BC and most polls have them more in the mid-30s if not lower. The Liberals are almost certain to do better in a byelection than they did in the last election as a result of not being led by Dion anymore and they will probably run some rightwing BC Liberal who will cut into the Tory vote from last time. The names being floated as possible Tory candidates in NWC sound pretty underwhelming - including Paul Forseth who Dawn Black defeated who is a real neanderthal throwback to the old Reform Party - meanwhile the NDP seems to have an embarrassment of riches in terms of good people wanting to run for the nomination with this guy Fin Donnelly sounding particularly attractive and in the recent provincial election the NDP won New EWestminster in a landslide and took Coquitlam Maillardville more narrowly.

This riding is the NDP's to lose and I think the Tories know it.


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

I agree.

But if its doable, they'll do everything they can to win it. The only thing they might not do- and then only if Dumont is going to run in Quebec- is strataegize the timing in a way that will harm there chances eleswehere.

The Cons concede nothing when it comes to campaigning strength and resources. A.] They'll try to win it. B.] If nothing else, they keep the upper edge by making their opponents work hard at all times. Permanenet campaigning takes place on the ground as well as on the highlighted national stage.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

My prediction is an August call for early September.

Harper wants to win back Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley as a means of rubbing Iggy's face in electoral defeat.

September 14th is my call.


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

No one could spin not winning CCVM as a defeat for Iggy and the Liberals.

The Liberals are the ones into bluster and bullshit.

Harper and his crew go for real victories. And part of that is going for winning all the time.

Look at the $50 billion deficit boondoggle. The Liberals are having a field day in the press, and you'd think they smelled blood.

But come the confidence vote in 3 weeks and we'll see who has the last laugh... and calling attention to the real size [or somewhat inflating it even] was part of setting the stage for that.


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

KenS wrote:

No one could spin not winning CCVM as a defeat for Iggy and the Liberals.

Maybe third place behind the NDP can be spun as a defeat--and even there, a provincial NDP honeymoon can be invoked as an alibi...


keglerdave
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Joined: May 24 2004

One more candidate for NWC-PM, Fin Donnelly, coquitlam city councillor and in my opinion, the front runner for the NDP. If Trasolini is the Liberal candidate, the NDP should win this riding going away. In the last election, the Liberal vote collapsed almost exclusively into the Conservative vote, due in large part to the weakness of the federal campaign.  That led to the closeness of the vote between Dawn Black and the "patronage princess" Yonah Martin. Rumours have Forseth seeking a comeback for the Conservatives, but there are other names being bandied about for them from the Coquitlam and Port Moody side of the riding.  Of the 3 NDP candidates declared, Fin is best suited and the best candidate to keep the riding for the NDP. He has some buzz on the New West side from his famous swim across the Fraser from Sapperton Landing.  All 3 candidates have their own things going for them, but having met all 3, I find that Fin is the best choice in the upcoming nomination meeting.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Any news on the NDP nomination here or on who is likely to run for the other parties? now that there is a good chance of these byelections actually taking place.


West Coast Lefty
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Joined: Feb 6 2003

Stockholm wrote:

Any news on the NDP nomination here or on who is likely to run for the other parties? now that there is a good chance of these byelections actually taking place.

The NDP nomination is June 28th and I agree Donnelly is the strongest choice and likely winner of the nomination contest.  The Cons had some candidates declaring in the media but I can't recall the name(s).  The Libs were courting Trasolini but no word as to whether he will run or not.  I figure he won't run as the Iggy surge was never that strong in BC to begin with. The classic fed Lib approach in BC is to come up with "star" candidates and/or ex-NDPers to try to cover up their lack of organization in the province. 


ottawaobserver
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Joined: Feb 24 2008

The Conservatives have 3 candidates running, I read ... former Reformer Paul Forseth, a city councillor from Port Moody, Diane Dilworth and some community volunteer Lorraine Brett.  They're supposedly nominating in July.


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