Where is the Canadian economy headed? The federal finance minister is on the road doing his pre-budget consultations. Expect Jim Flaherty to return with the same complacent views he proclaimed when he left Ottawa; the wording was drawn up for him months ago by the Prime Minister's Office. It reads: the recovery is on track and it is time to cut government spending.

The Harper script for the economy is all about politics and ideology. Liberals want to tax and spend. You can entrust your future to Stephen Harper; unlike Layton and Ignatieff, the Conservative leader will not raise taxes.

Is the world, including Canada, headed for the third Great Depression, as New York Times columnist Paul Krugman argues? Watching the results of the Toronto G8/G20 meetings was like hearing news that a giant comet is heading for earth and we are just waiting for impact. Those meetings of the world's largest and/or growing economies committed governments to massive deficit reduction in spite of the real concern that we are facing a the possibility of a so-called "double-dip" recession. That possibility is now a certainty.

By raising interest rates, the governor of the Bank of Canada has made a mistake. He got an easy question wrong. Is the economy expanding or contracting? He called it expansion, meaning output is growing, putting upward pressure on prices. The increase of 0.25 per cent in the overnight lending rate of the bank signals the beginning of a cycle of increases that will push all interest rates in Canada up over the next 18 months by as much as two percentage points.

World economic signs signal deflation meaning slower output, and faltering employment.

Inflation calls for interest rate increases, and government spending cuts. Deflation means no interest rate hikes, and government spending increases.