There has recently been a renewed interest in the question of whether the ecological crisis means we need to see (or plan for) a stabilization or even a decline in economic growth. This week there is a major conference on degrowth in Montreal. York University's Peter Victor has made important contributions to this debate in his book Managing Without Growth, as has Tim Jackson in his report for the U.K.'s Sustainable Development Commission entitled Prosperity Without Growth?. There is a burgeoning literature on this topic.

StatsCan have produced interesting and important new estimates of the upper-bound size of the "underground" or "non observed" economy, putting it at a seemingly modest 2.2 per cent of GDP in 2008. (Some of this is already included in GDP which is adjusted to take into account some hidden and unreported economic activity.)

The 2.2 per cent estimate shows that we are a reasonably law-abiding country, but it is important to note that it excludes some major areas of illegal activity, such as the drug trade and prostitution.

Machiavelli has nothing on these guys. Let's deconstruct for a moment the central message of today's 2011 Federal Budget, Take two: "Storm clouds are gathering in the world economy. We must rush to get our fiscal house in order, lest we be struck by another tempest. We will advance our own ambitious timetable for balancing the budget by a full year. But to do that, we must review all our programs, to find operational savings of $4 billion per year (or 5 per cent of the cost of running government). That's the kind of thing the private sector does all the time, and we will bring private sector discipline to the task."

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty was unusually blunt on CTV's Question Period yesterday, saying he was worried about the possibility of another recession. (Finance Ministers are usually very cautious about using the "r" word, for fear that might worry consumers and bring about a self-fulfilling prophecy.) Maybe he had already seen today's quarterly GDP numbers from Statistics Canada, which give lots of reason to worry -- once you start poking around in the tea leaves.

The headline number seems healthy: real GDP growth of 3.9% (annualized) in the quarter. It doesn't take much investigation, however, to take the shine off that seemingly robust number.