Winnipeg mayoral races are typically a cake walk for the incumbent. The only sitting mayor who has been pushed out since Bill Norrie was the deeply and justifiably unpopular Susan Thompson, elected in 1992, who was forced to the side because of overwhelming popular feeling against her.
According to the most recent local poll this election, between incumbent Sam Katz and former NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis, is pretty much a dead heat. If Katz does fail to get re-elected he will have only have his lack of vision to blame.