Your prediction on the BC Election May 12, 2009

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ghoris

Stockholm wrote:

The last thing the federal NDP needs would be to go into a federal election in Spring 2010 saddled with a hated NDP provincial government in BC and watch the number of NDP MPs from BC drop from 9 to 2 or 3. Better to let Campbell become the most hated man in BC and let the Liberals become the lightning rod for the intense anger we will see over the coming year.

Easy for you to say from downtown Toronto. Those of us who actually live here and are directly affected by this government see things slightly differently, and I, for one, do not want another four years of Campbell. Frankly, I don't give a good god-damn whether it would or wouldn't be good for Layton and the federal party, because who sits in the Premier's chair in Victoria has a hell of a lot more impact on me than whether there are 3 more MPs on the fourth-party benches in Ottawa.

remind remind's picture

ghoris wrote:
Easy for you to say from downtown Toronto. Those of us who actually live here and are directly affected by this government see things slightly differently, and I, for one, do not want another four years of Campbell. Frankly, I don't give a good god-damn whether it would or wouldn't be good for Layton and the federal party, because who sits in the Premier's chair in Victoria has a hell of a lot more impact on me than whether there are 3 more MPs on the fourth-party benches in Ottawa.

I do agree with this too, but things are not always mutually exclusive. The BC NDP needs to win this election, or come as close to it as they possbily can, first and foremost. And I am working very hard to have that happen.

remind remind's picture

Spectrum wrote:
Remind wrote:
Those who don't know are merely political pawns in global geo-political strategies.

This is a very telling statement of awareness that needs to be put before those that are "sleeping their way through life." Get involved to know the issues,  and what you will find will utterly shock you into waking up.

yep, but a lot of people are resistent to waking up as of yet anyway. Plus they insulate themselves so they cannot find out anything.

Assembly Talker

Rewind,

 

I see you changed your sub-title to "is now undecided re STV"  had a change of heart?

 

AT

insert-label-here

My prediction is another win for the insert-label-here Party of Mr. Campbell. Close but decisive.

I also predict a win for the independent candidate in Delta South, Vicki Huntington, who lost the previous election by 1069 votes.

Stockholm

Ghoris, don't get me wrong. I would be jumping for joy if the BC NDP were to win on Tuesday. But I'm just saying that I think that anyone taking power at this point in time is almost guaranteed to become extremely unpopular extremely quickly. I guess that given that I thnk winning is a bit of a longshot on Tuesday, I'm trying to console myself with the fact that NOT being in power in Bc will be better for the federal party.

Basement Dweller

Stockholm wrote:

anyone taking power at this point in time is almost guaranteed to become extremely unpopular extremely quickly.

Indeed, that's what I was saying before. This is a BAD time to get elected to government. The BC economy is about to take a sh!t-kicking.

The upside is the Liberals will spend so much time in damage control that they won't pursue many of their ideological objectives.

Stockholm

Don't be so sure. I can easily see Campbell doing a hard right turn after the election and saying that in order to prevent the deficit from increasing at all - all social spending has to be drastically cut and public sector wages rolled back and he will be smiling from ear to ear as he does it - one thing we know about Campbell is that he takes sadistic pleasure in making people suffer.

Frank_

The coming cuts are going to hurt people and the people that are going to be hurt are the ones that most need help.

I'd rather the NDP was in power and could alleviate that regardless of whether bloggers in 2021 could use it against us.  They ignore facts any way.

 

 

 

brookmere

Frank_ wrote:
The coming cuts are going to hurt people and the people that are going to be hurt are the ones that most need help.

I'd rather the NDP was in power and could alleviate that regardless of whether bloggers in 2021 could use it against us.  They ignore facts any way.

As Stockholm said, that would put the BC NDP in the same position in 2009 as the Ontario NDP was in 1990. Actually not the same probably, as I think the economy will be a lot worse. That would set things up for something even worse then Campbell or Harris in 2012.

