As predicted more than once in this space, a methodologically trustworthy public opinion poll has now been published that shows the Progressive Conservatives under Premier Alison Redford with the support of more than 50 per cent of the province's committed voters.

As argued here, even before the poll by Leger Marketing was reported in the Alberta media yesterday, numbers like this indicate the Redford Tories are on their way to another significant majority, as long as present trends continue.

What's with the recent buzz there's a private Conservative poll that shows NDP support surging in the Edmonton region?

Is this a real Orange Wave, or is it just hair dye?

Specifically, is it orange hair dye selectively applied by professional creators of new political realities? Or is it evidence of a verifiable trend finally reaching critical mass? Or a little of both?

Here's what is known and verifiable: At least eight political polls were conducted in Alberta in 2011, some of better quality than others. Together, they demonstrated the NDP to be on a gradual but steady upward trend in support province-wide. There are said to be a couple more private polls out there that show much the same thing.

No one can say the Alberta Liberals don't have movement. The trouble is, it's all downhill.

That the slow-motion implosion of the Alberta Liberal Party is gathering speed was evident on two fronts yesterday, as one of the party's veteran MLAs skedaddled for the government benches and a new poll by Environics Research Group confirmed the party is mired in third place among the province's opposition parties.

Quick! What's the name of Alberta’s No. 2 political party based on popular support?

The Wildrose Party, right?

That's certainly what the headline implied in the Edmonton Journal on Friday -- "Elections Alberta arms for X day, when main battle will be on the right." And that's what the headlines in any Alberta publication would likely say. That's because that's been the party line among Alberta's mainstream media for months.

A poll by conducted during the weekend that the Tories were selecting Alison Redford as their leader illustrates why Alberta voters should be extremely cautious with the inevitable media claims the next provincial election will be a titanic battle between two articulate and powerful women leaders.

Uh-oh! Someone's got some 'splainin' to do!

Yesterday morning's blog post on the strange circumstances surrounding the use of an Alberta Progressive Conservative Party membership list and a flurry of activity behind the scenes in Tory circles provoked a strong reaction late in the day by the party.

On the face of it, yesterday morning's surprising Edmonton Journal-Calgary Herald-Environics poll of which Alberta Conservative leadership candidates have the most support among their party's members seems like a brilliant journalistic coup.

It showed Gary Mar in the lead, but not by enough to capture the leadership on the first vote. Astonishingly, Alison Redford was in second place, possibly poised to win on the second ballot. Steady old Doug Horner came third. And Ted Morton, the leading candidate of the right, was fading into the distance. What a terrific yarn!

Wouldn't it be ironic if one of the reasons the New Democratic Party and its leader Jack Layton have been doing so well the past few days of this election campaign is the months of ugly negative advertising Prime Minister Stephen Harper's so-called Conservative party has devoted to destroying Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff?

This observation is not meant to detract from Layton's terrific, at times inspiring, performance in two debates and on the campaign trail. Nor is it a denial of the fact that the NDP platform is genuinely closer to what Canadians describe repeatedly in non-partisan polling between elections as the policy mix they truly desire.

Obviously, the NDP's campaign could not have caught fire without such positive factors in its favour.

The story so far:

Feisty upstart right-wing party leads in polls;
is set to unseat plummeting Conservatives

This, at any rate, is how Alberta's mainstream media have been portraying the contest between the Alberta Conservatives of Premier Ed Stelmach and the Wildrose Alliance party led by former journalist and Fraser Institute apparatchik Danielle Smith. For weeks in Alberta, you couldn't read a story on the topic without being reminded that the far-right Alliance was "leading the government in public opinion polls across the province."

The release of a reputable Environics poll yesterday shows Ed Stelmach's Alberta Conservatives are still ahead of the Wildrose Alliance party, if only by a nose.

Does this mean Alberta's media -- which loves a horserace, even at the expense of accuracy -- will stop saying the far-right Alliance led by former journalist Danielle Smith "is leading the government in public opinion polls across the province"? After all, until yesterday there'd only been one poll that put the Wildrose Alliance is in the lead, and it was based on controversial methodology.