Finally -- after endless configurations of yet another way to produce a minority Conservative government -- there is light. Emergent and flickering, but a sign nonetheless that we are on a path to change.
The hopefulness is from the latest Harris Decima poll of more than 2,000 Canadians (a large sample). The Conservatives are reduced to 29%, the Liberals are at 27% and the NDP has risen to 20%. These numbers would put the Conservatives and Liberals in a virtual tie and give a large balance of power to the NDP.
Whether or not these results are replicated in the next round of surveys is beside the point. This survey stands out because it is the first recent research to find that change might be in the air, and in very rough terms, it describes what that could look like.
Some of the detail in this research that I found strategic for progressives suggests that the opposition parties should waste as little ammunition as possible on each other:
First, the progressive equation only works with the Bloc at commanding heights in Quebec. There is room for the NDP to pick up a seat, but Harper must be taken down in Quebec and the heavy lifting falls to the Bloc.
Second, the high numbers for the NDP are not generally at the expense of the Liberals, but come from Tory territory. In BC and the Prairies, it is PC vs NDP; the NDP-Liberal blood feud is confined mostly to southern Ontario. But even in Ontario, both the NDP and Liberals gained.
Finally, even the Greens win a seat in this scenario (in BC, i.e. Elizabeth May) while the NDP runs up record numbers in the West.
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Federal politics is starting to get interesting again.
A media note: It is a comment on the state of political reporting in the land that one of the more perceptive eyes on our body politic comes from a television reporter, the Globe’s John Doyle. This week he asked a question that I have asked a hundred times: how come so much of the political air time on Canadian television goes to right wing nuts like Ezra Levant? This week Levant attacked the CBC (on CBC, of course) over the Frank Graves/Ekos advice to start a “culture war” with the Harperites. Doyle says: “You want feisty, biting political punditry and insight on Canadian TV? Look to the right. Ignore the left, ignore the rest.”
Is the Canadian left really too dull for TV? Maybe he has a point. But why not test the thesis by actually having someone from the left appear on CBC or CTV?
Your media note is bang on.
During the prorogation,CTV Montreal hardly mentioned anything of it..And in fact,reported stories here and there as if the government was hard at work. CTV Montreal also didn't print a letter about the annual 420 demonstrations and CTV Montreal moaned about 'what's happening to free speech' when that lunatic American pundit,(who'll remain nameless),had to cancel one of her engagements to a crowd of knuckle dragging,mouth breathing bottom feeders.But not one word about George Galloway.
Let's not forget about Question Period's Craig Oliver and his side kick.They unapologetically have their lips pressed to the posterior of the Reform Party like a child's tongue on frozen metal.
Not to overlook that obese hog named Mike Duffy....It's controlled mass media...Turn on ANY open mouth radio show and listen to the paranoid rantings of these low lives.
NOBODY in the mass media(newspapers,televison and radio) is out there talking from a CENTRE platform,nevermind from the left.
This creates what they call a state of cognitive dissonance and is a fascist tactic that was perfected in the late 1930's.
I pray (even though I am a staunch atheist I pray in the hope that atleast KARMA exists) that these poll numbers are accurate and we freedom loving,peace loving,free thinking Canadians will be spared atleast 5 years of extreme right wing tyranny.
The poll in question has a 2.2% margin of error for cross-Canada total figures, and larger margins of error for provincial figures, because of the smaller size of the provincial samples.
Until there is some evidence of sustained political shift, I won't even begin to get excited.
The outcome of an election with these poll figures is still a minority Conservative government. Is that supposed to be progress?
For the NDP to be holding the "balance of power" means nothing if the Liberals are afraid of an election. The Liberals will contrive, as they have for the past four years, to keep the Conservatives in power. Harper won't need NDP support to survive - so no squeezing concessions out of him in return for NDP support.
That "flickering light" is the candle of democracy struggling to avoid being snuffed out.
M. Spector,
You're absolutely right..The poll shows yet another Reform Party minority if an election happened today..Hence,there is no progression in sight.
Yes,it's sad that people like myself are just happy that the Reform Party doesn't win a majority.
The problem I perceive is that the Reform Party has been in campaign mode since 2006.They saturate their logo on everything,including government cheques(though admittedly not on unemployment or GST cheques--yet)..They have been spending a ton of money having their 'Canada's Economic Action Plan' commercials played 1,000 times a day,not to mention putting this up predominately on any and every sign of any future building's site.
They have the media in their back pocket and this leads to alot of misinformed everyday Canadians who are not political and sit on the fence of political sides...I bet you the majority of Canadians don't know what prorogation is or what Canada's current foreign policies mean or the real face of the Reform Party's anti-crime legislation.
They cut the GST by 1% and have their media lackeys saturate 'information' touting how much money they are going to save,as Harpie's gang of minnions cuts your tax with one hand and cuts your civil liberties with the other...Your average Canadian saves nickels and dimes as the richest 1% get vastly richer and they couldn't care less.As long as the cost of beer remains affordable....
They actually cut the regressive GST by 2%, in two stages, and it was the only positive thing they have done in four years.
Progressives correctly denounced the GST when it was introduced, but most have now flip-flopped into believing that Mulroney's tax was a blessing that should be preserved for all time. I'm not among those.
Well,that 2% sales tax cut is not enough money for me to sell my soul..Oh,thanks Stephen for saving me enough money to buy 2 extra packs of smokes a month.