It's clear the NDP is going to lose and the best we can hope for is that it doesn't lose too badly so that Gordo doesn't have a blank chqeue. Once the Liberals' credibiity on economic management is shattered, the NDP can get on with a platform for sustainable economic development for 2012.

 

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

insert-label-here wrote:

My prediction is another win for the insert-label-here Party of Mr. Campbell. Close but decisive.

I also predict a win for the independent candidate in Delta South, Vicki Huntington, who lost the previous election by 1069 votes.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________ Our Demands Most Moderate are/ We Only Want The World! -James Connolly

From a progressive standpoint, would it be a good or bad thing if Huntington took that riding?  What is her motivation for campaigning as an independent?

Stockholm

I forgot to also mention that another thing that Campbell is certain to do AFTER the votes are counted is use the recession and the deficit as an excuse to kill of what little is left of any climate change initiatives and further decimate the Ministry of the Environment. It will be interesting to see the reaction of all those shills in the pretendy-environmentalist movement try to make excuses for him when that happens.

He'll probably also cancel all the taxpayer funded junkets to environmental conferences in Geneva that he probably used as a carrot to entice some of the more "bourgeois environmentalist" to say nice things about him during the campaign. They will feel used and manipulated by him and he will just cackle in their faces.

insert-label-here

She was the first choice to represent the riding for the Green party, the NDP, _and_ the Liberal party. Mr. Campbell himself offered her the riding, but she declined them all. The only conclusion I can draw from that is it is a good thing if she wins, no matter ones standpoint. She is running against a sitting Cabinet Minister that lives in the riding, but only ever ran in a safe seat. Her election will send a pointed message to all parties they would be wise to heed.

I can't answer the second question Ken, but my guess is she rejects partisan politics in toto, choosing to represent her constituents to the Legislature, rather than representing _any_ party and its policies to the people in her riding.

West Coast Lefty

ghoris wrote:

Well, the last round of polls is out. Mustel has the Liberals up by 9, 47-38, Ipsos has them up by 8, 47-39 and Angus Reid has the Liberals up by just 2 points, 44-42. In all cases the Greens are polling around 10%.

I don't have a lot of faith in that Angus Reid poll, sadly. I suspect Mustel and Ipsos are closer to the mark. Mustel was by far the most accurate pollster in 2005. Their last pre-election poll was Libs 45, NDP 40, Green 12, and the final numbers were Libs 45.8, NDP 41.5, Green 9.1 (basically they were on the money except some Green supporters didn't bother to get out to the polls).

Assuming the final numbers are something like 48-40-8, I expect that for the most part the status quo will be preserved, although there are incumbents in both parties who are threatened. On the whole, I expect we will see a net loss of a few NDP seats. So my guess is:

Liberal   51  

NDP      34

Green     0 

I'm pretty close to you but I think the NDP will have a net loss of 3 seats (they have 34 seats now) and Huntington will win in Delta  South.

Lib 53

NDP 31

Ind 1

remind remind's picture

Quote:
In sum, the Nordhaus carbon tax proposal contravenes globally agreed principles and
plays into the hands of those opposed to urgent action on warming. To suggest that a
carbon tax system would obviate the need for “highly politicized and uncertain
negotiations” and that, by contrast, “a carbon-tax model provides a friendly way for
countries to join a climate treaty” indicates that Nordhaus’ carbon tax sits comfortably
in a text book but has little relevance to the real world of climate policy.

http://www.clivehamilton.net.au/cms/media/critique_of_nordhaus.pdf

 

canuquetoo

Another sip from the poisoned chalice for Ms. James should she win will be the funding struggle between an entitled parent community demanding more education resources as enrolment dwindles and the much larger older demographic demanding better services important to that community such as health care and assisted living.

Ms. James has placed herself in a vulnerable position, should she win, of having to do more with less in spite of her campaign promises. Her policy point of raising oil and gas royalties by $400 million per annum is misplaced in a BC industry comprised of mostly gas production that is selling at 50% of its production cost.

