Alberta's political classes were abuzz last night with news of a credible new poll that shows the province's eternal Progressive Conservative government back in the driver's seat even before a replacement is found for retirement-bound Premier Ed Stelmach.
The results of the poll, conducted for a couple of local newspapers by Environics Research Group, also suggest that with support for both the far-right Wildrose Alliance and the Liberals imploding, and that for the NDP surfing a bit of a youth-powered Orange Wave, any of the three parties with seats in the Legislature could emerge as the Official Opposition after the next general election. The fledgling Alberta Party barely registered.
But any joy the two-MLA NDP might get from these results must be tempered by the fact that, with Conservative support at well over 50 per cent and the possibility of a three-way opposition split in many ridings high, the Tory edge is so overwhelming that the Orange Wave could easily turn into the Orange Crushed.
The poll of 900 Albertans conducted between July 15 and July 24, also sets the stage for an early fall election, since the post-Stelmach Conservatives are bound to want to take advantage of their astounding levels of support before Alberta voters get to know their new leader -- whomever he or she may turn out to be.
In addition, the poll results clearly show a Trend Research poll commissioned by pollster Janet Brown and political newsletter editor Paul McLoughlin in March was on the right track. That poll was bitterly denounced by the Wildrose Alliance, which released a survey of its own four days later on which the right-wing party made the claim it was within "striking distance" of the Conservatives. Pretty clearly, unless something changes dramatically, it is not.
In other words, for all the media fantasizing these past couple of years about the Wildrose Alliance coming out of right field to prompt generational change in Alberta politics, nothing of the sort is likely to happen.
Other probable interpretations of the Environics data include:
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- Albertans are uncomfortable with and distrustful of the Wildrose Alliance's far-right program of privatization and other doctrinaire market-fundamentalist nostrums, and will return to the safe old Conservatives unless given a strong reason not to vote for what they're used to.
- The Liberal brand has less and less allure for Alberta voters, notwithstanding the party's attempt to generate interest through a leadership race in which anyone can vote, whether or not they are a party member.
- Albertans' dissatisfaction with the Conservative Party was really just dissatisfaction with the leadership Ed Stelmach, who failed to connect with voters.
- It probably doesn't matter whom the Conservatives pick as leader -- if he or she runs a cautious campaign and "low bridges" it, the Tories could win an even bigger majority than they have now.
- Even with its collapsing support, with more money in the bank for advertisements and support concentrated in Calgary, the Wildrose Alliance could still emerge as the Opposition.
- With support concentrated around Edmonton and higher among young people, the NDP will improve its chances if it can get out the youth vote.
- If the Alberta Party is going to make any difference, it won't be in the next Alberta general election.
None of this is particularly good news for Opposition parties who had hoped to make big gains from sinking Tory fortunes, media companies who wanted to portray the contest with the Wildrose Alliance as a horserace, or members of the Alberta politerati who just wanted an election with a little excitement for once.
This post also appears on David Climenhaga's blog, Alberta Diary.
Given numbers like that, vote splits could work in the NDP's favour in Edmonton and they could end up as official opposition, albeit with a handful of seats.
A few points:
1) As the incumbent government, the PCs would naturally have the advantage in the polls. I would even go further to suggest that the leadership race helps them because there is no "face" of the party on which to pin the unpopularity of the PC party itself.
2) It seems as though the NDP is the only party in Alberta that has its act together, with the Liberals and PCs in leadership contests, the Alberta party not registring, and some of the Wildrose people returning to their PC fold. Puls the fact that I expect the Alberta NDP will receive the full co-operation of Linda Duncan in the coming campagin, which is an asset they didn't have in 2008. Plus, Climenhaga has noted before that only the NDP are effective at opposing the PCs.
3) As the federal election indicates, polls outside of an election are not always a reliable predictor. In the lead-up to the 2011 federal election, the consensus was that the NDP would lose seats. In the lead-up to 2005/2006 federal campaign, the Liberals held their lead going in. Puls during the campaign the government will have to defend itself.
4) This is a poll of voters and in Alberta there aren't that many. If you know that your constituency is going to go PC with well over 50% of the vote, why would you even bother paying attention? That's the real problem in Alberta. I imagine the PCs have topped out with the support they receive among the general public, but if the Opposition parties could somehow excite non-voters, you would have a completely different dynamic. It's not an accident that Edmonton-Strathcona had one of the highest voter turnouts in the federal campaigns of 2008 and 2011.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that a repetition of status quo divisive opposition voting in key ridings ensures the Alberta right wing yet another win. Yawn.
That supporters of centre-left parties (with more values in common than not) are persuaded by their partisan interests into voting for this asinine rivalry, election after election, is a tragedy of vast proportions. While I often find David's analysis of Alberta politics insightful, I am always disappointed that he has a blind spot when it comes to this point.