As goes California, so goes the nation -- the nation in the normal scheme of things being what the world knows as the Good Ole U.S.A.

For many practical reasons that all of us instinctively understand up here north of the 49th Parallel, and even in those parts of Canada south of the 49th, as goes California, so goes Canada too.

I refer, of course, to the steep downward spiral in which the Republican Party finds itself in that large and populous West Coast state -- a place big enough to be a leading nation all on its own and home, arguably to the American image, if not the American soul.

In the Republicans' troubles in California, it is said here, we see a reflection of the coming decline of Canada's Conservatives under Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Nowadays, folks think of Preston Manning as a benign force in Canadian politics -- possibly because of his scratchy voice and grandfatherly demeanour, and partly because on a personal level he is most certainly an honourable person.

This is a dangerous misunderstanding.

It's worth remembering that while the former Reform Party of Canada leader may not be a sinner, he is certainly no saint, as the media echo chamber here in Alberta would like to lead us to believe.

Happy Alberta Day!

Whoops, I meant Canada Day. Sorry.

Same difference, though. As any astute observer can see clearly, the Albertanization of Canada continues apace under the heavy hand of transplanted Ontarian Stephen Harper's Revised and Reactive Reform Party of Canada, or whatever their focus groups have them calling themselves this year.

It's the Conservative Party of Canada at the moment, I think, a moniker that must have that great Canadian patriot John A. Macdonald, founder of a party with a somewhat similar name, spinning in his grave fast enough to send up puffs of smoke.

It's too late for televised accusations of "blind ambition" to stop the momentum of the New Democratic Party.

It's too late for plaintive calls to cost out NDP proposals, which Canadians pretty obviously like, to have much effect.

Jack Layton and the New Democratic Party may be on the cusp of a historic breakthrough in tomorrow's federal election, or they may face a bitter disappointment like that experienced by former NDP leader Ed Broadbent in 1988.

Whatever happens, the decision will be made one by one by Canadians in the privacy of a polling booth. Habits, instincts, intuition, loyalties, distrust of traditional right-wing parties and desire for change will all play a role.