Leaving it in the ground is fine as long as one considers the industry is the only cash cow BC has unless the NDP plan to tax BC's largest industry: Marijuana. Timing a royalty increase to a period of profitability is one thing but increasing cost when industry is targeting development funding to only the most attractive areas is short-sighted.

remind remind's picture

There are a good many value added industries, and others, in BC that need to be developed,  oil and gas can go away if they do not like the increase in royalities. But then of course they the oil and gas companies, are moving in to take over our rivers and lakes, anyway so, I am sure they could give a rat's ass about oil and gas, seeing as how the future is in hydro electric power.

Wilf Day

canuquetoo wrote:
. . . unless the NDP plan to tax BC's largest industry: Marijuana.

The recession made me do it. Interesting. Might even Gordon Campbell surprise us all and do that too?

melovesproles

I doubt it, taxing wealthy businessmen isn't Cambell's kind of policy. 

I also doubt he'll put much effort into trying to eliminate the industry, its one of the few things keeping revenue coming in throughout a lot of the province.  So far the Green party are the only one's talking about that reality.  The NDP are taking the ostrich approach.

remind remind's picture

So what are you saying here meloves, that the Green Party is all for cutting off one of the sources of revenue that is keeping thing going throughout a lot of the province? Tongue out

melovesproles

Not cutting it off, taxing it.  I think that would be a good idea.  I think anyone who argues that the BC government is going to shut down marijuana production in BC during the economic downturn is lying.

Basement Dweller

"I can easily see Campbell doing a hard right turn"

That's not what's happening federally. I loved the look on Harper's face when he talked about partially nationalizing Chrysler. Now the Conservatives are cracking down on bank credit cards, and various other interventions that they can barely stomach.

Its the temper of the times. Reagan and Thatcher are long gone (Reagan literally), and 80s are long over. Baby boomers are getting old and worrying more about health care than taxes.

Obama, with his big spending commitments, is setting a new tone like he wants to be FDR2. Capitalism has never looked so bad, and government spending has never looked so good. All over the North America, governments will be intervening and spending more than ever, to the extent that they can. Hungry people don't stay hungry for long. The middle class cannot weather unemployment for long before it plummets into poverty.

It doesn't matter who we elect right now, the future is more "socialist". Even here in BC.

Jamie Deith

My prediction:

Seat counts unchanged.

STV - no idea.  The low polls we are seeing are at odds with my in-person campaigning experience.

munroe

Sorry, BD, but that is not what the record implies.  First, Harper is going through the motions.  Secondly, Gordo has already taken measures to meet the crisis by cutting and not stimulating.  In BC, the "Bennett solution", eliminating workers and destroying progress is already in the works. 

It is only a "socialist" agenda if socialism is understood to be for those who have and who control.  Cut taxes, eliminate programmes, cut payroll is his answer to the problem (with a tiny bit of deficit to do so on the side). 

We as people and the workers sho produce the wealth should never be conned by the "trinkle down", Friedman economics that are part of the root cause of the crisis.

Politics101

"Seat counts unchanged."

Kinda hard to do that given that there are 6 more seats due to more seats being added.

There are now 85 single member seats.

Want to give it another go.

 

Politics101

If Huntington wins does any think that she might switch to the Conservatives and become there leader - after all her father was a well-known federal conservative.

 

 

melovesproles

Quote:
If Huntington wins does any think that she might switch to the Conservatives and become there leader - after all her father was a well-known federal conservative.

So was Jack Layton's

remind remind's picture

melovesproles wrote:
Not cutting it off, taxing it.  I think that would be a good idea.  I think anyone who argues that the BC government is going to shut down marijuana production in BC during the economic downturn is lying.

Yes, taxing it has been floating around for a very long time. It is not a Green Party initiative, or idea even, it is just another thing they co-opted to make themselves appear progressive. However, the reality is, Canadian provinces are not like US states, they do not have the autonomy do such a thing.

