Stephen Harper has registered an important tactical victory yesterday. While maintaining his positions in most regions, he has made important headways into the urban bastions of the Liberals, notably in Ontario and BC. A few weeks back, when he was saying that he was hoping for another minority government, most people thought he was spinning. But probably he had calculated correctly that a victory for him in the present context meant progressing in the context of a protracted battle, a sort of war of positions. Mission accomplished, he can this morning. For sure, the conservative coalition is stronger, it consolidated itself in the eyes of the Toronto (big finance) – Calgary (big oil) elite who really desire to ‘restructure’ Canada away from Keynesianism, meaning interventionist state and manufactures. Lots of ‘middle classes’ are so angry with the dislocation of their lives over the last decade that they literally ‘hate’ the traditional (Keynesian) elites linked with the Liberals. Reactionary ‘blocks’ are on the rise in western province and central Quebec based on that same deep hate against what they perceived as en ‘enemy’, the public sector, artists, alternative lifestyles, etc. This is what happened in the US when the ‘hard republican right’ succeeded in capturing and organizing the descendant middle classes around ‘moral issues’ and ‘hate issues’.

The dislocation of the Liberals

All of this is possible of course because the historical ruling party is in disarray. Of course, it is easy to blame Stéphane Dion, but is it the only (and main) cause? The ‘grand coalition’ created after the war around Keynesianism is in terminal disease. The liberal elite was itself the main destroyer of this Keynesianism throughout the 1990s when they weakened the safety net, aligned with the US over NAFTA and refused to take meaningful steps to reorganize the economy in an eco friendly perspective. Sot it should not be a surprise to see middle and popular classes drifting away from the Liberals. This party is not going to re emerge rapidly.

The left promise that never came

Liberals could say, with a grain of truth, that they were defeated by the spreading out of the vote in favor of the NDP (which could say the same with the Greens). For sure, this is partially what explains the dominance of Harper, but is it the only reason? Why the NDP was unable to catch the discontent vote in southern Ontario, even in the industrial heartland like Oshawa? Is it not because it hsa inherited the legacy of provincial NDP governments who basically did like the liberals, ‘managing’ neoliberalism, giving it a ‘human face’? How can we explain the enormous number of people who did not vote, most probably from popular classes, if not by the disgust that ordinary folks have of ‘politics’ in general, and of big promises that never materialize in particular? Again it reminds us of the US where poor, blacks and youth have stopped voting because the Democrats have abandoned any pretense of doing differently than the hard right?

The catastrophe was avoided

With all of that depressing stuff, at least Harper has not been able to win the majority. However with his progression, he can rule ‘effectively’ without the fear of being defeated in the House, at least on the short term. We can expect more reactionary policies, more aggressivity, more contempt. In short, more bad news. What can slow down Harper is the forthcoming economic recession, not to say, the depression. Elites have already started to reorganize and ‘socialize’ their losses, dumping on popular and middle classes the legacy of their policies. It will be tough. Will people react? What will they do if Harper continues with the endless war that even Obama has promised to continue?

The Quebec Enigma

Without the anything-but-Harper mobilization, the situation today would be much worse. Let us not forget that. And it happened in Quebec where 75% of the population voted against Stephen. So yes, Gilles Duceppe is right, we did it. On the other hand, the Bloc’s victory was relative. It is a fact that the nationalist electorate is sliding. Like social liberals in the world, the PQ and the Bloc are caught between the rock and the hard place. Their right wing aspires at nothing else than winning the next election and they are convincing that they should turn right to win the ‘center’, which is a big illusion. Turning left is not evident either, because of the legacy of Lucien Bouchard and the discontent of social movements against the PQ. The nationalists are also threatened by a small but significant push from the NDP. One had to see former Liberal Minister Thomas Mulcair who was reelected for the NDP in Outremont celebrating the decline of the Nationalists, more than his own victory against the Conservatives! Federalist first, social democrat second, that’s the NDP in Quebec. It’s pathetic

Taking the initiative

Let us face it, it’s going to be a long haul. The left who could be happy with the difficulties of the NDP and the Nationalists in Quebec should think twice, because their decline does not bear well for us. The discontent of the popular classes is going right, not left. The elites are on the offensive. The dislocation of the working classes is rapidly progressing, undermining trade unions and social movements in manufacturing and the public sector, our traditional bastions. What to do then? I believe we have to really start thinking outside the box. At a first level, there is a need to go back in a way to the long march of organizing popular classes, especially this growing sector condemned to marginalization and poverty, mostly outside the safety net of Keynesianism and stable employment. These neo proletarians, so to speak, mostly immigrants, mostly women, mostly young, are one of the key for the rebirth of the left. Then I am repeating myself, the gap between Quebec and English Canada has to be challenged with social movements taking the lead. There is however a ‘price’ to pay in Canada for that, which is abandoning the old idea of the centralized and benevolent federal state. The left in Canada needs to make its own internal revolution, leaving behind its historical incapacity to understand the substance of national struggles and rights. All of this is very difficult but not impossible. To conclude, we have yesterday avoided the total and immediate catastrophe. It’s a sort of a victory. Let us capitalize on it to move further.

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Pierre Beaudet

Pierre was active in international solidarity and social movements in Quebec, and was the founder of Quebec NGO Alternatives, and Editor of the Nouveaux cahiers du socialisme. He blogged on rabble.ca in...