In order for it to become taxable, it would have to be legalized federally, not just decriminalized, then introduced into federal food and drug, agricultural  and industry, laws, as an commercial product, and then other laws and regulations would have to constructed around its growth and distribution by way of evironmental standards,  potency contents, chemical content, and where it would be marketed, etc. A huge amount of money would have to be spent creating the whole system beyond what I have noted, as people will have to be certified in all aspects of marijuana growth in order to over see it, as such training and certification programs would have to  be developed, and teachers found to teach certification. All this is no small fete and it is disengenuous to depict it as easy peasy and cost effective.

As such, it would be a while before any real gains were made making it profitable, as a net taxation gain. And the reaity is, it just isn't going to happen when governments are running a deficit and the economy is in a state of collapse.

Also, would have to happen first is that the large growers/producers/distributors would have to be recognized, as the legal producer/distributors, just like was done with alcohol. Moreover, private growing in any amounts would then be out of the question, just like growing tobacco privately is. It would be a while before, "U Grow It" industries, would become available, as that would require another level of bureacracy.

And really what you are talking about here is *gasp* economic growth. It would certainly be 'green' though. ;)

 

Jamie Deith

Politics101 wrote:

"Seat counts unchanged."

Kinda hard to do that given that there are 6 more seats due to more seats being added.

There are now 85 single member seats.

Want to give it another go.

Sorry - should have been proportions.

Libs: 49 Seats

NDP: 36 Seats

Adam T

Liberal 48

NDP 37

 

In the last Manitoba election only 3 seats changed hands.  It wouldn't surprise me if something like that occurred here (although the riding redistribution messes things up a bit).

Adam T

It would be interesting to see (though I hope it doesn't occur) the political ramifications if the Vancouver Canucks lose on monday, one day before the election.  I understand an unhappy electorate is usually bad news for the incumbent party.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

This has some truth to it.  The defeat of the Labour Party in the 1970 UK general election has been blamed, in part(and by sources inside and outside Labour circles)on the England team's failure to retain the World Cup right before polling day.

Politics101

Update on Milton's election prediction site

Lib 41

NDP 37

TCTC 7

One of the undecided is Delta South but he has put Prince George Valemount in the Liberal camp - he also has them winning Saanich North but losing Comox

ghoris

Some interesting predictions there. They are showing some NDP gains on the Island (Comox Valley and Cowichan Valley - a new seat), four gains in the interior (Kootenay East, Kamloops-North Thompson, Stikine, Boundary-Similkameen) and one in the Vancouver suburbs (Maple Ridge-Mission). However, they are showing NDP losses in Vancouver (Fairview, False Creek) and Surrey-Panorama Ridge. Three NDP incumbent seats in suburban Vancouver are too close to call (Delta North, Surrey-Fleetwood, Coquitlam-Maillardville) and three Burnaby seats the NDP desperately needs to win are also too close to call.

This would generally seem to mirror the polling results which shows the NDP making major gains in the interior but slipping in the Lower Mainland.

Basement Dweller

TCTC 7

All those seven are in the Vancouver suburbs and three seats have NDP incumbents.

Thorne, Gentner and Brar.

As well, the Burnaby North seat would have gone NDP in 2005.

Seems like he sees the possibility of a razor thin Liberal majority.

Basement Dweller

So what would a one or two seat majority (for either party) be like in BC? Have we ever had something like that before?

I think it will be electric.

However, I suspect Milton Chan is a bit off on his picks.

Basement Dweller

munroe wrote:

Sorry, BD, but that is not what the record implies.  First, Harper is going through the motions.  Secondly, Gordo has already taken measures to meet the crisis by cutting and not stimulating.  In BC, the "Bennett solution", eliminating workers and destroying progress is already in the works. 

It is only a "socialist" agenda if socialism is understood to be for those who have and who control.  Cut taxes, eliminate programmes, cut payroll is his answer to the problem (with a tiny bit of deficit to do so on the side). 

We as people and the workers sho produce the wealth should never be conned by the "trinkle down", Friedman economics that are part of the root cause of the crisis.

Yeah, that's why I put socialist in quotes.

Call it what you want, but governments of every stripe will continue intervening more than ever and soon will be dreaming up all kinds of mega projects to get idle hands busy again.

Politics101

Ghoris - False Creek isn't really a loss as it is a new riding with no incumbent running and has been in the Liberal fold for a week or so.

Also there is no incumbent in Surrey Panorama as the sitting NDP member moved to a safer riding.

I didn't think Delta North would be a problem for the NDP but Campbell had a rally there today so perhaps that does means something is going on.

 

 

Frank_

NDP 44   Libs 41

But I expect the Libs to win the popular vote, therefore a repeat of 1996

 

I think James has some momentum and I don't think the Libs have any at all.  In fact, I wish the campaign had another week to go.

 

 

 

Policywonk

It'll be close, but more likely the other way. Unless the polls are wrong, the no side will suceed in defeating STV, but the question will be whether it gets enough to keep the issue alive. If it gets high 50s again there will be a debate within the NDP whether or not to bring it in, especially if we win the election.

ghoris

Politics101 wrote:

Ghoris - False Creek isn't really a loss as it is a new riding with no incumbent running and has been in the Liberal fold for a week or so.

Also there is no incumbent in Surrey Panorama as the sitting NDP member moved to a safer riding.

I didn't think Delta North would be a problem for the NDP but Campbell had a rally there today so perhaps that does means something is going on.

Fair enough - I treated those as nominal NDP 'losses' because they were carved out of existing ridings with NDP incumbents (being Vancouver-Burrard and Surrey-Panorama Ridge, respectively). Vancouver-False Creek is really more of a new seat, as you point out. Surrey-Panorama is not truly a 'new' seat, but the boundaries have changed significantly. Surrey-Fleetwood (where Brar moved) is really the 'new' riding in Surrey, being carved largely out of Surrey-Tynehead with bits and pieces from Surrey-Green Timbers, Surrey-Newton and Surrey-Cloverdale. Sounds like Brar's in a tough fight there.

I would have thought Gentner was pretty safe in North Delta but I agree it sounds like it's going to be tight.

Quote:
 I think James has some momentum and I don't think the Libs have any at all.  In fact, I wish the campaign had another week to go.

Heh - great minds think alike. My dad and I were discussing the election this evening (he's in Manitoba so is watching from afar) and I commented that the 'post mortem' in the papers after the election is likely to be that if the campaign had gone on for another week or even a few more days, the NDP probably would have won.

chuckstraight

We will be pleasantly surprised election night- the NDP will receive less popular vote- but will win a slight majority- Kamloops, Kootenay East, Vancouver Island, and Prince George will be the nail biters.

POWER TO THE PEOPLE

Stockholm

I wouldn't read too much into the fact that Campbell had a rally in Delta as meaning anything one way or another about the NDP's chances in North Delta - I think the Liberals are more worried about saving "Stonewally" Oppal in Delta South.

Debater

Is he the Attorney General of B.C.?  The one who can't seem to decide whether or not the RCMP officers involved in the taser death should be investigated?

Debater

{double post deleted}

robbie_dee

B.C. LIBERAL PARTY 42

NEW DEMOCRATS 42

INDEPENDENT 1

Debater

Adam T wrote:

It would be interesting to see (though I hope it doesn't occur) the political ramifications if the Vancouver Canucks lose on monday, one day before the election.  I understand an unhappy electorate is usually bad news for the incumbent party.

I'm curious - what's the reason that the election is on a Tuesday, and not a Monday?

Stockholm

Different provinces have election day on different days. In ontario, provincial elections are always on a Thursday.

Politics101

So they don't have to worry about it falling on the Victoria Day Monday and having to move it?

It's in the original legislation setting the fixed election date but I don't have it handy.

remind remind's picture

Record turnouts for advance  polling and  voter registration are very significant, and i would say have those who support the BC Liberals spinning on their "axis".

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